Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Lavoie, Pederson, & Gleason clear waivers

[CycloneSweep]

I love people here are now ripping on Kostin. When the regular season starts and the Oilers cannot forecheck shxxx with thier 3rd of 4th lines and keep possession, then let's see what happens. Kostin brought a unique skillset to the Oilers.

People be expecting fairies like Pederson, Gagner, Sutter, etc to forecheck and keep possession. Good luck.

Kostin literally had the worst possession numbers on the team though so how much was he actually helping with that? Kostin overachieved offensively while not being good at much else other than fighting and hitting. He had bad possession numbers and was arguably the worst forward on the team in most regards. That said I liked him still and wanted him here.

That said he isn’t worth close to a 2nd round pick and isn’t worth close to $2mill either. He was a decent 4th liner. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[GOilers88]

Kostin has to be attacked because he didn't follow the company line and take a 800k less than what he was able to get (as if any reasonable person in his situation would do that).

If the Oilers hadn't blown so much money on Nurse and Campbell and Foegele also is about 600-700k overpaid himself ... if we didn't have those cap issues from those bad contracts and could pay Kostin 2 million, no one on this board would be saying shit.

They'd be happy to have him back. You wouldn't hear one peep about it, but because Holland has made several poor cap gambles, Kostin is the one that gets blamed for simply wanting to get paid in line with players he scored at the same rate as (like McLeod).

If we had the extra 1 million in cap space lying around he'd be signed and on the roster and people here would be ready to cheer him on.

You don't have to kiss the management's ass all the time and run damage control for them on everything. It's so blatantly transparent.

We do have too many players that blow glorious scoring chances because their shot release is sub par. We do have a lack of grit and size in our bottom 6. We do have "support players" that have a tendency to go invisible in more intense games. Kostin was a nice change of pace in all of those areas.

Nobody is attacking Kostin. Most of us simply acknowledge that while he was decent here, he probably isn’t worth double what he was making. Maybe he shows he is this year, but the jury is still out there.

 

[McFlash97]

Kostin literally had the worst possession numbers on the team though so how much was he actually helping with that? Kostin overachieved offensively while not being good at much else other than fighting and hitting. He had bad possession numbers and was arguably the worst forward on the team in most regards. That said I liked him still and wanted him here.

That said he isn’t worth close to a 2nd round pick and isn’t worth close to $2mill either. He was a decent 4th liner. Nothing more, nothing less.

Can you please provide valid proof of your claims. Please do.

If your expecting guys like Suter, Gagner, Pedersen to get in, recover pucks, protect pucks and play a physical game ...good luck. Yes Kostin is overpaid, but he is part of a rotating 4th line that played with intestinal fortitude.

Suter is made of glass. Gagner is made of feathers, and Pedersen is such a meh player.

 

[K1984]

I love laughing at what a mess Anaheim is. A week into camp, they’ve got plenty of cap space and two of their most important players not signed.

You love to see it.

It’s almost as funny as Ottawa’s situation. Seems like the last year or so people have been praising what a great job Dorian has done with Ottawa. But they’re capped out to the point they can’t even sign a young 20 goal guy and the monster deal they just signed Sanderson to hasn’t even kicked in yet. And they are a team that hasn’t even sniffed the playoffs. What a great job.

I think Zegras is highly, highly overrated, but the way they are handling him makes zero sense. Although who knows, his agent could be playing hardball and putting the Ducks in a position they don't want to be in when his next deal expires.

 

[Soundwave]

Nobody is attacking Kostin. Most of us simply acknowledge that while he was decent here, he probably isn’t worth double what he was making. Maybe he shows he is this year, but the jury is still out there.

He scored at the same rate as McLeod and Foegele in the regular season and outperformed them in the playoffs ... but they are "good players" ... because what? Because they're Oilers. If the Oilers had better cap management and signed Kostin then magically I would bet on this board Kostin is suddenly a "good player" too.

 

[bucks_oil]

I disagree with your premise. The market value of an asset is determined by the market, you look at comps in the market, you determine what that asset is worth. It's this way for Homes, Cars, and hockey players. For hockey players, you'd look for similar types of players and see what they are traded at to come to a estimation of market value as best as you can. From there a GM can either obtain that market value or get less or get more. That depends on negotiations. And this ability or lackthereof should be what GMs are evaluated on. So while a GM may TRY to use our situation as leverage in a deal, there is nothing forcing Holland to take that deal, there's no gun to his head no matter how dour our situation looks, he has options, more options that you may be giving him credit for.

