Rumor: Rumours & Proposals Thread | Looking Ahead, Navigating a $81.5M Landscape

[Cloned]

Continue here.

Your (thread) surgical skills are impressive.

 

[Captain Controversy]

Russell + 3rd to Ottawa or Montreal for nadda
Chaisson + AA for depth players that are cheaper.
Sign Hall

 

[Soli]

Your (thread) surgical skills are impressive.

Frankensutured this thread together real well!

 

[Cloned]

Frankensutured this thread together real well!

Hopefully that's not an accurate description of your real-life work.

 

[Soli]

Hopefully that's not an accurate description of your real-life work.

Depends on the thread.

 

[Aerchon]

This is nothing but pure speculation but I get the feeling the cap will take care of itself. Aka Nurse will walk after being gifted a premium contract to UFA status.

I just get the feeling Nurse thinks he is way better than he is. Don't get me wrong. I'm a fan and think he is going to get better and be at least a solid top 3 defender throughout his career... but I think he sees himself as an elite talent rather than an above average to good talent to date.

His new deal is so player friendly it reeks of him wanting a huge payday and Holland just doing his best to keep him on the team.

 

[Samus44]

Even if Bouchard and Broberg can play a top 4 role. Can Nurse and Bear play a top pairing role?

Klef plays quite the role on this clubs backend and takes minutes away from guys that can't handle them. I hate to see him go and all of a sudden we go from a real good d-core to an average one. Especially considering we have no idea what the hell we are going to have in net.

Real tough to even look one year away let alone 3.

I don't get this narrative since the literally played top pairing at evens all year. The Oilers hard matched Nurse and Bear against top lines all year, I don't recall a single game they didn't. Klefbom is 1st unit on both special team units so he plays more but at evens it was clearly Nurse and Bear all season against toughest competition. In fairness to Klefbom he was being used to shelter various partners, like Persson, which may be just as hard considering he was still out against tough competition himself but he was clearly 2nd pair at evens.

 

[Samus44]

This is nothing but pure speculation but I get the feeling the cap will take care of itself. Aka Nurse will walk after being gifted a premium contract to UFA status.

I just get the feeling Nurse thinks he is way better than he is. Don't get me wrong. I'm a fan and think he is going to get better and be at least a solid top 3 defender throughout his career... but I think he sees himself as an elite talent rather than an above average to good talent to date.

His new deal is so player friendly it reeks of him wanting a huge payday and Holland just doing his best to keep him on the team.

Holland and Nurse had a deal in place I'd think or else why would Holland make it. One thing Holland has always done well is work with players to creatively work around the cap, I honestly believe players and agents trust him and he trusts them. I think Nurse already agreed in principal to an extension, perhaps there is still a range (say 6-7.5 million) depending on performance, but I don't think Holland is willing to screw himself for no reason and it's pretty cynical to think so. I'm guessing Holland needed some cap relief and felt Nurse was worth 6.5 tops with term and Nurse thought he was worth 7.5 with term so Holland gave him a generous show me contract that helped keep the cap down 800k and allowed Nurse the opportunity to prove he's worth a little more. Win-win. The media essentially reported the deal was done in good faith and both parties were happy and trusting of one another.

 

[Mijatovic]

Holland is well known for giving overpriced loyalty contracts at Detroit. I am hoping he might have changed his ways but I wouldnt expect him to be working good contract miracles. I cant really think of one in the recent 5 years where I thought he gave out a below market value contract to a loyalty player.

 

[YakDavid]

I think contract dollars will either stagnant and players will not and can not take as expensive deals or length will shorten.

Though I am concerned about whatever team signs hall. Usually, UFA signings are overpriced. Add on top that cap is frozen to an extent. As a team I kinda hope we stay away unless its his current cap hit or a slight raise.

 

[Samus44]

I realise your time frame. Yamamoto's deal is not up until 2021 so no need to bridge him this off season. Bear I'd offer 3 years at $2.5M back loaded. AA is a guy you could easily trade if you signed a level LW.

The key is to be smart in the depth players you sign. There could be a fair number of Ennis level players who will take one year deals for $1M or less to stay in the NHL. Chiasson might actually be looking at a lot closer to $1M on his next deal. Guys like Nygaard and Hass should also remain cheap options.

