Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part XI

[DRW204]

Perreault was a complete liability this year. One of the worst penalty differentials on the team. Not pulling his weight at all. Tanev brought way more and has shown he has an offensive side to his game that actually includes drawing penalties rather than taking them. Plus he blows Perreault out of the water when it comes to zone entry/exit efficiency.

i don't disagree with you on Perreault and do respect the strides Tanev has made in his game.

I just think you can bring in a similar styled player (skates fast in straight lines and hits a lot) for cheaper and plug them next to Lowry and get similar results esp. defensively. I think this season was the best of Tanev and the worst of Perreault. Perreault's track record is positive but fell a part at the end of the year. Id expect a bounce back more from Perreault rather than Tanev to continue his play.

I also believe Tanev's style of play will eventually catch up to him and face injuries down the road. I mean how can it not

like i said, probably in the minority with this though. but yea i wouldn't sign him to a long term deal

 

[Gm0ney]

Perreault was a complete liability this year. One of the worst penalty differentials on the team. Not pulling his weight at all. Tanev brought way more and has shown he has an offensive side to his game that actually includes drawing penalties rather than taking them. Plus he blows Perreault out of the water when it comes to zone entry/exit efficiency.

Tanev skates fast, works hard, draws penalties had a good (career?) year. Perreault had an off year, but I wouldn't say he was a liability. Took too many penalties. Still finished positive in GF% and the fancies. I wouldn't be scrambling to move him, anyway...

 

[Daximus]

i don't disagree with you on Perreault and do respect the strides Tanev has made in his game.

I just think you can bring in a similar styled player (skates fast in straight lines and hits a lot) for cheaper and plug them next to Lowry and get similar results esp. defensively. I think this season was the best of Tanev and the worst of Perreault. Perreault's track record is positive but fell a part at the end of the year. Id expect a bounce back more from Perreault rather than Tanev to continue his play.

I also believe Tanev's style of play will eventually catch up to him and face injuries down the road. I mean how can it not

like i said, probably in the minority with this though. but yea i wouldn't sign him to a long term deal

Tanev is a monster and the kid just doesn't seem to ever get truly injured, even when he is he is right back out there without losing much of his game. He's younger, faster, better defensively, less injury prone, PK's better, draws more penalties, takes less penalties and is cheaper then Perreault. In our lineup Perreault is a bottom 6 player. He's not playing over Laine, Wheeler, Connor or Ehlers in the top 6 and he can't play C due to a recurring injury. I'd expect a short term injury and a penalty from Perreault before I'd expect Tanev to slow down.

 

[Daximus]

Tanev skates fast, works hard, draws penalties had a good (career?) year. Perreault had an off year, but I wouldn't say he was a liability. Took too many penalties. Still finished positive in GF% and the fancies. I wouldn't be scrambling to move him, anyway...

We need his money. I'd love to keep everyone to but it's just not realistic and I'll take Tanev over Perreault now and going forward every day of the week. Especially when you consider what Tanev has done the last two playoff runs compared to "No Show Perreault".

 

[Whileee]

As I just posted on the main board, if Chevy can't find really good value on the trade market for Trouba, I could see keeping Trouba next year on a good-value arb contract as an underrated option. The Jets would have a solid D core for another playoff run, and it would allow them another full season of development for potential D replacements (e.g. Niku, Samberg, Kovacevic, Poolman). Also, the Jets would free up cap space to go hunting for a UFA D in the 2020 off-season, which will be much, much richer than this year's UFA D crop, including:

Barrie
Krug
Spurgeon
Vatanen
J. Faulk
Brodie
Hamonic
C. Tanev
Muzzin
Josi
Dillon
Pysyk
TVR
DeMelo

 

[Gm0ney]

As I just posted on the main board, if Chevy can't find really good value on the trade market for Trouba, I could see keeping Trouba next year on a good-value arb contract as an underrated option. The Jets would have a solid D core for another playoff run, and it would allow them another full season of development for potential D replacements (e.g. Niku, Samberg, Kovacevic, Poolman). Also, the Jets would free up cap space to go hunting for a UFA D in the 2020 off-season, which will be much, much richer than this year's UFA D crop, including:

Barrie
Krug
Spurgeon
Vatanen
J. Faulk
Brodie
Hamonic
C. Tanev
Muzzin
Josi
Dillon
Pysyk
TVR
DeMelo

Trouba's got a pretty good arbitration case. He was 13th in D scoring this season I believe? The 13th highest cap hit % at time of signing is 10%. 20th is 8.7%. 30th is 8%. So the range is somewhere between $6.65M and $8.3M - probably closer to the higher end. So I don't think the Jets can really look forward to a good value contract. Market value? Sure.

