Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

[Adam da bomb]

OK, move Perreault. I still believe it should be policy to bridge most players. Laine I sign for as long as possible, as soon as possible. Morrissey isn't going to suddenly score 60 points pumping up his next contract.

Mo might get a lot more points if he takes Myers spot on 2nd pp. also aren't D paid well for other things than just putting up points?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Mo might get a lot more points if he takes Myers spot on 2nd pp. also aren't D paid well for other things than just putting up points?

Sure they are paid for more than points - and I budgeted 6.5 mil for him. He isn't going to get 60 points by playing 2PP, nor 50 either. It would take that kind of scoring, on top of his D to get him higher than that.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Sure they are paid for more than points - and I budgeted 6.5 mil for him. He isn't going to get 60 points by playing 2PP, nor 50 either. It would take that kind of scoring, on top of his D to get him higher than that.

Isn't Trouba looking at 7mil? Since we bridged him instead of signing him long term.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

Isn't Trouba looking at 7mil? Since we bridged him instead of signing him long term.

I don't think he gets 7 mil.

 

[HannuJ]

I don't think he gets 7 mil.

pretty sure he'll get darn close to it. maybe 6.5 x 5

 

[DJBiffWPG]

pretty sure he'll get darn close to it. maybe 6.5 x 5

I’d take that.

 

[surixon]

Sure they are paid for more than points - and I budgeted 6.5 mil for him. He isn't going to get 60 points by playing 2PP, nor 50 either. It would take that kind of scoring, on top of his D to get him higher than that.

It would only take 40-45 points to get him greater than 7 million. Zack Bogosian got 8% of the cap for crying out loud. An equiviliant deal on a 87 million cap is $6.96 million. Nick Leddy a mid to upper 30 point player (boasted by PP points, JoMo is tracking better at ES scoring) also got 8%, Trouba if he gets 6.5 million this summer is 8.1% of the cap. An equiviliant deal to Morrissey would put him at $7.1 million.

With an 87 million cap a good all around 1st pairing dmen is getting 7 million. If he turns into dominant all around dmen 50 plus points your looking at $8 plus million. Just wait for the next round of contracts to the elite dmen of the league start trickling in over the next few years.

 

[Maukkis]

I tend to agree with you. I think it's more likely that the Jets look for shorter term solutions at C. The only way they go for Stastny is for a deal that they can move in a couple of seasons.

Also, I still think the Jets will consider Wheeler as a potential option to fill the #2 C position.

No, nope, nada, nej, ei, non. Forget it.

Wheeler as the 1C was not a success. PDO was the only thing keeping that boat afloat, period. Going back to that is not an option.

 

[Whileee]

No, nope, nada, nej, ei, non. Forget it.

Wheeler as the 1C was not a success. PDO was the only thing keeping that boat afloat, period. Going back to that is not an option.

I am not strongly advocating for this, but indicating that I think the Jets will consider it. He certainly can't carry a 1st line, but judging based on facing top competition with a couple of very young wingers is also a skewed evaluation. Wheeler with Perreault and Armia or Roslovic might not struggle against 2nd line competition.

Connor-Scheifele-Laine
Ehlers-Little-Roslovic
Perreault-Wheeler-Armia

...as an example.

 

[surixon]

I am not strongly advocating for this, but indicating that I think the Jets will consider it. He certainly can't carry a 1st line, but judging based on facing top competition with a couple of very young wingers is also a skewed evaluation. Wheeler with Perreault and Armia or Roslovic might not struggle against 2nd line competition.

Connor-Scheifele-Laine
Ehlers-Little-Roslovic
Perreault-Wheeler-Armia

...as an example.

He didn't play top comp that was Little's line. I am not at all a fan of the Wheeler at C. Especially if he is going to be making crazy money in a year. He will greatly under perform his next contract if he is moved to C.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It would only take 40-45 points to get him greater than 7 million. Zack Bogosian got 8% of the cap for crying out loud. An equiviliant deal on a 87 million cap is $6.96 million. Nick Leddy a mid to upper 30 point player (boasted by PP points, JoMo is tracking better at ES scoring) also got 8%, Trouba if he gets 6.5 million this summer is 8.1% of the cap. An equiviliant deal to Morrissey would put him at $7.1 million.

