Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | You're My Boy Bouch!

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belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
38,660
21,871
Canada
Not sure I would categorize McLeod or Janmark as low energy players. They are arguably two of the fastest players we have and are able to create on their own.

I guess energy just means hitting?
Two players that also impact the special teams, too. Both usually play in the 14 minute a night range because of it.

The Oilers leaning to Connor Brown was a hint that they value the workhorse type of player over the 'energy' type of player who generally plays minimal sheltered minutes.

I'll give Kostin credit for his big game in the LA series. But realistically that single game probably put an extra couple million in his bank account.
 
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Oilslick941611

Registered User
Jul 4, 2006
14,465
13,856
Ottawa
I am fully aware of how HDCF is calculated. It is not a perfect stat of course but it is the best proxy we have for where things happen. And overall it is very good at telling you that.

This may not be a busy time for you so I'd invite you to go rewatch all of Foegele's shifts. But it is actually an extremely busy time of the year given my job and this has already been done for us. So if it is ok with you I will pass this time. Instead I will post Natural Stats Tricks summary of Foegele 5 vs 5 vs the Knights and the Kings.

Foegele vs Knights

View attachment 740705

Foegele vs Kings

View attachment 740706

And just to give this some perspective, lets compare him with some of the Knights bottom six guys who are getting so much credit here for going hard to the net and generating all those chances vs the Oilers.

Keegan Kolesar:
View attachment 740709
Brett Howden:

View attachment 740710

Nic Roy:
View attachment 740711

Will Carrier:
View attachment 740714

And just for fun Jack Eichel:
View attachment 740716

vs Connor McDavid:
View attachment 740717

The bottom line is that you like everyone else sees things, or more importantly remembers things that reinforce your existing beliefs. You are convinced that the Oilers are a perimeter team and that Vegas dominated close in. That is in fact not what happened. What Vegas did do was to score on an extremely high percentage of their best chances while the Oilers had the opposite result. You can see this from the heat map on the source page for these illustrations.

we beat Vegas if Skinner played even average hockey. Instead we got one of the poorest goaltending performances in history. I fundamentally and whole heartedly believe this with all my heart.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,699
20,118
Waterloo Ontario
If Karlsson at 3C vs McLeod at 3C is too obvious, should we look at some other 3C's who played Vegas in these playoffs to see how they compare to McLeod using these fancy charts?

Let's look at McLeod, Lundell, Johnston, and Lowry.

View attachment 740751

View attachment 740752

View attachment 740753

View attachment 740754

Right now we're trying to have a discussion as to why a guy who scored 0 goals and had 0 shots on net in the entire Vegas series from anywhere that could potentially score us a goal is quite valuable and worth keeping around. Let's keep that in mind.

Every other team's 3C performed significantly better against Vegas, yet we're supposed to be set here with McLeod 'coming into his own' eventually. What a sick joke.
I'll say this again. These charts only tell a small part of the story. Our original discussion was about perimeter play vs guys who generate chances in close. They are well suited for this task but without context they are not great resources to establish the bolded.

Let me illustrate with Wyatt Johnston. The first thing one needs to acknowledge is that Johnston is a very talented kid with a big upside offensively. The next thing one needs to recognize is that not all "third" lines are built the same way or have the same roles. In the case of Johnston, his linemates were Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov. Not exactly a typical third line and definitely not the Foegele/Ryan wingers that McLeod had. This was really more of Dallas' second scoring line than a typical defense first third line. But even so how did things go?

Vs Vegas 5 vs 5 here are some of Johnston's on ice stats.

TOI 84:58 CF% 46.01 GF 0 GA 5 xGF 2.21 xGA 3.96 xGF% 35.82 SCF% 36.92 HDCF% 31.03 with a 58% offensive zone start percentage.

Contrast this with McLoed's numbers for the series:

TOI 66:10 CF% 61.68 GF 2 GA 3 xGF 2.85 xGA 2.2 xGF% 56.47 SCF% 59.32 HDCF% 65.22 with a 43.75% offensive zone start percentage.

Now these are not individual stats, and are more reflective of lines or units. But they are quite strikingly in contrast with what one might think by only looking at the heat maps. So while the heat maps give Johnston a clear advantage offensively, it is not at all clear that they validate your bolded claim.
 

McDoused

Registered User
Feb 5, 2007
16,298
13,227
Katy <3
The end of october will likely see ....

And definitely watch some games on the player....they have them archived.
Lets bet on this.
IF Lavoie is still up an playing by November 9 I will exit this board until the new year.
If Lavoie is either eating popcorn or been sent down by November 9 you will exit this board until the new year.

???

The problem with this bet is it doesnt really prove either one of us right or wrong. For all we know the Oilers waive Lavoie and he goes elsewhere and scores 20 goals.

