Speculation: Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 - "Ross the Boss" Edition

[buud]

I am certainly ok with searching for an upgrade, and Leddy (because of his salary) is a prime candidate to go, but I don't see the gripe with him. Overpaid? Yes. But IMO, he isn't playing bad, he's not hurting us.

From yahoo, Oct. 12th. This is news to me.

"Advice: Leddy will be paired with Johnny Boychuk on the top defensive pairing in front of Semyon Varlamov. He has been dealing with an undisclosed injury."

I am not in any rush to go changing big pieces, quite yet. We're on a bit of a roll, and it's going to be interesting on what part, if any, that Whally and Dobs are going to play. So far, so good, IMO.

 

[CupHolders]

He changes his model after each year so the lack of consistency with his model makes it pretty much meaningless until he leaves it for an extended period of time before making tweaks.

I do not have a problem with advanced sports analytics. But as you mentioned with Don L, I do have a problem with analysts who rely on their metrics as some kind of "gold-standard."

Years earlier we heard about CORSI followed in some order by Fenwick, HERO Charts, Expected Goals per blah blah...

So following along with what you stated in your post... If a metric is supplanted by another metric, doesn't that mean that the analysts who argued on the original metric’s validity concede that they were wrong?

I guess I would just like to see a bit more humility from the usual math crowd publicists. Make your predictions, but don't try to shove it down my throat as to why I'm wrong about everything I'm watching.

 

[YearlyLottery]

Trading for a middle six forward is not going to move the needle too much for this team and they will be giving up assets that they could use to trade for a real needle mover.

I would be using the assets for Hall or anyone else similar that is available. Of course Hall is a rental so act accordingly. I would rather have Hall for one year than Kyle Turris four years at 50% retained.

 

[CupHolders]

I’ve always been intrigued by Sam Bennett on Calgary. Big time junior player with high pro expectations and wildly inconsistent.

I feel like he would make a great third-line center on a “change-of-scenery” team. No longer having to live-up to top six expectations. If Calgary continues to struggle, maybe they look to shake thins up...

 

[SI]

I wonder about Boyle...if nothing else he is really good in the dot, good on the PK and could be a good front presence on the PP. Just waive Brassard and when he clears he goes down and helps BP

This!

Boyle could provide depth to cover Casey (injury) and Brass (inconsistent play). He can also park himself in front of the net for the 2nd PP.

They have the cap space.

 

[SI]

I’ve always been intrigued by Sam Bennett on Calgary. Big time junior player with high pro expectations and wildly inconsistent.

I feel like he would make a great third-line center on a “change-of-scenery” team. No longer having to live-up to top six expectations. If Calgary continues to struggle, maybe they look to shake thins up...

he is getting inconsistent playing time - I think he logged 8 minutes the other night.

bennett for Dal Colle? Bennett for Ho-Sang? Maybe Isles add something b prospect?

 

[PK Cronin]

Trading for a middle six forward is not going to move the needle too much for this team and they will be giving up assets that they could use to trade for a real needle mover.

I would be using the assets for Hall or anyone else similar that is available. Of course Hall is a rental so act accordingly. I would rather have Hall for one year than Kyle Turris four years at 50% retained.

As far as rentals go these are all the top guys who are on expiring deals (doesn't meant they'll be dealt):

Backstrom
Hall
Granlund
Koivu
Hoffman
Simmonds
Galchenyuk
Hanzal
Kreider
Toffoli
Dadanov

It's pretty bare on that front I think, especially when you factor in NMC and that sort of thing.

I do not have a problem with advanced sports analytics. But as you mentioned with Don L, I do have a problem with analysts who rely on their metrics as some kind of "gold-standard."

Years earlier we heard about CORSI followed in some order by Fenwick, HERO Charts, Expected Goals per blah blah...

So following along with what you stated in your post... If a metric is supplanted by another metric, doesn't that mean that the analysts who argued on the original metric’s validity concede that they were wrong?

I guess I would just like to see a bit more humility from the usual math crowd publicists. Make your predictions, but don't try to shove it down my throat as to why I'm wrong about everything I'm watching.

You're right that they're admitting they were wrong, though they'd probably say it was the most accurate given the data available. If someone could prove that any of those advanced statistics can reliably predict the cup winner each year (or get the finals) for an extended period of time, then I'd put a lot more stock in it. There are just so many variables in hockey and it's really a sport where there isn't just one way to win and it's a lot harder to break down statistically with the same accuracy as something like baseball or basketball.

I think that there is some accuracy in predicting a certain percent of playoff teams in the NHL with some of those statistics, but I don't think it's the end all and there are teams that buck the trend every year. That tells me they're not accounting for something important in the game, and I don't want to hear about luck over the course of an 82 game season. Nobody is getting lucky for that long.

 

[SI]

Martin is done at the end of this year. I don't see him being brought back unless it's a super cheap and short deal as an extra forward. Trotz is going to work on creating a new identity without that line this season.

I think Rosco getting more playing time and rotating with Martin and Clutterbuck is a good idea. I like what I have seen and I loved the encouragement he got from Clutterbuck the other night... about his untapped potential.

the suggestion of Fritz or even Bardreau on this line is not a good idea - although nice role players if these players above are filling out these roles then this team is in trouble.

