Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2020-21 Pt. VI

[The Winter Soldier]

I like Hainsey, but signing him now means an inflated cap hit, no?

Isles would probably have to use their remaining LTIR. I think the salary can be prorated also.

 

[seabass45]

I think if it is a 2 year deal - it brings him to 26, so I think he would be an rfa

EDIT - You are correct. He would have accrued 7 seasons, so he would be a UFA, so do you a 1 year deal? Or go with a similar deal they gave Bailey - 5 year 5 AAV?

I feel like he would have to crash badly to end up with a one year "prove it" deal. Assuming he gets back to his usual pace (20-25 goals), something around the Bailey contract sounds about right.

 

[beach]

He can ask, anyone can ask, but that doesn't mean he should get. If someone wants to pay him 4 mil, I'll look forward to saluting him at his first game back against the Isles.

Would love to bring him back for under 3 mil for 2 years. Anything more is foolish. He's a role player on the wrong side of 30, with a game that doesn't age well. You shouldn't pay a 4th liner big bucks, and he plays a style way too risky for a long term deal at his age.

I love CC, but if he asks too much, I think Czarnik could play the same role. Maybe not as well, but suitably.

 

[crasherino]

I love CC, but if he asks too much, I think Czarnik could play the same role. Maybe not as well, but suitably.

Koivula would be up for that spot as well. He may not be the same player as Cizikas is, but considering Cal and Matty are there, Koivula could add a different skill set to the 4th line and still be successful.

I'd love to have Casey back, but if he's looking for $3m+ over 4 years (and well he should), I'm just not sure if it makes sense for this team. It may, but we have other priorities as well.

 

[buud]

of course i want Zeeky to stay, but we have cap issues. at least until the expansion draft, when either Bailey or Eberle goes. maybe Leddy? i would be ok with losing any one of them. it will be a blow, but if it means that we hang on to Sorokin, Beau, and Pelech... it must be.

 

[SI]

Perusing expansion list -

Yandle and Ghost might be exposed by their respected teams - add Chiarot who also might be left exposed - leaving Leddy Pretty safe.

that would be a Great leftside D for Seattle

 

[IslesNorway]

Perusing expansion list -

Yandle and Ghost might be exposed by their respected teams - add Chiarot who also might be left exposed - leaving Leddy Pretty safe.

that would be a Great leftside D for Seattle

Seattle's gonna make out like bandits at that draft. With so many teams in cap trouble they'll be able to pick a lot of good players and shore up on draft picks at the same time.

 

[leeroggy]

The cost to acquire someone better than Hickey is not worth it.

I'm not sure that is true. I was thinking about Jon Merrill on Detroit, who is a $975,000 annual hit and UFA after this season. A swap for Hickey might only require a decent prospect or a 3rd round pick. If it was Hickey and Bellows for Merrill it wouldn't hurt us at all. Merrill has shown he can handle playoff minutes and LL overlapped with him in NJ, so there's familiarity. Right now it looks like Bellows is not going to dress again unless a rash of injuries hit. Meanwhile we open up enough cash for next year with Hickey's hit gone to make a difference. Merrill could become Greene's replacement if he retires after this and he could be the bridge to Bolduc. Wouldn;t we have to expose Bellows anyhow for Seattle? He's starting to fall back down the prospect chart.

 

[GrandmaSlices51631]

Perusing expansion list -

Yandle and Ghost might be exposed by their respected teams - add Chiarot who also might be left exposed - leaving Leddy Pretty safe.

that would be a Great leftside D for Seattle

For an Expansion squad, no doubt. Lots of offensive punch but kind of questionable on the shutdown game.

 

[leeroggy]

I will keep this very simple, a reasonable hockey trade could be something like C/RW Sam Gagner ($850,000 and an impending UFA) and LD Jon Merrill ($925,00 and also an impending UFA) for Hickey and the Isles or Colorado's 2022 second rounder.

The money easily works this season, the Isles acquire some veteran depth up front (Gagner is having a surprisingly good season and can be moved around in the lineup) and on the blueline (so they don't have to use Aho if they don't trust him and an injury occurs). All while completely shedding Hickey's $2.5 million for next season, which at least helps alleviate a bit of the overall cap crunch.