My point with Lavoie is that hes trending to be a better player than Kostin at the same age. By all accounts, Kostin is a replacement level forward that you can replace at a cheaper cap hit. Kostin didnt play games for us for us until a couple months in.

I've watched Lavoie plenty. The problem is that where you see warts, I see opportunity to improve and develop. Lavoie is going to be incredibly motivated to make the team, hes going to impress coming out of camp. Add in that the Oilers are risk adverse, I dont see them trying to waive him and lose him for nothing.

I actually think the smart play is to trade him for a similar prospect (former 1st or 2nd round pick) that might not be as far along in their development and can be sent down. Either that or get someone more proven at the C position.
 

Bring Back Bucky

Registered User
May 19, 2004
10,083
3,248
Canadas Ocean Playground
The end of october will likely see ....

And definitely watch some games on the player....they have them archived.
Lets bet on this.
IF Lavoie is still up an playing by November 9 I will exit this board until the new year.
If Lavoie is either eating popcorn or been sent down by November 9 you will exit this board until the new year.

???
Has this place really gotten this preposterous?
1693778237607.gif
 

Anarchism

John Henry
May 23, 2019
4,024
1,130
northern alberta
The problem with this bet is it doesnt really prove either one of us right or wrong. For all we know the Oilers waive Lavoie and he goes elsewhere and scores 20 goals.

My point with Lavoie is that hes trending to be a better player than Kostin at the same age. By all accounts, Kostin is a replacement level forward that you can replace at a cheaper cap hit. Kostin didnt play games for us for us until a couple months in.

I've watched Lavoie plenty. The problem is that where you see warts, I see opportunity to improve and develop. Lavoie is going to be incredibly motivated to make the team, hes going to impress coming out of camp. Add in that the Oilers are risk adverse, I dont see them trying to waive him and lose him for nothing.

I actually think the smart play is to trade him for a similar prospect (former 1st or 2nd round pick) that might not be as far along in their development and can be sent down. Either that or get someone more proven at the C position.
I think we see an extended cup of coffee from Lavoie late in the year. Hopefully the coaching staff in Bakersfield really pushes/teaches him on the downside of the puck. He has likely a 50/50 chance to make the team full time by the end of the year. It sure would be good the Oilers if he did.
Bourgault likely get a look after the New Year too.
 

Soundwave

Registered User
Mar 1, 2007
72,159
27,861
They miss Kassian's physicality and energy, too. They paid a lot to get out of his contract and you heard no complaints about it.

Kassian at his best was better than Kostin likely ever will be.

I don't think so. Kostin has a very good shot release and can get to dirty areas of the ice.

If Woodcroft wasn't a jerk off and played him with Draisaitl or McDavid, I think he'd have scored 20+ like Patrick Maroon. But no, instead we have to give Yamamoto and Puljujarvi 800000000000 minutes next to McDavid and Drai before realizing it doesn't work.

Not even sure what Yamamoto ever did to earn an automatic spot with Draisaitl for eternity while here, he's a late 1st round pick ... so what ... so is Kostin. Only one of them can actually bury the puck in the net and isn't 5'7.
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
38,660
21,871
Canada
I don't think so. Kostin has a very good shot release and can get to dirty areas of the ice.

If Woodcroft wasn't a jerk off and played him with Draisaitl or McDavid, I think he'd have scored 20+ like Patrick Maroon. But no, instead we have to give Yamamoto and Puljujarvi 800000000000 minutes next to McDavid and Drai before realizing it doesn't work.

Not even sure what Yamamoto ever did to earn an automatic spot with Draisaitl for eternity while here, he's a late 1st round pick ... so what ... so is Kostin. Only one of them can actually bury the puck in the net and isn't 5'7.
Woodcroft isn't the only jerk off that Kostin has played for. I'll wager that Detroit has a jerk off there, too and his minutes remain in the sub-10 minute a night range playing mostly checking line opponents. So we may never get to see what might happen if Klim was given the rope.

Why? Because he plays a straight line game, isn't defensively sound and has a knack for taking bad penalties. We'll never get to see Foegele play more than a handful of shifts next to the elites, too.

In regards to Yamamoto, you know exactly what he did to get those minutes next to Draisaitl. He produced. Which is why he got paid.
 
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FlameChampion

Registered User
Jul 13, 2011
13,704
15,419
On some dumb youtube video. Not sure where they heard it.



If no one is going to bite, player A is Kostin and player B is Lavoie.

Lavoie to this point has been the better goal scorer and point producer. I think your average fan is sleeping on him. For a guy with his size and scoring ability, I'm surprised with just how fast he is and how well he skates with the puck. Hes not just a shooter and has chemistry with McLeod already.

You're right on Lavoie. He had a pretty good year in the AHL last year.

I just hope the team has some patience with him.
 

