Speculation: Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2019-20 Pt. VII: The Lou Awakens

[MattMartin]

Lou's really not building for the future in a traditional sense. As I said before he's pretty much playing it by ear. I now believe he was set on Panarin. This is not being critical just that people talk about the big picture and the reason why Lou has been idle for so long.

But the present is not the future because this team isn't good enough to compete. I do understand the move and I'm not too upset about a late 1st rd pick if that's the case even in a deep draft however it doesn't solve our biggest issues going forward.

We still have the expansion draft to deal with which could cost us badly and really no elite young players on the rise.

Also we can't afford any top free agents other than our own because of cap issues. Not trying to be a Debbie Downer just beings realistic.

What are Lous expectations for our team because if it's to win a Cup in the next few years I think he's delusional because a ton of things have to go right for that to happen with this team. So far we have had no such luck.

I hear you, been almost a year and 1/2 since he took over. I was expecting to lift the cup last year

 

[seafoam]

Anyone heard from Satan today?

He left me a voicemail...

 

[periferal]

I’m not going to say anything for certain because he’s 21 years old and no one can know for sure what will happen. But y9u saying he’s a career AHL’er is seemingly based on nothing but you wanting to be negative since you’ve given no reason as to why.

Koivula is a guy who put up two great seasons as a 17 and 18 year old in the top league in Finland, then he came over and had a great year as an 18 year old in his first year of professional hockey. He also hasn’t looked overly out of place in his games in the NHL. There’s absolutely nothing at this point that points to him being nothing more than an AHL player

Since none of us have a time machine how can we predict the future? We can't. The closest we can do is get impressions on what we see, and I haven't seen anything that makes me think Koivula is going to be an NHL regular. If you disagree that's cool, but when I look at guys at any age I rarely thing that not looking "overly out of place" is ever a confidence booster.

When I watch Koivula play I don't see anything that makes me think he can impact the NHL. Usually at any age and even if they're still in the developmental stage of their careers they show you flashes of real talent and impact ability. And I have not seen that with Koivula.

And to be clear...I want to be wrong on this. I really do. However I'm a realist before anything else.

Also for the record I've loved Beavillier from day one and thought Dal Colle was a bust. I also think Bellows is probably a bust as well, but I am totally loving Dobson.

 

[periferal]

I expect the Wild and Isles to revisit this, this summer. This is one that may still happen.

I hope Parise makes it clear to Guerin that zero chance he waives his NTC to any team but the Isles.

That said...I'm still confused as to why the Wild would want to deal him. Just because he's unhappy doesn't mean the team should care. They are starting a rebuild and won't have any cap issues for the rest of Parise's contract. Plus if they trade ZP and he retires then they get a serious recapture penalty against their cap...While not having him on their roster.

 

[eoin92]

I hope Parise makes it clear to Guerin that zero chance he waives his NTC to any team but the Isles.

That said...I'm still confused as to why the Wild would want to deal him. Just because he's unhappy doesn't mean the team should care. They are starting a rebuild and won't have any cap issues for the rest of Parise's contract. Plus if they trade ZP and he retires then they get a serious recapture penalty against their cap...While not having him on their roster.

They’d probably care because they don’t want to keep a disgruntled employee around. Especially if they’re rebuilding and bringing in a lot of young, impressionable players.

 

[benedictTavares]

I hope Parise makes it clear to Guerin that zero chance he waives his NTC to any team but the Isles.

That said...I'm still confused as to why the Wild would want to deal him. Just because he's unhappy doesn't mean the team should care. They are starting a rebuild and won't have any cap issues for the rest of Parise's contract. Plus if they trade ZP and he retires then they get a serious recapture penalty against their cap...While not having him on their roster.

Forget that threat all he has to do is threaten to retire. That would be far far far far far worse than any other threat he could make.

 

[periferal]

They’d probably care because they don’t want to keep a disgruntled employee around. Especially if they’re rebuilding and bringing in a lot of young, impressionable players.

Meh. Seems like a stretch. Parise may want to go play for more of a contender, but he's a professional and it's not like taking on Andrew Ladd is any sort of improved mentor you want around young players.

If I was GM of the Wild I'd tell Parise, "We understand you only have a few years left and want to play for a contender. We're happy to work with you on that, but you've got to work with us and open up to the notion of playing for more than just the Islanders. We owe it to our entire franchise and fanbase to always put the team first, and to trade you for any type of asset that doesn't improve us in the long run doesn't make sense for us to do. So if you are willing to waive your NTC to go to a handful of contenders then we can try and get a trade return that warrants us trading you to one."