 

[SI]

As far as rentals go these are all the top guys who are on expiring deals (doesn't meant they'll be dealt):

Backstrom
Hall
Granlund
Koivu
Hoffman
Simmonds
Galchenyuk
Hanzal
Kreider
Toffoli
Dadanov

It's pretty bare on that front I think, especially when you factor in NMC and that sort of thing.

thanks for the list - Inspecting this a bit further -
Backstrom, Grankund, and Galchenyuk are not being moved in a playoff hunt. Kreider - Rags are not going to deal with Isles.
Hanzal is on LTIR and may not play this season.
Koivu is possible - I think Guerin May need to tear that group down. NMC I don’t think will be a concern for players on expiring contracts especially if it is for the last couple months. He would help sort out the 3C.
Simmonds doesn’t fit.


In this order -
Hall
Hoffman
Dadanov
Toffoli

Hall would cost the most - Shero made moves to contend now and to convince Hall to stay. It is still early, but things are trending towards the Devils moving Hall by January.

it is a rental, but I would offer ‘20 #1 and Nick Leddy for Hall.

or

Using the Duchene trade as precedent -

‘20#1, Salo, and Bellows

 

[xIsle]

This needs to happen. Lee holds barzal back to be honest. Lee is terrific in front of the net and battling, he also gives a 110% effort on back checking and I applaud him for that, but his skills are not that of a top line winger. He doesnt have the speed hands or possession skills to help drive the forecheck with barzal. The other night was a prime example of him not being able to complete a 5ft tape to tape pass in the neutral zone to drive a 3 on 2 with Barzal. At some point this year, assuming lou kicks tires all year, I hope we see
Wahlstrom-Barzal-Eberle
Lee-Nelson-Bailey
Beau-Brassard-Leo
Clutter-Cizikas-Johnston/Martin

The offense still doesn't scream top 15, but it will be better than what we are throwing out now.

It's three right-handed on your first line. It would surprise me to see that, but we never know. I think Bailey instead of Eberle would be more likely. But anyway, I would wait a little longer before putting Wahlstrom on the first line.

 

[Lame Lambert]

Looks like Boyle is going to Florida

 

[SI]

Looks like Boyle is going to Florida

Ok - so there goes that option.

looks like Ladd in a regular practice jersey- possibly a week or two away.

maybe gets a conditioning stint at B’port

 

[Frankie41987]

As far as rentals go these are all the top guys who are on expiring deals (doesn't meant they'll be dealt):

Backstrom
Hall
Granlund
Koivu
Hoffman
Simmonds
Galchenyuk
Hanzal
Kreider
Toffoli
Dadanov

It's pretty bare on that front I think, especially when you factor in NMC and that sort of thing.




You're right that they're admitting they were wrong, though they'd probably say it was the most accurate given the data available. If someone could prove that any of those advanced statistics can reliably predict the cup winner each year (or get the finals) for an extended period of time, then I'd put a lot more stock in it. There are just so many variables in hockey and it's really a sport where there isn't just one way to win and it's a lot harder to break down statistically with the same accuracy as something like baseball or basketball.

I think that there is some accuracy in predicting a certain percent of playoff teams in the NHL with some of those statistics, but I don't think it's the end all and there are teams that buck the trend every year. That tells me they're not accounting for something important in the game, and I don't want to hear about luck over the course of an 82 game season. Nobody is getting lucky for that long.

I think it's more what you said about the accuracy of the data, it's not an inherent admission of being wrong it's just our tools are getting better and thus our measurements are more precise over time. Also, it's important to recognize some people use this data descriptively and some use it predictively. There isn't much to argue about descriptively, that data is doing the same exact thing your eyes are doing. Expected goals is really just counting the amount of scoring opportunities (taking into account that some shot types and shot locations have higher success rates) and it says that the team with the better opportunities is probably the team that played better. Saying the team that had the better opportunities is the team that played better in the game isn't some crazy, contentious, nerdy math thing it's what your eyes do every night.

What's more contentious is the predictability of these stats. That is to say using a teams past xGF% and expecting it to be similar in the future. There is a lot of evidence to suggest that this is a valid line of thinking. Here is one study (that none of you will probably be interested enough to look at) that used multiple seasons of data to show that xGF% was a more accurate predictor than Corsi and just simple goal differential: Expected Goals are a better predictor of future scoring than Corsi, Goals

My thoughts are that these stats are way easier to use on the team level than the individual level. It's easy to see the benefit of counting scoring opportunities and drawing conclusions about which team played better. It's not as simple on the individual level (these are those HERO charts) because we are indirectly measuring a players effect. We are essentially saying "the team does this when player x is on the ice, therefore it must be because of player x." When we have enough of that type of data, I do believe it's useful but it's not cut and dry like what we a measuring on the team level.

 

[ichabod13]

Who the hell is Rosco?

 

[SI90]

Well that ends that.

 

[SI]

Who the hell is Rosco?

Who the hell is Rosco?

