Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part XI

[Mortimer Snerd]

Most would agree. No coach is really all that great. Coaches have their particular system and strengths with certain types of player but no matter what a coach is only ever as good as his roster. If the players execute a system then they will win. If they don't, they likely wont win.

I saw a study not long ago, think it was on NHL Numbers, that coaching changes has virtually no major impact on a teams play. That the major impacts tend to came from player changes. You want to shake up a roster you make some trades. Most people would attribute the Islanders recent success to Barry Trotz. But maybe simply moving Tavares out. And adding Martin, Komorov, Filpulla, Toews and Lehner had a far greater effect.

Generally speaking I think you are right. Most coaches who make it to the NHL are so near equal that shuffling them around makes little or no difference. They all know the same systems and have similar strengths and weaknesses. I think some coaches may have intangibles that go beyond the systems. I don't know whether it is motivational or whether some are better at using the players they are given, rather than needing outstanding players.

I will credit the coaching change in StL, not because Berube is so good, but because Yeo was bad. I will credit Trotz in NY too. Not necessarily because he is so good but because he was the coach that team needed. Right guy, right place, right time. And I think he is one of the better coaches.

 

[Daximus]

Honestly moving Little would be a major help too. But who the hell would take him on?

 

[Whileee]

From Tampa
Callahan
Sergachev
Johnson

From Winnipeg
Trouba - with a long term deal (Tampa tax friendly)
+ something else

This is the kind of situation we can take advantage of. Tampa wants a RHD and some cap relief to get Point signed. We free up about $20m for them (factoring in the space they'll have + the cap rising). While taking on around $11.6m. We would then have to shed Perreault, Kulikov and Myers to make it work. While adding Vesalainen, Roslovic, Niku and Appleton full time. And our backup would have to come cheap.

Johnson has a full no-trade clause. I highly doubt he would waive it for the Jets.

But I like the way you are going with this. Replace Trouba with a cheaper / younger player like Sergachev, and sweeten the deal by clearing cap room.

Instead of Johnson, what about JT Miller? He doesn't have a NTC, has played C in the past, has a bit more size and bite to his game, and still comes in at $5.25M.

Callahan also has a no-trade clause, but maybe he'd waive it if the Jets agreed to buy him out. Then he would re-sign with TB, or any other team he wants without losing much in salary.

Something like this?

To TB:

Trouba (6.75M)
Roslovic (0.9 M)

To Wpg:

Sergachev (0.9M)
J.T. Miller (5.3M)
Callahan (5.8M)
Pick (2020 1st or 2nd)

TB might still need to shed some salary, but it would have the net result of clearing about $4.3 million in cap space, while filling in their D with Trouba and Roslovic.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'd take Nylander and Dermott tbh.

That might be as good as we would get anywhere else. From what I have seen from Leafs fans in the many discussions of Trouba to TO, I don't think any (or many) of them would do that.

 

[Whileee]

How much longer does Callahan have left?

1 year @ 5.8M.

You could buy him out and reduce his cap hit to...

$2.67M (2019/20)
$1.57m (2020/21)

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Way too soft and too much of a perimeter player

I don't think either of those players would be ideal. But both may be better than the alternatives. Could only be done after Nylander gets his bonus though. My guess is that Trouba goes before the draft. Just a guess though.

 

[Whileee]

That might be as good as we would get anywhere else. From what I have seen from Leafs fans in the many discussions of Trouba to TO, I don't think any (or many) of them would do that.

Somehow I don't see Trouba being keen on signing long-term in Toronto. It's another Canadian franchise, which causes future career issues for his fiancee, and I'm not sure he would enjoy the crazy media fish-bowl in Toronto.

I think the Jets' best return will be from a team that is able to sign Trouba long-term, which likely means a US franchise.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

In respect to Myers --posters here are coming in at a low of $ $ 3.5 mil to a high of $ 6.5 mil. I think his value lies somewhere in between at around $ 5- 5.5 mil over 5 or 6 years.

It wouldn't surprise me to see him get offered $ 6 mil + , and I wonder if he'd settle for a bit less money from the Jets. I think so, as he likes it here.

Do the Jets go all in on Myers, if Trouba is gone for sure ? I think "yes"

I can only hope that you are wrong. That would be committing to an ineffective fix to the problem. It isn't Myers that hurts. It is the commitment.

 

[Daximus]

Johnson has a full no-trade clause. I highly doubt he would waive it for the Jets.

But I like the way you are going with this. Replace Trouba with a cheaper / younger player like Sergachev, and sweeten the deal by clearing cap room.

Instead of Johnson, what about JT Miller? He doesn't have a NTC, has played C in the past, has a bit more size and bite to his game, and still comes in at $5.25M.

