Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part IX

[ffh]

How is that not saying anything about trading Laine?

Some risks have to be taken. Being an NHL GM is about taking risks every day. You want to wait until they have all played another 5 years and then trade the least of them. If that weakest one under-performs you don't get anything back. Meanwhile you have used up the primes of all of your best players with an unbalanced team that can't win.

Some people seem to have the idea that you only trade players you don't like. If you don't like them, no one else will either. If you want something you have to be prepared to pay. I'm sure you know that.

So take a carefully planned risk. Go and get what you need. Expect to have to pay for it.

what are you talking about. being a good gm isn't about taking risk its about not doing anything risky when you don't have to. like Chiarelli. there is no need to trade ehlers or connor or laine for a long time. for obvious reason. there is nothing to decide here we aint trading for a signed stone cause chevy isn't that stupid.

 

[ps241]

The Sens are delaying trying to drive up the prices. They have to move all there guys because of what happened with Karlsson last year. I think they want Vegas,Calgary,Nashville and San Jose to up the ante. But it is a buyers market out there and I think teams will wait to see what happens then react

Yea how did the delay strategy work out with Karlsson? They got cute and zany wacky Melynk meddled and they ended up leaving money on the table (from all accounts). I am not saying that Dorian shouldn't play the game a bit here but there was zero upside in playing Stone, Dutch, and Zinger last night. Either way we shall see how it plays out Dorian has some really prime assets here he should be able to add some impressive assets if he doesn't stub his dink.

 

[None]

The Bruins are probably interested, I trust Larry Brooks on that, but the guy reporting the asking price of Debrusk+++ is Jimmy Murphy. The same Jimmy Murphy who reported the Bruins were going to offersheet Trouba with a contract around 9m AAV.

 

[Winnipeg Jets]

Boston in on Stone. Looks like their putting together a nice package. I think Boston probably beats Jets offer. As others have said, Stone signing in Winnipeg could boost Winnipeg's offer, but I think the betting war will continue without Winnipeg.

Who knows what offers are actually on the table. That tweet was speculation. If that is the price then I will take a hard pass on Stone and look elsewhere so we don't need to subtract a substantial piece from our roster.

There's always a chance he signs in the offseason for free.

 

[Whileee]

100% this ^

With a total wing nut like Melnyk as the owner of the Sens there is zero chance Chevy is putting all his eggs in one basket. At this point it seems like they are pretty committed to adding at the deadline and there are going to be lots of options as a buyer.

If Stone gets to pricey, I would see them flipping over to the following options...

Duchene
Hayes

Zuccarello
Staal
Brassard

Dzingel
Johansson
Nyquist

When cooler heads prevail, I think that Chevy will realize that he has carefully built a very good organization and he's not going to blow it up with a big overpay for a rental forward, even one as good as Stone.

If the price is really high for Stone, you wonder whether they might also consider a C like Kreider, who would give them two playoff runs.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Someone should leak that the Jets may be moving on to Chris Kreider. That might be a better move....trade him in the summer and sign Stone then.

 

[Trinity]

Boston in on Stone. Looks like their putting together a nice package. I think Boston probably beats Jets offer. As others have said, Stone signing in Winnipeg could boost Winnipeg's offer, but I think the betting war will continue without Winnipeg.

I cant see Chevy getting into a bidding war. He'll make his best offer then leave it at that. If Stone doesn't work out he'll move onto Plan B. Chevy is methodical like that.

 

[jetdiehard]

Definitely, if we have room sign Stone this summer.
Don’t rearrange the team we have now plus our draft picks.

 

[bustamente]

I hear that the Jets are going to pursue all available rentals and will give up in return top picks and front line prospects, there that should drive up the market

 

[garret9]

Essentially playoff performance works out to what we expect given how good someone performs in the regular season, plus natural variance:
Do some players elevate their game in the playoffs? - NHL Numbers

In other words, if "playoff performers" was really a *big* deal, then we'd expect there to be more variance than there is.

Doesn't mean playoff performer or clutch doesn't exist... but it does mean that natural variance + overall how good they are >>>>>>> playoff performer or clutch.

 

[Winnipeg Jets]

Ottawa situation is putting a hold on everything I would assume.

