Speculation: Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 - "Ross the Boss" Edition

[YearlyLottery]

So sick of hearing about the draft. Why don’t we just tank?

For me I am not as worried about the draft as I am about wasting prime assets for an unsigned player who I am worried may just bolt.

I would hope if we are making a deal involving the 1st + Wilde + something else we are getting a long term option back.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

This draft is supposed to be very good. Unless Hall is coming back signed I hope that Lou could find a way to not give up a first round pick in this draft.

I know it's said year after year, but this is a very strong class. The top end is insane with potential franchise wingers, centers, and RHD's along with a legit Price-like G prospect. I would say it's not as good as the vaunted 2015 class, but it's the best since then so it's a good year to hoard picks.

Until Belmont is ready, the upgrades on this team are coming from within. As the youngsters continue to gain valuable pro experience whether NHL (Dobson, Wahlstrom) or AHL (Holmstrom showing well early and Wilde now healthy), contracts will need to be deleted to the current group as they win roster spots. Leddy, Boychuk, and Hickey could all be gone by next season. Martin and bottom-6'ers will be casualties as well. Sorokin takes over for Greiss.

If we move anyone of significance, I'd prefer 2020 draft picks. Adding another 1st would be very nice, adding another 2nd would be nice too. The 2018 class looks to have produced 2 big time contributors in 2 highly valued positions at RHD and RW sniper. Anything else from Wilde or even Iskhakov is just gravy. Skarek is stashed away as a sleeper.

With some extra currency in a better class than that strong 2018 class, we could get that missing premium C prospect. If we do miss the playoffs, I'd still like that minuscule chance at a top-3 pick. LaFreniere is a stud LW for Barzal, Byfield is my dream guy as a franchise C to pair with Barzal, Raymond is a Marner type, Drysdale is a Makar type, Lundell is a Barkov type, etc. Even with a top-15 pick, we could get our #2C of the future as Brock locks it down for now. Maybe with multiple picks in 1st/2nd/both, a move up can be made me to secure a blue chip top-10. That flexibility is way more attractive to me than wasting it on a rental.

The team made a quantum leap last season, this year is all about letting the dust settle and set things up for next year when Sorokin, Dobson, Wahlstrom at the least take their full time roles with the NHL team. Koivula, Wilde, Holmstrom, Bellows could also be factors. We are simply not players in UFA and the UFA class blows anyway.

I’ve been thinking about this too, we can’t attract top end talent. Might as well keep our firsts. I could care less about the strength of the draft, partly because I don’t pay attention to drafts but more of a principal thing.

A Hall package would be tempting if it’s truly a missing piece. Last year I loved our team 1-23 but plugging in a Hall where Khunackel was makes us a dangerous team

 

[Lame Lambert]

For me I am not as worried about the draft as I am about wasting prime assets for an unsigned player who I am worried may just bolt.

I would hope if we are making a deal involving the 1st + Wilde + something else we are getting a long term option back.

Agreed. I’d never burn a 1st round pick on a rental unless they were going to re-sign like Stone. I’m talking about this belief that our 1st should be off limits because “the draft is deep”. Who cares?

We have a bunch of guys in their late 20s that just re-signed. It’s time to contend before we end up like Minnesota.

 

[MJF]

Even if we had something like the 7th pick this season, if Hall is coming back signed I would still make the trade. I am more worried about trading big time assets for an unsigned Hall.

I meant we finish in the top 10 in the standings. I think we’re going to have a pick somewhere around 20.

 

[Hunn]

What's more contentious is the predictability of these stats. That is to say using a teams past xGF% and expecting it to be similar in the future. There is a lot of evidence to suggest that this is a valid line of thinking. Here is one study (that none of you will probably be interested enough to look at) that used multiple seasons of data to show that xGF% was a more accurate predictor than Corsi and just simple goal differential: Expected Goals are a better predictor of future scoring than Corsi, Goals

Once I calculated correlations between various regular season metrics and playoff success. Expected goal differential was indeed better than Corsi, slightly worse than PDO, but well worse than simple goal differential. Actually, I haven't found anything better than G+/-.

