Rumor: Rumours & Proposals Thread | Another One

[belair]

They said you couldn't get a player like Lucic either ...

How do you think this helps your argument? Lucic was signed to replace the offensive production of Taylor Hall. That contract turned into an upside down investment the moment it was signed.

RNH is a known quantity.

 

[Broberg Speed]

You're making his point. Getting a UFA who you don't know will fit in is a risky proposition and usually costs more than retaining your own players.

All this bickering about giving RNH 7 million per year will seem incredible in hindsight if he tries his luck at UFA and ends up eventually accepting 5 million on a three or 4 year contract from another organization where he doesn't get to play with Connor McDavid.

 

[Beerfish]

You're making his point. Getting a UFA who you don't know will fit in is a risky proposition and usually costs more than retaining your own players.

Fit in? Tell me when the oilers have had great success with RNH? If anything it is not working.

Now I like RNH and he brings value but I'd have no issue moving on if we can get net gain out of it. Such as a legit #1 goalie.

 

[Samus44]

Then I would trade him and try to replace him this year with someone else. He is only a complimentary player at this point.

That or you risk a team like Nashville or Seattle or Vancouver signing him to a UFA deal at $8+ at the end of the season and you get nothing for him. Yep, trade him this year is my vote.

Take the RNH money and resign Nurse and JP and Yamamoto to their extension.

RMH gets you a first or two and a few prospects at least.

Name me another "complimentary" player that produces at a 70 point pace, plays 1st line at evens, is a top PP option, and PKer for their team while succeeding in every one of those roles. The years of losing has created some unreasonable degrees of self loathing when we're honestly trying to convince ourselves Nuge isn't a core player. Injuries can change a players career trajectory in an instant but apart from that possibility I think his career and continual statistical improvement makes it hard for me to buy what you're selling. He's 27 these are the years we've been waiting for since we drafted him.

 

[gordonhught]

You're making his point. Getting a UFA who you don't know will fit in is a risky proposition and usually costs more than retaining your own players.

I suppose, but I am not trying to be right. Players drop off at different rates. Poster was comparing RNH to Marleau. I was saying that in another few years RNH could be like Duchene, Turris, Lucic, etc.

My point is that RNH is at that age where based on his production, I am not convinced that paying him 7 mil per year is the best for this team in 3 years.

Regardless of whether you retain RNH or sign a different FA to take his place, none of that impacts how RNH is playing in a few years.

 

[Samus44]

Fit in? Tell me when the oilers have had great success with RNH? If anything it is not working.

Now I like RNH and he brings value but I'd have no issue moving on if we can get net gain out of it. Such as a legit #1 goalie.

The team is progressing and has been solid under Tippett. The Oilers problems were many but never Nuge. He can't make Chiarelli be smart, he can't save Sekera from injury. Teams get better gradually and that's what the Oilers are doing and Nuge's growth as a player is a big part of why. He developed into a player that can do whatever the team needs. Anytime the Oilers have had McDavid and Draisaitl split up the top line emerges as the one with Nuge on it and that's no coincidence.

 

[gordonhught]

How do you think this helps your argument? Lucic was signed to replace the offensive production of Taylor Hall. That contract turned into an upside down investment the moment it was signed.

RNH is a known quantity.

A known quantity now yes. Not necessarily in a few years. Players of his calibre drop off in their late 20s and early 30s. Why invest 7 mil per year on that player when most of the contract years will be for a declining player?

If RNH was 25 then sure. But the new contract would start to run for 7 years when RNH is between 28 and 35. Yuck paying 7 million per year for a 31-35 year old nuge.

 

[gordonhught]

Name me another "complimentary" player that produces at a 70 point pace, plays 1st line at evens, is a top PP option, and PKer for their team while succeeding in every one of those roles. The years of losing has created some unreasonable degrees of self loathing when we're honestly trying to convince ourselves Nuge isn't a core player. Injuries can change a players career trajectory in an instant but apart from that possibility I think his career and continual statistical improvement makes it hard for me to buy what you're selling. He's 27 these are the years we've been waiting for since we drafted him.

Sure, then pay him less. Not 7 million per year for 7 years.

That contract would be an albatross in a few years time.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Fit in? Tell me when the oilers have had great success with RNH? If anything it is not working.

