Rumor: Rumours & Proposals Thread | Looking Ahead, Navigating a $81.5M Landscape

[Soli]

Click to read more...

 

[belair]

Just looking a bit ahead...

That flat cap is going to cause some problems for us starting next summer. As it stands we already have ~$49m committed to only nine skaters and a goalie.

It has me thinking that it would probably be smart to get our RFAs locked up to two or three year extensions instead of just one beginning this summer to carry them through the majority of the $81.5m cap era.

RNH (~7.5) - McDavid (12.5) - Kassian (3.2)
AA (3.25) - Draisaitl (8.5) - Yamamoto (4.0)
Benson (1) - XXXXXXXX - Archie (1.5)
Khaira (1.2) - XXXXXXXX - Neal (5.75)
(48.4)

Klefbom (4.2) - Larsson (~4.5)
Nurse (5.6) - Bear (2.5)
Jones (0.85) - Bouchard (1)
(18.65)

Sekera (1.5)
Lucic (0.75)
(2.25)

Koskinen (4.5)
XXXXXXXX
(4.5)

TOTAL: 73.8

This is probably as optimistic a cap outlook could be walking into the 2021-22 season. Assumed are RNH, Khaira and Larsson re-signs and short-term extensions for AA, Yamamoto, Bear and Benson. We're left with a little under $8m to address our bottom six C's and a back up role. Not impossible, but it's important to note that the bolded cap numbers aren't necessarily realistic. Not to mention absolutely no additions have been made to the active roster.

 

[belair]

The third year is even larger of an issue. The Nurse deal ends and you need to make long-term decisions on guys like Bouchard, Yamamoto, Bear and Benson.

I think something needs to happen with the Neal contract between then and now. And I'm wondering if we need to make a decision on Nurse next summer. We may not be able to afford both he and Klefbom on their next contracts.

It also puts into focus how unrealistic an add like Taylor Hall would be. Assuming we develop some reasonably solid supporting talent, we're going to have to pay them eventually.

 

[belair]

Didn't notice, but Jonathan Willis wrote an article about it yesterday.

Oilers get good cap news: Long-term outlook is tight but...

Numbers were fairly similar. Obviously I'm not as optimistic about it. It's tough to forecast, but that third year of the flat cap could be a doozy.

 

[The Cheez]

Just looking a bit ahead...

That flat cap is going to cause some problems for us starting next summer. As it stands we already have ~$49m committed to only nine skaters and a goalie.

It has me thinking that it would probably be smart to get our RFAs locked up to two or three year extensions instead of just one this summer.

RNH (~7.5) - McDavid (12.5) - Kassian (3.2)
AA (3.25) - Draisaitl (8.5) - Yamamoto (4.0)
Benson (1) - XXXXXXXX - Archie (1.5)
Khaira (1.2) - XXXXXXXX - Neal (5.75)
(48.4)

Klefbom (4.2) - Larsson (~4.5)
Nurse (5.6) - Bear (2.5)
Jones (1.2) - Bouchard (1)
(16.6)

Koskinen (4.5)
XXXXXXXX
(4.5)

TOTAL: 71.9

This is probably as optimistic a cap outlook could be walking into the 2021-22 season. Assumed are RNH, Khaira, Benson and Larsson re-signs and short-term extensions for AA, Yamamoto, Bear and Benson. We're left with about $9m to address our bottom six C's and a back up role. Not impossible, but it's important to note that the bolded cap numbers aren't necessarily realistic.

Also have to think the buy outs and retention on Lucic will cut that number down even more.
And I'm far from an expert in this area, but isnt there bonuses or something that also have to be taken into consideration?

 

[LTIR]

Bouchard should be ready for top 4 role when Larsson becomes a UFA. Walk away!

Broberg should be ready for top 4 LD role by the time Klefbom becomes a UFA. Walk away!

No need to pay UFA prices.

I would also walk away from Nuge if he is commanding 7.5M per.

