Rumor: Rumours & Proposals Thread | Another One

[Soundwave]

Even then, a 50+ point defenseman in his early 30s who plays a nonphysical game is going to have value in the open market at $6m with a rising cap. A $7m RNH is going to have value on the open market with a rising cap. You can manage those contracts. What you can't manage is losing that production.

Having Barrie in Edmonton performing at an elite level caps Bouchard's growth during his ELC. It potentially limits the amount you'll need to spend on an extension three years from now.

All three of those guys...Barrie, Nurse, Nuge... you won't replace them. Pay them.

I'm not sure his production doesn't drop off a lot if/when Bouchard takes his spot on the PP though.

Even RNH, when he's 32 at 7 mill cap hit and starting to show decline, I don't think it's such a given that people will be lining up to take his contract. How many teams would want Matt Duchene now.

 

[CupofOil]

Even then, a 50+ point defenseman in his early 30s who plays a nonphysical game is going to have value in the open market at $6m with a rising cap. A $7m RNH is going to have value on the open market with a rising cap. You can manage those contracts. What you can't manage is losing that production.

Having Barrie in Edmonton performing at an elite level caps Bouchard's growth during his ELC. It potentially limits the amount you'll need to spend on an extension three years from now.

All three of those guys...Barrie, Nurse, Nuge... you won't replace them. Pay them.

You can't just "pay them", especially in the case of Barrie and Nuge. It's a flat cap world and the Oilers have a top heavy salary structure so they need to be frugal with their spending. They can't simply pay these secondary players whatever they want because it won't be easy to replace them (and btw, Barrie is pretty redundant on this roster going forward).

Nurse they might need to go on the higher end of market value because he's their undisputed #1 Dman and likely will be for a while (barring trade for an upgrade) but Nuge is a complimentary forward and Barrie is a 2nd pairing offensive defenseman who is nearing 30.

$7M is the absolute high end of what Nuge should get with $6.5M being in the fair range on a 6-7 year deal, Nurse might get upwards of $8M if he continues on this trajectory which is tricky but he sort of has the Oilers by the balls especially with the Klefbom situation playing out the way it has so that will likely be an overpayment and Barrie will have to sign a shorter term deal if he wants to be here, something like 4x5. If he wants anything more than that, you let him walk and slide Bouchard into the 2nd pairing/top PP QB role for much cheaper over the next two years.

 

[Jumptheshark]

for the changes the oilers need to do and what this board THINKS the oilers should do--we will need to make some tough decisions

 

[Broberg Speed]

I'm not sure his production doesn't drop off a lot if/when Bouchard takes his spot on the PP though.

Even RNH, when he's 32 at 7 mill cap hit and starting to show decline, I don't think it's such a given that people will be lining up to take his contract. How many teams would want Matt Duchene now.

How many teams would want Kyle Turris at 6 million. He's only 31.

 

[Soundwave]

How many teams would want Kyle Turris at 6 million. He's only 31.

Exactly, 3 years ago, Turris looked like a decent player, man he went down hill fast.

Oilers should be leery of giving too many going on 30-something players long term deals, in 2-3 years when they should be "going for it" they may regret that they are handcuffed to a bunch of deals.

 

[Samus44]

I'm not sure his production doesn't drop off a lot if/when Bouchard takes his spot on the PP though.

Even RNH, when he's 32 at 7 mill cap hit and starting to show decline, I don't think it's such a given that people will be lining up to take his contract. How many teams would want Matt Duchene now.

Based on this season I'd argue Barrie's offensive prowess at evens has been his greatest benefit to the team. It's a reasonable question/concern though.

 

[Samus44]

How many teams would want Kyle Turris at 6 million. He's only 31.

Is comparing a 31 year old player with less points than the 27 year old you're comparing him too reasonable?

 

[gordonhught]

Is comparing a 31 year old player with less points than the 27 year old you're comparing him too reasonable?

You need to compare their totals at ages 26 and 27 to get an apples to apples comparison.

