Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Lavoie, Pederson, & Gleason clear waivers

[GOilers88]

If the value wasn't good, that means quite simply that Holland didn't extract maximum value. Maybe he did that out of convenience, 2 birds with 1 stone, and he only needs to talk to his buddy Yzerman to get the deal done. But convenience is not a good enough reason to lose a trade. We should expect more from one one of the highest paid GMs in the League or just any GM. Their job is to extract maximum value from their assets.

Yamo at 3.1M isn't worth it, you are right, but that's not what were evaluating though. We are evaluating what Yamo's Buyout at 500k is worth. Atmost a 3rd, probably closer to a 4th round pick.

The Oilers decided they weren't going to pay Kostin what he was worth. I don't agree with letting him go, but if that's what they decided then they should still atleast throw him on the market and try to get the best possible return for him. Holland didn't do that, he found a convenient and easy trade to make with his buddy Yzerman and went ahead and did that.

Alternatively, he could have shopped Yamo's buyout around and paid a 2026 3rd or 4th round pick. Then signed Kostin for what he wanted at 2M then shopped Kostin around the League. There would have been a sizeable market for Kostin @ 2M even. Look at the Jeannot trade, a similar player type, older, less draft pedigree than Kostin, less production than Kostin at the time of trade (56GP - 14 pts vs. 57GP - 21 pts). You can't tell me Kostin couldn't have gotten atleast one 2nd rd pick.

You can’t tell me Kostin was worth a 2nd round pick either.

 

[TheNumber4]

Couple reasons why Jeannot got a haul. One he was making like 700k. A cap hit that any team can fit in. He had multiple years of play for a team to feel better about the cost. Stupid trade by TB still.

He was re-upped immediately after for 2.65M. So I don’t know how much of his value can be put on that 700K. It’s not like Tampa didn’t know he was going to require a new contract at the time the trade was made.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Maybe but Seattle signing him shows he had some value. His draft position and established production in the League should give him some value. Kostin for sure had some value. I don’t think Holland got the best deal possible for the players.

Yeah, he got signed for 1.5m.

Unless the oilers retained 50% he wasnt going anywhere, which would have been a worse move than what holland did.

 

[TheNumber4]

You can not measure one trade against the other and say it fair because of this other trade. Other wise Defensive men like Larsson should all return a 1st OA player. What did TML give up to the Canes to move Marleau a 1st and a 7th ? Yes I know his cap hit was higher than Yamamoto but less cash owing. I am also bet Kostin flops in Detroit .

You can if the they happened in the same time frame and all you are evaluating is money and term.

500k x 2 can be compared straight across to 1.9M x 2 (Average of Baileys buyout).

NYI paid a 26 2nd to move out 1.9M x 2. So we know 500kx2 should not have cost more than a 2nd. Based on that I’d say Yamo should have cost a 4th to get rid of.

You can’t tell me Kostin was worth a 2nd round pick either.

On Kostin’s value you can debate. And I admit it cant be compared directly and straight across to comparables like Jeannot. But you can still use similar deals to gauge the value, and make an educated guess. If you think Kostin is worth less than a 4th, then Holland made a good deal. If you think Kostin is worth more than a 4th, then Holland lost on value in this trade.

 

[TheNumber4]

Yeah, he got signed for 1.5m.

Unless the oilers retained 50% he wasnt going anywhere, which would have been a worse move than what holland did.

But we aren’t talking about moving Yamo the player and his 3.1M contract. We are talking about moving Yamos buy out of a measly 500K x 2. NYI paid a 2nd for Chicago to take on 1.9M x 2 of buyout cap. You’re telling me Holland couldn’t have found a taker for that buyout when it’s only a measly 500K?

 

[Bobieque]

Just did a search for “Kostin” on the website. One mention in HF Redwings that he’s probably the 13th forward. Not in their lineup tonight.

Other 477 posts are from HF Oil.

