Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

[Adam da bomb]

You are making my point for me. Now add Kulikov to the casualty list. Except he is pretty hard to trade. Pick someone else to go instead. Even if we can move his contract we are taking another incremental reduction in the quality of the team. Who replaces Kulikov? Oh wait, I had him gone in year 3 already, when his contract expires. Another reason to pick someone else. Who's next?

Can we always just assume that the player we are most comfortable with losing will be the one some other team will be willing to take? I don't think so.

I found another little flaw in my spreadsheet. The replacement backup goalie salary wasn't included in the total. It is getting worse.

Here's the table again with that correction and Petan in for Perreault.

With No Bridges 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $5,600,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 Petan $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $925,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 Connor $925,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Copp $1,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 Dano $875,000 Lowry $3,200,000 $3,200,000 $3,200,000 Armia $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $5,750,000 Tanev $950,000 $950,000 $950,000 Vesalainen $925,000 $925,000 $34,785,832 $51,185,832 $56,541,666 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Trouba $6,250,000 $6,250,000 $6,250,000 Morrissey $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Poolman $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $5,500,000 Chiarot $1,750,000 $1,750,000 $1,750,000 Morrow $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Samberg $1,000,000 $28,408,333 $28,408,333 $29,800,000 Hellebuyck $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Mason $4,100,000 xxx $1,200,000 $1,200,000 2 Goalies $9,600,000 $6,700,000 $6,700,000 23 Players Total $72,794,165 $86,294,165 $93,041,666 Projected cap at ~4% increase $80,000,000 $83,500,000 $87,000,000 Possible Bonuses $3,895,000 $x,xxx,xxx $x,xxx,xxx [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Moving MP made the first year better. We now have comfortable room for the bonuses. But years 2 & 3 are right out of control. We now have to move one of our top players. Who should it be? Ehlers? Connor? Someone else?

With that correction for a backup goalie, even the version with all the bridges goes a little over. We need to find about a million in savings somewhere.

I'm back to my original statement. I don't think we have any real choice here. We have to start bridging pretty near everybody. The alternative is not squeezing $$$ out of the middle and bottom. It is losing at least one of our prized possessions.

Give Laine 8.5 instead of 9.5. There's a million in savings. Or move Buff in year 3 and you just saved 7.6 which can be shared amongst a number of players. Bridge Niku and only have a highly paid top pairing. Give Connor 5.5 instead of 6 as he hasn't been in the NHL as long as Ehlers. Year 3 is where you move little at expansion draft. Only give Mo long term and bridge Connor Roslo it's not all or nothing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They take a mixed approach but do tend to like to use the three year bridge deal. Having said that it is going to catch up to them next offseason when they have to ink Point and Kucherov. They will also have to fill 3 of 4 top defense slots either through FA or trade.

They have been on the edge of a knife for a while. Yzerman has so far been able to keep all the balls in the air. I thought he had run out of room a couple of years ago already. He got Stamkos re-signed and kept on going.

In my projections I have kept all the bridges to 2 years. I don't like taking them too close to UFA. So far it looks to me like it works out as far as I can realistically project. There is even a bit of wiggle room in years 4 & 5 - if the cap keeps rising at about 4% per year. The 2 year bridges match the expiring contracts pretty well.

When I added in the cost of a backup goalie I used up all the room I had in years 2 & 3 and there is no room for bonus money so something still needs to be done. Fortunately there shouldn't be much bonus in those years. But the tightness there only underscores the need for the bridge deals. It is even worse without them.

 

[Whileee]

Even still, having our MVP play out of position to address a non-need would be stupid.

Wheeler got 40 points on the PP, because he was the main set-up player. He can still play the same position on the PP.

I like Wheeler a lot for a range of reasons, but he had 51 points outside of the PP, which translates to 2.08 points per 60 minutes 5v5. That trailed Roslovic, Connor, Scheifele, Ehlers and Lowry. Also, I wasn't crazy about the advanced metrics of the Scheifele-Wheeler line, particularly earlier in the season.

I am concerned with Wheeler at C, as you are. But I think the Jets might need to look at various options at C, especially if Little isn't able to maintain his level of play. My first option would be to put Roslovic at C, and see how he does.