NUGE
Draft year +8 = 69 points in 82 games = 0.84 ppg
Draft year +9 = 61 points in 69 games = 0.88 ppg
Draft year +10 = 15 points in 18 games = 0.83 ppg
Average = 0.85 ppg

TURRIS
Draft year +8 = 58 points in 82 games = 0.70 ppg
Draft year +9 = 69 points in 82 games = 0.84 ppg
Draft year +10 = 55 points in 78 games = 0.70 ppg
Average = -.74 ppg

On average, RNH is on pace (during the same years) for about 8 extra points a season.

In draft year +11, Turris dipped to about 0.66 ppg. Turris has been about 0.5 ppg the last two seasons. This year he has dropped off significantly.

If Nuge has the same degree of drop off, then by age 31 Nuge would be maybe 0.60 to 0.66 ppg (or about year 3 of an extension).

EDIT: It is also interesting to note that RNH has been playing with Drai or McDavid the last two years at least. I would also be interested to know how many of the Nuge points came at PP as opposed to 5v5 play and compare that to Turris' totals.

 

[belair]

You can't just "pay them", especially in the case of Barrie and Nuge. It's a flat cap world and the Oilers have a top heavy salary structure so they need to be frugal with their spending. They can't simply pay these secondary players whatever they want because it won't be easy to replace them (and btw, Barrie is pretty redundant on this roster going forward).

Nurse they might need to go on the higher end of market value because he's their undisputed #1 Dman and likely will be for a while (barring trade for an upgrade) but Nuge is a complimentary forward and Barrie is a 2nd pairing offensive defenseman who is nearing 30.

$7M is the absolute high end of what Nuge should get with $6.5M being in the fair range on a 6-7 year deal, Nurse might get upwards of $8M if he continues on this trajectory which is tricky but he sort of has the Oilers by the balls especially with the Klefbom situation playing out the way it has so that will likely be an overpayment and Barrie will have to sign a shorter term deal if he wants to be here, something like 4x5. If he wants anything more than that, you let him walk and slide Bouchard into the 2nd pairing/top PP QB role for much cheaper over the next two years.

No it isn't! It's a flat cap two years beyond this season. You're talking about three players in their prime playing years signing long-term extensions. You can fit an RNH and Barrie 'overpayment' into the payroll over the next two seasons. You can afford a Nurse 'overpayment' in 2022/23. The net difference would be $5-6m increase in salary versus the current cost of those three players combined. Buying out James Neal would cover the majority of that.

The only other significant salary expenditures over the next two seasons should be the Yamamoto extension and an improvement in goal. Depth adds to improve the bottom six shouldn't break the bank. Beyond that two year window, the cap likely rises and those contracts don't have as significant an impact.

You want to f*** with the future cap? Try replacing a top line forward via free agency.

 

[Samus44]

You need to compare their totals at ages 26 and 27 to get an apples to apples comparison.

You need to compare more than stats and look at the track record of proven ability. Nuge is a proven performer on both ends of the ice and is and has always been an elite PP option and he's an outstanding PKer. Turris has never impacted special teams in the same fashion as Nuge and doesn't have 10 consecutive years of top 6 production. Nuge has never struggled to be a quality player at the NHL level because his hands, feet, heart, and head are all assets. Turris looks like a guy with heart issues to me and there's no proof that he has ever had the raw talent that Nuge has proven he's had since day one as an 18 year old.

 

[belair]

You need to compare more than stats and look at the track record of proven ability. Nuge is a proven performer on both ends of the ice and is and has always been an elite PP option and he's an outstanding PKer. Turris has never impacted special teams in the same fashion as Nuge and doesn't have 10 consecutive years of top 6 production. Nuge has never struggled to be a quality player at the NHL level because his hands, feet, heart, and head are all assets. Turris looks like a guy with heart issues to me and there's no proof that he has ever had the raw talent that Nuge has proven he's had since day one as an 18 year old.