I might start reading HF Redwings to see if there is any Oilers discussion not mentioning Kostin.

 

[GOilers88]

Just did a search for “Kostin” on the website. One mention in HF Redwings that he’s probably the 13th forward. Not in their lineup tonight.

Other 477 posts are from HF Oil.

I might start reading HF Redwings to see if there is any Oilers discussion not mentioning Kostin.

Will be fun to revisit all the Kostin talk after this year.

 

[Oilhawks]

Will be fun to revisit all the Kostin talk after this year.

This is how it will go down:

1) Has a bad season: many Kostin boosters MIA, rest of the board mentions it once or twice

2) Has a good season: many Kostin boosters post the same thing a million times boasting their superior hockey knowledge and chastise the rest of the board in every thread until next season

3) Has an average season: many Kostin boosters overemphasize how “good” his season was and make every thread about him

I mean, I like Kostin but there is no way he was the right fit here for what he signed for with Detroit

 

[Soundwave]

If Kostin doesn't do well in Detroit, I'd be very happy to take him back here at 700k retained.

Some players just work better within certain teams.

 

[Messrules11]

Need some toughness in the bottom 6, not saying an everyday player but to have no one is just stupid.

 

[Mr Positive]

You can if the they happened in the same time frame and all you are evaluating is money and term.

500k x 2 can be compared straight across to 1.9M x 2 (Average of Baileys buyout).

NYI paid a 26 2nd to move out 1.9M x 2. So we know 500kx2 should not have cost more than a 2nd. Based on that I’d say Yamo should have cost a 4th to get rid of.




On Kostin’s value you can debate. And I admit it cant be compared directly and straight across to comparables like Jeannot. But you can still use similar deals to gauge the value, and make an educated guess. If you think Kostin is worth less than a 4th, then Holland made a good deal. If you think Kostin is worth more than a 4th, then Holland lost on value in this trade.

Imo Holland did lose value he could have got, but it's just a question of a perfect world vs a real one. I highly doubt that Holland didn't look around for that perfect move.

If there isn't a taker then it doesn't happen, and it may have been a timing thing. It was becoming clear that Kostin was not going to be an Oiler. At the time it was looking like we were going to lose him for nothing to the KHL, something that the Redwings had to figure out too. So the 2 million number wasn't even known.

All we do is bleed picks so why not just do the simple thing and send off Kostin as the compensation? It's not like anyone out there would have been that excited for either Kostin or Yamamoto.

Also it's not quite right to compare the Isles deal with Bailey to Yamamoto. The big difference is that Isles picks are worth a ton more than an Oilers pick. With the Isles there is a punchers chance that they aren't even a playoff team anymore. With the Oilers there is a punchers chance that the team wins the cup. So imo Yamamoto would be more like a 3rd

 

[Oilslick941611]

Need some toughness in the bottom 6, not saying an everyday player but to have no one is just stupid.

Erne is pretty tough, he likely makes the team.

 

[Messrules11]

Erne is pretty tough, he likely makes the team.

 

[TheNumber4]

Imo Holland did lose value he could have got, but it's just a question of a perfect world vs a real one. I highly doubt that Holland didn't look around for that perfect move.

If there isn't a taker then it doesn't happen, and it may have been a timing thing. It was becoming clear that Kostin was not going to be an Oiler. At the time it was looking like we were going to lose him for nothing to the KHL, something that the Redwings had to figure out too. So the 2 million number wasn't even known.

All we do is bleed picks so why not just do the simple thing and send off Kostin as the compensation? It's not like anyone out there would have been that excited for either Kostin or Yamamoto.

Also it's not quite right to compare the Isles deal with Bailey to Yamamoto. The big difference is that Isles picks are worth a ton more than an Oilers pick. With the Isles there is a punchers chance that they aren't even a playoff team anymore. With the Oilers there is a punchers chance that the team wins the cup. So imo Yamamoto would be more like a 3rd

I think it's pretty evident that he did lose value. And using comps is how you determine that. I mean how do you value ANYTHING in this League or ANYWHERE in general if not to use comps? Just make up values out of thin air?