Now I like RNH and he brings value but I'd have no issue moving on if we can get net gain out of it. Such as a legit #1 goalie.

100% correct. I've given every compliment possible to RNH in this thread but at 7 million it would preferable to let him walk at the end of the season and have that cap space available. Balance that with losing the production for "the rest of this season" from RNH and gaining a possible upgrade in net we would receive if a trading partner becomes available.

 

[Samus44]

I suppose, but I am not trying to be right. Players drop off at different rates. Poster was comparing RNH to Marleau. I was saying that in another few years RNH could be like Duchene, Turris, Lucic, etc.

My point is that RNH is at that age where based on his production, I am not convinced that paying him 7 mil per year is the best for this team in 3 years.

Regardless of whether you retain RNH or sign a different FA to take his place, none of that impacts how RNH is playing in a few years.

He's a prime aged player. He's as young a UFA as you can hope to find. Are you really advocating never signing prime UFA's? Because without term and dollars a 27 year old UFA is never going to sign here. Newsflash 27-33 year olds are generally the majority of players making up winning teams. It's rare for a player of Nuge's caliber and skillset to fall off immediately. We all know power forwards often have shorter lifespans and I can't tell you why centers go to die in Nashville but it's certainly not the norm. Grow and develop your own players and enjoy the prime years, don't jettison them in the beginning-middle of those years. It's how teams never take the next step. It's why the Oilers took a step back when Sekera got hurt and wasn't replaced. Prime veteran players win you hockey games.

 

[Samus44]

Sure, then pay him less. Not 7 million per year for 7 years.

That contract would be an albatross in a few years time.

How do you know? Prove it.

 

[belair]

A known quantity now yes. Not necessarily in a few years. Players of his calibre drop off in their late 20s and early 30s. Why invest 7 mil per year on that player when most of the contract years will be for a declining player?

If RNH was 25 then sure. But the new contract would start to run for 7 years when RNH is between 28 and 35. Yuck paying 7 million per year for a 31-35 year old nuge.

Players of his calibre? Such as? You're talking about a player who rarely gets injured and has played the majority of his career without extended playoff runs. The idea he's due for massive regression is an assumption backed by absolutely nothing. The same goes for Tyson Barrie.

You're also making a massive assumption saying that you can replace the production by making multiple roster adds via trade and UFA. The team's history in those two categories would show you it's far more likely you'll misspend the cap and be stuck with negative value assets.

 

[gordonhught]

He's a prime aged player. He's as young a UFA as you can hope to find. Are you really advocating never signing prime UFA's? Because without term and dollars a 27 year old UFA is never going to sign here. Newsflash 27-33 year olds are generally the majority of players making up winning teams. It's rare for a player of Nuge's caliber and skillset to fall off immediately. We all know power forwards often have shorter lifespans and I can't tell you why centers go to die in Nashville but it's certainly not the norm. Grow and develop your own players and enjoy the prime years, don't jettison them in the beginning-middle of those years. It's how teams never take the next step. It's why the Oilers took a step back when Sekera got hurt and wasn't replaced. Prime veteran players win you hockey games.

Sure ok sign him them - give him the 7.5 to 8 mil he wants for 7 years

 

[Broberg Speed]

How do you know? Prove it.

Do some research and look at how these contracts turn out the majority of the time. If you can't do that I'm convinced nobody can convince you of very much.

 

[gordonhught]

Players of his calibre? Such as? You're talking about a player who rarely gets injured and has played the majority of his career without extended playoff runs. The idea he's due for massive regression is an assumption backed by absolutely nothing. The same goes for Tyson Barrie.

You're also making a massive assumption saying that you can replace the production by making multiple roster adds via trade and UFA. The team's history in those two categories would show you it's far more likely you'll misspend the cap and be stuck with negative value assets.

Sounds good to me - sign him for 7.5 per year for the next 7 years

we will see what happens when JP, Bouchard, Yama, and nurse need to be resigned

I am with you though give nuge his money he is worth every penny

 

[Broberg Speed]

Players of his calibre? Such as? You're talking about a player who rarely gets injured and has played the majority of his career without extended playoff runs. The idea he's due for massive regression is an assumption backed by absolutely nothing. The same goes for Tyson Barrie.