But I still won't be that surprised if Maurice decides to try Wheeler at C again.

 

[surixon]

You are making my point for me. Now add Kulikov to the casualty list. Except he is pretty hard to trade. Pick someone else to go instead. Even if we can move his contract we are taking another incremental reduction in the quality of the team. Who replaces Kulikov? Oh wait, I had him gone in year 3 already, when his contract expires. Another reason to pick someone else. Who's next?

Can we always just assume that the player we are most comfortable with losing will be the one some other team will be willing to take? I don't think so.

I found another little flaw in my spreadsheet. The replacement backup goalie salary wasn't included in the total. It is getting worse.

Here's the table again with that correction and Petan in for Perreault.

With No Bridges 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $5,600,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 Petan $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $925,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 Connor $925,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Copp $1,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 Dano $875,000 Lowry $3,200,000 $3,200,000 $3,200,000 Armia $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $5,750,000 Tanev $950,000 $950,000 $950,000 Vesalainen $925,000 $925,000 $34,785,832 $51,185,832 $56,541,666 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Trouba $6,250,000 $6,250,000 $6,250,000 Morrissey $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Poolman $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $5,500,000 Chiarot $1,750,000 $1,750,000 $1,750,000 Morrow $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Samberg $1,000,000 $28,408,333 $28,408,333 $29,800,000 Hellebuyck $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Mason $4,100,000 xxx $1,200,000 $1,200,000 2 Goalies $9,600,000 $6,700,000 $6,700,000 23 Players Total $72,794,165 $86,294,165 $93,041,666 Projected cap at ~4% increase $80,000,000 $83,500,000 $87,000,000 Possible Bonuses $3,895,000 $x,xxx,xxx $x,xxx,xxx [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Moving MP made the first year better. We now have comfortable room for the bonuses. But years 2 & 3 are right out of control. We now have to move one of our top players. Who should it be? Ehlers? Connor? Someone else?

With that correction for a backup goalie, even the version with all the bridges goes a little over. We need to find about a million in savings somewhere.

I'm back to my original statement. I don't think we have any real choice here. We have to start bridging pretty near everybody. The alternative is not squeezing $$$ out of the middle and bottom. It is losing at least one of our prized possessions.

You squeeze the middle and the bottom if need be.

Chariot at 1.75 million is a luxury item 2 years down the line. We shouldn't ever be paying a press box guy over $1 million moving forward. He can be replaced by a cheap FA pickup. By that time we should hopefully have some players on the Moose who can sub in for injuries if needed in Green, Stanley, Nogier, Kovacevik and Samberg.

Other creative ways to manage the roster would be to offer Petan a 2 year 800-900k per year one way deal such as the org gave Armia, Chariot and Postma back in the day as they where just establishing themselves. It gives him guaranteed cash and a roster spot but also builds locks in a solid depth.

Just doing those two moves saves about 1.7 million in cap space. You also bridge Conner as there is too much cash already allocated to our Wingers (He gets the Tampa 3 year special) Now you are able to make the cap while only losing Chariot form the roster.

 

[Whileee]

They have been on the edge of a knife for a while. Yzerman has so far been able to keep all the balls in the air. I thought he had run out of room a couple of years ago already. He got Stamkos re-signed and kept on going.

In my projections I have kept all the bridges to 2 years. I don't like taking them too close to UFA. So far it looks to me like it works out as far as I can realistically project. There is even a bit of wiggle room in years 4 & 5 - if the cap keeps rising at about 4% per year. The 2 year bridges match the expiring contracts pretty well.

When I added in the cost of a backup goalie I used up all the room I had in years 2 & 3 and there is no room for bonus money so something still needs to be done. Fortunately there shouldn't be much bonus in those years. But the tightness there only underscores the need for the bridge deals. It is even worse without them.

Getting Stamkos on a 8.5M AAV was crucial. That was quite a discount, all things considered.

 

[surixon]

Getting Stamkos on a 8.5M AAV was crucial. That was quite a discount, all things considered.

Gotta love the tax situation if your Steve. Helps him out immensey when a player will still net similiar to what he would on a 10 million dollar contract elsewhere.