Detroit adds a second rounder for their troubles, which is only paying out $833,000 over two seasons if they want to buy Hickey out.

A second rounder for that is very fair and both teams benefit.

Leo is also NOT unmovable going into the final year of his contract. He has one year left with a $3 million cap hit but only makes $2 million in real money. Leo is probably easier to trade than Hickey, because he is still a viable NHL player and can be bought out over two years at only $666,667 in real money.

Leo would have a slightly bigger cap hit than buying out Hickey, but a team like Detroit could actually use him and probably wouldn't opt to buy him out. But if they do, it doesn't really impact them right now.

I also would prefer to keep Uncle Leo around for that final season and simply bury him in the AHL, for a $1.125 million cap savings, and have him on hand if needed as depth.

With respect to next year, the Isles three key players to extend are Beauvillier, Pelech and Sorokin. There are other moves that will need to be made, but those three are the important contracts.

Another possibility is Bellows and Hickey for Merrill, keeping the pick. Bellows is starting to look like the odd man out as Dal Colle is winning that 3rd line spot from him. That also means we need to add Dal Colle to likely contract needs next season. I'd rather trade Bellows in something like this if he is going to be exposed to Seattle.

 

[SI]

Another possibility is Bellows and Hickey for Merrill, keeping the pick. Bellows is starting to look like the odd man out as Dal Colle is winning that 3rd line spot from him. That also means we need to add Dal Colle to likely contract needs next season. I'd rather trade Bellows in something like this if he is going to be exposed to Seattle.

The problem with using Koivula and or Bellows as trade bait to move Hickey or even Komarov is that both have to be protected in the expansion or the team risks losing them and they both need waivers next season - if you are a team acquiring a bad contract my feeling is you want picks or prospects that don’t need to be protected and are waiver exempt

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I have to think Bellows will be left unprotected for the expansion draft, there is a possibility he will be picked by Seattle. Trading him for help this year would not be out of the question. Have to consider the impacts of the expansion draft this summer.

 

[Chardo]

I have to think Bellows will be left unprotected for the expansion draft, there is a possibility he will be picked by Seattle. Trading him for help this year would not be out of the question. Have to consider the impacts of the expansion draft this summer.

Bellows is exempt from the draft. First and second year NHL players are exempt and don't have to be protected.

 

[mouser]

Isles would probably have to use their remaining LTIR. I think the salary can be prorated also.

If the team uses LTIR to sign a player then the contract AAV is not pro-rated. Although the actual salary the player receives is pro-rated.

e.g. At this moment CapFriendly shows the Isles with $1.27m in LTIR relief available. They could sign a UFA to a $1.27m AAV (inflated) contract. Face value of the contract would be $744k, with the actual pro-rated compensation received by the player for the rest of the season being $436k.

Formulas
- 48 days out of 116 into season
- Face value of contract = Inflated * (116-48)/116
- Pro-rated compensation received = Face Value * (116-48)/116

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Bellows is exempt from the draft. First and second year NHL players are exempt and don't have to be protected.

I took it as AHL years counting. I did read that part of first and second year NHL players.

First & Second Year Pros

All players who have accrued two or less professional seasons at the end of the 2020-21 season, as well as all unsigned draft choices appearing on the teams reserve list, will be exempt from the upcoming expansion draft.

Expansion Draft FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[SI]

If the team uses LTIR to sign a player then the contract AAV is not pro-rated. Although the actual salary the player receives is pro-rated.

e.g. At this moment CapFriendly shows the Isles with $1.27m in LTIR relief available. They could sign a UFA to a $1.27m AAV (inflated) contract. Face value of the contract would be $744k, with the actual pro-rated compensation received by the player for the rest of the season being $436k.

Formulas
- 48 days out of 116 into season
- Face value of contract = Inflated * (116-48)/116
- Pro-rated compensation received = Face Value * (116-48)/116

Could that 1.27 m in LTIR relief go to performance bonuses?

 

[SI]

Bellows is exempt from the draft. First and second year NHL players are exempt and don't have to be protected.

Capfriendly expansion draft simulator has him and Koivula eligible to be selected.

