Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part VII

[scelaton]

I've given up trying to say this. I honestly have no idea what people watch. I get the frustration with Laine from time to time, but the "one trick pony" comments just lack all objectivity.

The 'one-trick pony' comments don't imply that he is a plug, just that he seems to have a narrow-range of elite skills which, along with some significant liabilities, could --COULD--limit his upside. It's basic risk assessment.
As for objectivity, and as much as we agree on so much, I am of the opinion that Jets' fans (on both sides of the debate) are the least objective about Laine of anyone...except maybe Leafs fans! But there are plenty of dispassionate, informed observers without an axe to grind worth listening to.
Passion trumps objectivity all too often in life; I think we can all agree on that.

 

[Whileee]

He has more way more than a big shot but he is not a line driver at this point IMO and I would have said the same thing in November when he was on a heater. Will he become one in the future is anyone's guess I suppose?

He's not a line driver yet, but that's not unusual for a 20 year old. Scoring is still the premium skill. He does that as well as any NHLer. Huge overreaction around here to a young player's slump, in my view.

 

[Ducky10]

I'm not saying we should definitely do it. But this slump while we are still winning is showing that we arent reliant on him to win games.

The Jets have won plenty without some of their best players even in the lineup, hell they went all the way to the conference final with 1 goal out of Ehlers. It's a matter of just how more dangerous they will be when a player like that turns it around again.

 

[Daximus]

He's not a line driver yet, but that's not unusual for a 20 year old. Scoring is still the premium skill. He does that as well as any NHLer. Huge overreaction around here to a young player's slump, in my view.

No one is saying he cant become that high end player. I just look at our lineup and think of how well we are playing in spite of his slump and wonder if we really need him when we could use him to shore up a lot of other holes in our lineup. I understand the fan aspect of it. If he turns out to be that 50 goal scorer he is fun to watch. But looking at it from a contention side we dont really seem to need those extra goals as much as we might think we do.

 

[Daximus]

The Jets have won plenty without some of their best players even in the lineup, hell they went all the way to the conference final with 1 goal out of Ehlers. It's a matter of just how more dangerous they will be when a player like that turns it around again.

I agree but then I look at how much more dangerous we could be rolling 3 strong defensive pairs. Or how much more dangerous we could be if we had even more depth. I'm not saying do it, but I do think that it is an interesting road we could go down and something we could possibly explore.

 

[cbcwpg]

As far as trading Laine...

NHL is a different game today. I can tell you with 100% certainty that no one ever thought the Oilers were going to trade Gretzky. Yet they did, and the reason didn't have anything to do with making the team better, he was traded for monetary reasons. One reason ( not the only reason ) why Selanne was traded from the Jets.

Paddock --
"There was a point made, an emphasis made by new ownership -- looking at the longer-term picture -- how can we afford three $3 million-a-year forwards in Keith Tkachuk, Teemu Selanne and Alexei Zhamnov?" said Paddock.

At this point in the NHL , no one is untouchable, and the players are in it to get paid the most. Laine could get traded and it could have nothing to do with his current slump. The Cap is dictating what teams are doing in regards to players.

Me personally, I don't really care who is on the team anymore, as long as the team does well. Winning is all that matters, and when you start giving 11% or more of your cap to one player, it can make winning harder.

Of note: Buff is the only Jet to exceed 10% of the cap hit at contract signing. 10.41%

 

[Spock]

As far as trading Laine...

NHL is a different game today. I can tell you with 100% certainty that no one ever thought the Oilers were going to trade Gretzky. Yet they did, and the reason didn't have anything to do with making the team better, he was traded for monetary reasons. One reason ( not the only reason ) why Selanne was traded from the Jets.

Paddock --
"There was a point made, an emphasis made by new ownership -- looking at the longer-term picture -- how can we afford three $3 million-a-year forwards in Keith Tkachuk, Teemu Selanne and Alexei Zhamnov?" said Paddock.

At this point in the NHL , no one is untouchable, and the players are in it to get paid the most. Laine could get traded and it could have nothing to do with his current slump. The Cap is dictating what teams are doing in regards to players.