Nurse-Bear
Jones-Bouchard
Broberg- whoever

Good enough for 2021-22

When I say walk away, I mean look for a trade first.

 

[belair]

Bouchard should be ready for top 4 role when Larsson becomes a UFA. Walk away!

Broberg should be ready for top 4 LD role by the time Klefbom becomes a UFA. Walk away!

No need to pay UFA prices.

I would also walk away from Nuge if he is commanding 7.5M per.

Nurse-Bear
Jones-Bouchard
Broberg- whoever

Good enough for 2021-22

When I say walk away, I mean look for a trade first.

When you 'walk away', you still need to fill that role with someone who likely takes up a similar amount of salary. And if we're assuming the team is in contention in those years, you're not trading these players away in the midst of a playoff run. Not to mention impending UFAs don't generally hold a ton of value.

In regards to Nuge--I've said it before--be prepared to pay him close to $8m. Especially if he posts a 70 point season in 2020-21.

Also good point regarding Broberg, but it's a pretty big leap expecting him to be holding down a top four role on a contender just three seasons into his pro career. We're going to need a number of our prospects to pan out by year three.

AA is also an interesting topic this summer. You kind of have to make a judgement call on him.

 

[belair]

Also have to think the buy outs and retention on Lucic will cut that number down even more.
And I'm far from an expert in this area, but isnt there bonuses or something that also have to be taken into consideration?

Fortunately Andrej Sekera is the only guy left on a buyout going into 2021-22 and his cap penalty drops to just $1.5m. But that does take away for the amount of salary we've got available to address our needs in both that year and the year after.

 

[joestevens29]

Even if Bouchard and Broberg can play a top 4 role. Can Nurse and Bear play a top pairing role?

Klef plays quite the role on this clubs backend and takes minutes away from guys that can't handle them. I hate to see him go and all of a sudden we go from a real good d-core to an average one. Especially considering we have no idea what the hell we are going to have in net.

Real tough to even look one year away let alone 3.

 

[XXIV97]

Klefbom - 100% re-signing.
Nurse - I would keep him for the next two years to see if there is any more growth. He could stay the same then sign the same contract.
Larsson - Trade him for a forward/prospect next season if Bouchard makes the jump.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Even if Bouchard and Broberg can play a top 4 role. Can Nurse and Bear play a top pairing role?

Klef plays quite the role on this clubs backend and takes minutes away from guys that can't handle them. I hate to see him go and all of a sudden we go from a real good d-core to an average one. Especially considering we have no idea what the hell we are going to have in net.

Real tough to even look one year away let alone 3.

I think we need to keep Klef where with Larsson you can move on from

 

[T-Funk]

When you 'walk away', you still need to fill that role with someone who likely takes up a similar amount of salary. And if we're assuming the team is in contention in those years, you're not trading these players away in the midst of a playoff run. Not to mention impending UFAs don't generally hold a ton of value.

In regards to Nuge--I've said it before--be prepared to pay him close to $8m. Especially if he posts a 70 point season in 2020-21.

Also good point regarding Broberg, but it's a pretty big leap expecting him to be holding down a top four role on a contender just three seasons into his pro career. We're going to need a number of our prospects to pan out by year three.

AA is also an interesting topic this summer. You kind of have to make a judgement call on him.

We're paying Nuge 8 mill when the cap is going in the toilet? Keeping in mind Draisaitl, who is arguably the best player in the league and continually improves his overall game and does whatever it takes to improve, is making 8.5. Nuge is the same player he's been since draft year.

 

[Fourier]

When you 'walk away', you still need to fill that role with someone who likely takes up a similar amount of salary. And if we're assuming the team is in contention in those years, you're not trading these players away in the midst of a playoff run. Not to mention impending UFAs don't generally hold a ton of value.

In regards to Nuge--I've said it before--be prepared to pay him close to $8m. Especially if he posts a 70 point season in 2020-21.