With an 87 million cap a good all around 1st pairing dmen is getting 7 million. If he turns into dominant all around dmen 50 plus points your looking at $8 plus million. Just wait for the next round of contracts to the elite dmen of the league start trickling in over the next few years.

OK, then dispute my number of 6.5 mil. I don't claim my estimates are perfect. Some will be higher than my numbers. Some will be lower. It isn't intended, or expected to be a perfect picture of what will happen.

The point is that not bridging the young players now will cost us players as we go forward. I made up an example to keep as many as possible. First because of a desire to keep the team together and second, simply because of the extreme difficulty of predicting who will stay and who will go. So I kept it as close as possible to what we have now. I think it will end up being a pretty accurate exercise because variations will offset each other.

Even with as many bridges as possible we lose Myers right off the bat. Now you don't want to bridge Morrissey so we lose Perreault too. That is the point. Every time we do not bridge 1 player we have to lose 1 other player. Maybe we keep Myers for a year and lose Perreault first instead. That change is irrelevant to the picture though. It is just one of the offsetting variations.

The important thing is that I am able to lay out a picture where every bridged player's long term contract, after the bridge deal, is provided for without losing any players except to age. You cannot do that if you sign all the good young players long term out of their ELC's.

Nailing every contract amount in the estimates is not the point, as long as they are all close enough to continue to fit under the cap.

 

[Adam da bomb]

OK, then dispute my number of 6.5 mil. I don't claim my estimates are perfect. Some will be higher than my numbers. Some will be lower. It isn't intended, or expected to be a perfect picture of what will happen.

The point is that not bridging the young players now will cost us players as we go forward. I made up an example to keep as many as possible. First because of a desire to keep the team together and second, simply because of the extreme difficulty of predicting who will stay and who will go. So I kept it as close as possible to what we have now. I think it will end up being a pretty accurate exercise because variations will offset each other.

Even with as many bridges as possible we lose Myers right off the bat. Now you don't want to bridge Morrissey so we lose Perreault too. That is the point. Every time we do not bridge 1 player we have to lose 1 other player. Maybe we keep Myers for a year and lose Perreault first instead. That change is irrelevant to the picture though. It is just one of the offsetting variations.

The important thing is that I am able to lay out a picture where every bridged player's long term contract, after the bridge deal, is provided for without losing any players except to age. You cannot do that if you sign all the good young players long term out of their ELC's.

Nailing every contract amount in the estimates is not the point, as long as they are all close enough to continue to fit under the cap.

I just don't think your desire to keep everyone is very realistic. Look how Washington has been willing to lose depth, Perrault, to keep together the core, Mo it's the nature of the beast. Keeping Perrault and Myers ignores the reality of the cap. How much depth does TB, caps, penguins have?

 

[Whileee]

WFP article with the provocative headline: "Petan's agent sour on the Jets".

Then the article shows that neither Petan nor his agent are "sour on the Jets", but they are hoping for an opportunity with the big club. If room doesn't open up, then the agent says that it might be better for Petan to get an opportunity elsewhere. He also points out that Petan loves the city and the organization and wants a chance here, and that they haven't requested a trade.

Misleading headline...

Petan's agent sour on Jets

 

[GaryPoppins]

WFP article with the provocative headline: "Petan's agent sour on the Jets".

Then the article shows that neither Petan nor his agent are "sour on the Jets", but they are hoping for an opportunity with the big club. If room doesn't open up, then the agent says that it might be better for Petan to get an opportunity elsewhere. He also points out that Petan loves the city and the organization and wants a chance here, and that they haven't requested a trade.

Misleading headline...