 

[mouser]

Bellows is exempt from the draft. First and second year NHL players are exempt and don't have to be protected.

I took it as AHL years counting. I did read that part of first and second year NHL players.

First & Second Year Pros

All players who have accrued two or less professional seasons at the end of the 2020-21 season, as well as all unsigned draft choices appearing on the teams reserve list, will be exempt from the upcoming expansion draft.

Expansion Draft FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Bellows is not exempt. His first earned professional season was at age 20 in 2018-19, even though he spent the entire season in the AHL. This 2020-21 season will be his 3rd professional season.

 

[mouser]

Could that 1.27 m in LTIR relief go to performance bonuses?

Nope. LTIR relief cannot be used to settle earned performance bonuses at the end of the season.

 

[CupHolders]

Bellows is not exempt. His first earned professional season was at age 20 in 2018-19, even though he spent the entire season in the AHL. This 2020-21 season will be his 3rd professional season.

True, but pretty sure Ryan Pulock is exempt.

Just realized you might not get that this is an inside joke with Islander fans. We drove beat writer Staple batty with the constant questions/arguments that Pulock SHOULD be exempt for the Vegas draft.

 

[The Real JT]

I just don't see Bellows getting selected as things stand now.

In order for him to be more attractive to Seattle, he would need to show more skill than he has to date

Even more importantly, he needs ice time and barring injuries to other players I don't see that happening.

Same goes for the other Aho.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I just don't see Bellows getting selected as things stand now.

In order for him to be more attractive to Seattle, he would need to show more skill than he has to date

Even more importantly, he needs ice time and barring injuries to other players I don't see that happening.

Same goes for the other Aho.

You may be right, but Isles will lose one player. The rules are Seattle must pick one eligible player from each NHL team with the exception of Vegas, which I find unfair since they are one of the top teams in the NHL. 30 picks.

If I were looking at the Isles eligible players I would definitely be considering Bellows, it's like having a recent first rd pick that can play in the NHL. The other players that will be enticing to Seattle are Leddy or Mayfield, or Komarov, Martin and Clutterbuck.

Depending on how many vets Seattle takes, they may opt for a Bellows type of player. VGK took Tuch and Theodore as former first rd picks, and it worked well for them.

It will be interesting, I hate to say it, we will lose someone that we will have mixed feelings on. Say if it was Mayfield(he has his detractors, but he is signed to a cheap contract) or Leddy(more expensive but is he worth 5.5?) or a Matt Martin who we all love or Clutterbuck. It's going to be bittersweet.

7 fwds

Barzal
Lee
Eberle
Pageau
Nelson
Beauvillier
Bailey

3 D men
Pulock
Pelech
Mayfield

Leddy at 5.5M may be left unprotected.

1 Goalie.
Varly

 

[The Real JT]

You may be right, but Isles will lose one player. The rules are Seattle must pick one eligible player from each NHL team with the exception of Vegas, which I find unfair since they are one of the top teams in the NHL. 30 picks.

If I were looking at the Isles eligible players I would definitely be considering Bellows, it's like having a recent first rd pick that can play in the NHL. The other players that will be enticing to Seattle are Leddy or Mayfield, or Komarov, Martin and Clutterbuck.

Depending on how many vets Seattle takes, they may opt for a Bellows type of player. VGK took Tuch and Theodore as former first rd picks, and it worked well for them.

It will be interesting, I hate to say it, we will lose someone that we will have mixed feelings on. Say if it was Mayfield(he has his detractors, but he is signed to a cheap contract) or Leddy(more expensive but is he worth 5.5?) or a Matt Martin who we all love or Clutterbuck. It's going to be bittersweet.

7 fwds

Barzal
Lee
Eberle
Pageau
Nelson
Beauvillier
Bailey

3 D men
Pulock
Pelech
Mayfield

Leddy at 5.5M may be left unprotected.

1 Goalie.
Varly

I like your list and it may be spot on.

If somehow Bellows gets another chance and produces, he could make the list over Bailey assuming Bailey continues to underwhelm.

Clearly Bailey is far more valuable than Bellows but this team needs to shed salary in the offseason and the other more onerous contracts aren't going anywhere without picks or prospects. Losing Bailey might be the lesser of two evils but only if Bellows surprises us.

