Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part VII

[DRW204]

If the Jets can't sign Trouba, should they target Jake Gardiner as a UFA? Almost certain that they could offer considerably more than the Leafs.

LHD, not sure how effective he is as a RD.

I don't mind Gardiner, he'd fit right in the Jets' Minnesota mafia. I think a team is going to overpay for him based on his point totals notably at 5v5

last 3 years:
16-17: 43 pts
17-18: 52 pts
18-19: 27 pts on pace for 43

edit: he has 73 5v5 pts over this time, good for 5th in the league for D. 1 pt behind John Carlson

 

[Whileee]

LHD, not sure how effective he is as a RD.

I don't mind Gardiner, he'd fit right in the Jets' Minnesota mafia. I think a team is going to overpay for him based on his point totals notably at 5v5

last 3 years:
16-17: 43 pts
17-18: 52 pts
18-19: 27 pts on pace for 43

Jets might need to shift their D power from RD to LD, if Trouba leaves.

 

[Ducky10]

Remember how Selanne had a bit of a "lull" in the couple of seasons after his historic rookie season? Jets traded him for what turned out to be peanuts.

One does not forget such things. A Laine deal at this stage could end up even worse.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Bergeron is not a comparable. He signed his deal in 2013 when the cap was much lower. it was over 10% of the cap at the time of signing.

Ehlers stats prior to signing: 102 points in 154 gp
Pastrnak's: 123 points in 172 gp

If you ask me, I'd take Pasta who has a better 200 foot game and could be a Selke Finalist. And similar goals. I would not pay the two similar AAV. Therefore, would hardly call Ehlers a discount as much as market value at the time. He signed a year early is that a discount or is that insurance that a bad year would not have him earning less.

 

[DRW204]

Jets might need to shift their D power from RD to LD, if Trouba leaves.

just dont think we can compete in the bidding war for Gardiner's services. he might be the best Dman once July 1st arrives on the market (assuming ek65 re-signs). Niku could be our Gardiner eventually

If you ask me, I'd take Pasta who has a better 200 foot game and could be a Selke Finalist. And similar goals.

agreed, but at the time of signing he had 123 pts in 172 gp. the last 2 years he's severely outplayed the contract but at the time of signing he put up 0.71 ppg. Ehlers was at 0.66 ppg

I don't think he'll be a Selke finalist. He also does play with Bergeron and Marchand - who both are very strong defensively

 

[Jimmyjets]

What team in recent memory moved a player as young and skilled as Laine?

The only name that really pops from recent memory is Seguin. That trade didn't turn out great for Boston.

 

[10Ducky10]

Remember how Selanne had a bit of a "lull" in the couple of seasons after his historic rookie season? Jets traded him for what turned out to be peanuts.

he played less than 100 games his next two seasons. He was injured.

I agree about Staal. He is a big guy and a very, very good veteran center. Chevy could probably re-sign him for two years as well.
I sure hope Chevy doesn't trade a king's ransom for a rental.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Minnesota really got kicked in the crotch with Koivu ripping up his knee and out for the year. Dumba may not be back as well this year.

Too bad Minnesota is still in the playoff hunt cause I sure would like to trade for Eric Staal. I think he would be just what the doctor ordered!

Why Staal? Dont u want a nik backstrom type instead? Cuz staal has the 2nd most shots in the league the last few years behind Ovi. Hes not a guy the Jets should be interested in

 

[Heldig]

Remember how Selanne had a bit of a "lull" in the couple of seasons after his historic rookie season? Jets traded him for what turned out to be peanuts.

Yup. A terrible deal and something Chevy is no doubt aware how badly that turned out for the franchise.

Trading Laine is a HUGE RISK. I think Chevy has shown to be very shrewd and IF he goes down that route I am confident he will get a good return that will make the team better.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

This looking bad thing I disagree with. Matthews has shown that players just want to be paid. This idea organizations by being loyal to the players will earn their loyalty is outdated as players aren't giving discounts they are looking for top dollar.

There might have been a time when players showed lifelong loyalty to an organization, but those days are long gone. Players are mercenaries, so they shouldn't be surprised when they occasionally get treated like The Expendables.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

Why Staal? Dont u want a nik backstrom type instead? Cuz staal has the 2nd most shots in the league the last few years behind Ovi. Hes not a guy the Jets should be interested in

I like Staal because he a big center from Thunder Bay who has played great the last two years, is currently on an offensively challenged team and has an expiring contract of 3.5m.