Petan's agent sour on Jets

Jason Bell is a hack at the best of times. His title completely contradicts the agent's statement in the article.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Further to the issue of bridges, here is the same table with no bridges.

With Bridges 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $5,600,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 Perreault $4,125,000 $4,125,000 $4,125,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $925,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 Connor $925,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Copp $1,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 Dano $875,000 Lowry $3,200,000 $3,200,000 $3,200,000 Armia $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $5,750,000 Tanev $950,000 $950,000 $950,000 Vesalainen $925,000 $925,000 $37,910,832 $53,810,832 $58,666,666 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Trouba $6,250,000 $6,250,000 $6,250,000 Morrissey $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Poolman $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $5,500,000 Chiarot $1,750,000 $1,750,000 $1,750,000 Morrow $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Samberg $1,000,000 $28,408,333 $28,408,333 $29,800,000 Hellebuyck $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Mason $4,100,000 xxx $1,200,000 $1,200,000 2 Goalies $9,600,000 $6,700,000 $6,700,000 23 Players Total $75,919,165 $88,919,165 $95,166,666 Projected cap at ~4% increase $80,000,000 $83,500,000 $87,000,000 Possible Bonuses $3,895,000 $x,xxx,xxx $x,xxx,xxx [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This still has Perreault in, so you can deduct his 4.125 mil but he needs to be replaced so put something like 1 mil back in for xxx, whoever his replacement is. Lets say it is either Petan or Lemieux on 1 year deals. If they are successful in the role they will get raises in the subsequent years. So figure 1, then 1.5, then 2 mil. That is assuming modest success and less productivity than we had with Perreault. If they have greater success then they will have to be paid accordingly.

 

[surixon]

WFP article with the provocative headline: "Petan's agent sour on the Jets".

Then the article shows that neither Petan nor his agent are "sour on the Jets", but they are hoping for an opportunity with the big club. If room doesn't open up, then the agent says that it might be better for Petan to get an opportunity elsewhere. He also points out that Petan loves the city and the organization and wants a chance here, and that they haven't requested a trade.

Misleading headline...

Petan's agent sour on Jets

Yeah that was a dumb headline. It sounds like he really likes the city and org but realizes it will be tough to break in. Sounds to me like he wants to make it work here if possible.

 

[drumzan]

Jason Bell is a hack at the best of times. His title completely contradicts the agent's statement in the article.

A lot of times it’s the editor that writes the headline. Lawless confirmed that when he worked for the freep.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Further to the issue of bridges, here is the same table with no bridges.

With Bridges 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $5,600,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 Perreault $4,125,000 $4,125,000 $4,125,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $925,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 Connor $925,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Copp $1,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 Dano $875,000 Lowry $3,200,000 $3,200,000 $3,200,000 Armia $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $5,750,000 Tanev $950,000 $950,000 $950,000 Vesalainen $925,000 $925,000 $37,910,832 $53,810,832 $58,666,666 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Trouba $6,250,000 $6,250,000 $6,250,000 Morrissey $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Poolman $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $5,500,000 Chiarot $1,750,000 $1,750,000 $1,750,000 Morrow $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Samberg $1,000,000 $28,408,333 $28,408,333 $29,800,000 Hellebuyck $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Mason $4,100,000 xxx $1,200,000 $1,200,000 2 Goalies $9,600,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 23 Players Total $75,919,165 $87,719,165 $93,966,666 Projected cap at ~4% increase $80,000,000 $83,500,000 $87,000,000 Possible Bonuses $3,895,000 $x,xxx,xxx $x,xxx,xxx [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This still has Perreault in, so you can deduct his 4.125 mil but he needs to be replaced so put something like 1 mil back in for xxx, whoever his replacement is. Lets say it is either Petan or Lemieux on 1 year deals. If they are successful in the role they will get raises in the subsequent years. So figure 1, then 1.5, then 2 mil. That is assuming modest success and less productivity than we had with Perreault. If they have greater success then they will have to be paid accordingly.