If NYI paid a 1st++ to move 1.9M x 2, my calculus on this trade would be entirely different, and I would reconsider my take that Holland lost value in this trade. But the reality is they were able to get it done for a 2nd, which means you should expect a GM to able to move 500Kx2 for less than that. And that Bailey buyout happened within days of the Yamo one.. so it's not like the timeframe makes them incomparable. Yes, Islanders picks are worth more than Oilers picks if we are comparing the same picks in the same round and comparing the same buyout amounts but we aren't.

I don't know if I would say it's a matter of perfect move vs. realistic one. I think it was an UNDERSTANDABLE move though, I knew after we traded for Ekholm we'd be in a world of hurt cap wise. So I understand the move and the need for cap space. But to say it's unrealistic that he couldn't get more, relies on alot of assumptions about the market that we do not know and I wouldn't be willing to make. You'd have to assume no one is interested in Kostin (even though we know atleast Detroit was) and you'd have to assume no one was willing to take on a low buy-out (even though we know Chicago was). That's alot of assumptions to make in order to excuse the loss of value.

Pretty certain the 2M was known about before the Kostin trade went down and Yzerman was well aware of that number as well. Holland said this on Draft day before trading him to Yzerman. "He can live with 2, they all go to market they all want 3-4. He said, there's no one on the market like him, that can fight..."

It's not about losing or retaining picks. If Holland had gotten fair market value for his assets we'd actually have improved our picks. Send Yamo out for a 4th as a Buy Out. Trade out Kostin for a 2nd or 3rd and were ahead.

 

[Mr Positive]

I think it's pretty evident that he did lose value. And using comps is how you determine that. I mean how do you value ANYTHING in this League or ANYWHERE in general if not to use comps? Just make up values out of thin air?

If NYI paid a 1st++ to move 1.9M x 2, my calculus on this trade would be entirely different, and I would reconsider my take that Holland lost value in this trade. But the reality is they were able to get it done for a 2nd, which means you should expect a GM to able to move 500Kx2 for less than that. And that Bailey buyout happened within days of the Yamo one.. so it's not like the timeframe makes them incomparable. Yes, Islanders picks are worth more than Oilers picks if we are comparing the same picks in the same round and comparing the same buyout amounts but we aren't.

I don't know if I would say it's a matter of perfect move vs. realistic one. I think it was an UNDERSTANDABLE move though, I knew after we traded for Ekholm we'd be in a world of hurt cap wise. So I understand the move and the need for cap space. But to say it's unrealistic that he couldn't get more, relies on alot of assumptions about the market that we do not know and I wouldn't be willing to make. You'd have to assume no one is interested in Kostin (even though we know atleast Detroit was) and you'd have to assume no one was willing to take on a low buy-out (even though we know Chicago was). That's alot of assumptions to make in order to excuse the loss of value.

Pretty certain the 2M was known about before the Kostin trade went down and Yzerman was well aware of that number as well. Holland said this on Draft day before trading him to Yzerman. "He can live with 2, they all go to market they all want 3-4. He said, there's no one on the market like him, that can fight..."

It's not about losing or retaining picks. If Holland had gotten fair market value for his assets we'd actually have improved our picks. Send Yamo out for a 4th as a Buy Out. Trade out Kostin for a 2nd or 3rd and were ahead.

It's also true that leverage is changed by circumstances. Basically the Isles didn't need the cap space as much as we did.

Just like the Flyers demanding a 1st from the Sens to take on Joesph, a good player. The Sens are just too screwed right now and the vultures are circling.

And yes, it is the Ekholm deal that destroyed Holland's leverage. It was even worse considering this trade had to happen before July 1st, so Holland hadn't pulled off getting Brown for league min yet.