Definition of success: 1 point for making playoffs, plus 1 point for each round won (so no playoffs = 0, Stanley Cup = 5). Pearson correlation coefficients, based on Corsica data for 5 seasons, 2013/14-2017/18, 151 teams:

CF%	0.309
xG+/-	0.412
PDO	0.442
G+/-	0.587

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[dlawong]

Deep enough that there’s a player around #20 for us?

They said this one is comparable to 2003 not 2015. Google 2003 draft you will be amazed at the number of players who had a solid NHL draft that year.

 

[dlawong]

I meant we finish in the top 10 in the standings. I think we’re going to have a pick somewhere around 20.

Top 10? Which teams are better? In Metro I counted 3, in Atlantic - 5, in Central - 3, Pacific -3, based on both talents and how the teams has played so far. Then there are teams that could potentially improved through the seasons and climb over isles.

Based on elite talents and team overall make ups:
Isles likely will miss playoff in East because the following has better chance to finish higher:
Metro - Caps, Canes, Pens (unless injury to their best players or goalie troubles)
Atlantic - Bruins, TML, Buffalo, Tampa, and Habs
may surprise - Flyers, Florida (latter if their goalies start to play well again)

in the West:
Central - Avs, Nashville, Blues/Jets (one of them)
Pacific - Oilers, Vegas, SJ/Arizona/Flames
May surprise - Canucks

This is more likely the bottom 10:
1. Minny (it appears that this team is tanking intentionally and most likely will head for rebuild)
2. LA (team is just too many old vets to going to be consistently good), they have a strong prospect pool but not enough with experience to make impact right away
3. Ottawa (not enough good vet pieces to lead the team, definitely stay in rebuild stage)
4. Anaheim (too much depends on Gibson, top key players too injury prone)
5 - 10 All teams not listed above - Could be any other bubble teams including Isles with one of Dallas/ Chicago most likely finish at 5
My estimate is Isles will most likely finish at bottom 15 but can fall lower with key injuries because the farm system is not loaded with players who can step up. The older vets on this team may also slow down once the schedule get tougher.

If you are in that bottom 10 group, you got a good chance to land one of the top 3 1st overall picks. This year draft does have a lot of prospects with description of combined good set of skills and competitiveness (pro ready type of traits). The overall No. 1 rated player looks like will be an impact player if stay healthy and makes NHL. Others may step up and challenge him for No. 1, but likely not overtake him though. There is also a super goalie prospect in this draft (something Isles can look for future G insurance should Sorokin not leave KHL).

This has nothing to do with coaching, it is entirely based on the roster both on the current team and farm team. The team will continue to play beyond expectation and the 2 goalies will play well enough to keep the team in most games. It is just not easy to repeat last year because the teams around the league has gotten better and the team defence is unlikely to be as effective as last year due the regress of Leddy and Boychuk.

 

[Sparksrus3]

They said this one is comparable to 2003 not 2015. Google 2003 draft

you will be amazed at the number of players who had a solid NHL draft that year.

I am more amazed how we could have had Zach Parise and Shea Weber in the first 2 rounds but took Dimitri Chernykh and Robert Nilsson instead.

 

[eoin92]

They said this one is comparable to 2003 not 2015. Google 2003 draft you will be amazed at the number of players who had a solid NHL draft that year.

And the islanders managed to strike out with every single pick they had in that draft.

 

[12Dog]

And the islanders managed to strike out with every single pick they had in that draft.

Horrendous
Best player was Bruno

 

[ichabod13]

If Lou trades for hall, how is he going too re-sign hall, barzal, pulock, and toews?
With halls injury history, and the price he will command....... I ain't all that interested in him.

 

[BelovedIsles]

This team is too good for a bottom-10 finish; they are more likely to finish in that 11-15 spot, where there are less slam dunk picks.

Also, contracts could be moved or bought out to create space to re-sign Barz, Toews, and Pulock. Regarding Pulock, if he keeps missing the net the way he has, he’s going to cost himself millions.