 

[ffh]

Someone should leak that the Jets may be moving on to Chris Kreider. That might be a better move....trade him in the summer and sign Stone then.

not sure I understand. so we should leak something that isn't true then trade someone we don't have since its a rumor for stone in the summer.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

what are you talking about. being a good gm isn't about taking risk its about not doing anything risky when you don't have to. like Chiarelli. there is no need to trade ehlers or connor or laine for a long time. for obvious reason. there is nothing to decide here we aint trading for a signed stone cause chevy isn't that stupid.

Every contract they sign is guaranteed = risk
Every player they draft is unproven = risk
Make trade = risk
Do nothing = risk

It is nothing but risk.

 

[Whileee]

The Bruins are probably interested, I trust Larry Brooks on that, but the guy reporting the asking price of Debrusk+++ is Jimmy Murphy. The same Jimmy Murphy who reported the Bruins were going to offersheet Trouba with a contract around 9m AAV.

Sens continue to juice the media stories with rumours of high prices for their rentals. You can be pretty sure that buyers aren't leaking info of high prices, and Dorion seems to function this way.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

From what I understand, there is only 1 reason for the Jets to go with a sign and trade for Stone: retained salary. This would help the Sens reach the cap floor during their rebuild.

Someone here mentioned that to sign an 8 year contract, the player must be owned by that team before the trade deadline, so we can't sign him for 8 as an UFA, but we could if we get him as a rental first. Is this accurate? Do we even want to sign him for 7-8 years?

That is correct. He must be on our roster on or before the TD if we are to offer 8 years.

I think that if we want to sign him 7 years will be the minimum.

 

[Trinity]

Ottawa situation is putting a hold on everything I would assume.

Media uses the word "fascinating" way too much. Interesting, yes. Fascinating, no.

 

[bustamente]

Dorian may look foolish if Monday comes around and he still has 3 rentals available who are no closer to signing a contact to stay, and the teams connected with some of the talks concerning his rentals have gone elsewhere.

 

[Whileee]

Someone should leak that the Jets may be moving on to Chris Kreider. That might be a better move....trade him in the summer and sign Stone then.

That's not Chevy's MO. I think the Sens are up to all sorts of disinformation antics. They are pretty much desperate to get good returns on their three UFA rentals. But they are in a buyers' market, and teams like the Jets seem unlikely to get sucked into acting on media rumours.

 

[Whileee]

Dorian may look foolish if Monday comes around and he still has 3 rentals available who are no closer to signing a contact to stay, and the teams connected with some of the talks concerning his rentals have gone elsewhere.

Yup. As time goes on, the pressure starts to focus on big sellers like the Sens, especially in a market like this.

 

[Trinity]

That's not Chevy's MO. I think the Sens are up to all sorts of disinformation antics. They are pretty much desperate to get good returns on their three UFA rentals. But they are in a buyers' market, and teams like the Jets seem unlikely to get sucked into acting on media rumours.

I doubt Chevy pays any attention to Twitter.

 

[10Ducky10]

That is correct. He must be on our roster on or before the TD if we are to offer 8 years.

I think that if we want to sign him 7 years will be the minimum.

6 x 9m with the Sens retaining 2m.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

6 x 9m with the Sens retaining 2m.

I think that is a pipedream 1010.

Melnyk isn't the owner who would do that. 2milx 6 years is 12 million dollars right out of his pocket. And it still will take 7 or 8 years x whatever AAV. Us giving up more to accelerate the Sens rebuild won't carry any weight at that kind of price.

 

[Whileee]

I doubt Chevy pays any attention to Twitter.

Agree completely. He's talking directly to the other GMs. He doesn't get his info from social media.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Friedman also used Kypreos as his Stone source. so yeah.

Friedman isn't quite in Eklund territory but I don't believe he is a reliable 'source' for anything but his own meandering speculation.

 

[ffh]

Every contract they sign is guaranteed = risk
Every player they draft is unproven = risk
Make trade = risk
Do nothing = risk

It is nothing but risk.

listened to enough chevy interviews to say connor or ehlers aint going nowhere for a very long time. and trading a 30 goal scoring 21year old to fill a perceived hole on defence by would be gm's isn't happening either.