Callahan also has a no-trade clause, but maybe he'd waive it if the Jets agreed to buy him out. Then he would re-sign with TB, or any other team he wants without losing much in salary.

Something like this?

To TB:

Trouba (6.75M)
Roslovic (0.9 M)

To Wpg:

Sergachev (0.9M)
J.T. Miller (5.3M)
Callahan (5.8M)
Pick (2020 1st or 2nd)

TB might still need to shed some salary, but it would have the net result of clearing about $4.3 million in cap space, while filling in their D with Trouba and Roslovic.

I don't mind Miller. He was Tampa's 3/4C for much of the season. Not as good of a 5v5 and defensive player as Johnson but could work in that spot. Johnsons NTC might be hard to get around but I would prefer him over Miller, though am not opposed to Miller if it doesn't

Yeah when you factor in the cap rise and the money they already have free'd it actually results in them likely being able to sign both Point and Trouba long term. We likely still need to move one of our wingers on top of that though. Unless we can somehow get someone to take Little as well.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Somehow I don't see Trouba being keen on signing long-term in Toronto. It's another Canadian franchise, which causes future career issues for his fiancee, and I'm not sure he would enjoy the crazy media fish-bowl in Toronto.

I think the Jets' best return will be from a team that is able to sign Trouba long-term, which likely means a US franchise.

Yup. I'm only commenting on the proposed return. I doubt Leafs offer that because they would only be paying for a 1 yr rental.

 

[Daximus]

1 year @ 5.8M.

You could buy him out and reduce his cap hit to...

$2.67M (2019/20)
$1.57m (2020/21)

Good call that actually helps us out in the near term with the cap. But we still need to move Little out before Morrissey and Sergachev need a raise. Or one of Connor, Ehlers, Laine.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Flyers aren't trading Couturier. he's their Selke version of Scheifele and is signed at 4.3M

Yup.
It might be possible to pry him out of there but it would take a lot more than just Trouba. To get him + a D man we would have to add a lot. Blockbuster territory. I wonder if even Trouba + Connor would be enough for Couts + Sanheim? Might come up short even assuming Trouba has agreed to a contract.

 

[DRW204]

Yup.
It might be possible to pry him out of there but it would take a lot more than just Trouba. To get him + a D man we would have to add a lot. Blockbuster territory. I wonder if even Trouba + Connor would be enough for Couts + Sanheim? Might come up short even assuming Trouba has agreed to a contract.

that's still bad for philly. you're removing their 1C with no heir apparent in sight. Maybe they put Giroux back at C but he's been more effective on the Wing since his hernia. They have Giroux/JVR as top 6 LWs and Sanheim might be as good as Trouba without all the contract headaches

a trade with philly probably starts with one of Frost+ or 11th+

 

[Daximus]

Yup.
It might be possible to pry him out of there but it would take a lot more than just Trouba. To get him + a D man we would have to add a lot. Blockbuster territory. I wonder if even Trouba + Connor would be enough for Couts + Sanheim? Might come up short even assuming Trouba has agreed to a contract.

You'd have a better chance of getting Patrick then Couts I'd imagine.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

From Tampa
Callahan
Sergachev
Johnson

From Winnipeg
Trouba - with a long term deal (Tampa tax friendly)
+ something else

This is the kind of situation we can take advantage of. Tampa wants a RHD and some cap relief to get Point signed. We free up about $20m for them (factoring in the space they'll have + the cap rising). While taking on around $11.6m. We would then have to shed Perreault, Kulikov and Myers to make it work. While adding Vesalainen, Roslovic, Niku and Appleton full time. And our backup would have to come cheap.

I think the + would be mitigated by taking Callahan. Wouldn't have to be too high. Problem with Johnson though. He has a full NTC. Why would he waive? That makes Miller the more likely C coming our way. I think Miller is better. That would push the add higher.

 

[Daximus]

I think the + would be mitigated by taking Callahan. Wouldn't have to be too high. Problem with Johnson though. He has a full NTC. Why would he waive? That makes Miller the more likely C coming our way. I think Miller is better. That would push the add higher.

Miller was on their 4th line by season end. Johnson was up with Point. Johnson also scored 27 5v5 goals last year and is a fair lick better than Miller defensively. He's had his ups and downs, mostly due to injury, but he's been better than Miller for pretty much his entire career. But I agree that he likely doesn't want out of Tampa at all.


Tampa and us are in a good position to barter around Trouba. They need cap relief and a top 4 RHD. We need a young replacement defencemen and a 2C. I think it's a match made in heaven. Especially considering Troubas's connections with the Florida area (wife goes to school in Fort Lauderdale and he owns a condo there as well). Plus with Tampa's sweep they may feel some pressure to shake things up a bit.

