Rumor: Rumours & Proposals Thread | Looking Ahead, Navigating a $81.5M Landscape

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

It's an interesting proposal for the Oilers to back load contracts and allow their players to save on escrow given their financial advantages over most clubs. What I'm gathering you are suggesting is by offering RFA's most of their money in latter years they pay far less in escrow and take home more of their salary over the term. It's also advantageous as it also benefits them by giving them a higher QO and leverage in subsequent negotiations. The Oilers obviously gain cap advantages in return.

If I got that all right then there is tremendous incentive for players to accept such deals, as such the Oilers could also theoretically convince a guy like Athanasiou to take less than his QO on a 3 year term. If the Oilers offered a 3 year term with a cap hit of 2.5, a number i'd suspect he'd garner on a 1 year deal as a UFA, by back loading the deal Athanasiou could potentially make similar money than he would signing his QO for each subsequent season. For example if they offered him 1-2-4.5 he'd make 1.21-1.17 less than he would on a 3 year deal worth 9 million of equal distribution given the amount he'd save in escrow. It would break down like thi


So by taking less than his QO he would benefit from a higher QO on his next deal when the cap rises and gain some financial security during a tenuous time while coming off a poor year. I really hope the Oilers go this route, it would be advantageous for every one and there's not that much risk IMO paying Athanasiou 2.5 million per as it would be likely be a very movable deal even if he isn't great given his age and pedigree. Of course Athanasiou could bet on himself and hope he has a big year to garner a bigger caphit than his QO but it's doubtful given his RFA status and recent poor season that he could parlay that into much more than a 4 million dollar 1-2 year deal IMO and that wouldn't be a massive upgrade in salary to accept the potential risk of being a UFA during a flat cap. Good point Fourier.

Edit: Some really poor math. lol. I was too hasty.

I don’t know if it’s been said but with the new CBA, QO on new contracts is the average value of the contract and not the final year of the contract.

So for example a 3 year deal at 3, 3, 9 the QO would be 5.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Any chance of buyouts due to the coronavirus situation?

If you mean amnesty buyouts in the new CBA, no.

 

[BarDownBobo]

This is nothing but pure speculation but I get the feeling the cap will take care of itself. Aka Nurse will walk after being gifted a premium contract to UFA status.

I just get the feeling Nurse thinks he is way better than he is. Don't get me wrong. I'm a fan and think he is going to get better and be at least a solid top 3 defender throughout his career... but I think he sees himself as an elite talent rather than an above average to good talent to date.

His new deal is so player friendly it reeks of him wanting a huge payday and Holland just doing his best to keep him on the team.

I dunno if they can afford to let him walk for free but I do wonder if there’s a succession plan in place when it comes to the LHDs. If Jones continues to progress and shows well as an NHL regular next season I wonder if they look at moving Nurse out next summer. Jones would hopefully be able to step up and take the second pairing job, and they’ll have Broberg and Samorukov coming over from Europe to hopefully have one of them fill the third pairing role. If Jones can’t keep progressing though I don’t think it’s something that could be considered.

 

[Samus44]

Nurse and bear were struggling heavily near the end.

Fair point but having Klefbom out and Nurse playing absurd minutes was a big part of it. They were also being leaned on for matchups even more heavily. The whole team outside of Nuge-Drai-Yamo and the goalies wasn't doing too shit hot either iirc.

 

[Mr Positive]

I dunno if they can afford to let him walk for free but I do wonder if there’s a succession plan in place when it comes to the LHDs. If Jones continues to progress and shows well as an NHL regular next season I wonder if they look at moving Nurse out next summer. Jones would hopefully be able to step up and take the second pairing job, and they’ll have Broberg and Samorukov coming over from Europe to hopefully have one of them fill the third pairing role. If Jones can’t keep progressing though I don’t think it’s something that could be considered.

We can afford to have Nurse walk if other D develop. Jones, Broberg, Samurukov, etc. Good teams can let good players go occasionally

 

[Samus44]

I don’t know if it’s been said but with the new CBA, QO on new contracts is the average value of the contract and not the final year of the contract.

So for example a 3 year deal at 3, 3, 9 the QO would be 5.

Ah, I remember reading that now. Obviously less enticing for him then but my point was still that perhaps they could use the lowering rate of escrow and less cap dollars available as a whole to their advantage when negotiating with RFA's. The reality is guys like Athanasiou can't be too confident in going to UFA if they are asked to negotiate down from their QO, so hopefully the Oilers can use all that to their advantage.

 

[Samus44]

We can afford to have Nurse walk if other D develop. Jones, Broberg, Samurukov, etc. Good teams can let good players go occasionally

Not top 3 dmen coming into their prime years. The Oilers don't have the farm depth outside of D to be letting core talent leave. If Nurse and the Oilers can't come to a deal then they really ought to move him. The assets on D are hugely important for addressing other areas of need and a young scoring forward or high pick is a big need.