For example, he wouldn't have NEEDED to find ONE team that could take on Kostin's cap AND Yamo's buy out in one transaction. That's just how Holland did the deal (seemingly out of convenience). He very well could have traded them separately. One deal for Yamo's buyout. One deal for Kostin's services. Your telling me that would have been hard to find? A team that wouldn't mind a draft pick for 500k cap space? There's plenty of rebuilding teams in this League with cap space and we've seen dozens of these types of deals in the flat cap era. And a team that wouldn't want a good player in their bottom 6 at 2M? There are many teams who wouldn't mind Kostin's size, skill, and willingness to fight in their bottom 6. Edmonton is one of them if we had the cap space. These two small deals shouldn't be some impossible hill for a GM to climb, if it is, that GM has issues.

I don't really agree that we were lucky to get Bouch and McCleod at their prices either. Lots may have been saying we'd be lucky to get Bouch at under 5M or 6M even before he signed, but i never really agreed with that. All it took was comps like Byram, Miller, Hronek to determine that Bouch's market value should be around 4M. And that's where we signed him. And McCleod signed around his market value too. We didn't luck out on these contracts, we got them at market value and used comps to determine that value.

The issue of whether Holland got market value for Yamo/Kostin is different from the issue of whether we should have kept Kostin. In my posts today, I've only griped about the value of that trade. My point is that Holland could have and should have gotten more Kostin. While I do think we should have kept Kostin, it's not really the point im trying to make with my posts today but if we are going to go down that road, as an example we could have simply traded Mcleod to fit Kostin in. Could also have traded Foegele as a cap dump for buy out purposes, that would have cost us probably a 3rd round pick. That's not too costly. I'd consider it.

First paragraph: there are a lot more buyers for houses and cars than there are for hockey players. As you say, it all comes down to negotiation and your counter-party's situation can easily be used to drive down the price... if it couldn't you would't see distressed sales of homes (and that's in a WAY more efficient/fluid market). My point is that it was painfully obvious what cap constraints Holland had and what his priorities would be.

Paragraph 2: that's fair, it didn't have to be a single buyer... but of course that depends on what others were willing to accept for Yamamoto. You argue it shouldn't be more than a 2nd... but what if it was a 3rd? Is Kostin worth more than a 3rd? (hint, that's exactly what Edmonton would have gotten if he signed an offer sheet, so a fair bet that probably bounded any negotiation).

Paragraph 3: As you say Bouchard and McLeod were somewhat on the lower end of predictable... a smart GM would have bet on the two being $6M to $6.5M. After that the GM would KNOW with certainty that Kostin's on the block, price is going down. Kostin was traded within hours of free agency... you don't think that Holland did so at that time because the alternative was a 3rd round pick via RFA comp? Surely that factored in.

Paragraph 4: I agree with you here, I'd rather that we traded Foegele, kept Kostin and saved $650K... but keep in mind that we'd still have had to pay a third to trade Foegele and another 2nd/3rd to trade Yamamoto. At some point those picks add up and they might be better saved for the trade deadline. So the equation becomes:

Option A: trade Kostin and Yamo, save my picks and just enough to sign Bouchard & McLeod, vs
Option B: trade Yamo and Foegele + 3rd, +2nd/3rd and save just enough to sign Bouchard, McLeod and Kostin + $650K in available space.

I prefer option B too, but not because of Kostin... only because I value the cap space for the deadline... but it's expensive and it doesn't make the "return" we got in trading Kostin poor value.

 

[TheNumber4]

you do realize we are over the cap right now? we could not afford another 500k on top of it. Yams was on 3 mill a year and was clearly over paid and this was a Holland deal---that is what causes me concerns.

Yes. Doesn’t mean we couldn’t have have traded both in seperate deals to get a better return. Which is mostly my point.

 

[TheNumber4]

He had value at near league minimum salary, not 3.1m. It's pretty simple really.

Obviously I'm a Kostin fan but he wasn't getting 2m here so since they were losing him anyway and had a guy in Holloway to fill that role, it was probably worth it to attach him (instead of a higher pick) to dump Yamamoto. Not a good trade but a necessary one.

True. But still shows he has some value. I never said Yams was worth his 3.1M. I’m saying Yams buyout of 500Kx2 could have been had for a lot cheaper.