 

[kcin94]

Nothing particularly surpising

https://www.tsn.ca/agent-jets-petan-on-outside-looking-in-1.1109159

 

[Adam da bomb]

Getting Stamkos on a 8.5M AAV was crucial. That was quite a discount, all things considered.

Has laine proved more than Stamkos. If 8.5 will do stamkos a player like Laine who doesn't seem concerned with material things should be happy with the same.

 

[DRW204]

Has laine proved more than Stamkos. If 8.5 will do stamkos a player like Laine who doesn't seem concerned with material things should be happy with the same.

on the basis of % cap hit, Stamkos' deal is 11.64% at the time of signing, which is about 9.3M AAV on 80M cap. It was a UFA deal so Stamkos had several more seasons under his belt including 3 90+ pt years and 57 pts in 48 gp (lockout). Had 2 Rockets under his belt, 2 years of 50+ goals, and 2 seasons at a 50 goal or more pace (lockout and broken leg year paced at 49.5).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If the Jets move Kulikov after next season (i.e. before 2019/20), I think they will be in decent shape for that season.

Roslovic and Niku look on the high side for 2020/21. They seem like good candidates for bridge contracts.

I had Rosie and Niku bridged originally. I only have 2 versions. All bridges and no bridges. Somewhere in between is an option, of course. These tables aren't necessarily meant to be real. They illustrate a point.

I don't think Kulikov is moveable at all right now. If he has a decent and healthy season that changes. I always thought we overpaid him so I am still skeptical of moving him. But 1 year at 4.333 doesn't look as bad as 3 years. Someone is probably willing to take the risk for only 1 year. Also, a couple of years of cap inflation make that 4.333 look more in line with value.

The problem is a replacement. I've used a couple of promising prospects in my projections. They may not work out but maybe some other prospect does. If not, we might need a trade or two. In the case of Kulikov, I have assumed Samberg can replace him when his contract expires. Accelerating that a year makes replacing him that much harder.

 

[Adam da bomb]

on the basis of % cap hit, Stamkos' deal is 11.64% at the time of signing, which is about 9.3M AAV on 80M cap. It was a UFA deal so Stamkos had several more seasons under his belt including 3 90+ pt years and 57 pts in 48 gp (lockout). Had 2 Rockets under his belt, 2 years of 50+ goals, and 2 seasons at a 50 goal or more pace (lockout and broken leg year paced at 49.5).

So paying Laine 8.5 mil is realistic as he has not achieved all that.

 

[Whileee]

I had Rosie and Niku bridged originally. I only have 2 versions. All bridges and no bridges. Somewhere in between is an option, of course. These tables aren't necessarily meant to be real. They illustrate a point.

I don't think Kulikov is moveable at all right now. If he has a decent and healthy season that changes. I always thought we overpaid him so I am still skeptical of moving him. But 1 year at 4.333 doesn't look as bad as 3 years. Someone is probably willing to take the risk for only 1 year. Also, a couple of years of cap inflation make that 4.333 look more in line with value.

The problem is a replacement. I've used a couple of promising prospects in my projections. They may not work out but maybe some other prospect does. If not, we might need a trade or two. In the case of Kulikov, I have assumed Samberg can replace him when his contract expires. Accelerating that a year makes replacing him that much harder.

I agree that Kulikov is not tradeable now. However, as you note, he would likely be more easy to move after this upcoming season, especially if he is healthy. The Jets would have the option of retaining a bit of salary to facilitate a trade, if necessary. I think that Niku and/or Morrow along with Chiarot would fill in for him on LD after next season, as needed. I think Samberg is likely a couple of years away, though I think his development arc has been very good. There's an outside chance that he could slot in on a 3rd pair as early as 2019/20 if he has a really good season in the NCAA next season.

 

[DRW204]

So paying Laine 8.5 mil is realistic as he has not achieved all that.

not necessarily, Stamkos 1st deal post ELC was a 7.5M x 5 year deal, which was 11.66% of the cap at the time.