I’m wary of Hall’s injury hx., but I still think Lou should be aggressive in adding elite talent; w backup options.

 

[steveat]

If Lou trades for hall, how is he going too re-sign hall, barzal, pulock, and toews?

With halls injury history, and the price he will command....... I ain't all that interested in him.

1. I don't think we will go for Hall, unless Eberle said something to management
2. We would have done the same thing if Panarin signed. We'd be even more screwed
3. Greiss is probably not going to be here next year so that's an extra 3+ mill
4. Toews will not sign for more than 6..TOPs. He's barely had any experience...what we see so far is good, but before we lay out a huge contract, he will have to show consistency.
5. Pulock will probably be in the range of 4 years 6.5 OR 7 years 7.5. Ideally, he, Toews AND Barzal are trying to aim for TWO large contracts and not one, so I think this next one will be no more than 2-5 years for each player tops.
6. Barzal will probably get Marner money

This means there needs to be a trade anyway to open ....maybe 5-10 million in space. You can tell there are plans acom'n. This is why Flip wasn't able to get a term contract and the reason why Brassard only signed for a year. This is the year they make their final choices and open up the floodgates and throw everyone out and bring in the right players.

Our cap right now - $77.5m

Greiss: Gone - 3.3m
Martin: Gone or on a two-way - $2.5m
Kuhnhackl: Probably Gone (but maybe not, because Islanders) - $850k
Josh -Ho-Sang: Traded or packaged in a trade - $875k
Brassard: Gone - $1.2m


contracts to trade away or dumped:

Hickey - We can afford to lose Hickey. We have tons of depth, so trading him in a package might work - $1.5m
Ladd - $5.5m - We're probably going to have to give up a prospect to get rid of him
Leddy - $5.5m

Dumping two of Ladd, Hickey or Leddy will do the trick.

I don't think Boychuck will be traded. he will be the new Seidenburg.

 

[Duanesutter12]

How is Ladd not on LTIR at this point? I'm asking because I'm not really familiar. I mean he hasn't suited up in about a year. When can we actually put him on the list?

 

[Newsworthy]

We really need a couple top five picks to help with the future scoring. This draft has been highly touted in that regard and would be a good place to start.

 

[steveat]

We really need a couple top five picks to help with the future scoring. This draft has been highly touted in that regard and would be a good place to start.

It's not...It was suggested that this draft is "average". I don't think we are going to have a McDavid type draft for a long while.

 

[Newsworthy]

thanks for the list - Inspecting this a bit further -
Backstrom, Grankund, and Galchenyuk are not being moved in a playoff hunt. Kreider - Rags are not going to deal with Isles.
Hanzal is on LTIR and may not play this season.
Koivu is possible - I think Guerin May need to tear that group down. NMC I don’t think will be a concern for players on expiring contracts especially if it is for the last couple months. He would help sort out the 3C.
Simmonds doesn’t fit.


In this order -
Hall
Hoffman
Dadanov
Toffoli

Hall would cost the most - Shero made moves to contend now and to convince Hall to stay. It is still early, but things are trending towards the Devils moving Hall by January.

it is a rental, but I would offer ‘20 #1 and Nick Leddy for Hall.

or

Using the Duchene trade as precedent -

‘20#1, Salo, and Bellows

That's not enough for Hall. Look at the Stone trade. Hall will cost us Dobson or Wally.

 

[leeroggy]

How is Ladd not on LTIR at this point? I'm asking because I'm not really familiar. I mean he hasn't suited up in about a year. When can we actually put him on the list?

Probably because there's no point to it until you need the cap space

 

[doublechili]

This team is too good for a bottom-10 finish; they are more likely to finish in that 11-15 spot

I'm pretty sure we're talking about 5-10 point difference between 10 and 20. We need to just see how this plays out.

 

[MJF]

Top 10? Which teams are better? In Metro I counted 3, in Atlantic - 5, in Central - 3, Pacific -3, based on both talents and how the teams has played so far. Then there are teams that could potentially improved through the seasons and climb over isles.