I'm not holding my breath.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I like your list and it may be spot on.

If somehow Bellows gets another chance and produces, he could make the list over Bailey assuming Bailey continues to underwhelm.

Clearly Bailey is far more valuable than Bellows but this team needs to shed salary in the offseason and the other more onerous contracts aren't going anywhere without picks or prospects. Losing Bailey might be the lesser of two evils but only if Bellows surprises us.

I'm not holding my breath.

I hope Seattle takes Leddy. At 5.5 I think we can afford to lose him. He has been good this year moving the puck, and he has put up respectable points. But his salary is a problem with Beauvillier and Pelech up. Aho I have always liked since he lost his chance when Toews narrowly beat him out at training camp 3 years ago. He can pick up the slack as PMD while we wait for Bolduc and Salo. Bellows would be tough to lose, but I smell that Trotz may not be one of his players. I don't know anything behind the scenes, but when Trotz sat him out the first time, I wondered why, then he came back, and Trotz singled him out, not vindictively, but he was not happy with him. I don't know what the story is with him? Again, not to condemn him for this, as I am sure hockey players look for an edge, it was reported he was on PED. You have to wonder...

 

[danteipp]

I don't know where you get that the Isles have $2 million cap space from now because they have nothing. Absolutely nothing. They are waiving Komarov every month and putting Dal Colle on IR just so they can bring a player up from the taxi squad from time to time.

I agree with a lot of your post but I really don't think it's worth it to trade away a 2nd to get rid of Hickey. It's what the Rags paid to rid themselves of Staal and Hickey's contract doesn't really do much to push them towards the floor or push the Isles to the ceiling. I'd much rather keep that 2nd and pay that to get rid of a worse contract or make a big deal at the expansion draft. But I'd pay a 2nd to get rid of Komarov though.

Last season they were forced to make Boychuck retire and trade away Toews just to get under the cap. This offseason will be equally bad if Lou can't be creative at the expansion draft. Seattle has got us by the balls and why would they take Leddy or Bailey for free when they can tell us they want a 1st and top prospect to take any of them, or just take a Bridgeport nobody? That's the reality we are facing.

The $2 million in cap space is what the Isles are projected to have free for next season, at least right now, presumably depending on any bonuses that might impact that figure.

I thought I was very deliberate in laying out a plan to add vetetan depth this year (by moving out Hickey now), if the Isles opt to add, and a reasonable plan to be able to sign the three important pieces in Beau, Pelech and Sorokin next season.

Seattle does not have us by the balls. Seattle must choose a minimum of 20 players under contract for the 2021-22 regular season and those with an aggregate Expansion Draft value that is between 60-100 percent of the prior season's upper limit for the salary cap.

Seattle has to select some players with moderate cap hits to abide by the rules and, perhaps most important, because they not only want to be competitive but win to make money. Their owners did not fork over that large expansion fee to build for years. They want to hit the ground running like Vegas and that takes legit players.

They take a player like Leddy because he is a viable top-4 defenseman on an expiring deal that they can either lock up going forward or trade for other assets and futures. Leddy is a solid player, on an expiring contract, and an ideal target for an expansion team.

Lou is not an idiot like Snow, who got bent over by Vegas and McPhee. He knows the value of his players and that Ron Francis is looking to put together a competitive team out of the gate.

Sure, Seattle can bluff or even opt to take a Bridgeport nobody, but they still need to hit the cap floor somehow AND that will need to come with some mid-level contracts from other NHL teams.

But let's say they don't take a top-4 like Leddy from the Isles, then you trade him to a team that lost said player and desperately needs to replace a top-4 defenseman, for a moderate return at best and still shed the salary.

There are lots of ways to shed salary without paying a painful price.

One option is even that if Sorokin shows he can be a franchise goalie from now until the end of the season, the Isles could expose Varlamov. And, much like Fleury being a building block for Vegas, Varly might be the best goalie available to Seattle.

And, if Ladd is indeed headed to LTIR, which we don't know but presumably Lou has an inkling, then it is even easier to sign the Isles players and remain cap compliant, by making smaller moves.