Also, how many of those pending 2020 UFAs are going to be re-signed? Of the remaining ones, how many are signing in Winnipeg for a reasonable amount? We had to pay Dimitri Kulikov $4.3M x 3 to come here and he's the Russian Ben Chiarot.

 

[DRW204]

As I just posted on the main board, if Chevy can't find really good value on the trade market for Trouba, I could see keeping Trouba next year on a good-value arb contract as an underrated option. The Jets would have a solid D core for another playoff run, and it would allow them another full season of development for potential D replacements (e.g. Niku, Samberg, Kovacevic, Poolman). Also, the Jets would free up cap space to go hunting for a UFA D in the 2020 off-season, which will be much, much richer than this year's UFA D crop, including:

Barrie
Krug
Spurgeon
Vatanen
J. Faulk
Brodie
Hamonic
C. Tanev
Muzzin
Josi
Dillon
Pysyk
TVR
DeMelo

i haven't looked that far... but we are having trouble making an 83M cap, in 2020 we have Morrissey to re-sign long-term, id suspect we'd be hard-pressed to fit a UFA RHD still even with Trouba's salary gone

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah they need all the money they can get. We can handle the buyout price for the short term. It's the long tern that is worrying. I'm starting to wonder if Vesalainen shows well next year if we should trade one of our other wingers and snag some extra futures for future cap worries.

We have already moved Foley, Armia and Lemieux. We probably lose Tanev to UFA. We are talking about moving Perreault for cap reasons. We may need to move another top 6 winger for help at either C or D. I can't see moving any wingers who rate any higher than Spacek and we wouldn't get anything for ones rated lower. We need Vesalainen and Appleton to replace Frenchie and Tanev.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

like i said enlighten us why Sanheim can't be as good Trouba by the time he's 25. I am not a Philly fan and am saying i think he has potential so you're wrong on saying outside of Philly fans..... and you're the one who keeps bringing up moving Couturier

Of course he has potential. His potential was never regarded as being as high as Trouba's, IMO. Trouba has reached his projected potential, or very close. Sanheim is still working on it. He may or may not ever reach the level Trouba is at now. That remains unknown. Sanheim can be as good. Can you guarantee that he will?

No, I did not bring up Couturier. I replied to someone else to say that it was highly unlikely. I then speculated on just how far we would have to go to make getting him even an outside possibility. I made it abundantly clear that I thought it was only a very outside possibility. He is not untouchable, just very expensive. I'm sure we could get him for Trouba + Laine + Scheifele.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I’m thinking Chevy is already working on moving him. Talk to him and his agent Overcharge, see where he would be willing to extend and do a sign and trade. Any team that he would be looking at are already in their offseason. Det, TB, Fla, Ny, maybe Philly. All with maybe exception of FLA need a top RHD and all have plenty of assets

Wouldn't surprise me if he has made a few phone calls. I expect him to go sometime near the draft though.

I don't know if it is good business to talk to KO about it or not. And sign and trade is probably the wrong way to describe it. Just give any team that is serious about it permission to talk to him. Deal him to the one able to make a deal with him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

At this stage I would be ok with Frost + ‘19 1st. Frost is still a prospect and has yet to play a game against men but is tracking well. 1st gets us a another good prospect for the pipeline.

That 1st is 11 OA. There are some very good looking D men who will still be available there. I picked out 2 from each side in about 5 min. Dax would have a much better idea of who the best ones would be but I would be happy with any of the 4 I picked out.

 

[Daximus]

We have already moved Foley, Armia and Lemieux. We probably lose Tanev to UFA. We are talking about moving Perreault for cap reasons. We may need to move another top 6 winger for help at either C or D. I can't see moving any wingers who rate any higher than Spacek and we wouldn't get anything for ones rated lower. We need Vesalainen and Appleton to replace Frenchie and Tanev.