Mix in FLA lack of tax and Stamkos playing a more coveted position too

1st two season stats:
Stamkos:

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EVG	PPG	SHG	GWG	EVA	PPA	SHA	S	S%	TSA	TOI	ATOI	FOW	FOL	FO%	HIT	BLK	TK	GV	Awards
2008-09	18	TBL	NHL	79	23	23	46	-13	39	14	9	0	1	15	8	0	181	12.7	329	1180	14:56	253	304	45.4	75	17	49	33	Calder-9
2009-10	19	TBL	NHL	82	51	44	95	-2	38	26	24	1	5	27	17	0	297	17.2	530	1685	20:33	475	517	47.9	68	38	47	52	AS-3,AS-7,Byng-15,Hart-6,Richard-1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Laine:

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EVG	PPG	SHG	GWG	EVA	PPA	SHA	S	S%	TSA	TOI	ATOI	FOW	FOL	FO%	HIT	BLK	TK	GV	Awards
2016-17	18	WPG	NHL	73	36	28	64	7	26	27	9	0	5	23	5	0	204	17.6	360	1308	17:55	0	3	0	80	33	43	55	AS-6,Byng-49,Calder-2
2017-18	19	WPG	NHL	82	44	26	70	8	24	24	20	0	8	15	11	0	241	18.3	466	1351	16:29	11	32	25.6	74	43	29	51

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Give Laine 8.5 instead of 9.5. There's a million in savings. Or move Buff in year 3 and you just saved 7.6 which can be shared amongst a number of players. Bridge Niku and only have a highly paid top pairing. Give Connor 5.5 instead of 6 as he hasn't been in the NHL as long as Ehlers. Year 3 is where you move little at expansion draft. Only give Mo long term and bridge Connor Roslo it's not all or nothing.

There is all kinds of room to make variations on my projections. But I don't think you can just arbitrarily decide to pay these players less. I've tried to guess real market values. You can dispute my estimates of the market. You can't decide to pay less than market because of market value not fitting your budget.

You also can't just assume you can easily move all the players who are in your way. If you move Buff you need to replace him. Not just any replacement level D man but one with his level of ability.

I agree though that it doesn't have to be all or nothing. I'm trying to keep it as simple as possible. I think that is the best way of dealing with the uncertainty of trying to predict the future.

In my projections we have some room in the first year. So we could sign JoMo long term and then bridge everyone after that and probably make it work. It would be very tight and we would have to move Perreault right away. But we could manage the rest.

I'm not saying there can't be variations. I am saying that we will have to extensively use bridge deals to manage the cap. I think a policy of bridging all but the elite players works best. You will notice that even in my all bridge version I never suggested bridging Laine.

 

[Adam da bomb]

There is all kinds of room to make variations on my projections. But I don't think you can just arbitrarily decide to pay these players less. I've tried to guess real market values. You can dispute my estimates of the market. You can't decide to pay less than market because of market value not fitting your budget.

You also can't just assume you can easily move all the players who are in your way. If you move Buff you need to replace him. Not just any replacement level D man but one with his level of ability.

I agree though that it doesn't have to be all or nothing. I'm trying to keep it as simple as possible. I think that is the best way of dealing with the uncertainty of trying to predict the future.

In my projections we have some room in the first year. So we could sign JoMo long term and then bridge everyone after that and probably make it work. It would be very tight and we would have to move Perreault right away. But we could manage the rest.

I'm not saying there can't be variations. I am saying that we will have to extensively use bridge deals to manage the cap. I think a policy of bridging all but the elite players works best. You will notice that even in my all bridge version I never suggested bridging Laine.

You don't need an equivalent D you just structure team differently. Others taking more load or weaker d stronger o. So just any top 4 d.

 

[Adam da bomb]

not necessarily, Stamkos 1st deal post ELC was a 7.5M x 5 year deal, which was 11.66% of the cap at the time.

Mix in FLA lack of tax and Stamkos playing a more coveted position too

1st two season stats:
Stamkos:

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EVG	PPG	SHG	GWG	EVA	PPA	SHA	S	S%	TSA	TOI	ATOI	FOW	FOL	FO%	HIT	BLK	TK	GV	Awards
2008-09	18	TBL	NHL	79	23	23	46	-13	39	14	9	0	1	15	8	0	181	12.7	329	1180	14:56	253	304	45.4	75	17	49	33	Calder-9
2009-10	19	TBL	NHL	82	51	44	95	-2	38	26	24	1	5	27	17	0	297	17.2	530	1685	20:33	475	517	47.9	68	38	47	52	AS-3,AS-7,Byng-15,Hart-6,Richard-1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Laine:

