Ryan Ellis or Morgan Rielly?

Ryan Ellis or Morgan Rielly?


  • Total voters
    239

lomiller1

Registered User
Jan 13, 2015
6,409
2,966
Rielly should be winning this
Rielly should have almost no votes. 5v5 he's basically a replacement level D-man (@EvolvingWild model) He's good offensively but gives up just as much on the other end. Ellis is outperforms him at his strength (offensive hockey) and is much better at nearly everything else.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Rielly should have almost no votes. 5v5 he's basically a replacement level D-man (@EvolvingWild model) He's good offensively but gives up just as much on the other end. Ellis is outperforms him at his strength (offensive hockey) and is much better at nearly everything else.

giphy.webp
 

Critical13

Fear is the mind-killer.
Feb 25, 2017
12,617
9,435
Sitting at a desk.
gimme a quick summary.

Basically that Babs throws his lower pairing defencemen out at the ends of the top line comp shifts when they are least at danger, and how this affects Reilly and Hainsey's numbers (by far playing the hardest minutes on the Leafs) negatively. Had an interesting example where they played a shift against Philly's top line, changed while Philly's top line was still, then the new pairing, who didn't touch the puck got the stat boost when they scored against top competitive and generated shots. Split competition up by line, and also top 6 and bottom 6 comp usage. It also had a section that showed how Dermott is basically good against everyone.

Mo is a horse, I don't think too many players play harder minutes with less support than him. One day he will get some credit.
 
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Lemontree

Fire Dubas
Feb 12, 2018
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Basically that Babs throws his lower pairing defencemen out at the ends of the top line comp shifts when they are least at danger, and how this affects Reilly and Hainsey's numbers (by far playing the hardest minutes on the Leafs) negatively. Had an interesting example where they played a shift against Philly's top line, changed while Philly's top line was still, then the new pairing, who didn't touch the puck got the stat boost when they scored against top competitive and generated shots. Split competition up by line, and also top 6 and bottom 6 comp usage. It also had a section that showed how Dermott is basically good against everyone.

Mo is a horse, I don't think too many players play harder minutes with less support than him. One day he will get some credit.

In NHL circles he is starting to get credit league wide, with all the "knowledgeable" fans that post on HF. He will not receive credit unless he puts on another jersey.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
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Basically that Babs throws his lower pairing defencemen out at the ends of the top line comp shifts when they are least at danger, and how this affects Reilly and Hainsey's numbers (by far playing the hardest minutes on the Leafs) negatively. Had an interesting example where they played a shift against Philly's top line, changed while Philly's top line was still, then the new pairing, who didn't touch the puck got the stat boost when they scored against top competitive and generated shots. Split competition up by line, and also top 6 and bottom 6 comp usage. It also had a section that showed how Dermott is basically good against everyone.

Mo is a horse, I don't think too many players play harder minutes with less support than him. One day he will get some credit.

slowly but surely the analytics community is swallowing their pride and starting to take quality of competition seriously.

it's great news. it's the final missing piece they need to figure out to get to the point where we have some universally accepted stats that so obviously do a good job of assessing players that people stop bothering to argue they're stoopid, and start trusting them.

and yeah, Babcock is the most extreme line matcher (over-coacher?) in the league, and it really makes it tough for his top players to put up the topline numbers that other top players do. then again, the leafs have been winning a lot, so maybe it makes sense. Personally, I think babs should relax a bit and just let his best players play more ---- especially in the big games, like in the playoffs. I bet the leafs would be much better off, and a nice side effect would be that the top players would start putting up prettier superficial stats, too.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
In NHL circles he is starting to get credit league wide, with all the "knowledgeable" fans that post on HF. He will not receive credit unless he puts on another jersey.

tbh, within NHL circles, he's always had that credit.

That's why he has already been the #1 dman on Team Canada at the world champs, and the #1 dman on Team North America at the world cup.

it's just fans who can't get past point and plus minus (with a nice boost from an analytics community that refused to admit competition mattered), that have hurt his more public reputation.
 

Adtar02

@NateThompson44 is a bum
Apr 8, 2012
4,878
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some players get abused against tough competition, some don't.

Here's the top 10 toughest competition dmen the last 2yrs, and their offensive and possession stats at even strength:

