Rumour, Trade and Free Agent Discussion 2020/21 - Part III

[surixon]

That's the hard part because once Scheifele walks our 1C is gone. After that 29 year old Connor, 29 year old Ehlers and 31 year old Morrissey will likely want raises and long term deals. If we just let every insgle good player walk at 30 because we don't want to pay them we will have to draft like the best team in the history of the league to maintain any sort of competitive core.

We are 4 years away from having to make that type of call, for all we know Mark isn't number 1 C quality by then. Maybe we draft his replacement this year or trade for a budding one. So much can happen that its not really worth discussing.

I don't have an issue paying fair market value on a reasonable term for aging players ala the Buff deal. I have issues topping that amount up with an extra year or a higher cap hit due to a player feeling they were underpaid on a previous contract.

 

[Daximus]

We are 4 years away from having to make that type of call, for all we know Mark isn't number 1 C quality by then. Maybe we draft his replacement this year or trade for a budding one. So much can happen that its not really worth discussing.

I don't have an issue paying fair market value on a reasonable term for aging players ala the Buff deal. I have issues topping that amount up with an extra year or a higher cap hit due to a player feeling they were underpaid on a previous contract.

Not thinking about these kinds of things now is what gets you in trouble down the road. If Scheifele isn't a 1C by then, ridiculously unlikely, then we let him walk and none one cares. What if by then he's become into a 40 goal, 100 points 1C and wants $11mil on an 8 year contract and we have no other options? What if by then Ehlers is a 30 goal scoring 90 point winger? And wants something similar? Do you just let them walk because they finally want to get paid?

 

[surixon]

Not thinking about these kinds of things now is what gets you in trouble down the road. If Scheifele isn't a 1C by then, ridiculously unlikely, then we let him walk and none one cares. What if by then he's become into a 40 goal, 100 points 1C and wants $11mil on an 8 year contract and we have no other options? What if by then Ehlers is a 30 goal scoring 90 point winger? And wants something similar? Do you just let them walk because they finally want to get paid?

Well I would peg both of those scoring totals as very unlikely but point noted. Simply put it comes down to what you have in the system, cap space available and what you need. Yes management needs to have some plans in place but a lot of those plans should be dictated on level of performance of the player not just on player A is a X right now and will be X when it is time for a new deal. That may or may not be what transpires. As mentioned I have no issue paying Scheifele a $9 million contract if he is still a quality first line center but at age 31 I would prefer to only do it for 4 or 5 years.

 

[voyageur]

Some here and (especially)in the other HF boards seem to forget this article wtitten by Laine himself:

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/patrik-laine-winnipeg-jets-nhl

If Laine wants out its nothing against the city itself, the lifestyle or his teammates. It would be solely on management/coaching/his usage. If that is the case, you would hear the same rumblings from his camp if he were in a sunny warm hotspot like LA or big market like NY

2018 was a good year for him. He finished that campaign as our leading goal scorer, hitting 44, got the big boost from Stastny. Our PP was a beast. But then Buff started yelling at him to skate. He had to play with Bryan Little (poor kid) and led the team with a -24, while Connor became a more prolific scorer, with our star centre. There was pressure on him to improve.

He's different than some of our core players, who spend their time studying hockey, when not playing. Others spend their time training. He's like a big kid, with his obsession with video games. Maybe he doesn't feel as much at home as he did then.

But hopefully he has a good season this year, that's all I care about.

I'm not sure we have mismanaged Laine at all. Just watch the highlights of that last regular season game with Edmonton, and tell me Wheeler can't play on a top line. Laine has to work on that chemistry with Nik to give us the maximum 1-2 punch, that should be our strength. He's going to get a different centre this year, if he stays.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We won’t, that’s not the issue, wasn’t the issue or point with Trouba.....the point with Trouba was trading him with one year of team control left reduced his value.....which no one can deny. This is the point with Laine, if Chevy knows he won’t sign then don’t hold onto him aka Trouba 2.0. But as you say we don’t know that at this point, but I’m fairly sure Chevy knows which is what makes this offseason so interesting

Chevy may or may not know. We don't even know that there is anything to know. But next year still won't be Trouba 2.0 because there will be 2 years left, not 1 and because Laine is not Trouba. Laine doesn't even have a wife yet, AFAIK.