I also agree that Holland was honest about Kostin to Yzerman. Part of that is the rough number but also that he would be a headache to sign as he was using the KHL as leverage

 

[TheNumber4]

It's also true that leverage is changed by circumstances. Basically the Isles didn't need the cap space as much as we did.

Just like the Flyers demanding a 1st from the Sens to take on Joesph, a good player. The Sens are just too screwed right now and the vultures are circling.

And yes, it is the Ekholm deal that destroyed Holland's leverage. It was even worse considering this trade had to happen before July 1st, so Holland hadn't pulled off getting Brown for league min yet.

I also agree that Holland was honest about Kostin to Yzerman. Part of that is the rough number but also that he would be a headache to sign as he was using the KHL as leverage

Leverage is changed by circumstances. But leverage isn't the be all, end all determinant of a how a trade goes down. Even with differences in leverage, to the receiving team whatever Bad Cap they take on should be the determinant of the value. If they want to try to squeeze more value than it's worth due to having leverage, that's where it's on Holland to either negotiate against that successfully or not, or shop around.

Also, are you assuming the Isles didn't need cap space as bad as we did? I'm not an expert of their cap circumstances, but they look to be right up against it and are still in the red to be compliant even after that trade. The cap crunch situation for both franchises look to be about the same. The Oilers situation isn't that unique in today's flat cap league.

I don't think we can say he's headache to sign, atleast not at the number he wanted. It was quite easy to sign him at 2M and Yzerman did just that. Versus him going to an inferior League where the earning potential is much lower and like as a hockey player, who chooses the KHL if they have a choice to stay in the NHL? Then you look at a guy like Kravtsov who is also a former 1st rounder, younger than Kostin, and he only signed for 500K x 2. Kostin may have used the KHL as a negotiating tactic, how realistic that he was going to get NHL dollars in the KHL, i am suspicious of.

 

[Mr Positive]

Leverage is changed by circumstances. But leverage isn't the be all, end all determinant of a how a trade goes down. Even with differences in leverage, to the receiving team whatever Bad Cap they take on should be the determinant of the value. If they want to try to squeeze more value than it's worth due to having leverage, that's where it's on Holland to either negotiate against that successfully or not, or shop around.

Also, are you assuming the Isles didn't need cap space as bad as we did? I'm not an expert of their cap circumstances, but they look to be right up against it and are still in the red to be compliant even after that trade. The cap crunch situation for both franchises look to be about the same. The Oilers situation isn't that unique in today's flat cap league.

I don't think we can say he's headache to sign, atleast not at the number he wanted. It was quite easy to sign him at 2M and Yzerman did just that. Versus him going to an inferior League where the earning potential is much lower and like as a hockey player, who chooses the KHL if they have a choice to stay in the NHL? Then you look at a guy like Kravtsov who is also a former 1st rounder, younger than Kostin, and he only signed for 500K x 2. Kostin may have used the KHL as a negotiating tactic, how realistic that he was going to get NHL dollars in the KHL, i am suspicious of.

They might have needed some extra space but they still have some even with too many skaters on the roster and could have made up their short fall by going with 22 skaters.

We were entering the summer needing to re sign Bouchard and McLeod, and if we were ditching Yama we would be going for a forward of some kind. So sure the Isles had cap challenges but we had it much worse

 

[TheNumber4]

They might have needed some extra space but they still have some even with too many skaters on the roster and could have made up their short fall by going with 22 skaters.

We were entering the summer needing to re sign Bouchard and McLeod, and if we were ditching Yama we would be going for a forward of some kind. So sure the Isles had cap challenges but we had it much worse

At the end of the day though, it took ONE trade for both teams to get cap compliant or close to. With NYI having to move a larger contract and larger buyout amount to get it done... I don't know I view them as similar leverage situations, but we can disagree on that. At least the leverage situations were close enough to where I wouldn't think it would substantially change how the other GM deals with Holland and/or Lou.

 

[Messrules11]

Erne is pretty tough, he likely makes the team.