It's an interesting proposal for the Oilers to back load contracts and allow their players to save on escrow given their financial advantages over most clubs. What I'm gathering you are suggesting is by offering RFA's most of their money in latter years they pay far less in escrow and take home more of their salary over the term. It's also advantageous as it also benefits them by giving them a higher QO and leverage in subsequent negotiations. The Oilers obviously gain cap advantages in return.

If I got that all right then there is tremendous incentive for players to accept such deals, as such the Oilers could also theoretically convince a guy like Athanasiou to take less than his QO on a 3 year term. If the Oilers offered a 3 year term with a cap hit of 2.5, a number i'd suspect he'd garner on a 1 year deal as a UFA, by back loading the deal Athanasiou could potentially make similar money than he would signing his QO for each subsequent season. For example if they offered him 1-2-4.5 he'd make 1.21-1.17 less than he would on a 3 year deal worth 9 million of equal distribution given the amount he'd save in escrow. It would break down like thi


So by taking less than his QO he would benefit from a higher QO on his next deal when the cap rises and gain some financial security during a tenuous time while coming off a poor year. I really hope the Oilers go this route, it would be advantageous for every one and there's not that much risk IMO paying Athanasiou 2.5 million per as it would be likely be a very movable deal even if he isn't great given his age and pedigree. Of course Athanasiou could bet on himself and hope he has a big year to garner a bigger caphit than his QO but it's doubtful given his RFA status and recent poor season that he could parlay that into much more than a 4 million dollar 1-2 year deal IMO and that wouldn't be a massive upgrade in salary to accept the potential risk of being a UFA during a flat cap. Good point Fourier.

Edit: Some really poor math. lol. I was too hasty.

 

[Chayos]

We want no part of Hall at 8 or above. Maybe if we give a first for someone to take Neal I would consider making a play at a UFA, but it would be Pietrangelo not Hall.

 

[Bangers]

Any chance of buyouts due to the coronavirus situation?

 

[belair]

I realise your time frame. Yamamoto's deal is not up until 2021 so no need to bridge him this off season. Bear I'd offer 3 years at $2.5M back loaded. AA is a guy you could easily trade if you signed a level LW.

The key is to be smart in the depth players you sign. There could be a fair number of Ennis level players who will take one year deals for $1M or less to stay in the NHL. Chiasson might actually be looking at a lot closer to $1M on his next deal. Guys like Nygaard and Hass should also remain cheap options.

I don't disagree that you need to make smart adds here and there, but it's difficult to hit on them constantly. We've gotten lucky with adds like Maroon and Chiasson, but they're tough to spot.

A big part of the lower end of that roster is going to have to be internally developed guys. Guys on ELCs.

 

[Samus44]

Holland is well known for giving overpriced loyalty contracts at Detroit. I am hoping he might have changed his ways but I wouldnt expect him to be working good contract miracles. I cant really think of one in the recent 5 years where I thought he gave out a below market value contract to a loyalty player.

Context is important. I think it's better to look at Hollands behavior during the time the Red Wings were a contender and not during the time when he was trying to extend the competitive window for his dying owner. He knew the bottom was going to fall out so he milked it for all it was worth. The Wings were going to hit the skids either way but by doing what he did they retained a veteran core to teach and insulate the next group while getting as much playoff revenue as possible. It's a buisness and he made a buisness, not a competitive, decision. He's even said as much. I don't think there was a real option for the Wings to not bottom out, all their best players were retiring year after year and age, front loaded contracts, and injuries made them difficult to deal.

 

[Mijatovic]

Context is important. I think it's better to look at Hollands behavior during the time the Red Wings were a contender and not during the time when he was trying to extend the competitive window for his dying owner.

I get that. But I am looking in the last 3-4 years. He gave out those listed contracts after Detroit were out of the playoffs at a time when they should have accepted the bottom falling out instead of overpriced contracts to replacement level players.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

We want no part of Hall at 8 or above. Maybe if we give a first for someone to take Neal I would consider making a play at a UFA, but it would be Pietrangelo not Hall.

I pay for Pietrangelo all day. Elite defensemen don't decline nearly as sharply as forwards in their 30s.

Hoping coronavirus influences hockey players with families to Canada as a UFA destination.

 

[nabob]

We're paying Nuge 8 mill when the cap is going in the toilet? Keeping in mind Draisaitl, who is arguably the best player in the league and continually improves his overall game and does whatever it takes to improve, is making 8.5. Nuge is the same player he's been since draft year.