Oh god I hope we don't lose Tanev. You're probably right but I really hope we can get him signed.

 

[DRW204]

Of course he has potential. His potential was never regarded as being as high as Trouba's, IMO. Trouba has reached his projected potential, or very close. Sanheim is still working on it. He may or may not ever reach the level Trouba is at now. That remains unknown. Sanheim can be as good. Can you guarantee that he will?

No, I did not bring up Couturier. I replied to someone else to say that it was highly unlikely. I then speculated on just how far we would have to go to make getting him even an outside possibility. I made it abundantly clear that I thought it was only a very outside possibility. He is not untouchable, just very expensive. I'm sure we could get him for Trouba + Laine + Scheifele.

you keep back tracking, first it was he has little/no probability to meet Trouba's potential, now it's may or may not...you're the one that said he doesn't have potential to be as good as Trouba all I am asking is how does he not? is it b/c he's missing PP1 time?

he rates similarly to Trouba in his 23 year old season, and a bit better at 5v5 offense and defense as Trouba did this year. he doesn't get prime PP1 opportunity with Ghost and Provorov on the roster, similar to Trouba prior to Buff's injury this season.

so what's missing from his potential to be a LH version of Trouba?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah but if Callahan is coming back as well as one of Johnson/Miller then Kulikov has to go there's just no way around it. Even in a buyout situation for Callahan Kulikov has to go. It's going to be a down season anyways and Kulikov isn't needed. Kulikov is still useful to someone and I think we can move a late round pick to get it done.

I don't agree. I've looked at it from every angle I can think of and I just can't find any way of moving Kuli that makes any significant difference to our cap situation next year. Neither the roster nor the cap effect makes sense unless we give up an asset to move him and I don't believe that makes sense either. The buyout and retaining don't save us anything and make our roster weaker. I don't believe anyone is going to take him at full cost if we don't give up an asset.

 

[Whileee]

Trouba's got a pretty good arbitration case. He was 13th in D scoring this season I believe? The 13th highest cap hit % at time of signing is 10%. 20th is 8.7%. 30th is 8%. So the range is somewhere between $6.65M and $8.3M - probably closer to the higher end. So I don't think the Jets can really look forward to a good value contract. Market value? Sure.

Also, how many of those pending 2020 UFAs are going to be re-signed? Of the remaining ones, how many are signing in Winnipeg for a reasonable amount? We had to pay Dimitri Kulikov $4.3M x 3 to come here and he's the Russian Ben Chiarot.

Three NHL D make $8 million or more. Trouba won't fit into that category.

Based on almost every metric (except PP points), Trouba's performance was better in 2017/18 than 2018/19.

Trouba's point production dipped this season (5v5) from 2017/18, from 1.09 to 0.96. The rest of his metrics also took a dive this past season. He got more points via the PP, but the Jets will just argue that was because Buff was injured for half the season.

I really can't see him getting much more than $6-6.5M in arbitration this season.

Here's one way to look at it...

 

[Daximus]

That 1st is 11 OA. There are some very good looking D men who will still be available there. I picked out 2 from each side in about 5 min. Dax would have a much better idea of who the best ones would be but I would be happy with any of the 4 I picked out.

Soderstrom, York, Seider, Harley and Heinola are pretty good options. Though to be honest some really high end kid is going to fall out of that top 10. And being at 11 allows you the biggest opportunity to pick that kid. I'd be hard pressed if I'm making that pick not to go after that kid rather then pick one of those defencemen.

 

[Daximus]

I don't agree. I've looked at it from every angle I can think of and I just can't find any way of moving Kuli that makes any significant difference to our cap situation next year. Neither the roster nor the cap effect makes sense unless we give up an asset to move him and I don't believe that makes sense either. The buyout and retaining don't save us anything and make our roster weaker. I don't believe anyone is going to take him at full cost if we don't give up an asset.

It all depends on how things shake out. If we take a Tampa deal similar to the one I suggested he pretty much has to be moved out. Though that isn't the only option, it just gets us what we mostly want. I wouldn't be opposed to shipping out someone like Harkins to make it happen. Not Spacek.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Honestly moving Little would be a major help too. But who the hell would take him on?

and why would he waive?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Oh god I hope we don't lose Tanev. You're probably right but I really hope we can get him signed.