Not a good trade also true. Necessary to clear the cap, yes. Not necessary to package them up in one sub-optimal trade. Could have shipped them separately and been ahead value wise.

He scored at the same rate as McLeod and Foegele in the regular season and outperformed them in the playoffs ... but they are "good players" ... because what? Because they're Oilers. If the Oilers had better cap management and signed Kostin then magically I would bet on this board Kostin is suddenly a "good player" too.

If we could have afforded 2M to keep Kostin, who’s worth that. The narrative about Kostin would be entirely different around here.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Can you please provide valid proof of your claims. Please do.

If your expecting guys like Suter, Gagner, Pedersen to get in, recover pucks, protect pucks and play a physical game ...good luck. Yes Kostin is overpaid, but he is part of a rotating 4th line that played with intestinal fortitude.

Suter is made of glass. Gagner is made of feathers, and Pedersen is such a meh player.

XGF%

Corsi%

Janmark had slightly worse Corsi but played a bunch more minutes a game.
If Kostin was willing to be here for Janmark, Pederson or whatever money he would still be here.

Kostin had sheltered 4th line minutes, didn’t really see any legit defensive time, and can’t PK. And with that still had bottom possesion numbers on the team.

But he didn’t. He wanted double what he was worth or he was going back to Russia. Moving him was the right choice. We should probably have found a better guy to replace him for sure. But having to move out like McLeod or Foegele to keep a 4th liner would have been incredibly stupid.

True. But still shows he has some value. I never said Yams was worth his 3.1M. I’m saying Yams buyout of 500Kx2 could have been had for a lot cheaper.

Not a good trade also true. Necessary to clear the cap, yes. Not necessary to package them up in one sub-optimal trade. Could have shipped them separately and been ahead value wise.



If we could have afforded 2M to keep Kostin, who’s worth that. The narrative about Kostin would be entirely different around here.

Kostin is a middle of the road 4th liner which is worth around 1 mill.
An average 4th liner is worth a 3rd or 4th round pick. A 3rd/4th round pick to move on from Yamamotos contract is Pennie’s.

 

[TheNumber4]

View attachment 746663
XGF%
View attachment 746664
Corsi%

Janmark had slightly worse Corsi but played a bunch more minutes a game.
If Kostin was willing to be here for Janmark, Pederson or whatever money he would still be here.

Kostin had sheltered 4th line minutes, didn’t really see any legit defensive time, and can’t PK. And with that still had bottom possesion numbers on the team.

But he didn’t. He wanted double what he was worth or he was going back to Russia. Moving him was the right choice. We should probably have found a better guy to replace him for sure. But having to move out like McLeod or Foegele to keep a 4th liner would have been incredibly stupid.


Kostin is a middle of the road 4th liner which is worth around 1 mill.
An average 4th liner is worth a 3rd or 4th round pick. A 3rd/4th round pick to move on from Yamamotos contract is Pennie’s.

1M? Nah. 1.5M would have been fine for his production. 2M fine if you beleive in his youth and potential to grow.

 

[CycloneSweep]

1M? Nah. 1.5M would have been fine for his production. 2M fine if you beleive in his youth and potential to grow.

If you like bad contracts absolutely. If we would have kept him like that it would have ballooned McLeods contract.

At the end of the day yall are crying over a middle of the pack 4th liner who barely played 10min a game.

 

[TheNumber4]

If you like bad contracts absolutely. If we would have kept him like that it would have ballooned McLeods contract.

At the end of the day yall are crying over a middle of the pack 4th liner who barely played 10min a game.

Nah I disagree. Not a great contract at 2M but a fair one. Maybe Yzermans an idiot though and there’s nothing there that justifies the bet at 2.5M.

At the end of the day, I think we lost value in the Yamo/Klim trade. At the end of the day, y’all crying cause I think so.

 

[GOilers88]

He scored at the same rate as McLeod and Foegele in the regular season and outperformed them in the playoffs ... but they are "good players" ... because what? Because they're Oilers. If the Oilers had better cap management and signed Kostin then magically I would bet on this board Kostin is suddenly a "good player" too.

Kostin is a winger who doesn’t PK. There’s a reason McLeod is more valuable to the team, I don’t know why you ignore that.

Never thought I’d see the day people absolutely melted down because the team didn’t pony up for a bottom six player who had a hot stretch of games and wanted to more than double his salary. You seriously need to get over it.