Are you saying you want to trade for Nik Backstrom or a player like Nik Backstrom, cause I don't believe he is available and he has a year left with cash owing of 8m next year. Also I don't feel like selling the farm on who ever we pick up.

Who are you categorizing as someone like Nik Backstrom and what tree is he falling off of?

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I like Staal because he a big center from Thunder Bay who has played great the last two years, is currently on an offensively challenged team and has an expiring contract of 3.5m.

Are you saying you want to trade for Nik Backstrom or a player like Nik Backstrom, cause I don't believe he is available and he has a year left with cash owing of 8m next year. Also I don't feel like selling the farm on who ever we pick up.

Who are you categorizing as someone like Nik Backstrom?

Laines trigger man lets say.. Like nik is to ovi

 

[Upperdeckjet]

Laines trigger man lets say.. Like nik is to ovi

Yes, yes I know, we must do everything to help Laine. However, you said Staal is not someone we should be interested in. I would now like to hear who specifically you would like to see us acquire. To help us win the Stanley Cup I mean, not Laine.

 

[ps241]

What team in recent memory moved a player as young and skilled as Laine?

Closest comparable would be Seguin but he did not have the same resume as Laine at the time of the trade. Later version of it would be Hall for Larsson.

 

[scelaton]

Not. Trading. Laine.

Haha--just because you put periods between the words doesn't make it true.

They. Are. Probably. Not. Trading. Laine--but never say never. I am a big supporter of the kid, a preacher of patience and never expected a trade...but circumstances change and one must adapt. Here is my current take:

Many young stars have been traded over the years--Seguin and Subban come to mind as obvious examples--and others, like Scheifele, are destined to spend their best years with their original teams. Using Scheifele as the prototype--he has great skill, great character, was on an upward trajectory at the end of his ELC and signed a team friendly deal. In both Seguin and Subban's cases there were concerns about character, and in Subban's case his contract was pretty hefty. There were doubts (IMO) about whether either had the right stuff to lead the team to the promised land.

Back to Laine. I see great skill in a narrow domain and great character. It's too early to talk about leadership. But there are a few related emerging concerns.
One is that he is a 'one trick pony' in a league that is better, faster and adapts moire quickly than ever before. That could mean that his goal production, while still substantial on the PP, could peak at 40-50 per year, rather than going into the stratosphere, as it would have in Brent Hull's day.
The second is that he will continue to be on the ice for so many GA that his 40-50 goals per year will be less of an asset than would otherwise been the case. The fact that he is such an outlier (-15) on the 2018-19 Wpg Jets is a real concern.
The final concern, and really the only reason I am even speculating about this, is that his contract is coming up at a time when his trajectory has flattened. For over a year I have been speculating that his camp could ask for 10M+ per year and that is just too big a risk. Matthews contract didn't do us any favours in that regard, as I don't imagine Chevy wanting anything shorter than 7-8 years on a LT deal. Matthews at 8 years would have cost north of $110M, but he is a slam dunk superstar. Laine isn't.
So, the options for Laine are, in order of my preference:
1) a team friendly 7-8 year contract (AAV ~8M), to mitigate his still-substantial risk.
2) a bridge
3) a trade with a team whose management or ownership are in love with the upside, dismiss the risk and/or need a star to draw attention and fans to their team.

We. Could. Get. A. Massive. Return. In. Trade. And. Lower. The. Risk. Of . A. Huge. Laine. Contract.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

If Boyle gets a 2nd, Petan can get a 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Saintb]

Closest comparable would be Seguin but he did not have the same resume as Laine at the time of the trade. Later version of it would be Hall for Larsson.

Kessel?

 

[Channelcat]

This looking bad thing I disagree with. Matthews has shown that players just want to be paid. This idea organizations by being loyal to the players will earn their loyalty is outdated as players aren't giving discounts they are looking for top dollar.

There has been a trend of treating the Leafs as a cash cow. Babcock, Matthews, Marner, Nylander and the list is endless going back. Part of the reason I don't think they will ever truly contend. Lets hope it stays in Toronto. We've certainly seen players be reasonable in other markets.

 

[Whileee]

Haha--just because you put periods between the words doesn't make it true.