You want a Nuge comparable? Patrick Marleau.

 

[Soundwave]

Lets assume that say Bouchard breaks out and Puljujarvi and Yamamoto rack up nice point totals, a hypothetical Oilers salary structure in 3 years ...

Holloway (0.9) McDavid (12.5) Puljujarvi (4)
RNH (7) Draisaitl (8.5) Yamamoto (5.75)
Savoie (1) blank (3) Kassian (3.2)
Benson (1.8) Khaira (2) blank (1)
blank (0.9)

Nurse (7.25) Bear (4.5)
Broberg (0.9) Bouchard (6)
Lagesson (2.5) Barrie (6)
blank (1)

Goalie A (6)
Goalie B (2.5)

Neal Buy Out - 1.9 mill-ish?

= 90 million approx

I mean the cap will probably rise, but that will be quite tight

Now you can say "well so and so won't get paid that much!" but how do you know, what if they do break out? You have to consider things like that.

 

[gordonhught]

Lets assume that say Bouchard breaks out and Puljujarvi and Yamamoto rack up nice point totals, a hypothetical Oilers salary structure in 3 years ...

Holloway (0.9) McDavid (12.5) Puljujarvi (4)
RNH (7) Draisaitl (8.5) Yamamoto (6)
Savoie (1) blank (3) Kassian (3.2)
Benson (1.8) Khaira (2) blank (1)
blank (0.9)

Nurse (7.25) Bear (4.5)
Broberg (0.9) Bouchard (6)
Lagesson (2.5) Barrie (6)
blank (1)

Goalie A (6)
Goalie B (2.5)

Neal Buy Out - 1.9 mill-ish?

= 89 million approx

I mean the cap will probably rise, but that will be quite tight

Now you can say "well so and so won't get paid that much!" but how do you know, what if they do break out? You have to consider things like that.

I would give RNH 7 on a 3 year contract. After that, it is probably diminishing returns with that player. The last 4 years would be trouble. You would not be able to extend Drai or McDavid. One would be gone, but you would still have RNH.

EDIT: And, RNH is dropping off by my eye.

 

[Soundwave]

I would give RNH 7 on a 3 year contract. After that, it is probably diminishing returns with that player. The last 4 years would be trouble. You would not be able to extend Drai or McDavid. One would be gone, but you would still have RNH.

That's nice to say, but player agents aren't stupid. No one is signing a 7x3 contract in RNH's place. It has to be 7x6 or 7x7 most likely.

 

[CupofOil]

No it isn't! It's a flat cap two years beyond this season. You're talking about three players in their prime playing years signing long-term extensions. You can fit an RNH and Barrie 'overpayment' into the payroll over the next two seasons. You can afford a Nurse 'overpayment' in 2022/23. The net difference would be $5-6m increase in salary versus the current cost of those three players combined. Buying out James Neal would cover the majority of that.

The only other significant salary expenditures over the next two seasons should be the Yamamoto extension and an improvement in goal. Depth adds to improve the bottom six shouldn't break the bank. Beyond that two year window, the cap likely rises and those contracts don't have as significant an impact.

You want to f*** with the future cap? Try replacing a top line forward via free agency.

You want to f*** up the future cap? Pay every complimentary player whatever they want.

I'm not saying that they shouldn't prioritize these guys, Nurse and RNH in particular, but you still have to negotiate a good deal. And btw, it's a flat cap the next two years for sure and some are projecting it to be flat beyond that even with a potential modest increase at best.


How about this? Give me some fair contracts for these three players then we'll go from there.

 

[gordonhught]

That's nice to say, but player agents aren't stupid. No one is signing a 7x3 contract in RNH's place. It has to be 7x6 or 7x7 most likely.

Then I would trade him and try to replace him this year with someone else. He is only a complimentary player at this point.

That or you risk a team like Nashville or Seattle or Vancouver signing him to a UFA deal at $8+ at the end of the season and you get nothing for him. Yep, trade him this year is my vote.