Remember when Yamo was the catalyst for the “best line in hockey”? Pepperidge farm remembers.

 

[Bank Shot]

I think his PDO can be explained by his legit good shot and a bit of opportunism in his game. And yeh probably some luck. But not fully explained by luck.

Foegele had 9 points in 15 games in his first playoffs.

William Karlsson in the 2 playoffs before last season scored 8 goals in 40 games. Last year he goes off for 11 in 22.

There is a lot of variance in the playoffs. Just because Kostin scored 5 points in 12 games doesn't mean he's a lock to do it again. The math says he way overachieved. The math is usually right about this type of thing. I think it will be right about Kostin. He's never shown a history of scoring well at the NHL or AHL level before last season.

We will see soon enough.

 

[TheNumber4]

First paragraph: there are a lot more buyers for houses and cars than there are for hockey players. As you say, it all comes down to negotiation and your counter-party's situation can easily be used to drive down the price... if it couldn't you would't see distressed sales of homes (and that's in a WAY more efficient/fluid market). My point is that it was painfully obvious what cap constraints Holland had and what his priorities would be.

Paragraph 2: that's fair, it didn't have to be a single buyer... but of course that depends on what others were willing to accept for Yamamoto. You argue it shouldn't be more than a 2nd... but what if it was a 3rd? Is Kostin worth more than a 3rd? (hint, that's exactly what Edmonton would have gotten if he signed an offer sheet, so a fair bet that probably bounded any negotiation).

Paragraph 3: As you say Bouchard and McLeod were somewhat on the lower end of predictable... a smart GM would have bet on the two being $6M to $6.5M. After that the GM would KNOW with certainty that Kostin's on the block, price is going down. Kostin was traded within hours of free agency... you don't think that Holland did so at that time because the alternative was a 3rd round pick via RFA comp? Surely that factored in.

Paragraph 4: I agree with you here, I'd rather that we traded Foegele, kept Kostin and saved $650K... but keep in mind that we'd still have had to pay a third to trade Foegele and another 2nd/3rd to trade Yamamoto. At some point those picks add up and they might be better saved for the trade deadline. So the equation becomes:

Option A: trade Kostin and Yamo, save my picks and just enough to sign Bouchard & McLeod, vs
Option B: trade Yamo and Foegele + 3rd, +2nd/3rd and save just enough to sign Bouchard, McLeod and Kostin + $650K in available space.

I prefer option B too, but not because of Kostin... only because I value the cap space for the deadline... but it's expensive and it doesn't make the "return" we got in trading Kostin poor value.

P1: I agree that GMs can use that leverage, and did have legitimate leverage to attempt to negotiate Holland down. We disagree on how much Holland should have been affected by that. I think Holland could have found options not to get walled in by one GM.

P2: Yeh it could have been two transactions pretty easily I think. You make a good point about the bounding factor of the offer sheet. So let’s peg his value as a 3rd. Even then Yamos buyout could likely have been had for a 4th. So still slightly ahead on value if traded serperately. Not really a big deal I’ll admit but it’s there.

P3: the Bouch/Cloud extensions should have been known, or very close to. And yeh a GM can try to use that against Holland. I don’t think Kostin was properly shopped as a singular asset though. Holland was focused on the Yamo cap removal, found a convenient and decent deal to get all done in one shot. I think he left some value on the table.

P4: considering the most recent cap dump buyout trade of Bailey. I’d peg the values on that scenario probably closer to a 3rd to dump Foegele and a 4th to dump Yams. But it could be 2nd/3rd. It’s expensive when considering having to dump two players of course. Personally I’m not too excited about later round picks but you are right, they could be used as assets at the TDL. I would still strongly consider the move, but it wouldn’t be a slam dunk for me. But even if we don’t do that move, I still think we should have shopped the Yamo Kostin separately, if we did decide to move on from Kostin.

 

[GOilers88]

Foegele had 9 points in 15 games in his first playoffs.

William Karlsson in the 2 playoffs before last season scored 8 goals in 40 games. Last year he goes off for 11 in 22.

There is a lot of variance in the playoffs. Just because Kostin scored 5 points in 12 games doesn't mean he's a lock to do it again. The math says he way overachieved. The math is usually right about this type of thing. I think it will be right about Kostin. He's never shown a history of scoring well at the NHL or AHL level before last season.

We will see soon enough.