So Kulikov and Perrault would both need to be traded. Then you are still under cap. If Seattle takes/ we trade Little or Buff we are golden in 2020/21.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just don't think your desire to keep everyone is very realistic. Look how Washington has been willing to lose depth, Perrault, to keep together the core, Mo it's the nature of the beast. Keeping Perrault and Myers ignores the reality of the cap. How much depth does TB, caps, penguins have?

It is only partly a desire to keep everyone. It is more about the difficulty of predicting the future. You could take all the names out and just leave the numbers. If it isn't player x, it will be player y. You need some players in the middle. I don't think you can build a team with 10 players making 6.5 mil each and 13 making 1 mil each ( = 78 mil btw)

TBL are a good comparison, I think. They have been bridging their young players for a few years already. Or at least I think they have. I haven't gone and taken an in depth look.

 

[Maukkis]

I am not strongly advocating for this, but indicating that I think the Jets will consider it. He certainly can't carry a 1st line, but judging based on facing top competition with a couple of very young wingers is also a skewed evaluation. Wheeler with Perreault and Armia or Roslovic might not struggle against 2nd line competition.

Connor-Scheifele-Laine
Ehlers-Little-Roslovic
Perreault-Wheeler-Armia

...as an example.

Even still, having our MVP play out of position to address a non-need would be stupid.

 

[Adam da bomb]

It is only partly a desire to keep everyone. It is more about the difficulty of predicting the future. You could take all the names out and just leave the numbers. If it isn't player x, it will be player y. You need some players in the middle. I don't think you can build a team with 10 players making 6.5 mil each and 13 making 1 mil each ( = 78 mil btw)

TBL are a good comparison, I think. They have been bridging their young players for a few years already. Or at least I think they have. I haven't gone and taken an in depth look.

What would be a fun, most likely terrible idea, is create a thunder dome situation between Ehlers and Connor. Keep whoever has the better season and trade the loser.

 

[surixon]

It is only partly a desire to keep everyone. It is more about the difficulty of predicting the future. You could take all the names out and just leave the numbers. If it isn't player x, it will be player y. You need some players in the middle. I don't think you can build a team with 10 players making 6.5 mil each and 13 making 1 mil each ( = 78 mil btw)

TBL are a good comparison, I think. They have been bridging their young players for a few years already. Or at least I think they have. I haven't gone and taken an in depth look.

They take a mixed approach but do tend to like to use the three year bridge deal. Having said that it is going to catch up to them next offseason when they have to ink Point and Kucherov. They will also have to fill 3 of 4 top defense slots either through FA or trade.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So Kulikov and Perrault would both need to be traded. Then you are still under cap. If Seattle takes/ we trade Little or Buff we are golden in 2020/21.

You are making my point for me. Now add Kulikov to the casualty list. Except he is pretty hard to trade. Pick someone else to go instead. Even if we can move his contract we are taking another incremental reduction in the quality of the team. Who replaces Kulikov? Oh wait, I had him gone in year 3 already, when his contract expires. Another reason to pick someone else. Who's next?

Can we always just assume that the player we are most comfortable with losing will be the one some other team will be willing to take? I don't think so.

I found another little flaw in my spreadsheet. The replacement backup goalie salary wasn't included in the total. It is getting worse.

Here's the table again with that correction and Petan in for Perreault.

With No Bridges 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $5,600,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 Petan $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $925,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 Connor $925,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Copp $1,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 Dano $875,000 Lowry $3,200,000 $3,200,000 $3,200,000 Armia $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $5,750,000 Tanev $950,000 $950,000 $950,000 Vesalainen $925,000 $925,000 $34,785,832 $51,185,832 $56,541,666 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Trouba $6,250,000 $6,250,000 $6,250,000 Morrissey $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Poolman $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $5,500,000 Chiarot $1,750,000 $1,750,000 $1,750,000 Morrow $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Samberg $1,000,000 $28,408,333 $28,408,333 $29,800,000 Hellebuyck $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Mason $4,100,000 xxx $1,200,000 $1,200,000 2 Goalies $9,600,000 $6,700,000 $6,700,000 23 Players Total $72,794,165 $86,294,165 $93,041,666 Projected cap at ~4% increase $80,000,000 $83,500,000 $87,000,000 Possible Bonuses $3,895,000 $x,xxx,xxx $x,xxx,xxx [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Moving MP made the first year better. We now have comfortable room for the bonuses. But years 2 & 3 are right out of control. We now have to move one of our top players. Who should it be? Ehlers? Connor? Someone else?