Me personally, I don't really care who is on the team anymore, as long as the team does well. Winning is all that matters, and when you start giving 11% or more of your cap to one player, it can make winning harder.

Of note: Buff is the only Jet to exceed 10% of the cap hit at contract signing. 10.41%

Wheeler is right there too depending on the exact cap next year.

 

[folix]

Am I missing something? The kids 20 years old and in a major slump and he is still the second leading goal scorer on the team. Uhhh yeah.

 

[Duke749]

No one is saying he cant become that high end player. I just look at our lineup and think of how well we are playing in spite of his slump and wonder if we really need him when we could use him to shore up a lot of other holes in our lineup. I understand the fan aspect of it. If he turns out to be that 50 goal scorer he is fun to watch. But looking at it from a contention side we dont really seem to need those extra goals as much as we might think we do.

Well it’s a good thing we have fewer holes then what Laine would bring back in a trade.

 

[Duke749]

Am I missing something? The kids 20 years old and in a major slump and he is still the second leading goal scorer on the team. Uhhh yeah.

How many goals has he scored since November and is STILL our second leading goal scorer? Uhhh yeah. I think we’re both missing something.

 

[Oilpeg]

Flames traded a much older Brett Hull late in his rookie season when he was a point a game guy with 26 goals. Went on to a 700-goal career, that would be my fear in trading Laine. Yes, the Flames won the cup one-year later, but I'd still regret trading the best goal scorer of the 90s (by over 100 goals). Is one cup worth that cost?

Hull was 24 and had nothing close to the success that Laine's had before his 21st birthday, so the chances of Laine becoming what Hull became are pretty good, I think.

 

[Whileee]

No one is saying he cant become that high end player. I just look at our lineup and think of how well we are playing in spite of his slump and wonder if we really need him when we could use him to shore up a lot of other holes in our lineup. I understand the fan aspect of it. If he turns out to be that 50 goal scorer he is fun to watch. But looking at it from a contention side we dont really seem to need those extra goals as much as we might think we do.

It begs the question... If the Jets are playing so well with Laine slumping, and Ehlers and Buff out, how big are the other holes in the lineup?

It's fun to think about dumping an elite scorer when you are getting a bunch of 4th line goals, but when that secondary scoring inevitably dries up for a spell, the value of an elite scorer will re-emerge.

Way too much short term thinking around here, I think.

 

[Whileee]

I agree but then I look at how much more dangerous we could be rolling 3 strong defensive pairs. Or how much more dangerous we could be if we had even more depth. I'm not saying do it, but I do think that it is an interesting road we could go down and something we could possibly explore.

3rd D pairings are highly overrated in terms of importance. When have the Pens ever had a good third pairing. How good is the Bolts' third pairing.

Scoring talent and depth is one indispensable part of a contender.

 

[Ducky10]

Goals are hard to come by in the playoffs, having a guy who is a threat to get one anytime he's within 60 feet of the net is a good thing. The guy has always scored goals, he'll find it again and when he does, it gives the Jets an attack not many player's or combinations of players can provide.

 

[scelaton]

It begs the question... If the Jets are playing so well with Laine slumping, and Ehlers and Buff out, how big are the other holes in the lineup?

It's fun to think about dumping an elite scorer when you are getting a bunch of 4th line goals, but when that secondary scoring inevitably dries up for a spell, the value of an elite scorer will re-emerge.

Way too much short term thinking around here, I think.

You keep talking about slumps and short-term thinking, but that is not necessarily the case. I couldn't care less about Laine's current slump--I've already factored him in for 40-50 goals per year. It's the rest of his game in a changing NHL I am concerned about, along with the opportunity cost of signing an expensive contract and not considering other options.
I have already stated my first 2 options are to keep him, but not at any cost.

 

[almostawake]

To me the question on Laine just comes down to what kind of contract he is looking for in the off season.

I don't have a lot of faith in his ability to round out his game and be a "play-driving" player long term.

So the question really becomes, what is a 50 goal scorer who kills on the PP but doesn't do much at ES beyond score actually worth?

In life you never get what you deserve, only what you have the leverage to negotiate.

Even with this slump, Laine has enormous leverage in negotiations with the Jets. And I'm certain his agent knows it.