Short of that, if I was Guerin he would be staying. Not going to take on a lesser player, on his own bad contract, that doesn't help the team rebuild, as well as the risk of Parise's recapture penalty all to have less fans in the seats once he's replaced with Ladd and the team loses more.

 

[danteipp]

With respect to next year, the roster and the salary cap, I think a lot of it is going to work itself out based on how players perform from now until the end of the season.

Lou and Trotz are going to see who steps up, who should be retained and who is expendable.

The Isles have plenty of options available.

They can do a mix of long-term or bridge deals on the RFAs, extend a player like Greene then try to trade someone like Leddy, etc.

I also believe that Ladd is here now just so they can run him out there every day and see if he can play or if the wheels finally fall off and he is going to Robidas Island. If he can still play, maybe Lou revisits the Parise deal.

The Isles should also have cheap depth in Bridgeport, with Dobson maybe starting the season there to log big minutes (saving some cap space initially), Bellows, Wahlstrom and Holmstrom (who is heating up now and playing well for his age) all available to contribute.

The year after that, things might get even easier, if Seattle takes a mid level contract off the Isles roster and the cap should go up even more with additional revenue streams.

I honestly didn't think the Isles would trade for JGP and I definitely didn't think they could extend him at an AAV of $5 million. But I like it and it also gives them flexibility going forward, with some depth at their weakest position organizationally.

The rest of this season will be valuable evaluation time. With presumably one final hole to fill at forward, playing alongside Barzal, coming in the off season.

 

[periferal]

Forget that threat all he has to do is threaten to retire. That would be far far far far far worse than any other threat he could make.

Incorrect. Parise (or Suter) retiring over the next few seasons would not be good for the Wild, but you know what would be worse for them...?

If they trade Parise to the Isles and then he retires early.

That's why they have to be very careful if they trade him and it's probably not worth it (especially given he's been injured over the past few season) unless they get something a lot more valuable than Andrew Ladd and his contract back.

If you need clarity then read this:

https://www.hockeywilderness.com/2019/10/31/20937184/minnesota-wild-cap-recapture-penalty-zach-parise-ryan-suter-contracts-roberto-luongo-nhl

 

[danteipp]

Incorrect. Parise (or Suter) retiring over the next few seasons would not be good for the Wild, but you know what would be worse for them...?

If they trade Parise to the Isles and then he retires early.

That's why they have to be very careful if they trade him and it's probably not worth it (especially given he's been injured over the past few season) unless they get something a lot more valuable than Andrew Ladd and his contract back.

If you need clarity then read this:

https://www.hockeywilderness.com/2019/10/31/20937184/minnesota-wild-cap-recapture-penalty-zach-parise-ryan-suter-contracts-roberto-luongo-nhl

Putting aside the idea that Bill Guerin is going to play hardball with a respected and universally-liked player such as Parise, perhaps damaging recruiting efforts for other players, one big savings is in real money.

Once Ladd's bonus is paid out in the Summer, I believe he is owed $9 million total, while Parise is owed $18 million. That is a substantial savings and money that can be used to front load other contracts, if they want to pursue a premium UFA down the line.

 

[dlawong]

I love Barzal and want him signed, but must it be 9+?
It's not like he puts up top 10 numbers. Is 8@8 to little?

No way he can get 9+ unless he start to score like crazy the remainder of this season & do not see anyone do a big offer sheet for him either. I think he will get a longer contract at less $/yr or maybe a bridge contract. He is not even in top NHL 50 coring & does not PK nor excel at Face-off so I doubt he will get that kind of money. A bridge may be more to his advantage so he can elevate his game & get more in the next deal.

 

[dlawong]

I can’t see that happening. That would be a huge mistake imo.

No way they should do that unless there is contract talk problem (as it was like with France Nielsen all over again) & Isles be a seller at next season trading deadline & able to get solid return for his UFA rental value (prospect plus high picks).

 

[CupHolders]

The benefit of the Wild moving Parise is real cash savings, long-term cap flexibility but especially the loss of a NMC for the upcoming expansion draft.

An article from earlier this year highlighting what led to Paul Fenton’s dismissal is strong evidence of the kind of culture the owner values and why they would NOT play hardball with Parise now.

 

[BelovedIsles]

JGP conference with the media

Sounds down to earth and I bet he's excited to play for a team in the running, just like Greene.