With that correction for a backup goalie, even the version with all the bridges goes a little over. We need to find about a million in savings somewhere.

I'm back to my original statement. I don't think we have any real choice here. We have to start bridging pretty near everybody. The alternative is not squeezing $$$ out of the middle and bottom. It is losing at least one of our prized possessions.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What would be a fun, most likely terrible idea, is create a thunder dome situation between Ehlers and Connor. Keep whoever has the better season and trade the loser.

2 go in .....
Yeah, mostly terrible. But I don't think we should completely rule out the possibility of trading any top players. It all depends on getting the right return.

 

[Whileee]

You are making my point for me. Now add Kulikov to the casualty list. Except he is pretty hard to trade. Pick someone else to go instead. Even if we can move his contract we are taking another incremental reduction in the quality of the team. Who replaces Kulikov? Oh wait, I had him gone in year 3 already, when his contract expires. Another reason to pick someone else. Who's next?

Can we always just assume that the player we are most comfortable with losing will be the one some other team will be willing to take? I don't think so.

I found another little flaw in my spreadsheet. The replacement backup goalie salary wasn't included in the total. It is getting worse.

Here's the table again with that correction and Petan in for Perreault.

With No Bridges 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 Little $5,291,666 $5,291,666 $5,291,666 Wheeler $5,600,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000 Petan $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 Scheifele $6,125,000 $6,125,000 $6,125,000 Ehlers $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Laine $925,000 $9,500,000 $9,500,000 Connor $925,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Copp $1,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,800,000 Dano $875,000 Lowry $3,200,000 $3,200,000 $3,200,000 Armia $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 Roslovic $894,166 $894,166 $5,750,000 Tanev $950,000 $950,000 $950,000 Vesalainen $925,000 $925,000 $34,785,832 $51,185,832 $56,541,666 Byfuglien $7,600,000 $7,600,000 $7,600,000 Trouba $6,250,000 $6,250,000 $6,250,000 Morrissey $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Poolman $1,200,000 $1,200,000 $1,200,000 Niku $775,000 $775,000 $5,500,000 Chiarot $1,750,000 $1,750,000 $1,750,000 Morrow $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 Kulikov $4,333,333 $4,333,333 Samberg $1,000,000 $28,408,333 $28,408,333 $29,800,000 Hellebuyck $5,500,000 $5,500,000 $5,500,000 Mason $4,100,000 xxx $1,200,000 $1,200,000 2 Goalies $9,600,000 $6,700,000 $6,700,000 23 Players Total $72,794,165 $86,294,165 $93,041,666 Projected cap at ~4% increase $80,000,000 $83,500,000 $87,000,000 Possible Bonuses $3,895,000 $x,xxx,xxx $x,xxx,xxx [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Moving MP made the first year better. We now have comfortable room for the bonuses. But years 2 & 3 are right out of control. We now have to move one of our top players. Who should it be? Ehlers? Connor? Someone else?

With that correction for a backup goalie, even the version with all the bridges goes a little over. We need to find about a million in savings somewhere.

I'm back to my original statement. I don't think we have any real choice here. We have to start bridging pretty near everybody. The alternative is not squeezing $$$ out of the middle and bottom. It is losing at least one of our prized possessions.

If the Jets move Kulikov after next season (i.e. before 2019/20), I think they will be in decent shape for that season.

Roslovic and Niku look on the high side for 2020/21. They seem like good candidates for bridge contracts.