So looking at 8 years 12 million or 5 years 10 million, will Laine ever really be worth those amounts in terms of how much he helps his team win?

 

[Bartho]

All this talk of trading Laine is crazy imo. The kid is definitely slumping, but I believe he'll return to form eventually.

 

[Duke749]

You keep talking about slumps and short-term thinking, but that is not necessarily the case. I couldn't care less about Laine's current slump--I've already factored him in for 40-50 goals per year. It's the rest of his game in a changing NHL I am concerned about, along with the opportunity cost of signing an expensive contract and not considering other options.
I have already stated my first 2 options are to keep him, but not at any cost.

This is decision making because of what’s happening in the short term. Same thing.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Haha--just because you put periods between the words doesn't make it true.

They. Are. Probably. Not. Trading. Laine--but never say never. I am a big supporter of the kid, a preacher of patience and never expected a trade...but circumstances change and one must adapt. Here is my current take:

Many young stars have been traded over the years--Seguin and Subban come to mind as obvious examples--and others, like Scheifele, are destined to spend their best years with their original teams. Using Scheifele as the prototype--he has great skill, great character, was on an upward trajectory at the end of his ELC and signed a team friendly deal. In both Seguin and Subban's cases there were concerns about character, and in Subban's case his contract was pretty hefty. There were doubts (IMO) about whether either had the right stuff to lead the team to the promised land.

Back to Laine. I see great skill in a narrow domain and great character. It's too early to talk about leadership. But there are a few related emerging concerns.
One is that he is a 'one trick pony' in a league that is better, faster and adapts moire quickly than ever before. That could mean that his goal production, while still substantial on the PP, could peak at 40-50 per year, rather than going into the stratosphere, as it would have in Brent Hull's day.
The second is that he will continue to be on the ice for so many GA that his 40-50 goals per year will be less of an asset than would otherwise been the case. The fact that he is such an outlier (-15) on the 2018-19 Wpg Jets is a real concern.
The final concern, and really the only reason I am even speculating about this, is that his contract is coming up at a time when his trajectory has flattened. For over a year I have been speculating that his camp could ask for 10M+ per year and that is just too big a risk. Matthews contract didn't do us any favours in that regard, as I don't imagine Chevy wanting anything shorter than 7-8 years on a LT deal. Matthews at 8 years would have cost north of $110M, but he is a slam dunk superstar. Laine isn't.
So, the options for Laine are, in order of my preference:
1) a team friendly 7-8 year contract (AAV ~8M), to mitigate his still-substantial risk.
2) a bridge
3) a trade with a team whose management or ownership are in love with the upside, dismiss the risk and/or need a star to draw attention and fans to their team.

We. Could. Get. A. Massive. Return. In. Trade. And. Lower. The. Risk. Of . A. Huge. Laine. Contract.

Not much to disagree with there, and I also agree on your 3 options for Laine, in order and term/moolah.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Laine has skills beyond a big shot. He has very good hands, good vision, very good passing, and he's huge. What he lacks is quickness and power. Those can be developed. Those saying he only has a good shot aren't seeing his full skillset.

I agree with this as well.

I have whittled down the list of people I haven't ignored to only people I agree with I think

 

[scelaton]

I agree with this as well.

I have whittled down the list of people I haven't ignored to only people I agree with I think

So, it's just the 3 of us here then?

 

[Adam da bomb]

It seems like ppl are fine with paying Laine whatever he wants. At what point as a GM would you trade Laine instead of paying him. I'd blink an eye at Matthews money and rather trade him than pay him. What is that number 10.5 11?

 

[HPsauce]

Would love to have Simmonds play here. I think Tanev Lowry Simmonds would be insanely good.

When does MP become the odd man out?

 

[DRW204]

Would love to have Simmonds play here. I think Tanev Lowry Simmonds would be insanely good.

When does MP become the odd man out?

MP should be used more. not less imo

 

[Mooche]

Would love to have Simmonds play here. I think Tanev Lowry Simmonds would be insanely good.

When does MP become the odd man out?

I'm not so sure Simmonds is really needed here... sure, it would be nice, but at what cost?

I would gladly put those resources into adding the 2C who could put this team over the top.