Also good point regarding Broberg, but it's a pretty big leap expecting him to be holding down a top four role on a contender just three seasons into his pro career. We're going to need a number of our prospects to pan out by year three.

AA is also an interesting topic this summer. You kind of have to make a judgement call on him.

Valette already acknowledged that the landscape for UFA's has changed with respect to Nuge. The Oilers also have the advantage that they can sign him for 8 years and are a team that has no trouble paying signing bonuses. Even if he hits 70 points a well structured deal could get him signed for less than $7.5M I'd bet. So I think you can save a little on your estimate their thoug you may be low on Larson so we'll call those two a wash.

As for a guy like Hall, he is also a player I think signs for less than others might expect if he is true to his word. I expect he comes in between $7-8M on an 7 year deal unless he wants to play most of the rest of his productive career on a rebuilding team.

Hall's resume has an MVP season and one other 80 point season that was 6 years ago. Right now he is about a 70 point player on most teams and he will be 29 years old when the season starts. If the expectation is that the cap will keep rising then he could get $9M on say a 5-6 year deal based on recent comparable. But if the cap is flat that drops down at least $1M I'd guess. Make it a 7 year deal and I think you could get him under $8M on a team he really wanted to be with. So hypothetically the question becomes can the Oilers afford a $8M player. I think the answer is yes even with future contracts pending.

The lineup you posted has a fair bit of fat in it. And another consequence of a flat cap is that there will be vets who will fill some of the missing slots cheaply.

 

[belair]

We're paying Nuge 8 mill when the cap is going in the toilet? Keeping in mind Draisaitl, who is arguably the best player in the league and continually improves his overall game and does whatever it takes to improve, is making 8.5. Nuge is the same player he's been since draft year.

The cap isn't going in the toilet. It's static for three seasons. Top end players won't be likely to devalue their UFA years due to a static salary cap. Draisaitl's contract was signed out of RFA. Nuge will have the ability to sign anywhere he wants unless he's extended prior.

We can optimistically believe he signs a hometown discount, but realistically the player is worth considerably more on the open market.

 

[belair]

Valette already acknowledged that the landscape for UFA's has changed with respect to Nuge. The Oilers also have the advantage that they can sign him for 8 years and are a team that has no trouble paying signing bonuses. Even if he hits 70 points a well structured deal could get him signed for less than $7.5M I'd bet. So I think you can save a little on your estimate their thoug you may be low on Larson so we'll call those two a wash.

As for a guy like Hall, he is also a player I think signs for less than others might expect if he is true to his word. I expect he comes in between $7-8M on an 7 year deal unless he wants to play most of the rest of his productive career on a rebuilding team.

Hall's resume has an MVP season and one other 80 point season that was 6 years ago. Right now he is about a 70 point player on most teams and he will be 29 years old when the season starts. If the expectation is that the cap will keep rising then he could get $9M on say a 5-6 year deal based on recent comparable. But if the cap is flat that drops down at least $1M I'd guess. Make it a 7 year deal and I think you could get him under $8M on a team he really wanted to be with. So hypothetically the question becomes can the Oilers afford a $8M player. I think the answer is yes even with future contracts pending.

The lineup you posted has a fair bit of fat in it. And another consequence of a flat cap is that there will be vets who will fill some of the missing slots cheaply.

Just made a comment regarding Nuge. You may get some wiggle room with Nuge offering the 8-year team, which also comes with risk. But like I said, you're asking a lot if you expect the player to sign away his UFA years at a small increase from his previous salary. It's pretty optimistic.

When it comes to Hall, even at a very low salary in the $7-8m range, you're talking about stretching that depth ridiculously thin in 2021-22. It'd be even thinner in 2022-23 when those RFAs are looking for extensions and the Nurse decision happens.