We have no reason to suspect a similar situation here. There has been no indication of similar issues. By the time Trouba had only 3 years left, he had asked for a trade and held out to force a bridge deal, clearly angling for UFA. Laine signed a bridge deal, amicably as far as we know, to buy time to show what he is worth, apparently angling for a big contract. Very different context for a bridge deal.

Are we going to go through this speculation every time a player does not sign long term right out of his ELC, forever?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah the buying team would only be on the hook for $2.5m this coming season and then only $6m for the next 3 years after. If and it's a big if Nylander can be a 2C, I think it's worth the gamble.

Connor - Scheif - Wheeler
Laine - Nylander - Ehlers

Could be a pretty good top 6. It's been said Nylander prefers C but statistically he's been better at RW. Though his linemates have also been better when he plays wing. Rosie and a 2021 1st might be enough. But I think we may still get outbid by other teams. Might have to include more but it all depends on what Dubas wants to do. There will certainly be a big market for Nylander if he hits it. Only other RW's to score more 5v5 goals are Pastrnak and Kucherov. So even as a top 6 wing option he will be highly coveted by many teams at that price. Even at $6m he's a good deal but to only be on the hook for $2.5 this year. He'll be highly sought after by some teams who find themselves in a bit of a pickle right now but project they may be out of it by the end of next season.

I think the Jury is out on him at 2C. He played C a bit in his first and/or 2nd year. He performed pretty well in the role - for a rookie/2nd year player. All things are relative. Has been used at C only very sparingly since then. He was always a C until the TML. With them, he has always played behind good, well established C's, except for Matthews. No one should expect Nylander to compare with Matthews. Not sure, but I think he played C for the Marlies. I think the data set of C in the NHL is too small to judge, especially with most of it coming when he was very young and inexperienced.

If we did get him to play 2C, we should expect some adjustment time. I doubt he would hit the ground running.

If he failed in the 2C role, he would still be a top 6 RW. That would be the future Wheeler replacement, or it could free up the trade of 1 of our other top 6 wingers. Could be any of the 3 but Laine would still be the most likely.

Every team is in a bit of a financial pickle right now. Most teams are also in a cap pickle. With a need for little to no cap going back the other way, there won't be many teams that can take on his cap hit. We would also be having to watch the cap commitment very closely. We could also find ourselves in the position of needing to move some cap in a tight market.

 

[BatVader]

Yeah the buying team would only be on the hook for $2.5m this coming season and then only $6m for the next 3 years after. If and it's a big if Nylander can be a 2C, I think it's worth the gamble.

Connor - Scheif - Wheeler
Laine - Nylander - Ehlers

Could be a pretty good top 6. It's been said Nylander prefers C but statistically he's been better at RW. Though his linemates have also been better when he plays wing. Rosie and a 2021 1st might be enough. But I think we may still get outbid by other teams. Might have to include more but it all depends on what Dubas wants to do. There will certainly be a big market for Nylander if he hits it. Only other RW's to score more 5v5 goals are Pastrnak and Kucherov. So even as a top 6 wing option he will be highly coveted by many teams at that price. Even at $6m he's a good deal but to only be on the hook for $2.5 this year. He'll be highly sought after by some teams who find themselves in a bit of a pickle right now but project they may be out of it by the end of next season.

I was more thinking of Ny as a replacement for Laine if we had to move him.
Trade Laine for 2C or top 4 RHD and bring in Nylander to play the RW.

 

[DRW204]

I was more thinking of Ny as a replacement for Laine if we had to move him.
Trade Laine for 2C or top 4 RHD and bring in Nylander to play the RW.

nylander would cost alot id think. depending who the 2c is, i think you can get away with maybe a guy like palmeiri or granlund on rw. would be less in cap hit too

 

[BatVader]

nylander would cost alot id think. depending who the 2c is, i think you can get away with maybe a guy like palmeiri or granlund on rw. would be less in cap hit too

true, but my issue is that Wheeler is 34 and at any time his play could fall off a cliff and we need someone able to step in to fill that 1RW role. I was hoping that would be Laine, (still am), but if he gets moved we’d need to replace that option and Nylander does that.
It’s the whole reason I keep bringing up Puljujarvi. If he works out we have a possible 2RW replacement when Laine gets moved up.