1.Vlasic: .94p/60, .58p1/60, 49.2cf% (-3.3rel), 51.6xgf% (-1.1rel) ------ linemates' cf%: 50.8%
2.Braun: .80p/60, .48p1/60, 47.4cf% (-6.0rel), 50.7xgf% (-2.7rel) ---- linemates' cf%: 54.0%
3.Rielly: .97p/60, .75p1/60, 51.3cf% (+1.0rel), 50.3xgf% (-0.9rel) ----- linemates cf%: 49.7%
4.Keith: .91p/60, .34p1/60, 50.8cf% (-0.8rel), 47.6xgf% (-2.8rel) ------ linemates cf%: 51.5%
5.Letang: 1.0p/60, .37p1/60, 54.3cf% (+4.3rel), 54.3xgf% (+2.1rel) --- linemates cf%: 49.9%
6.Giordano: .92p/60, .52p1/60, 55.3cf% (+5.4rel), 54.5xgf% (+6.2rel) - linemates cf%: 50.9%
7.Dumoulin: .59p/60, .38p1/60, 52.2cf% (+1.8rel), 51.9xgf% (-0.5rel) - linemates cf%: 50.7%
8.Hainsey: .62p/60, .40p1/60, 48.8cf% (-2.3rel), 50.9xgf% (+0.2rel) --- linemates cf%: 50.7%
9.Chara: .92p/60, .59p1/60, 53.5cf% (-1.2rel), 53.9xgf% (-0.3rel) ------ linemates cf%: 54.5%
10.Slavin: .97p/60, .60p1/60, 53.7cf% (+2.4rel), 55.2xgf% (+5.1rel) --- linemates cf%: 51.4%

So not only is Rielly the best offensive producer of the bunch, but he's also either 4th or 5th best possesion wise despite having the weakest teammate support. So yeah, that sure seems like the opposite of being abused. "thriving' would be a more apt descriptor, I think.

You can see that some unsurprising guys do get abused in this usage - like Hainsey and Braun, both of whom are solid dmen, but should never be getting elite usage like this.

and then we can look just at last year:

1.Vlasic: .95p/60, .49p1/60, 49.0cf% (-3.0rel), 51.2xgf% (-1.2rel) ---- linemates cf%: 50.3%
2.Braun: 1.18p/60, .74p1/60, 46.7cf% (-7.0rel), 49.2xgf% (-5.2rel) -- linemates cf%: 54.1%
3.Hainsy: .70p/60, .39p1/60, 48.4cf% (-3.1rel), 49.5xgf% (-2.2rel) -- linemates cf%: 52.0%
4.Schmidt: .85p/60, .53p1/60, 51.0cf% (-0.9rel), 50.1xgf% (-2.4rel) - linemates cf%: 51.1%
5.Yandle: 1.22p/60, .69p1/60, 48.7cf% (-1.3rel), 47.7xgf% (-2.3rel) -- linemates cf%: 51.0%
6.Doughty: 1.01p/60, .61p1/60, 53.0cf% (+4.9rel), 51.2xgf% (+5.3rel) - linemates cf%: 48.7%
7.Rielly: 1.04p/60, .82p1/60, 51.5cf% (+1.8rel), 50.5xgf% (-0.5rel) --- linemates cf%: 49.0%
8.Ekblad: .93p/60, .56p1/60, 48.6cf% (-1.4rel), 47.1xgf% (-3.3rel) ---- linemates cf%: 51.6%
9.Daley: .56p/60, .42p1/60, 46.4cf% (-3.6rel), 46.9xgf% (-3.1rel) ----- linemates cf%: 50.5%
10.Dumoulin: .69p/60, .47p1/60, 53.3cf% (+2.4rel), 53.8xgf% (+2.5rel) - linemates cf%: 51.6%

This one is even more stark - Rielly is still the best offensive producer, but now the clearcut 3rd best possession guy here, despite having the 2nd worst support.

Also, again, you can see the guys who are in way over their heads in this kind of usage - Hainsey, Braun, Daley - solid guys who simply shouldn't be used in this kind of elite usage role.

P.S. Doughty is a fricken beast.
are you using adjusted stats for this cause that doesnt show what happened. Its to show how players would have done.
 

WetcoastOrca

Registered User
Jun 3, 2011
38,142
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Vancouver, BC
Both somewhat overrated on HF as nether plays the big minutes in all situations that you expect from the better number ones. I went with Ellis but it’s very close.
 

wintersej

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Nov 26, 2011
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tbh, within NHL circles, he's always had that credit.

That's why he has already been the #1 dman on Team Canada at the world champs, and the #1 dman on Team North America at the world cup.

it's just fans who can't get past point and plus minus (with a nice boost from an analytics community that refused to admit competition mattered), that have hurt his more public reputation.

It always blew my mind when very smart people would just say the QoC didn't matter because they didn't have the tools to measure it well. We still don't, really, but at least seeing that player X plays more against players that get first line minutes is a big help.

Regarding Rielly... he does play tough tough minutes.

But, he also does just "ok" with those deployments. There is some projecting going on with how he would do with more help or under less water. If you are a Leafs fan that projecting feels justified... if you are not a Leafs fan it can be muddy.

The truly best don't need those qualifiers and projections, although no one is arguing that Rielly is one of those.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
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It always blew my mind when very smart people would just say the QoC didn't matter because they didn't have the tools to measure it well. We still don't, really, but at least seeing that player X plays more against players that get first line minutes is a big help.

Regarding Rielly... he does play tough tough minutes.

But, he also does just "ok" with those deployments. There is some projecting going on with how he would do with more help or under less water. If you are a Leafs fan that projecting feels justified... if you are not a Leafs fan it can be muddy.