It’s hilarious too, because for the same reason Skinner “doesn’t have it”, that being his small playoff sample, Kostin “does have it” based on his small playoff sample.

The inconsistency is glaring.

 

[Cloned]

Never seen so much debate about a guy who probably won’t even score 10 goals this season.

 

[TheNumber4]

Foegele had 9 points in 15 games in his first playoffs.

William Karlsson in the 2 playoffs before last season scored 8 goals in 40 games. Last year he goes off for 11 in 22.

There is a lot of variance in the playoffs. Just because Kostin scored 5 points in 12 games doesn't mean he's a lock to do it again. The math says he way overachieved. The math is usually right about this type of thing. I think it will be right about Kostin. He's never shown a history of scoring well at the NHL or AHL level before last season.

We will see soon enough.

There’s no guarantees. That’s why I said I think his pdo can be explained by rather than making a concrete assertion. But I agree, there’s no guarantees, Your making a bet with Kostin just like we made a bet on Foegele that hasn’t really panned out. Kostin could be a flash in the pan, or he could be trending up to where scouts at the draft thought he’d become. I think he’s established himself as a physical 3rd liner that can hit and score probably worth about 1.5M on that alone. If you believe in his upside, he’s worth 2M or to Yzerman 2.5M. But Only way to know is to wait.

Never seen so much debate about a guy who probably won’t even score 10 goals this season.

Pool?

 

[TheNumber4]

Kostin is a winger who doesn’t PK. There’s a reason McLeod is more valuable to the team, I don’t know why you ignore that.

Never thought I’d see the day people absolutely melted down because the team didn’t pony up for a bottom six player who had a hot stretch of games and wanted to more than double his salary. You seriously need to get over it.

Remember when Yamo was the catalyst for the “best line in hockey”? Pepperidge farm remembers.

The reactions to people who liked Kostin are melty down as well.

 

[Green Xero]

It seems that I must have most of the Klim Kostin Krew on ignore as I just see a bunch of people arguing with nobody. Lol.
I was wondering if it feels strange to see the name "Sutter" in Oil silks for anybody else? I know the fam is from Alberta but the Sutter's have always had a "the enemy" feel to them lol ..

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Nah I disagree. Not a great contract at 2M but a fair one. Maybe Yzermans an idiot though and there’s nothing there that justifies the bet at 2.5M.

At the end of the day, I think we lost value in the Yamo/Klim trade. At the end of the day, y’all crying cause I think so.

The only one crying is you.

 

[TheNumber4]

The only one crying is you.

How so? I pretty calmly stated I think we lost value of in the Yams/Kostin trade and stated my reasons why. I like Kostin as a player and stated my reasons why. I would have preferred to keep Kostin but realize it would have been costly. Not even really that controversial of takes if you look at it, and I take no offense to anyone that disagrees with me. But apparently much offence is taken if I dare to question the perfection of Hollands management.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

How so? I pretty calmly stated I think we lost value of in the Yams/Kostin trade and stated my reasons why. I like Kostin as a player and stated my reasons why. I would have preferred to keep Kostin but realize it would have been costly. Not even really that controversial of takes if you look at it, and I take no offense to anyone that disagrees with me. But apparently much offence is taken if I dare to question the perfection of Hollands management.

It’s not that you are questioning Hollands management it’s what you are questioning him about. It’s ridiculous.

 

[TheNumber4]

It’s not that you are questioning Hollands management it’s what you are questioning him about. It’s ridiculous.

Yes I think he lost slight value in that trade. Agree or disagree. No need to cry about it.

 

[CupofOil]

True. But still shows he has some value. I never said Yams was worth his 3.1M. I’m saying Yams buyout of 500Kx2 could have been had for a lot cheaper.

Not a good trade also true. Necessary to clear the cap, yes. Not necessary to package them up in one sub-optimal trade. Could have shipped them separately and been ahead value wise.

Yes, Yamamoto had some value on the open market as a free agent that teams can sign for cheap because he is a useful NHLer but this conversation was in context of his value on the trade market at his previous salary of $3.1m of which he was a salary dump with negative value. Kostin, who was going to be lost for nothing, was the price to pay as opposed to a 2nd or 3rd that could be something useful down the road.

If I was Holland, I would have traded Foegele and signed Kostin for the $2m assuming that he wanted to be here because of youth, unique skillset and at least some growth potential but it was not meant to be. I think Holloway will adequately fill the Kostin role regardless with more upside as a 2 way player.