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EVG	PPG	SHG	GWG	EVA	PPA	SHA	S	S%	TSA	TOI	ATOI	FOW	FOL	FO%	HIT	BLK	TK	GV	Awards
2016-17	18	WPG	NHL	73	36	28	64	7	26	27	9	0	5	23	5	0	204	17.6	360	1308	17:55	0	3	0	80	33	43	55	AS-6,Byng-49,Calder-2
2017-18	19	WPG	NHL	82	44	26	70	8	24	24	20	0	8	15	11	0	241	18.3	466	1351	16:29	11	32	25.6	74	43	29	51

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Stamkos numbers year 2 numbers are better plus didn't have serious health problems that Laine has with his knees.

 

[Adam da bomb]

There is all kinds of room to make variations on my projections. But I don't think you can just arbitrarily decide to pay these players less. I've tried to guess real market values. You can dispute my estimates of the market. You can't decide to pay less than market because of market value not fitting your budget.

You also can't just assume you can easily move all the players who are in your way. If you move Buff you need to replace him. Not just any replacement level D man but one with his level of ability.

I agree though that it doesn't have to be all or nothing. I'm trying to keep it as simple as possible. I think that is the best way of dealing with the uncertainty of trying to predict the future.

In my projections we have some room in the first year. So we could sign JoMo long term and then bridge everyone after that and probably make it work. It would be very tight and we would have to move Perreault right away. But we could manage the rest.

I'm not saying there can't be variations. I am saying that we will have to extensively use bridge deals to manage the cap. I think a policy of bridging all but the elite players works best. You will notice that even in my all bridge version I never suggested bridging Laine.

Also how is Ehlers more elite than Connor?

 

[DRW204]

Stamkos numbers year 2 numbers are better plus didn't have serious health problems that Laine has with his knees.

Serious problems with his knees?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Serious problems with his knees?

There was a thing about how Laines development was held back because he lost a season to knee problems.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You squeeze the middle and the bottom if need be.

Chariot at 1.75 million is a luxury item 2 years down the line. We shouldn't ever be paying a press box guy over $1 million moving forward. He can be replaced by a cheap FA pickup. By that time we should hopefully have some players on the Moose who can sub in for injuries if needed in Green, Stanley, Nogier, Kovacevik and Samberg.

Other creative ways to manage the roster would be to offer Petan a 2 year 800-900k per year one way deal such as the org gave Armia, Chariot and Postma back in the day as they where just establishing themselves. It gives him guaranteed cash and a roster spot but also builds locks in a solid depth.

Just doing those two moves saves about 1.7 million in cap space. You also bridge Conner as there is too much cash already allocated to our Wingers (He gets the Tampa 3 year special) Now you are able to make the cap while only losing Chariot form the roster.

Agree that Chia is overpaid. I haven't given him a big raise. Maybe I shouldn't have gone even that far. I think the mistake was going to 1.4 in the first place.

But otherwise you are pretty limited in how much you can save. Squeezing a guy from 1 mil down to 900k isn't much of a saving. Doing that to 5 guys is still only a half mil. At least some of the time that you are squeezing the bottom and middle you are taking a quality hit to do it.

In my no bridge scenario I had 12 players at 5.3 or above. They averaged 6.335 = 76 mil. That left 11 mil for the other 11 players. I don't think you can have that sharp a divide between the top and bottom. Your depth is going to be terrible.

I still wouldn't do the 3 year bridge for Connor. Two gets the job done. I think Chiarot is easily enough replaced in a year from now.

We can sign JoMo long term without much pain. But then we bridge everybody else. So this whole thing becomes about JoMo. 2 bridge or not 2 bridge - him. I don't see that as being such a big issue. If Connor has a strong sophomore year it could turn out to be harder to bridge him than Morrissey. I am not afraid of bridging JoMo. I don''t think it will cost massively down the road. I don't think it will make him an unhappy camper. Two years at 3 mil+, followed by the rest of his career at 6.5+. It will retain some flexibility, room for bonuses and injuries. It will help establish the pattern of bridging just about everybody so that the next guy doesn't get his panties in a knot.