 

[BarDownBobo]

We can afford to have Nurse walk if other D develop. Jones, Broberg, Samurukov, etc. Good teams can let good players go occasionally

Fair, I guess I’d just more or less prefer they pull a deal similar to the Faulk trade if it’s possible. Would give the team a better shot at long term success if they can keep some asset value in the system.

 

[T-Funk]

Yikes. I have my own complaints about Nurse, but if he ever leaves, we need to be getting assets for him. We've had years to do so. Why were we waiting so patiently for his hockey sense to catch up to his skillset.

 

[Mr Positive]

Not top 3 dmen coming into their prime years. The Oilers don't have the farm depth outside of D to be letting core talent leave. If Nurse and the Oilers can't come to a deal then they really ought to move him. The assets on D are hugely important for addressing other areas of need and a young scoring forward or high pick is a big need.

Washington won the cup after tossing Forsberg for nothing. The Hawks won a couple after letting all their key depth walk. Byfuglien, Ladd, and more. In a cap world it is not a huge deal. You just have to draft and develop. If we need to keep every player at all costs, because we are unable to supplement with youth and good signings, then we have no business fighting for the cup. We can do it

 

[T-Funk]

wtf delete

 

[Mr Positive]

Yikes. I have my own complaints about Nurse, but if he ever leaves, we need to be getting assets for him. We've had years to do so.

Getting assets for every player is not important either. If Nurse weren't an Oiler we would pay to trade for him as a playoff rental. If we're a better team that wins in the playoffs we will start attracting better players on better contracts. We dont need to guard every shred of value like we did in the past, as if it will never come back. It's on Nurse and other players to re sign for a little less and get to enjoy playing with McDavid and Draisiaitl

 

[T-Funk]

Getting assets for every player is not important either. If Nurse weren't an Oiler we would pay to trade for him as a playoff rental. If we're a better team that wins in the playoffs we will start attracting better players on better contracts. We dont need to guard every shred of value like we did in the past, as if it will never come back. It's on Nurse and other players to re sign for a little less and get to enjoy playing with McDavid and Draisiaitl

When have the Oilers ever guarded value in the last 10 years? If we plan on letting Nurse walk, I would trade him October....whenever we can. I don't want to if his next contracts are going to be reasonable and based on his ACTUAL proven ability as a dman. If we don't care about assets or guarding every shred of value, toss that 1st rounder up to the highest bidder too.

 

[Samus44]

Washington won the cup after tossing Forsberg for nothing. The Hawks won a couple after letting all their key depth walk. Byfuglien, Ladd, and more. In a cap world it is not a huge deal. You just have to draft and develop. If we need to keep every player at all costs, because we are unable to supplement with youth and good signings, then we have no business fighting for the cup. We can do it

Washington and Chicago had way more depth and the ability to attract key UFA's. Edmonton hasn't won multiple Presidents Trophy's.

 

[McTonyBrar]

We can afford to have Nurse walk if other D develop. Jones, Broberg, Samurukov, etc. Good teams can let good players go occasionally

Lol if we let go Nurse after this season then we are royally screwed. I hope your thinking of doing this maybe 2-3 years down the road

 

[McTonyBrar]

Yikes. I have my own complaints about Nurse, but if he ever leaves, we need to be getting assets for him. We've had years to do so. Why were we waiting so patiently for his hockey sense to catch up to his skillset.

Wait but what is wrong with his hockey IQ. Last 3 seasons, he's had 28 points, then 41 points and this year 33 on pace for 40..

 

[Mr Positive]

Lol if we let go Nurse after this season then we are royally screwed. I hope your thinking of doing this maybe 2-3 years down the road

Well yes I responding to a guy who said we might bridge Nurse to UFA

 

[McTonyBrar]

Well yes I responding to a guy who said we might bridge Nurse to UFA

My bad. I didn't read the post

 

[T-Funk]

Wait but what is wrong with his hockey IQ. Last 3 seasons, he's had 28 points, then 41 points and this year 33 on pace for 40..

He regularly makes some incredibly stupid decisions on the ice still. He also makes some great ones and puts up points occasionally. People want to see Nurse as a #1/#2 and pay him as such, but I think he'll remain a very good #3 forever.

 

[McTonyBrar]

He regularly makes some incredibly stupid decisions on the ice still. He also makes some great ones and puts up points occasionally. People want to see Nurse as a #1/#2 and pay him as such, but I think he'll remain a very good #3 forever.

I've always seen him as a #2 at his best and a #3-4 at his worst. Maybe that's why I'm a big fan of his. Even when we drafted him, you can tell his play style is not one of a #1 Dman. One thing that has surprised me in a good way is his point production. I thought he would be a 20-25 pts defensive dman but he's becoming a decent two way dman

 

[Fourier]

It's an interesting proposal for the Oilers to back load contracts and allow their players to save on escrow given their financial advantages over most clubs. What I'm gathering you are suggesting is by offering RFA's most of their money in latter years they pay far less in escrow and take home more of their salary over the term. It's also advantageous as it also benefits them by giving them a higher QO and leverage in subsequent negotiations. The Oilers obviously gain cap advantages in return.