 

[BelovedIsles]

I've noticed something that many on here keep saying regarding barzals production, and how it will effect his upcoming contract negotiations. True, Barzal's production has not been in the 90-100 point range like many originally thought it could be the last 2 years (counting this one). However, the primary reason for this has not been due to underperformance on his part. Rather, it has been due to the defensive first system we play. Coach Trotz has been very candid about the fact that playing this system requires the players to make sacrifices, one of which being their individual point production. If Barzal was spending less time marking his man in his own zone, constantly flying out of our own zone early, or rarely back-checking hard and instead cherry picking up the ice, then yeah, he'd probably be a 90-100 point player. But, (and I admit I've been critical of him at times because I still feel he isn't disciplined enough in his own zone and needs to further improve), he has made a concerted effort to play the way Coach Trotz wants him too, and thus, has probably left many individual points on the table. Therefore, that needs to be kept in mind when trying to use his "lack of production" against him into getting him to take less AAV on his next contract. Why? If you keep asking him to make sacrifices in the way he plays for the good of the team, knowing that it will result in him accumulating less points, but then try use his lack of production against him in contract negotiations, that's how you're going to develop a rift with him. In other words, you'll cause Barzal to say to himself "I should play the way they want me to play, only to score less points, only to then have them want to pay me less because I didn't score enough for them? Nah, I ain't doing that, I'm going to make sure I do what I have to do on the ice to score points, system be darned, so that they then have to pay me come contract time". And then, on top of how it will effect him, don't think for a second that the rest of the players wouldn't notice that as well. "Hey, management is using matty's lack of production against him, when its really managements fault for making us play the way we do, they'll probably do that to me to next time around as well, so I need to do what I need to do alsoo to make sure I don't hurt my next negotiation". For a team that requires such a high level of "buy-in" from the players like the Islanders, that is a very risky negotiation strategy to take. So, rather than pay the players based on production, I feel they need to make it known that they will be making decisions based on "impact". So, pertaining to Barzal, it should go something like "Look Matt, we know you would be a 90-100 point guy in a more free flowing style of hockey, but you're buying in to the way we want you to play, and you have a huge positive impact toward our success. So, we're still going to pay you like a player we feel is a very good player, because that's what you are, a very good player". And with that, you would continue to get Barzal to buy-in to the way you want him to play, along with the rest of the players on the team. Now, I am not saying break the bank, or spend recklessly. But, what I am saying, is say he was that 90 point guy, and we would strive to sign him for 8 mil AAV, then let's still give him that money, and not try to lowball him over his numbers, especially considering that traditional statistics aren't what win hockey games for our organization. And deal with the other players accordingly as well. Pulock, has become a very solid defenseman. Most guys in his situation would probably get 5 mil AAV, so strive to pay him that, don't low ball him either and try to get away with 3 mil AAV by using his stats. I am not implying that we shouldn't try to get these guys to take discounts, but be honest with them. As opposed to telling Barzal he is worth 6-7 million based on his stats, tell him "look Matt, we think you are worth 8 mil AAV, but if you could take 6-7 mil, it would help us put those savings back into the rest of the team, and make us better overall". Maybe you would get some guys to bite on that. I just feel overall that we can't try to use traditional "production" as our basis for negotiating contracts with our to be free agents moving forward. It would be contrary to the defense first, sacrificial culture that we are asking the players to buy into. I just felt the need to touch on this a little, given how many on here have alluded to this issue as of late.

Just truncate your points, easier to follow. You know what you're talking about, but this looks like a run-on sentence from a freshman.

 

[BelovedIsles]

Varly has been good, but man, Lehner bleeds O and Royal Blue. :shakes head:

 

[LeapOnOver]

Incorrect. Parise (or Suter) retiring over the next few seasons would not be good for the Wild, but you know what would be worse for them...?

If they trade Parise to the Isles and then he retires early.

That's why they have to be very careful if they trade him and it's probably not worth it (especially given he's been injured over the past few season) unless they get something a lot more valuable than Andrew Ladd and his contract back.

If you need clarity then read this:

https://www.hockeywilderness.com/2019/10/31/20937184/minnesota-wild-cap-recapture-penalty-zach-parise-ryan-suter-contracts-roberto-luongo-nhl

The article I read said Parise has already told the Wild that the recapture is a non-issue because he insists he'll play out his contract no matter what happens. He said he had a friendly conversation with Fenton before he got fired and told him that if a situation arises for him to get a shot at a cup he'd like the opportunity. I'm guessing it's not just the Islanders he would waive for, but that would be more exciting than any other choices. Seems he just wants a chance at a cup with a team competing now and not rebuilding, but will still carry on playing for his hometown team with no ill will. I mean, isn't he leading them in scoring this year? Doesn't sound like the play of a disgruntled player. This last part was meant more for the other people talking about any urgency to move him.