Also where do you see fat can be trimmed? Personally I'm concerned about Bear's ask being influenced by the Rasmus Andersson contract and Yamamoto's unexpected breakout pushing him into a much high salary range. When it comes to our key RFAs, I think it'd be a mistake to give any of them a one year term. Because years two and three will be bedlam if any of them break out.

 

[Cloned]

Every team is going to have trouble in that third year. It isn’t unique to the Oilers.

 

[LTIR]

The cap isn't going in the toilet. It's static for three seasons. Top end players won't be likely to devalue their UFA years due to a static salary cap. Draisaitl's contract was signed out of RFA. Nuge will have the ability to sign anywhere he wants unless he's extended prior.

We can optimistically believe he signs a hometown discount, but realistically the player is worth considerably more on the open market.

Nuge won't be worth 8M in the open market with 3 yrs of flat cap.
GMs are not going to open up their pockets if he remains on the wing with McD or Drai as his C's.

Flat cap is going to hurt UFAs the most especially with no compliance buyouts.

Nuge will be lucky to get 7 mil next season. Hall will be looking at 8.5M now instead of 10M+

 

[belair]

Every team is going to have trouble in that third year. It isn’t unique to the Oilers.

Ottawa and Detroit won't. This is just a commentary on our guys specifically. Looking a little bit forward, you question who might become expendable or too expensive.

 

[Fourier]

Just made a comment regarding Nuge. You may get some wiggle room with Nuge offering the 8-year team, which also comes with risk. But like I said, your asking a lot of you expect the player to sign away his UFA years at a small increase from his previous salary. It's pretty optimistic.

When it comes to Hall, even at a very low salary in the $7-8m range, you're talking about stretching that depth ridiculously thin in 2021-22. It'd be even thinner in 2022-23 when those RFAs are looking for extensions and the Nurse decision happens.

Also where do you see fat can be trimmed? Personally I'm concerned about Bear's ask being influenced by the Rasmus Andersson contract and Yamamoto's unexpected breakout pushing him into a much high salary range. When it comes to our key RFAs, I think it'd be a mistake to give any of them a one year term. Because years two and three will be bedlam if any of them break out.

I don't think I agree that the depth has to be really thin. You could probably fit Hall in by simply buying out Neal and trading Russell. The buyout is not ideal but if it allows you to add someone like Hall it is something to consider. I also think you could get it done by trading Russell and AA even without buying out Neal. To do that you likely need to bridge Yamamoto, which given the escrow situation may be a lot easier than in the past.

 

[belair]

I don't think I agree that the depth has to be really thin. You could probably fit Hall in by simply buying out Neal and trading Russell. The buyout is not ideal but if it allows you to add someone like Hall it is something to consider. I also think you could get it done by trading Russell and AA even without buying out Neal. To do that you likely need to bridge Yamamoto, which given the escrow situation may be a lot easier than in the past.

I'm talking specifically about years two and three of the static cap, which would be in 2021-22 and 2022-23.

When we're talking about bridging RFAs, that would would likely have to occur this summer. And if those bridges for guys like Yamamoto, Bear and AA end within this timeframe, their next contracts would also be of concern.

I'm stating that even without adding a high ticket free agent at any point, I'm not certain we can afford to keep both Klef and Nurse on their next deals. Throw Hall into the mix and there's no question you won't be able to.

 

[Fourier]

I'm talking specifically about years two and three of the static cap, which would be in 2021-22 and 2022-23.

When we're talking about bridging RFAs, that would would likely have to occur this summer. And if those bridges for guys like Yamamoto, Bear and AA end within this timeframe, their next contracts would also be of concern.

I'm stating that even without adding a high ticket free agent at any point, I'm not certain we can afford to keep both Klef and Nurse on their next deals. Throw Hall into the mix and there's no question you won't be able to.

I realise your time frame. Yamamoto's deal is not up until 2021 so no need to bridge him this off season. Bear I'd offer 3 years at $2.5M back loaded. AA is a guy you could easily trade if you signed a level LW.