GOilers88

#DustersWinCups
Dec 24, 2016
14,440
21,276
I don't buy that. Lowe was able to find Roloson. Even Chia was able to find Talbot who before his game fell apart (thanks Schwartz) posted strong playoff save percentage here and did so in Calgary too.

No one is saying "carry us to a Cup" either, we need some dimension as a team so we can win some playoff games without it having to be all Leon or Connor. In 2017, Talbot definitely won us games and held us in that San Jose series that McDavid started slow in and had us in the driver's seat in the Ducks series until our inexperience killed us.

To say it can't be done is to say that Holland less capable than Lowe and Chiarelli.

There are guys that are available or could become available. Saros, Hart, Demko, Hellebuyck, Gibson, maybe even an Ullmark are guys that are available now or could become available as the season goes along.

To say that we just have to accept .883 goaltending in the playoffs is ridiculous.
I love how you keep pushing this one save percentage like it means anything this year. You keep beating the "worst playoff save percentage in modern NHL history" drum though.

No one is just accepting it. I think most people think it will improve and aren't using it as some benchmark to evaluate our goalies.

Nevermind the fact that Demko, Hellebuyck and Saros are supremely unrealistic options. Even Carter Hart is statistically a worse goalie than Jack Campbell over his career. But for some reason you think every goalie in the league will somehow be better than the two we have. Like simply swapping a goalie with whoever we can will clearly improve the team.
 

Broberg Speed

Registered User
Oct 23, 2020
6,843
4,659
I think it is pretty obvious that goaltending should be addressed AFTER solidifying a solid defensive group, as a solid defensive group can make any goaltender look good. We've had the discussion about Vegas playing a system that helps their goaltenders out. Let's start there and see what we have in the roster before looking.

Hellebucyk, despite being in my eyes the most talented goaltender in the NHL hasn't won shit with Winnipeg because their D is almost as bad as ours. We wouldn't win with Hellebucyk either. Defence first.
This is the truth. One essential ingredient that all good goaltenders possess in commonality is they perform at their pinnacle when the team's defensive structure causes the shots on goal, in volume, to be familiar in placement and timing. This is an easily explainable phenomenon because defense in hockey is a set of routines. Anyone who becomes exceptional at something does so because of repetitively under like conditions.

The goaltender for a great team, a contender, needs to know what to expect and when to expect it. First a strong defensive system must be installed and practiced until it becomes a routine for the team. Then the saves will become routine for the goaltender. This can only occur when the proper defensive structure is put in place for a goaltender to thrive in. Meaning, the conditions, for the most part, can be repeated every shift.

Notwithstanding the depth of the defense corps, even shots from higher danger areas, are controllable when a full team defense works efficiently. As long as the team performs their defensive routines alike every single shift. The goaltender will have the advantage.

The goaltender will be sharp and ready for the eventual exceptional scoring chances because the bulk of scoring opportunities, which are not outstanding, become routine saves. Until the rare occurrences of grade A scoring opportunities arise, the majority of saves are conventional. Throughout a game the vast majority of the saves will be routine and when the goaltender faces a difficult shot the goaltender will have a greater chance of making that save because the goaltender will be in a grove.

That's what high level coaching is all about. That's where Woodcroft failed the Oilers goaltending against the Vegas Golden Knights, and to an extent, the LA kings. Skinner looked dreadful at times but most goalies would with the absolute lack of structure the Edmonton Oilers demonstrated.

The video evidence is out there to consume and critique. Every Oiler fan has the opportunity to delve into the Oilers defensive breakdowns and scrutinize over what went wrong.

This is where Nurse should be criticized. From one end Nurse makes the defensive mistakes, and from the other end Nurse has not been properly coached. Nurse fails at the defensive fundamentals. He needs to perfect the defensive fundamentals, then make them routine.

If Woodcroft and his coaching staff cannot instill the fundamentals into the Oilers 9.25M defenseman than another coaching staff needs to replace Woodcroft and company to transfuse those defensive fundamentals into Nurse's game.

I cannot see what difficulties there would be for Nurse correcting his fundamentals beyond his own personal stubbornness and the weakness of the coaching staff to make Nurse adhere to the proper fundamentals.

A good defensive team not only takes a physical toll on the opposition, they come to psychologically own them. When a team puts on a defensive clinic the game becomes clockwork for the goaltender. The saves the goaltender faces in practice metamorphose into the saves the goaltender faces during series deciding games.
 