Ross Johnston

 

[ichabod13]

Ross Johnston

Makes sense I guess........sure as hell beats calling him "Boss". There will only be ONE "Boss" in islanders history....and it most definitely ain't ol' Rossy boy!!

 

[YearlyLottery]

thanks for the list - Inspecting this a bit further -
Backstrom, Grankund, and Galchenyuk are not being moved in a playoff hunt. Kreider - Rags are not going to deal with Isles.
Hanzal is on LTIR and may not play this season.
Koivu is possible - I think Guerin May need to tear that group down. NMC I don’t think will be a concern for players on expiring contracts especially if it is for the last couple months. He would help sort out the 3C.
Simmonds doesn’t fit.


In this order -
Hall
Hoffman
Dadanov
Toffoli

Hall would cost the most - Shero made moves to contend now and to convince Hall to stay. It is still early, but things are trending towards the Devils moving Hall by January.

it is a rental, but I would offer ‘20 #1 and Nick Leddy for Hall.

or

Using the Duchene trade as precedent -

‘20#1, Salo, and Bellows

This draft is supposed to be very good. Unless Hall is coming back signed I hope that Lou could find a way to not give up a first round pick in this draft.

 

[PWJunior]

This draft is supposed to be very good. Unless Hall is coming back signed I hope that Lou could find a way to not give up a first round pick in this draft.

I know it's said year after year, but this is a very strong class. The top end is insane with potential franchise wingers, centers, and RHD's along with a legit Price-like G prospect. I would say it's not as good as the vaunted 2015 class, but it's the best since then so it's a good year to hoard picks.

Until Belmont is ready, the upgrades on this team are coming from within. As the youngsters continue to gain valuable pro experience whether NHL (Dobson, Wahlstrom) or AHL (Holmstrom showing well early and Wilde now healthy), contracts will need to be deleted to the current group as they win roster spots. Leddy, Boychuk, and Hickey could all be gone by next season. Martin and bottom-6'ers will be casualties as well. Sorokin takes over for Greiss.

If we move anyone of significance, I'd prefer 2020 draft picks. Adding another 1st would be very nice, adding another 2nd would be nice too. The 2018 class looks to have produced 2 big time contributors in 2 highly valued positions at RHD and RW sniper. Anything else from Wilde or even Iskhakov is just gravy. Skarek is stashed away as a sleeper.

With some extra currency in a better class than that strong 2018 class, we could get that missing premium C prospect. If we do miss the playoffs, I'd still like that minuscule chance at a top-3 pick. LaFreniere is a stud LW for Barzal, Byfield is my dream guy as a franchise C to pair with Barzal, Raymond is a Marner type, Drysdale is a Makar type, Lundell is a Barkov type, etc. Even with a top-15 pick, we could get our #2C of the future as Brock locks it down for now. Maybe with multiple picks in 1st/2nd/both, a move up can be made me to secure a blue chip top-10. That flexibility is way more attractive to me than wasting it on a rental.

The team made a quantum leap last season, this year is all about letting the dust settle and set things up for next year when Sorokin, Dobson, Wahlstrom at the least take their full time roles with the NHL team. Koivula, Wilde, Holmstrom, Bellows could also be factors. We are simply not players in UFA and the UFA class blows anyway.

 

[MJF]

This draft is supposed to be very good. Unless Hall is coming back signed I hope that Lou could find a way to not give up a first round pick in this draft.

Deep enough that there’s a player around #20 for us?

 

[YearlyLottery]

Deep enough that there’s a player around #20 for us?

Personally? I would not. Again though, if we can get Hall and resign him I would happily give that draft pick up. The team does not have the most assets in the world to trade so if we are going to trade them it should be for a player who is signed long term.

 

[SI]

Personally? I would not. Again though, if we can get Hall and resign him I would happily give that draft pick up. The team does not have the most assets in the world to trade so if we are going to trade them it should be for a player who is signed long term.

I understand the draft is supposed to be a very deep one, although it might need to be a prerequisite to any deal for Hall.

The alternative might be to offer Leddy (who in my eyes is still a top4 Dman) along with a top prospect, like Wilde, plus a prospect, like Bellows with a conditional second-round pick 2021 if Hall resigns long term.

If a #1 is a must, then I think I do it. Leddy and 2020 #1? Not sure many can beat that-

My hope is that with a new arena on the way, with Lou and Trotz heading the organization, and playing shotgun on a line with Barzal and his old pal Eberle that these will all work in the team's favor to sign Hall long term.

 

[MJF]

Personally? I would not. Again though, if we can get Hall and resign him I would happily give that draft pick up. The team does not have the most assets in the world to trade so if we are going to trade them it should be for a player who is signed long term.

Agreed, Hall must be part of a sign and trade.

I was more wondering how deep the 2020 draft really is. I really believe we finish in the top 10 overall this season.

 

[Lame Lambert]

So sick of hearing about the draft. Why don’t we just tank?

 

[YearlyLottery]

Agreed, Hall must be part of a sign and trade.

I was more wondering how deep the 2020 draft really is. I really believe we finish in the top 10 overall this season.

Even if we had something like the 7th pick this season, if Hall is coming back signed I would still make the trade. I am more worried about trading big time assets for an unsigned Hall.