I guess if we get Nylander to play 2C and Wheeler craps out, we still have the option to move him over... but then we’d be back at square 1 looking for a 2C.

 

[HannuJ]

Pieterangelo? I find it interesting that someone could loath a city without living in it for any length of time. But to each there own.

think about it.
after a game, they'd go to....Earls on Main for food and drink?
they walking from the hotel? if so...yeah...
walking from Portage and Main during the summer isn't the most pleasant of walks (it's either dead or it feels unsavoury) or during January/February?
compare that to going out after a game in LA or Vegas.

Winnipeg: a great place to raise a family. Not a great place to vacation in

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Would Frost+Myers+Farabee+2020 1st be enough?

Yes.

In fact, I think Frost + Myers + 1st would get my attention.

Frost is not quite ready yet, unless he takes a step forward by the time TC rolls around. But he is highly skilled. Probably a good bet.

Myers is ready. Might be more of a 2nd pair guy. Remains to be seen.

The 1st is a little late, but there will still be good players available at 23.

There is a fair bit of risk for us in that package, so it would be nice to also get Farabee.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Imho, that's an overpay by Philly. I'd do that in less than a heartbeat. We'd probaby have to take money back though.

Then pry nylander out of TO (hopefully ves as a base, but I'd consider heinola) and re-sign demelo

Connor Schief Wheeler
Ehlers Frost Nylander
Copp lowry roslovic
Harkins Gus Appleton

Jomo Demelo
Samberg Myers
Heinola Pionk

Does the cap work on that?

What did you give TML for Nylander? NVM, I see it was Ves. I think it takes more than him + 1st. I don't think the bidding would be as high as some are predicting. Not many teams will have the cap space to give them an all futures return. But they will also need replacement players, so Ves might be a good start.

 

[Hunter368]

I would be game to get Nylander as our 2C, but he would cost more then 10th OA and Ves.......Ves doesn’t hold much value overall IMO. Heinola or Samberg would likely be the ask plus. Nylander would be the dynamic 2C we need, he’s on a decent contract and is solid defensively.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Tampa wins the Cup, you will know that defense wins championships. Hedman-Mc Donaugh/Sergachev is as good of 1-2-3 punch as you get. And they have the goalie.

Up front, the Lightning are winging without Stamkos, relying on Kucherov-Point-Palat, and beyond that are you saying Cirelli-Killorn are highly skilled? Like Ehlers-Laine? Gourde? They have had an impact from their grit guys Maroon, Goodrow, Paquette, Coleman, which probably put them over the top.

I know I am usually right when no one responds.

"I know I am usually right when no one responds"
That's not how it works.

If TBL wins, then we will know that that exact mix of players won - this time. It doesn't prove anything else. Not that defense win championships (dumbest thing ever said in sports). Not that skill wins. Not that grit wins.

TBL added grit and experience after last year's quick exit. It may or may not work out for them. We'll see if things fall into place for them this year.

 

[DRW204]

true, but my issue is that Wheeler is 34 and at any time his play could fall off a cliff and we need someone able to step in to fill that 1RW role. I was hoping that would be Laine, (still am), but if he gets moved we’d need to replace that option and Nylander does that.
It’s the whole reason I keep bringing up Puljujarvi. If he works out we have a possible 2RW replacement when Laine gets moved up.

I guess if we get Nylander to play 2C and Wheeler craps out, we still have the option to move him over... but then we’d be back at square 1 looking for a 2C.

what about josh anderson? he had a bad year this year i think he was coming off a serious shoulder injury, but was 32nd in the league in 5v5 goals from '16-'19 (27th in 5v5 goals/60) with 51 goals. Could be a good buy low guy and adds some physicality and bite to our top 6 which we sorely lack

get a 2c and top4 rhd for Laine

Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler
Ehlers-(2c from Laine trade)-Anderson?

Don't think Anderson would cost as much as Nylander to acquire, also have to be wary about the cap i'd think and i don't know if he would get 7M which Nylander is at. i think id rather have anderson over pool-party. iirc pool-party cant play in the NHL this year (could be wrong).