 

[DRW204]

Tyler Johnson plays heavily with Kucherov and Point. JT Miller is kind of a jack of all trades player, plays all 3 positions up & down the lineup... id think his usage is similar to Perreault. People complain about Ehlers' playoffs, take a look at Jt Millers historically

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

that's still bad for philly. you're removing their 1C with no heir apparent in sight. Maybe they put Giroux back at C but he's been more effective on the Wing since his hernia. They have Giroux/JVR as top 6 LWs and Sanheim might be as good as Trouba without all the contract headaches

a trade with philly probably starts with one of Frost+ or 11th+

Philly would still have Patrick + Frost at C. Neither is as good as Couts, at least not yet. But it is not like they would be devoid of Cs. Giroux could move back to C for 1 yr but that is probably not optimal.

LW is not a great need for them. A LW would have to move to the right.

Sanheim has stepped up this year, but I don't think he really has Trouba potential. Not with much probability at any rate. They win Trouba for Sanheim 1 for 1, assuming Trouba signs.

That said, it still probably isn't enough. They really like Couturier. I think there is a fair bit of potential for a trade with Philly but it does not likely involve Couts, much as I might like to get him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You'd have a better chance of getting Patrick then Couts I'd imagine.

Yes, but then we are not including Connor.

 

[Daximus]

Yes, but then we are not including Connor.

Nope. I'd think about a Trouba for Patrick trade straight up. I don't think Philly does it based on potential. But the kid has been a bandaid for a few years now.

 

[Whileee]

I don't mind Miller. He was Tampa's 3/4C for much of the season. Not as good of a 5v5 and defensive player as Johnson but could work in that spot. Johnsons NTC might be hard to get around but I would prefer him over Miller, though am not opposed to Miller if it doesn't

Yeah when you factor in the cap rise and the money they already have free'd it actually results in them likely being able to sign both Point and Trouba long term. We likely still need to move one of our wingers on top of that though. Unless we can somehow get someone to take Little as well.

Miller is much better defensively, and Johnson is better offensively. On balance, I'd prefer Miller, I think.

 

[MardyBum]

1 year so we free up an addition $5.6m for ourselves next year. Here is a rough estimate using a $83m cap for next year.

Forwards
Player	Salary
Wheeler	8,250,000
Scheifele	6,125,000
Laine	6,500,000
Connor	7,000,000
Ehlers	6,000,000
Johnson	5,000,000
Callahan	5,800,000
Little	5,291,666
Lowry	2,916,666
Copp	1,750,000
Tanev	2,000,000
Appleton	741,667
Roslovic	894,166
Vesalainen	925,000
Total for Forwards = 59,194,165
Defence
Byfuglien	7,600,000
Morrissey	3,150,000
Niku	775,000
Morrow	1,250,000
Beaulieu	2,500,000
Sergachev	894,166
Total for Defence = 16,169,166
Goalies
Hellebuyck	6,166,666
Backup
Total for Goalies =
Total for All = 81,529,997
Salary Cap = 83,000,000
Space Leftover = 1,470,003

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Only 1 year? Pretty good deal then. Callahan is still a solid NHL player, just overpaid. Get a young top 4 dman and a 2C. Go get it done Dax

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Miller was on their 4th line by season end. Johnson was up with Point. Johnson also scored 27 5v5 goals last year and is a fair lick better than Miller defensively. He's had his ups and downs, mostly due to injury, but he's been better than Miller for pretty much his entire career. But I agree that he likely doesn't want out of Tampa at all.


Tampa and us are in a good position to barter around Trouba. They need cap relief and a top 4 RHD. We need a young replacement defencemen and a 2C. I think it's a match made in heaven. Especially considering Troubas's connections with the Florida area (wife goes to school in Fort Lauderdale and he owns a condo there as well). Plus with Tampa's sweep they may feel some pressure to shake things up a bit.

That is quite contrary to my impression of Miller V Johnson. Johnson scores more goals but is weak defensively. Miller generates more SA and is better defensively. But debating those 2 players is not the big issue. It is Johnson's NTC. I would take either in that deal. If Miller is the one available then he is the one we get.

I think the sweep works in our favour. Among other things, it pushes Tampa to make some cap moves to get a better PO oriented roster. Trouba is that.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

i think Callahan would get 3-way dealt to NYR in this scenario and we + TBL send NYR a sweetner for taking on the dump

I wouldn't call it a 3 way but we might flip Callahan the NYR if the price was not too steep.

 

[Daximus]

Miller is much better defensively, and Johnson is better offensively. On balance, I'd prefer Miller, I think.

View attachment 220425

The weird thing with Johnson is prior to his injury he outperformed Miller in both areas while taking on harder matchups in Tampas top 6 at the time. since moving to wing he's refound some of his offence. But when putting someone on a likely line with Laine. Defence doesn't seem to be the key. You have to be a passer.