 

[Le Grec]

Lee has a NTC for the first 5 years of his contract (Eberle and Nelson for the first 2 of their contracts. All 3 have modified NTC for the balance of their contracts after the no trade expires). So we can't trade any of the 3 next year unless they wave as they have full NTC.. BTW Boychuk and Leo have modified with a 8 and 7 team no trade , respectively. The no trade clauses and the $$$ are the main reasons why Leddy and Bailey are the most likely options.

Leddy and Bailey are getting a fair pay, so they wouldn't be my first choices to move. Ladd is a must...

 

[Le Grec]

Not sure who you have up or down, but take a look above with my numbers + your addition of Sorokin. It's not bad at all and that's with Greene. I think there's a good chance Greene re-signs if Lamoriello can find a buyer for Hickey or he moves someone else. If Dobson can go to the minors then that's another $1M available.

I'm thinking that deal with Minnesota has a good chance of coming to fruition this summer. It'll be interesting if Lamoriello can find a taker for Ladd. I guess the remainder of his season will be a showcase for him. Hopefully he doesn't get hurt.

The numbers aren't bad at a glance, but if Ladd is the one dealt, there will have to be a sweetener. And that just gets you under the cap. If they want wiggle room, there needs to be another trade...

 

[Le Grec]

No way he can get 9+ unless he start to score like crazy the remainder of this season & do not see anyone do a big offer sheet for him either. I think he will get a longer contract at less $/yr or maybe a bridge contract. He is not even in top NHL 50 coring & does not PK nor excel at Face-off so I doubt he will get that kind of money. A bridge may be more to his advantage so he can elevate his game & get more in the next deal.

I think 9+ is crazy, but I thought 7mil for Lee was nuts also...

 

[CREW99AW]

The benefit of the Wild moving Parise is real cash savings, long-term cap flexibility but especially the loss of a NMC for the upcoming expansion draft.

An article from earlier this year highlighting what led to Paul Fenton’s dismissal is strong evidence of the kind of culture the owner values and why they would NOT play hardball with Parise now.

I doubt the Wild have any interest in protecting Parise in the expansion draft.

 

[steveat]

I doubt we are parting with any D. We lose one Dman and we fall apart. We have insufficient depth at D right now. We don't have anyone we can fully trust to step in (MAYBE Hickey). If anyone goes, it's going to be a forward. or prospects or picks.

We can seem to only play well when everyone is healthy. Next season, when Pelech is healthy and hopefully we can sign greene to a team friendly deal....we are "OK" for depth...but not deep with depth...if anything..Lou won't trade a Dman unless he knows for sure that injuries are not going to affect this team.

I doubt Leddy will be on the move.

 

[Lame Lambert]

Anyone heard from Satan today?

I’m sure he’d be frothing at the mouth over that conditional 3rd rounder

 

[Newsworthy]

So only just now you are coming to the realization that Lou wanted Panarin?

So if Lou would have gotten Panarin, would Lou still be delusional?

Hate to break it to you but a ton of things have to go right for any team to win the cup.
Even the Isles of the 80’s had some miraculous good fortune during their run.
Tampa last year not so much but the Blues.....

Lou has been putting his best foot forward after the Panarin miss (which was not Lou’s fault if you are still catching up on that to)

He has built a competitive team that can play with anyone. Now all cylinders have to click at once which is no guarantee.

My point is this organization has had a ton of misfortune since the Dynasty era.
Lou was brought here in hopes we could win and move forward. No he's not a magician but losing a franchise player, not signing a franchise player and barely having a franchise player really is unfortunate.
It's nice getting Pageau but teams win with luck and talent. He traded away a lot for one significant piece. That is not being critical of Lou it's just unfortunate. We have had little luck in our transactions/draft since the Dynasty era. Hopefully the tide will turn soon.

We can't even get Sorokin signed over here. Watch that become another Nino situation.
It would be nice for once to have players who want to be Islanders and to have some unexpected talent fall in our laps without paying a premium.
I believe Lou is working hard and not asleep.

 

[Lame Lambert]

Every significant move trade wise Lou has seemingly had the opportunity to make is pretty much somewhat of an overpay.

That’s what happens when you're an undesirable team playing in 2 AHL arenas in the hottest division in the league. You’re going to over pay for free agents and trades.

In terms of JPG: he was going to return a first+ from any team as a rental. We paid a 2nd rounder to guarantee he would re-sign with us. It filled our biggest hole in the lineup, improves our PK, and gives Barry way more flexibility in his line deployment. We then locked him up for all of his prime years. This is EXACTLY what we needed.