I would be game to get Nylander as our 2C, but he would cost more then 10th OA and Ves.......Ves doesn’t hold much value overall IMO. Heinola or Samberg would likely be the ask plus. Nylander would be the dynamic 2C we need, he’s on a decent contract and is solid defensively.

Nylander and Ehlers together would be hella fun. if we somehow can make it work and have a 2nd line of Ehlers-Nylander-Laine, look out.

 

[nhlpro]

What did you give TML for Nylander? NVM, I see it was Ves. I think it takes more than him + 1st. I don't think the bidding would be as high as some are predicting. Not many teams will have the cap space to give them an all futures return. But they will also need replacement players, so Ves might be a good start.

Lineup looks like poop without a Laine

 

[Buffdog]

What did you give TML for Nylander? NVM, I see it was Ves. I think it takes more than him + 1st. I don't think the bidding would be as high as some are predicting. Not many teams will have the cap space to give them an all futures return. But they will also need replacement players, so Ves might be a good start.

Ugh I'd be hesitant to give up one of heinola or samberg but I may actually do it. We'd be dealing from a position of surplus to fill a need, which is how assets should be used. You have to give to get.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What about Brassard as our 2C?

UFA so could just sign him for free, maybe 2 year deal as a bridge solution. At the draft we target the best centre available at 10th OA, hopefully he's ready in two years. Brassard only earned 1.2 million this year, so would likely come cheap cap wise, giving us more space to add to our D.

GP 66, goals 10, assists 22, pts 32

13:42 ice time per game only, on the Jets he would get far more ice time and more points (maybe 50 points roughly). Only limited PP time in NYI, he would get more with the Jets. He currently played this year on a very defensive minded team/coach, could produce more here possibly.

Not a sexy signing or trade, but could be very pragmatic, not requiring any big winger to be traded, no big contract commitment, don't require giving up our 10th OA pic, etc.

Thoughts?

He's already on the downside of his career. More of a 3C now than a 2C.

Might be worth a shot, if he comes cheaply enough.

 

[Hunter368]

He's already on the downside of his career. More of a 3C now than a 2C.

Might be worth a shot, if he comes cheaply enough.

cheap and short term was my idea

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Lineup looks like poop without a Laine

Looks a little empty.
But it could be good with a better mix and more depth.

 

[Whileee]

Chevy may or may not know. We don't even know that there is anything to know. But next year still won't be Trouba 2.0 because there will be 2 years left, not 1 and because Laine is not Trouba. Laine doesn't even have a wife yet, AFAIK.

We have no reason to suspect a similar situation here. There has been no indication of similar issues. By the time Trouba had only 3 years left, he had asked for a trade and held out to force a bridge deal, clearly angling for UFA. Laine signed a bridge deal, amicably as far as we know, to buy time to show what he is worth, apparently angling for a big contract. Very different context for a bridge deal.

Are we going to go through this speculation every time a player does not sign long term right out of his ELC, forever?

For star players, the Jets will always need to be careful after a bridge deal.

 

[Hunter368]

For star players, the Jets will always need to be careful after a bridge deal.

Agreed. Winnipeg is not a top destination for players, especially top end players. This will always be an issue with stars potentially.

 

[Buffdog]

He's already on the downside of his career. More of a 3C now than a 2C.

Might be worth a shot, if he comes cheaply enough.

Him or Haula might both be worth a look if the deal was short enough

 

[Jack722]

(I know this isn't a roster thread but it plays a part in trades)

Shocked at how many want to run CSW again. Hasn't that line been a little bit middling for a long time now?

I think either you have to aim at ESW, ESL... OR, perhaps CSW could work well if Ehlers is given the #1 powerplay half-wall spot? Wheeler might shine more at 5-5 with a bit of minute reduction, and Ehlers absolutely deserves a heap more minutes IMO.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Are we going to go through this speculation every time a player does not sign long term right out of his ELC, forever?

I think you already know the answer to that question.

"I know I am usually right when no one responds"
That's not how it works.

True. When my comments are met with crickets, I just assume everyone thinks I'm an idiot and are quietly and respectfully doing a .