If I got that all right then there is tremendous incentive for players to accept such deals, as such the Oilers could also theoretically convince a guy like Athanasiou to take less than his QO on a 3 year term. If the Oilers offered a 3 year term with a cap hit of 2.5, a number i'd suspect he'd garner on a 1 year deal as a UFA, by back loading the deal Athanasiou could potentially make similar money than he would signing his QO for each subsequent season. For example if they offered him 1-2-4.5 he'd make 1.21-1.17 less than he would on a 3 year deal worth 9 million of equal distribution given the amount he'd save in escrow. It would break down like thi


So by taking less than his QO he would benefit from a higher QO on his next deal when the cap rises and gain some financial security during a tenuous time while coming off a poor year. I really hope the Oilers go this route, it would be advantageous for every one and there's not that much risk IMO paying Athanasiou 2.5 million per as it would be likely be a very movable deal even if he isn't great given his age and pedigree. Of course Athanasiou could bet on himself and hope he has a big year to garner a bigger caphit than his QO but it's doubtful given his RFA status and recent poor season that he could parlay that into much more than a 4 million dollar 1-2 year deal IMO and that wouldn't be a massive upgrade in salary to accept the potential risk of being a UFA during a flat cap. Good point Fourier.

Edit: Some really poor math. lol. I was too hasty.

The principal is correct but the specific contract you are suggesting is actually not legal. There are rules for backloaded deals that restrict how much a contract can vary year to year. The rule here is that year to year salaries cannot increase by more than the lesser of the first two years. For Bear, if you are confident that he is going to be the player he seems to be try 1.6, 2, 3.2. That is a 3 year deal at $2.27M. At 26 he would still be an RFA at the end of this deal. By giving him maximum signing bonuses and with escrow savings this could be more like the 3 year $2.5M deal @belair suggested with the attraction of the $3.2M QO at the end of the deal. though under the new deal the QO is actually $2.5M. Thatat said the last year salary sets a negotiating point that favours Bear.

I'd do something similar with Nuge as well, but on an 8 year deal. The following is an 8 year deal at $6.75 M which has the first 6 years at $7.5M.

4, 7, 10, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4

The heavy escrow hits should come in year 1 and possibly to a lesser degree in year 2. You can also make this a signing bonus heavy deal. This could make it more like 6 year $7.75M deal built within an 8 year $7M deal.

For someone like Hall try

4,6,9,11,9.5,8,6

Again, Hall is just a hypothetical to show that the money can work.

That's 7 years at $7.64M. Structuring the deal this way with bonuses could make it more like 7 years at $8M with the first 5 at $8.2M.

 

[Fourier]

I don't disagree that you need to make smart adds here and there, but it's difficult to hit on them constantly. We've gotten lucky with adds like Maroon and Chiasson, but they're tough to spot.

A big part of the lower end of that roster is going to have to be internally developed guys. Guys on ELCs.

Of course all teams build with their own guys on ELC's. But the roles you are filling are ones that are much easier to develop than if you need to find a high end skill guy. Guys like McLeod and Benson have very good chances of being solid bottom six players. You may also get lucky and two years down the road a kid like Lavoie can play on McDavid's RW and Kassian becomes a 3rd liner. Who knows maybe its JP with a change of heart who becomes one of your top 9 on a short cheap deal. They have a ton of promising young defencemen they could flip for similar forward prospects.

The point is that the Oilers have more flexibility than it might seem to made a big money move IF the right deal is there. That may not be signing a Taylor Hall. It could be a trade that no one has thought of.

 

[Skolman]

Delete

 

[Fourier]

I don’t know if it’s been said but with the new CBA, QO on new contracts is the average value of the contract and not the final year of the contract.

So for example a 3 year deal at 3, 3, 9 the QO would be 5.

You are almost correct! It is 120% of the cap value in this case. But that deal is not legal.

 

[CupofOil]

I don't disagree that you need to make smart adds here and there, but it's difficult to hit on them constantly. We've gotten lucky with adds like Maroon and Chiasson, but they're tough to spot.

A big part of the lower end of that roster is going to have to be internally developed guys. Guys on ELCs.

The Oilers got lucky on those guys because they had extended time alongside one of two elite centers.

That's exactly the thing, the Oilers are always going to be top heavy so especially in a flat cap world, there's just no feasible way that they can add another high end forward (unless the Neal contract magically disappears) and keep the core together. You sign Hall, you better be ready to sacrifice one or two of Klefbom, Nurse, RNH and Yamamoto to fit him in.
It'll have to be more Maroon, Chiasson, Haas, Nygard, Sheahan, Archibald type adds to sprinkle throughout the roster until the cap rises again.

The bottom line, they are going to have to keep drafting and developing to fill the bigger roles. You saw the dividends that paid this year with Yamamoto, Bear and Jones and that will have to continue with the next wave of prospects to fill the existing holes.
I think targeting a #3C is more important than blowing their wad for Hall anyway. Even that will be tough to accomplish without some savvy work by Holland to move salary and getting the RFAs signed to bargain deals.