You're also making a massive assumption saying that you can replace the production by making multiple roster adds via trade and UFA. The team's history in those two categories would show you it's far more likely you'll misspend the cap and be stuck with negative value assets.

What player are you talking about that doesn't get injured very often?

 

[Samus44]

Do some research and look at how these contracts turn out the majority of the time. If you can't do that I'm convinced nobody can convince you of very much.

I'll give you a more reasonable comparable since you guys struggle to find one. Paul Statsny. I actually think that would be a bit of a disappointment but that's an overpay a team can still win with.

 

[McShogun99]

If anything a player with Hall's skill set will decline much faster then RNH. RNH doesn't depend on his size or speed, he's average physically and is more of a cerebral player with good pedigree. Players like him are usually effective until their mid 30's.

 

[belair]

What player are you talking about that doesn't get injured very often?

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The guy who's missed 20 games over the past half decade.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

I still wonder if rnh sees himself as a center and that will kill an extension.

 

[McOilers97]

This is really optimistic. Marleau played to age 41. That is well over average for player longevity. RNH could have a career trajectory like Turris or Matt Duchene.

Marleau also a VERY good skater, which RNH isn't. Smoother skater yes, but no explosiveness.

 

[McOilers97]

If RNH's AAV demand starts with a "7", then I don't want him back.

$6.5m x 6 years is my ceiling on the offer. If he wants to be here, he should be happy with a raise at all given the flat cap. He's a good player, but he has massively benefitted from having the best C linemate(s) in the league for the past couple seasons.

If some team wants to pay him $7m+ to be a top 6 C without elite, art-ross contending linemates, they will be sorely disappointed when he only produces 55 points. We saw for YEARS that that's what he was capable of before being stapled to 29 or 97.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Even then, a 50+ point defenseman in his early 30s who plays a nonphysical game is going to have value on the open market at $6m with a rising cap. A $7m RNH is going to have value on the open market with a rising cap. You can manage those contracts. What you can't manage is losing that production.

Having Barrie in Edmonton performing at an elite level caps Bouchard's growth during his ELC. It potentially limits the amount you'll need to spend on an extension three years from now.

All three of those guys...Barrie, Nurse, Nuge... you won't replace them. Pay them.

I agree with a lot of this, but it forgets one simple truth, coaches like winning, if it becomes apparent Bouchard is the better choice on the PP the coach will go with him, cap-savings be damned.

It also shouldn't be overlooked that the practice of bridging young d-men coming off their ELC's is super common and even if Bouch does extremely well the bridge contract tends to keep that 2 year extension very reasonable (contract after that is a different story).

Before signing Barrie we should project what his likely point drop would be from moving from the 1st unit PP to the 2nd unit PP and being sure the amount we are looking to pay him along with the term would ensure that he is still a tradeable asset in the event his production decreased by the projected amount. If we signed Barrie to $6M x 5 years I'd hazard that he'd be tradeable as long as he is at roughly 45 points (pro-rata to 82 games), if he hits sub-40 points given his questionable defensive game he starts to become a hard sell to move him, although Mike Green did shift his game a bit in his latter years to become a more solid & reliable defensive player I'm not sure how comfortable we are projecting Barrie to change his game should the situation call for it.

 

[McSpecial DraiBlend]

I don't think you can give Nuge more than what he is making right now. 6 mill would ve the max with this flat cap and the term is probably 4 yrs. I have a feeling he could walk if he wants more than that long term.
With the flat cap he just isn't worth north of 6.
We will have other players needing to get paid like Jesse and Bouchard.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

If anything a player with Hall's skill set will decline much faster then RNH. RNH doesn't depend on his size or speed, he's average physically and is more of a cerebral player with good pedigree. Players like him are usually effective until their mid 30's.

I do agree that the hallmark of Hall's game is his speed and ability to gain easy zone entries with possession and that more cerebral players tend to age more gracefully than those relying on physical gifts, but people don't give Hall enough credit for his playmaking skills, he is an elite playmaker that portion of his game is likely to stick with him for quite some time and while Hall's general hockey IQ is lower than Nuge he definitely has higher offensive IQ he is better able to see how the play will unfold and where the gaps are, if anyone is under some mistaken impression that Hall without his speed will become a trash player, I think you are out to lunch, worst case is likely something resembling Parise in Minny with a little more of an offensive skew and a bit worse defensively.