Take the RNH money and resign Nurse and JP and Yamamoto to their extension.

RMH gets you a first or two and a few prospects at least.

 

[gordonhught]

You want a Nuge comparable? Patrick Marleau.

This is really optimistic. Marleau played to age 41. That is well over average for player longevity. RNH could have a career trajectory like Turris or Matt Duchene.

 

[belair]

I would give RNH 7 on a 3 year contract. After that, it is probably diminishing returns with that player. The last 4 years would be trouble. You would not be able to extend Drai or McDavid. One would be gone, but you would still have RNH.

EDIT: And, RNH is dropping off by my eye.

His shot volume is in the bloody stratosphere and he's setting a career high in average minutes played. People will see what they want to see, apparently.

You don't replace that player. Not by trade, not through UFA and there's nothing in our system that's anywhere close to being NHL ready.

This isn't EA Sports. Good players are hard to get. Look at Edmonton's draft, trade and UFA history.

 

[gordonhught]

His shot volume is in the bloody stratosphere and he's setting a career high in average minutes played. People will see what they want to see, apparently.

You don't replace that player. Not by trade, not through UFA and there's nothing in our system that's anywhere close to being NHL ready.

This isn't EA Sports. Good players are hard to get. Look at Edmonton's draft, trade and UFA history.

They said you couldn't get a player like Lucic either ...

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

You need to compare more than stats and look at the track record of proven ability. Nuge is a proven performer on both ends of the ice and is and has always been an elite PP option and he's an outstanding PKer. Turris has never impacted special teams in the same fashion as Nuge and doesn't have 10 consecutive years of top 6 production. Nuge has never struggled to be a quality player at the NHL level because his hands, feet, heart, and head are all assets. Turris looks like a guy with heart issues to me and there's no proof that he has ever had the raw talent that Nuge has proven he's had since day one as an 18 year old.

It would be interesting to see Turris and Nuge switch places in the lineup. I'm really not sold they would look too different from each other in each role. I remember in McDrai's early days when Nuge flanked the 3rd line and a lot of those same criticisms were used for him.
He always seemed to get benefit of the doubt for being this defensive wizard because he was given the hard matchups even though he didn't really succeed at them.

 

[Soundwave]

His shot volume is in the bloody stratosphere and he's setting a career high in average minutes played. People will see what they want to see, apparently.

You don't replace that player. Not by trade, not through UFA and there's nothing in our system that's anywhere close to being NHL ready.

This isn't EA Sports. Good players are hard to get. Look at Edmonton's draft, trade and UFA history.

He has to be reasonable in his salary demands ... sure you can keep him at 7.5x7 mill, but how much of his production and minutes are inflated by playing with McDavid?

His ES goal production with McDavid is still very mediocre this year, like 2 actual 5 on 5 goals I think with McDavid in 18 games.

 

[Broberg Speed]

That's nice to say, but player agents aren't stupid. No one is signing a 7x3 contract in RNH's place. It has to be 7x6 or 7x7 most likely.

If that's what it takes, buh bye. I don't care what anyone says because that's insane.

 

[Samus44]

You want to f*** up the future cap? Pay every complimentary player whatever they want.

I'm not saying that they shouldn't prioritize these guys, Nurse and RNH in particular, but you still have to negotiate a good deal. And btw, it's a flat cap the next two years for sure and some are projecting it to be flat beyond that even with a potential modest increase at best.


How about this? Give me some fair contracts for these three players then we'll go from there.

He was using the term "overpayment" facetiously in regards to the narrative he was responding to. He was not literally saying to overpay them. These guys aren't complimentary players they are key players and highly valuable assets.

 

[Broberg Speed]

RHH is playing a very easy game of give and go at even strength. It's effective but not 7 million dollars effective.

 

[Samus44]

They said you couldn't get a player like Lucic either ...

You're making his point. Getting a UFA who you don't know will fit in is a risky proposition and usually costs more than retaining your own players.