The key is to be smart in the depth players you sign. There could be a fair number of Ennis level players who will take one year deals for $1M or less to stay in the NHL. Chiasson might actually be looking at a lot closer to $1M on his next deal. Guys like Nygaard and Hass should also remain cheap options.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Just looking a bit ahead...

That flat cap is going to cause some problems for us starting next summer. As it stands we already have ~$49m committed to only nine skaters and a goalie.

It has me thinking that it would probably be smart to get our RFAs locked up to two or three year extensions instead of just one this summer.

RNH (~7.5) - McDavid (12.5) - Kassian (3.2)
AA (3.25) - Draisaitl (8.5) - Yamamoto (4.0)
Benson (1) - XXXXXXXX - Archie (1.5)
Khaira (1.2) - XXXXXXXX - Neal (5.75)
(48.4)

Klefbom (4.2) - Larsson (~4.5)
Nurse (5.6) - Bear (2.5)
Jones (1.2) - Bouchard (1)
(16.6)

Koskinen (4.5)
XXXXXXXX
(4.5)

TOTAL: 71.9

This is probably as optimistic a cap outlook could be walking into the 2021-22 season. Assumed are RNH, Khaira, Benson and Larsson re-signs and short-term extensions for AA, Yamamoto, Bear and Benson. We're left with about $9m to address our bottom six C's and a back up role. Not impossible, but it's important to note that the bolded cap numbers aren't necessarily realistic.

I like that lineup and I think overall your numbers are pretty realistic if we’re talking about 2-3 year deals for some of the RFA’s. I think you could also pencil in McLeod to one of the bottom 6C roles by that time. In my opinion it’s a good roster with some cap flexibility. If they had the opportunity to acquire a winger they felt would really fit with McDavid they would have cap space. Next summer they can see what it would cost to have Seattle take Neal or if they really need extra space buy him out to clear another almost 4M.

 

[Cloned]

Ottawa and Detroit won't. This is just a commentary on our guys specifically. Looking a little bit forward, you question who might become expendable or too expensive.

They’re also not going to be competing for the Cup at that point either. Every legitimate playoff contender will have problems in the third year.

 

[McShogun99]

I'm talking specifically about years two and three of the static cap, which would be in 2021-22 and 2022-23.

When we're talking about bridging RFAs, that would would likely have to occur this summer. And if those bridges for guys like Yamamoto, Bear and AA end within this timeframe, their next contracts would also be of concern.

I'm stating that even without adding a high ticket free agent at any point, I'm not certain we can afford to keep both Klef and Nurse on their next deals. Throw Hall into the mix and there's no question you won't be able to.

I think RNH signs for somewhere between 6.5-7 for 8 years with a full NMC. I doubt we sign Hall but if we did we'd have to look at trading Russell, AA, Benning and Chaisson to make room. Trading Neal without taking salary will be impossible and buying him out isn't a smart thing to do yet. We'd have a stacked top 6 but our bottom six, bottom pairing D and backup goalie will all have to be players on ELC's or getting paid around 1 million per season. Mock lineup for next season if this happened.

RNH(6)-Mcdavid(12.5)-Kassian(3.2)
Hall(8)-Draisaitl(8.5)-Yamamoto(0.9)
Neal(5.75)-Haas(0.9)-JP(1)
Nygard(0.9)-Sheahan(1.5)-Archibald(1.5)
Gagner(0.8), Ennis(0.8)

Klefbom(4.2)-Larsson(4.2)
Nurse(5.6)-Bear(1.2)
Jones(0.7)-Bouchard(0.9)
Lagesson(0.8)

Koskinen(4.5)
Smith(2.5)

Retained(0.75)
Buyout(3.8)

Total= 81.4

Odds are next to impossible that we can trade all of AA, Benning, Chaisson and Russell without taking any salary back. As well as Hall signing for 8.

 

[Soli]

Continue here.