The truly best don't need those qualifiers and projections, although no one is arguing that Rielly is one of those.

he does much better than Ok, imo, as I showed above.

moreover, there are many dmen who do "just OK" against far lesser competition, and yet still get rated far more highly than Rielly.
 

wintersej

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he does much better than Ok, imo, as I showed above.

moreover, there are many dmen who do "just OK" against far lesser competition, and yet still get rated far more highly than Rielly.

I'm curious what definition you used for "toughest competition". Its not QoC TOI, QoC CF...
 

Spilot23

Registered User
Dec 30, 2014
5,644
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I would take Rielly with only based on our team needs. But with EJ's health you're never sure damn can't wait for Makar to come in.

Rielly/Zadorov-EJ
Rielly/Zadorov-Barrie
Girard-Cole/Nemeth

That would be a good group of defensemen this year and future as well when Makar and Timmins step in.
 

major major

Registered User
Feb 18, 2013
14,598
1,669
Can always count on Zeke to give Rielly credit for getting abused against tough competition.

Ellis but it's close

People used to say the same thing in defense of Jack Johnson, that he played the most minutes against the hardest competition. It reminds me of the old joke, "the food is disgusting, and what's worse is that the portions are so small!" If the food isn't good, then ideally you should have less of it.

he doesn't get abused, so there's that

Not so much lately, no. His goals against per 60 has come down from league worst levels. 2.67 GA/60 is still too high, higher than any Toronto or Nashville regular. Ideally you want to give shutdown minutes to the guys that are good at keeping the other team from scoring.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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OIC you are also using 3 on 3 and 4 on 4.

yes. even strength.

though the 5v5 numbers are barely different. a couple guys jump up a bit who don't play 4v4 and 3v3 much, like Chara, but Rielly is still right up there at the top, and I don't see why playing well 4v4 and 3v3 should be held against him anyways.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
I would take Rielly with only based on our team needs. But with EJ's health you're never sure damn can't wait for Makar to come in.

Rielly/Zadorov-EJ
Rielly/Zadorov-Barrie
Girard-Cole/Nemeth

That would be a good group of defensemen this year and future as well when Makar and Timmins step in.

hey I'll take "injured old" EJ off your hands!
 

Connor McConnor

Registered User
Nov 22, 2017
5,243
6,011
I think Ellis right now but based on Morgan's big step up last year that edge probably won't last for long. I see Ellis' as having plateaued whereas Morgan should continue to get better. I also think his peak is higher. So Morgan for me.
 

Connor McConnor

Registered User
Nov 22, 2017
5,243
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I would take Rielly with only based on our team needs. But with EJ's health you're never sure damn can't wait for Makar to come in.

Rielly/Zadorov-EJ
Rielly/Zadorov-Barrie
Girard-Cole/Nemeth

That would be a good group of defensemen this year and future as well when Makar and Timmins step in.

Reilly + Barrie would be a defensive nightmare.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
People used to say the same thing in defense of Jack Johnson, that he played the most minutes against the hardest competition. It reminds me of the old joke, "the food is disgusting, and what's worse is that the portions are so small!" If the food isn't good, then ideally you should have less of it.

JJ never got super tough competition, but he did get kinda-tough borderline 1st/2nd line competition for a few years.

the difference is that JJ got absolutely buried in that kinda-tough-but-nowhere-near-elite-boderline 1st/2nd-line-competition

Yr1: A- qoc, -8.6cfrel, -8.6xgrel
Yr2: B+ qoc, -6.6cfrel, -7.0xgfrel
Yr3: B+ qoc, -3.1cfrel, -7.0xgfrel
Yr4: A- qoc, -5.6cfrel, -7.0xgfrel
Yr5: A- qoc, -5.4cfrel, -5.9xgfrel
Yr6: A- qoc, -3.5cfrel, -10.0xgfrel
Yr7: A- qoc, -2.1cfrel, -0.7xgfrel
1st 7: A-qoc, -5.0cfrel, -6.3xgfrel

Just a disaster. This is a great example of a guy getting buried against too-tough competition - though, that being said, his competition is nowhere near what Rielly is getting. (And Rielly is actually doing well in those minutes.)

Year 7 was his first actual full healthy year with the BJs, and to their credit they realized he wasn't the kind of dman they thought they were getting, and he was finally shifted down to an easier role and wasn't quite as disastrous after that:

Yr8: B qoc, +0.9cfrel, +1.4xgfrel
Yr9: B+ qoc, -3.2cfrel, -1.6xgfrel
Yr10: B qoc, +0.0cfrel, +3.8xgfrel
Yr11: B- qoc, -4.3cfrel, -4.9xgfrel
Last 4: B qoc, -2.3cfrel, -0.2xgfrel

He was actually decent once they put him down into softer usage....well, he was until last year at least, when he completely fell off a cliff even against the easiest competition of his career.
 

Spilot23

Registered User
Dec 30, 2014
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hey I'll take "injured old" EJ off your hands!
We can trade you EJ when Makar is ready to step in :thumbu: I would miss his leadership though and he seems to be the heart and soul of our team along with Landy.
 
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