Based on elite talents and team overall make ups:
Isles likely will miss playoff in East because the following has better chance to finish higher:
Metro - Caps, Canes, Pens (unless injury to their best players or goalie troubles)
Atlantic - Bruins, TML, Buffalo, Tampa, and Habs
may surprise - Flyers, Florida (latter if their goalies start to play well again)

in the West:
Central - Avs, Nashville, Blues/Jets (one of them)
Pacific - Oilers, Vegas, SJ/Arizona/Flames
May surprise - Canucks

This is more likely the bottom 10:
1. Minny (it appears that this team is tanking intentionally and most likely will head for rebuild)
2. LA (team is just too many old vets to going to be consistently good), they have a strong prospect pool but not enough with experience to make impact right away
3. Ottawa (not enough good vet pieces to lead the team, definitely stay in rebuild stage)
4. Anaheim (too much depends on Gibson, top key players too injury prone)
5 - 10 All teams not listed above - Could be any other bubble teams including Isles with one of Dallas/ Chicago most likely finish at 5
My estimate is Isles will most likely finish at bottom 15 but can fall lower with key injuries because the farm system is not loaded with players who can step up. The older vets on this team may also slow down once the schedule get tougher.

If you are in that bottom 10 group, you got a good chance to land one of the top 3 1st overall picks. This year draft does have a lot of prospects with description of combined good set of skills and competitiveness (pro ready type of traits). The overall No. 1 rated player looks like will be an impact player if stay healthy and makes NHL. Others may step up and challenge him for No. 1, but likely not overtake him though. There is also a super goalie prospect in this draft (something Isles can look for future G insurance should Sorokin not leave KHL).

This has nothing to do with coaching, it is entirely based on the roster both on the current team and farm team. The team will continue to play beyond expectation and the 2 goalies will play well enough to keep the team in most games. It is just not easy to repeat last year because the teams around the league has gotten better and the team defence is unlikely to be as effective as last year due the regress of Leddy and Boychuk.

I think you are overrating some teams based on the perception of their rosters. The roster makeup versus what they are actually doing with them. From our conference, a team like the Maple Leafs I can see getting into the playoffs as one of the wild cards or missing the playoffs altogether due to their porous defense and goaltending that is not elite. I also question whether the Sabres, Flyers or Penguins will finish with better records than the Islanders.

From the other conference, while the Blues are the Stanley Cup champs, I still believe that they got a huge boost from firing their coach and Jordan Binnington but I have doubts that they finish with a better record than the Islanders as their talent remains largely unchanged, acquisition of Justin Faulk not withstanding. Same for the Jets and Flames who, like Toronto, have questions about their defense and goaltending.

We'll see what happens when the smoke clears in April. I think there is a lot of parity in the NHL, and that the spread between teams 10 and 20 won't be that great.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

he is getting inconsistent playing time - I think he logged 8 minutes the other night.

bennett for Dal Colle? Bennett for Ho-Sang? Maybe Isles add something b prospect?

This is definitely something I could get behind.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

So sick of hearing about the draft. Why don’t we just tank?

Well, you can win AND keep your top draft picks.

These two things are not mutually exclusive.

 

[Lame Lambert]

Well, you can win AND keep your top draft picks.

These two things are not mutually exclusive.

You’re out to lunch if you think this roster is contending without moving pieces

 

[Kevin27NYI]

If Lou trades for hall, how is he going too re-sign hall, barzal, pulock, and toews?
With halls injury history, and the price he will command....... I ain't all that interested in him.

What about just having him as a rental?

I'm good with that, if the team makes it worth it.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

If Lou trades for hall, how is he going too re-sign hall, barzal, pulock, and toews?
With halls injury history, and the price he will command....... I ain't all that interested in him.

You forget that Lou has Jedi mind tricks when it comes to signing contracts.

Eberle - "The market says I'm worth at least $6mm AAV"

Lou (waves hand) - "The market is wrong, you are truly worth $5.5mm AAV and that's what you will sign for."

Eberle (glossed eyes)- "I am a New York Islander."