 

[surixon]

not necessarily, Stamkos 1st deal post ELC was a 7.5M x 5 year deal, which was 11.66% of the cap at the time.

Mix in FLA lack of tax and Stamkos playing a more coveted position too

1st two season stats:
Stamkos:

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EVG	PPG	SHG	GWG	EVA	PPA	SHA	S	S%	TSA	TOI	ATOI	FOW	FOL	FO%	HIT	BLK	TK	GV	Awards
2008-09	18	TBL	NHL	79	23	23	46	-13	39	14	9	0	1	15	8	0	181	12.7	329	1180	14:56	253	304	45.4	75	17	49	33	Calder-9
2009-10	19	TBL	NHL	82	51	44	95	-2	38	26	24	1	5	27	17	0	297	17.2	530	1685	20:33	475	517	47.9	68	38	47	52	AS-3,AS-7,Byng-15,Hart-6,Richard-1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Laine:

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EVG	PPG	SHG	GWG	EVA	PPA	SHA	S	S%	TSA	TOI	ATOI	FOW	FOL	FO%	HIT	BLK	TK	GV	Awards
2016-17	18	WPG	NHL	73	36	28	64	7	26	27	9	0	5	23	5	0	204	17.6	360	1308	17:55	0	3	0	80	33	43	55	AS-6,Byng-49,Calder-2
2017-18	19	WPG	NHL	82	44	26	70	8	24	24	20	0	8	15	11	0	241	18.3	466	1351	16:29	11	32	25.6	74	43	29	51

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Stamkos didn't sign until after his third season at which point he had another 90 plus point season under his belt. Having said that he only signed for 5 years. I have a hard time seeing Laine get as much as Stamkos on an equivilint term deal as Stamkos had shown a sustained higher level then Laine has shown to date as well as having won the rocket.

Now if Laine signs for 8 years I can see him getting a similiar percentage of the cap which would put him in the 9m25 to 9.5 range.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Agree that Chia is overpaid. I haven't given him a big raise. Maybe I shouldn't have gone even that far. I think the mistake was going to 1.4 in the first place.

But otherwise you are pretty limited in how much you can save. Squeezing a guy from 1 mil down to 900k isn't much of a saving. Doing that to 5 guys is still only a half mil. At least some of the time that you are squeezing the bottom and middle you are taking a quality hit to do it.

In my no bridge scenario I had 12 players at 5.3 or above. They averaged 6.335 = 76 mil. That left 11 mil for the other 11 players. I don't think you can have that sharp a divide between the top and bottom. Your depth is going to be terrible.

I still wouldn't do the 3 year bridge for Connor. Two gets the job done. I think Chiarot is easily enough replaced in a year from now.

We can sign JoMo long term without much pain. But then we bridge everybody else. So this whole thing becomes about JoMo. 2 bridge or not 2 bridge - him. I don't see that as being such a big issue. If Connor has a strong sophomore year it could turn out to be harder to bridge him than Morrissey. I am not afraid of bridging JoMo. I don''t think it will cost massively down the road. I don't think it will make him an unhappy camper. Two years at 3 mil+, followed by the rest of his career at 6.5+. It will retain some flexibility, room for bonuses and injuries. It will help establish the pattern of bridging just about everybody so that the next guy doesn't get his panties in a knot.

In that case shouldn't we have bridged Ehlers?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Getting Stamkos on a 8.5M AAV was crucial. That was quite a discount, all things considered.

Yes. I think Yzerman has a built in advantage. Fla taxes & climate along with a pretty good organization and fan support will lead to a lot of team friendly contracts. Panthers don't have those last 2 so aren't quite so blessed.

But other teams have also found ways to deal with the cap. TO seemed to be in a hopeless situation just a few years ago. Now they have turned around their roster and have cap space to work with at the same time.

It is always a little surprising how GM's can find ways to manage the cap but there are limits to that. We always come back to seeing that Chevy is going to have his hands full for the next several years. This is the real test.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You don't need an equivalent D you just structure team differently. Others taking more load or weaker d stronger o. So just any top 4 d.

If you keep taking incremental hits to the quality of your players you are soon a bubble team again.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Also how is Ehlers more elite than Connor?

Who said that?