Sorry Oilslick, something went screwy on my end when I replied. I looked Erne up, 6-1 and 210 lbs, 40 pims for a season high. Hopefully he can throw em but we need a bigger guy, me thinks.

 

[CycloneSweep]

But we aren’t talking about moving Yamo the player and his 3.1M contract. We are talking about moving Yamos buy out of a measly 500K x 2. NYI paid a 2nd for Chicago to take on 1.9M x 2 of buyout cap. You’re telling me Holland couldn’t have found a taker for that buyout when it’s only a measly 500K?

He did find a taker. The cost was a guy that cleared waivers the previous season who wasn’t signing with us.

 

[TheNumber4]

He did find a taker. The cost was a guy that cleared waivers the previous season who wasn’t signing with us.

You think Kostins value is waiver wire fodder?

 

[CycloneSweep]

You think Kostins value is waiver wire fodder?

I think his value is around a 3rd/4th round pick

 

[bucks_oil]

You can if the they happened in the same time frame and all you are evaluating is money and term.

500k x 2 can be compared straight across to 1.9M x 2 (Average of Baileys buyout).

NYI paid a 26 2nd to move out 1.9M x 2. So we know 500kx2 should not have cost more than a 2nd. Based on that I’d say Yamo should have cost a 4th to get rid of.




On Kostin’s value you can debate. And I admit it cant be compared directly and straight across to comparables like Jeannot. But you can still use similar deals to gauge the value, and make an educated guess. If you think Kostin is worth less than a 4th, then Holland made a good deal. If you think Kostin is worth more than a 4th, then Holland lost on value in this trade.

I appreciate that you are trying to use comparables for valuation... I spend my days doing that. It's entirely logical.

But you aren't asking the right question. The question isn't "how much is Kostin worth in a vacuum". The question is: "how much is Kostin worth to Edmonton, and how likely is it that the counter-party knows that value?"

In this case, the answer is bounded by two things... yes, by the upper limit of how much others have had to pay for $500K x 2 worth of cap... that's a fairly aggressive position for you to take, since not all teams have that space and we needed to find one that had the space AND valued Kostin at $2M (or $2.5M net of Yamo buyout), which I'd argue is a very limited set... but we're going to let it fly for now.

But even conceding the above, the lower limit is still zero... since any GM with a brain would take one look at our VERY STRAIGHT-FORWARD offseason and conclude that:
1) Yamo must go, no matter what... unless they choose to exit contributors Foegele or Kulak
2) Bouchard would be prioritized, but only on a bridge at ~$4M if EDM is lucky and
3) Once that happens it will be a squeeze to retain RFA McLeod around $2M who surely would be the next priority and finally,
4) After that Kostin walks anyway... He is entirely an afterthought, zero room at any reasonable price and EDM will be lucky to find NHL caliber players at league minimum to fill out a 21-man roster with a few 100K to spare.

Which is exactly what we executed on... to the surprise of no one except maybe the pessimistic GM's who were taking the under on whether we could even get Bouchard and McLeod under contract for less than $6.5M... these were not slam dunk contracts.

SHOULD we have done anything more than that? And if we did, would it make Kostin a priority to Edmonton? Kostin over Kulak? Kostin over paying assets to shed Foegele? Not obvious answers, to be sure.

This is a player we got for nothing. He performed in a perfect situation for himself. He gets paid elsewhere. Everything else is just noise and a distraction from the priorities of the EDMONTON OILERS.

And if you want to continue to lament his loss, offer up the realistic sacrifice you would have made to keep him. You need to shed an extra $1M from the current 21-man roster. And what will THAT cost you? Is it still worth it... for Kostin?

 

[TheNumber4]

I think his value is around a 3rd/4th round pick

Agree to Disagree. If that’s the case, then we should have no issue finding an equivalent to trade for.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Agree to Disagree. If that’s the case, then we should have no issue finding an equivalent to trade for.

4th liners are a dime a dozen.