Nuge was a hell of a payer in his draft year and one of the best players in the entire league after Christmas. Nuge is criminally underrated

 

[Faelko]

I get that. But I am looking in the last 3-4 years. He gave out those listed contracts after Detroit were out of the playoffs at a time when they should have accepted the bottom falling out instead of overpriced contracts to replacement level players.

Maybe he learned from his mistakes? Every GM has contracts they regret, Holland is no different. Different situations will require different strategies from him.

 

[Samus44]

I get that. But I am looking in the last 3-4 years. He gave out those listed contracts after Detroit were out of the playoffs at a time when they should have accepted the bottom falling out instead of overpriced contracts to replacement level players.

Not really. The worst one they still have to deal with moving forward is Abdelkader and he got his deal after a career season they made the playoffs in. The next worst they still have is Nielsen, a UFA so not a loyalty deal, and he got his deal the same offseason. Ericsson wasn't a great deal either but again they were looking to extend the window and he had been a top 4 D for them and he didn't get crazy money or term and the continuity helps breed the next generation. Yzerman did the same kind of deal by bringing Flippula back, a veteran Red Wing who knows and can pass on wisdom from their winning years. The team bottoms out and gets the high picks they need while keeping a winning pedigree in the room. He certainly made some bad deals but it wasn't as bad as you think it is and I do believe there was some method to his madness.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Nuge was a hell of a payer in his draft year and one of the best players in the entire league after Christmas. Nuge is criminally underrated

What does his draft year have to do with his next contract? What a weird variable to consider.

 

[Samus44]

It's an interesting proposal for the Oilers to back load contracts and allow their players to save on escrow given their financial advantages over most clubs. What I'm gathering you are suggesting is by offering RFA's most of their money in latter years they pay far less in escrow and take home more of their salary over the term. It's also advantageous as it also benefits them by giving them a higher QO and leverage in subsequent negotiations. The Oilers obviously gain cap advantages in return.

If I got that all right then there is tremendous incentive for players to accept such deals, as such the Oilers could also theoretically convince a guy like Athanasiou to take less than his QO on a 3 year term. If the Oilers offered a 3 year term with a cap hit of 2.5, a number i'd suspect he'd garner on a 1 year deal as a UFA, by back loading the deal Athanasiou could potentially make similar money than he would signing his QO for each subsequent season. For example if they offered him 1-2-4.5 he'd make 1.17 less than he would on a 3 year deal worth 9 million of equal distribution given the amount he'd save in escrow.

So by taking less than his QO he would benefit from a higher QO on his next deal when the cap rises and gain some financial security during a tenuous time while coming off a poor year. I really hope the Oilers go this route, it would be advantageous for every one and there's not that much risk IMO paying Athanasiou 2.5 million per as it would be likely be a very movable deal even if he isn't great given his age and pedigree. Of course Athanasiou could bet on himself and hope he has a big year to garner a bigger caphit than his QO but it's doubtful given his RFA status and recent poor season that he could parlay that into much more than a 4 million dollar 1-2 year deal IMO and that wouldn't be a massive upgrade in salary given the potential risk of being a UFA during a flat cap. Good point Fourier.

Edit: Some really poor math. lol. I was too hasty.

Sorry to anyone that had to read that idiotic math and may have gotten the wrong impression prior to the edit. I don't do the maths too often and got far too excited and did something dumb. I promise I'm not slow. lol

 

[belair]

Russell + 3rd to Ottawa or Montreal for nadda
Chaisson + AA for depth players that are cheaper.
Sign Hall

These trades have absolutely no impact on the cap in the years being discussed.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I don't get this narrative since the literally played top pairing at evens all year. The Oilers hard matched Nurse and Bear against top lines all year, I don't recall a single game they didn't. Klefbom is 1st unit on both special team units so he plays more but at evens it was clearly Nurse and Bear all season against toughest competition. In fairness to Klefbom he was being used to shelter various partners, like Persson, which may be just as hard considering he was still out against tough competition himself but he was clearly 2nd pair at evens.

Nurse and bear were struggling heavily near the end.

 

[nabob]

What does his draft year have to do with his next contract? What a weird variable to consider.

Not sure. I wasn’t the one to bring his draft year into the discussion.