I agree. I was thinking we could keep him, but the more I think about it, the more I expect some team to overpay. UFA tends to be a bit crazy.

 

[Daximus]

and why would he waive?

Hard to say but if we somehow get ourselves a 2C. Little is not getting $5mil worth of playing time in this lineup. He might want out just for the opportunity elsewhere. Scheif, 2C and Lowry will likely take a larger share of that icetime away from him. It's also not a full NMC in 20/21, so there is options.

 

[Daximus]

I agree. I was thinking we could keep him, but the more I think about it, the more I expect some team to overpay. UFA tends to be a bit crazy.

The key part is not letting him get there. But that is damn hard to do, especially when he has a brother playing on an up and coming team that would likely overpay him to be there.

 

[Whileee]

I don't agree. I've looked at it from every angle I can think of and I just can't find any way of moving Kuli that makes any significant difference to our cap situation next year. Neither the roster nor the cap effect makes sense unless we give up an asset to move him and I don't believe that makes sense either. The buyout and retaining don't save us anything and make our roster weaker. I don't believe anyone is going to take him at full cost if we don't give up an asset.

Buying out Kulikov saves $2.9 million in cap space next season, and costs an additional $1.4 million in cap space in 2020/21.

They bought out Stuart a couple of years ago, so I think they might consider it for Kulikov.

They could also consider trading him while retaining some salary, say about $1.5 million. That would give them $2.8 million to help fill that LD spot, and I think he's a tradeable asset at $2.8 million, or would require minimal incentive to have a team acquire him.

 

[DRW204]

Soderstrom, York, Seider, Harley and Heinola are pretty good options. Though to be honest some really high end kid is going to fall out of that top 10. And being at 11 allows you the biggest opportunity to pick that kid. I'd be hard pressed if I'm making that pick not to go after that kid rather then pick one of those defencemen.

if one of the big Cs fall out of the top 10 (ie: Cozens/Dach/Turcotte/Zrgras), at #11 that'd be a great boon. I really like Heionla too. How do you rank those 4 Dmen?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

you keep back tracking, first it was he has little/no probability to meet Trouba's potential, now it's may or may not...you're the one that said he doesn't have potential to be as good as Trouba all I am asking is how does he not? is it b/c he's missing PP1 time?

he rates similarly to Trouba in his 23 year old season, and a bit better at 5v5 offense and defense as Trouba did this year. he doesn't get prime PP1 opportunity with Ghost and Provorov on the roster, similar to Trouba prior to Buff's injury this season.

so what's missing from his potential to be a LH version of Trouba?

Oh for Christ's sake! Saying that anything is possible is not backtracking. He was not rated as highly as Trouba was. That does not mean he doesn't have potential. He has the potential to be as good as Trouba - but it is improbable.

It is because he has not matched Trouba's performance at the equivalent point in development at any one point so far. Trouba was a regular in the NHL in D+2. Sanheim was still in the WHL. In D+3, Trouba's 2nd year as a regular in the NHL, Sanheim was playing in the AHL. And so on.

 

[Daximus]

Buying out Kulikov saves $2.9 million in cap space next season, and costs an additional $1.4 million in cap space in 2020/21.

They bought out Stuart a couple of years ago, so I think they might consider it for Kulikov.

They could also consider trading him while retaining some salary, say about $1.5 million. That would give them $2.8 million to help fill that LD spot, and I think he's a tradeable asset at $2.8 million, or would require minimal incentive to have a team acquire him.

Also a very good option. Honestly I'd take a lump next season if it means we come back in 2020/21 season stronger. Trade some vets, make some room, keep the role players we can, inject a bunch of youth. Similar to how Dallas did it in 2017 and got themselves Heiskanen who has completely turned that team around kids a stud. You're always building and 2020 is a damn strong draft. A season of development to come back stronger could work. Of course you let the chips fall where they may and maybe the youth and departure of some vets doesn't hurt at all. Maybe everything falls into place and the young guys and Helle play well. I just think maybe we shouldn't be scared to take a dip if we come out on the other end stronger. Sucks in the now, but could pay massive dividends in the future.