They. Are. Probably. Not. Trading. Laine--but never say never. I am a big supporter of the kid, a preacher of patience and never expected a trade...but circumstances change and one must adapt. Here is my current take:

Many young stars have been traded over the years--Seguin and Subban come to mind as obvious examples--and others, like Scheifele, are destined to spend their best years with their original teams. Using Scheifele as the prototype--he has great skill, great character, was on an upward trajectory at the end of his ELC and signed a team friendly deal. In both Seguin and Subban's cases there were concerns about character, and in Subban's case his contract was pretty hefty. There were doubts (IMO) about whether either had the right stuff to lead the team to the promised land.

Back to Laine. I see great skill in a narrow domain and great character. It's too early to talk about leadership. But there are a few related emerging concerns.
One is that he is a 'one trick pony' in a league that is better, faster and adapts moire quickly than ever before. That could mean that his goal production, while still substantial on the PP, could peak at 40-50 per year, rather than going into the stratosphere, as it would have in Brent Hull's day.
The second is that he will continue to be on the ice for so many GA that his 40-50 goals per year will be less of an asset than would otherwise been the case. The fact that he is such an outlier (-15) on the 2018-19 Wpg Jets is a real concern.
The final concern, and really the only reason I am even speculating about this, is that his contract is coming up at a time when his trajectory has flattened. For over a year I have been speculating that his camp could ask for 10M+ per year and that is just too big a risk. Matthews contract didn't do us any favours in that regard, as I don't imagine Chevy wanting anything shorter than 7-8 years on a LT deal. Matthews at 8 years would have cost north of $110M, but he is a slam dunk superstar. Laine isn't.
So, the options for Laine are, in order of my preference:
1) a team friendly 7-8 year contract (AAV ~8M), to mitigate his still-substantial risk.
2) a bridge
3) a trade with a team whose management or ownership are in love with the upside, dismiss the risk and/or need a star to draw attention and fans to their team.

We. Could. Get. A. Massive. Return. In. Trade. And. Lower. The. Risk. Of . A. Huge. Laine. Contract.

Laine has skills beyond a big shot. He has very good hands, good vision, very good passing, and he's huge. What he lacks is quickness and power. Those can be developed. Those saying he only has a good shot aren't seeing his full skillset.

 

[Ducky10]

Laine has skills beyond a big shot. He has very good hands, good vision, very good passing, and he's huge. What he lacks is quickness and power. Those can be developed. Those saying he only has a good shot aren't seeing his full skillset.

I've given up trying to say this. I honestly have no idea what people watch. I get the frustration with Laine from time to time, but the "one trick pony" comments just lack all objectivity.

 

[ps241]

Laine has skills beyond a big shot. He has very good hands, good vision, very good passing, and he's huge. What he lacks is quickness and power. Those can be developed. Those saying he only has a good shot aren't seeing his full skillset.

I've given up trying to say this. I honestly have no idea what people watch. I get the frustration with Laine from time to time, but the "one trick pony" comments just lack all objectivity.

He has more way more than a big shot but he is not a line driver at this point IMO and I would have said the same thing in November when he was on a heater. Will he become one in the future is anyone's guess I suppose?

 

[Daximus]

Scoring is the most important talent in the NHL, so I'd be very reluctant to trade the best young scorer in the NHL.

Matthew's is pretty much right there with him so I'm not sure hes the bar none best. Guys like Pasta aren't far behind either. We dont seem to have any issues scoring when he isn't.

 

[Daximus]

His ability could set us up for years to come as well. Giving up a guy who already has the track record he does at 20 seems a bit reactionary .

I'm not saying we should definitely do it. But this slump while we are still winning is showing that we arent reliant on him to win games.

 

[Trinity]

Yup. A terrible deal and something Chevy is no doubt aware how badly that turned out for the franchise.

Trading Laine is a HUGE RISK. I think Chevy has shown to be very shrewd and IF he goes down that route I am confident he will get a good return that will make the team better.

Thing is it is not a huge risk if you can get an extended Mark Stone. If that trade were available, it'd actually be more of a risk not making that trade because Laine is unknown and Stone is established.

 

[Daximus]

Thing is it is not a huge risk if you can get an extended Mark Stone. If that trade were available, it'd actually be more of a risk not making that trade because Laine is unknown and Stone is established.

If Stone wanted to be here and was willing to sign a $8mil long term deal I'd just wait until he hits FA. Then look at flipping Laine for other assets. As wed have our LWs established in Ehlers and Connor and our RWs established in Wheeler and Stone.
I'd probably prefer to ship Laine out east so he cant torch us if he does develop into that top end scorer. But we could easily shore up our defence and get ourselves some futures in the process. Teams like Carolina, Florida, NJ, Philly might pony up some big offers for Laine.