Canovin

1% is the new 11.5%
Oct 27, 2010
17,536
8,326
780
It could get to $100M in 4 years quite easily. The current revenues are already reported to be about $6B. At that level the midpoint of the cap would be in the $90-93M range which would put the cap at just under $100M. The major question is how quickly the League normalizes the cap calculation.
I’ll believe it when it happens. I was told the same thing about McDavid deal
 

duul

Registered User
Jun 21, 2010
10,462
5,083
This is the truth. One essential ingredient that all good goaltenders possess in commonality is they perform at their pinnacle when the team's defensive structure causes the shots on goal, in volume, to be familiar in placement and timing. This is an easily explainable phenomenon because defense in hockey is a set of routines. Anyone who becomes exceptional at something does so because of repetitively under like conditions.

The goaltender for a great team, a contender, needs to know what to expect and when to expect it. First a strong defensive system must be installed and practiced until it becomes a routine for the team. Then the saves will become routine for the goaltender. This can only occur when the proper defensive structure is put in place for a goaltender to thrive in. Meaning, the conditions, for the most part, can be repeated every shift.

Notwithstanding the depth of the defense corps, even shots from higher danger areas, are controllable when a full team defense works efficiently. As long as the team performs their defensive routines alike every single shift. The goaltender will have the advantage.

The goaltender will be sharp and ready for the eventual exceptional scoring chances because the bulk of scoring opportunities, which are not outstanding, become routine saves. Until the rare occurrences of grade A scoring opportunities arise, the majority of saves are conventional. Throughout a game the vast majority of the saves will be routine and when the goaltender faces a difficult shot the goaltender will have a greater chance of making that save because the goaltender will be in a grove.

That's what high level coaching is all about. That's where Woodcroft failed the Oilers goaltending against the Vegas Golden Knights, and to an extent, the LA kings. Skinner looked dreadful at times but most goalies would with the absolute lack of structure the Edmonton Oilers demonstrated.

The video evidence is out there to consume and critique. Every Oiler fan has the opportunity to delve into the Oilers defensive breakdowns and scrutinize over what went wrong.

This is where Nurse should be criticized. From one end Nurse makes the defensive mistakes, and from the other end Nurse has not been properly coached. Nurse fails at the defensive fundamentals. He needs to perfect the defensive fundamentals, then make them routine.

If Woodcroft and his coaching staff cannot instill the fundamentals into the Oilers 9.25M defenseman than another coaching staff needs to replace Woodcroft and company to transfuse those defensive fundamentals into Nurse's game.

I cannot see what difficulties there would be for Nurse correcting his fundamentals beyond his own personal stubbornness and the weakness of the coaching staff to make Nurse adhere to the proper fundamentals.

A good defensive team not only takes a physical toll on the opposition, they come to psychologically own them. When a team puts on a defensive clinic the game becomes clockwork for the goaltender. The saves the goaltender faces in practice metamorphose into the saves the goaltender faces during series deciding games.
Dude, why are you such a downer? They're going to figure it out just give them one more year. McLeod and Nurse are going to come into their own here any second...
 

nexttothemoon

and again...
Jan 30, 2010
29,641
16,958
Northern AB
I'm pretty sure (although this is just going by memory) that nothing "official" can happen with players on the team until September 15th... as I think that's essentially when the new NHL season starts.

So no players are officially in camp to take physicals etc until Sept 15th... and then the training camps start after that.
 

Took a pill in Sbisa

2showToffoliIwascool
Apr 23, 2004
16,329
7,088
Australia
I don't buy that. Lowe was able to find Roloson. Even Chia was able to find Talbot who before his game fell apart (thanks Schwartz) posted strong playoff save percentage here and did so in Calgary too.

No one is saying "carry us to a Cup" either, we need some dimension as a team so we can win some playoff games without it having to be all Leon or Connor. In 2017, Talbot definitely won us games and held us in that San Jose series that McDavid started slow in and had us in the driver's seat in the Ducks series until our inexperience killed us.

To say it can't be done is to say that Holland less capable than Lowe and Chiarelli.

There are guys that are available or could become available. Saros, Hart, Demko, Hellebuyck, Gibson, maybe even an Ullmark are guys that are available now or could become available as the season goes along.

To say that we just have to accept .883 goaltending in the playoffs is ridiculous.

Completely glossing over the fact that Hellebuyck's SV% vs Vegas was worse than Skinner's, that Gibson has put up some of the worst numbers of the past 5 years, Hart is the opposite of a sure thing, and Saros & Demko completely unavailable.

Roloson's first playoffs was an 0.851.Talbot 0.846. What a wild concept that they improved after their first experience.
 
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Tarus

Registered User
Jun 22, 2006
9,433
4,540
Edmonton
Completely glossing over the fact that Hellebuyck's SV% vs Vegas was worse than Skinner's, that Gibson has put up some of the worst numbers of the past 5 years, Hart is the opposite of a sure thing, and Saros & Demko completely unavailable.

Roloson's first playoffs was an 0.851. What a wild concept that he improved after his first experience.
Supposedly Saros is available, Nashville is just asking for a huge return for him(justifiably).
 
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