Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread | The Finishing Touches on the Roster/AKA Waiting For Cheap Signings

[Cloned]

what is good enough then?

For 9M?

Probably something like 8-15 goals, 30-35 assists. If you dial up the numbers in one, you can probably dial down the numbers in the other and still be good enough.

 

[K1984]

Hopefully he scores at least 10 goals next season if he is getting paid big. I am not expecting 20, it would be great, but I wouldn't bet on it.

100% and I think 10ish goals is a reasonable expectation that I think he would be almost guaranteed to hit.

There is no logical reason for the Oilers to walk away from Nurse at this point even if we all aren't completely comfortable with the $9 cap hit. It would be the ultimate bullet in the foot for what? A $1M overpayment per year? (not saying you are against signing him, but in general). Posters that are taking this stance are now trying to piece together a narrative to support this position "Shooting %! Not a team guy!" when its either complete nonsense or not relevant.

I've yet to hear any of them explain how we could possibly realistically move on from him and be competitive in the next few years.

 

[WaitingForUser]

what is good enough then?

I think a better question is why do people downplay second assists? If Nurse has a boatload of second assists it should indicate that he is moving the puck out of our zone to the forwards. Is that not what a two defenseman does? It’s the same with Barrie oh he gets a lot of second assists. Yeah because he moves the puck to our forwards if it was so easy Russell would be a 50 point guy no?

 

[Oilhawks]

Nurse might not be “as good” defensively as some of the other guys that got paid this offseason (though, is he any worse than Hamilton?), but his even strength production has always been reasonable and for what he lacks he more than makes up for in physical play / toughness and speed. JMO

 

[Cloned]

I think a better question is why do people downplay second assists? If Nurse has a boatload of second assists it should indicate that he is moving the puck out of our zone to the forwards. Is that not what a two defenseman does? It’s the same with Barrie oh he gets a lot of second assists. Yeah because he moves the puck to our forwards if it was so easy Russell would be a 50 point guy no?

It's not downplaying, it's the fact that 9M is a big number and only reserved for players who contribute and drive play directly a majority of the time they're on the ice.

Barrie is only getting paid half that amount, for example.

 

[K1984]

Nurse might not be “as good” defensively as some of the other guys that got paid this offseason (though, is he any worse than Hamilton?), but his even strength production has always been reasonable and for what he lacks he more than makes up for in physical play / toughness and speed. JMO

To add to this - is he any worse than Jones defensively?

 

[Oilhawks]

To add to this - is he any worse than Jones defensively?

Indeed, Hamilton and Jones aren’t exactly world beaters in their defensive game and they got PAID

 

[Broberg Speed]

To add to this - is he any worse than Jones defensively?

yes

 

[CycloneSweep]

Let's look at Darnell Nurse and how he ranks in the league over the past 2 years for defenders with a minimum of 1500 minutes played (131 players). And see how he stacks up.

Toi/GP: 19:54 (2nd)
Corsi%: 49.80 (75)
GF%: 58.51 (63)
GF/60: 3.2 (5th)
GA/60: 3.01 (125)
XGF/60: 2.57 (9th)
XGA/60: 2.55 (121)
PP/60: 1.13(14)
PDO:1.023 (41)

Okay now let's compare him to a guy who makes 9.5 mill signed recently and has been on a BAD team

Werenski
Toi/GP: 18:25 (14)
Corsi%: 49.80 (68)
GF%: 58.51 (41)
GF/60: 3.08 (70)
GA/60: 2.02 (33)
XGF/60: 2.21 (83)
XGA/60: 2.13 (47)
PP/60: 1.16 (20)
PDO:1.003 (63)

So Zach Werenski a guy on a horrible team, with no one even in the same universe, has lesser offensive numbers although they are close... But the defensive numbers are MASSIVELY in Werenskis favor. The Oilers scored goals 5v5 at the 10th highest rate, Columbus 29th.

So Werenski is clear cut way better defensively and the fact that he can put up near the same 5v5 numbers as Nurse on a much worse offensive team?

In what world is Nurse CLOSE to that in value overall as a player

 

[CycloneSweep]

That is a bit unfair IMO. If he comes in at $9.5 million or so I would tend to agree. He has always come across as a team guy and he has the added benefit of having a dad and uncle that were pro athletes and their careers could serve as a guideline for him.

I just added a post comparing him to a guy just signed that he will be using a comparable...he shouldnt come close to Werenski value wise.

 

[K1984]

Let's look at Darnell Nurse and how he ranks in the league over the past 2 years for defenders with a minimum of 1500 minutes played (131 players). And see how he stacks up.

Toi/GP: 19:54 (2nd)
Corsi%: 49.80 (75)
GF%: 58.51 (63)
GF/60: 3.2 (5th)
GA/60: 3.01 (125)
XGF/60: 2.57 (9th)
XGA/60: 2.55 (121)
PP/60: 1.13(14)
PDO:1.023 (41)

Okay now let's compare him to a guy who makes 9.5 mill signed recently and has been on a BAD team

Werenski
Toi/GP: 18:25 (14)
Corsi%: 49.80 (68)
GF%: 58.51 (41)
GF/60: 3.08 (70)
GA/60: 2.02 (33)
XGF/60: 2.21 (83)
XGA/60: 2.13 (47)
PP/60: 1.16 (20)
PDO:1.003 (63)

So Zach Werenski a guy on a horrible team, with no one even in the same universe, has lesser offensive numbers although they are close... But the defensive numbers are MASSIVELY in Werenskis favor. The Oilers scored goals 5v5 at the 10th highest rate, Columbus 29th.

So Werenski is clear cut way better defensively and the fact that he can put up near the same 5v5 numbers as Nurse on a much worse offensive team?

In what world is Nurse CLOSE to that in value overall as a player

Werenski also plays for a pure defensive minded team with much better goaltending. Werenski isn't on the ice for half the game when the forwards are constantly turning it over up ice like they tend to do in Edmonton. Werenski also had other competent defensmen on the team to shelter. Columbus was also far from "HORRIBLE" the year before last, they made the playoffs.

Also - Nurse at 5th for GF/60 - doesn't he suck at offense according to you?

Does Nurse get the benefit of any context, or does that just go to the other players?

 

[Oilhawks]

Let's look at Darnell Nurse and how he ranks in the league over the past 2 years for defenders with a minimum of 1500 minutes played (131 players). And see how he stacks up.

Toi/GP: 19:54 (2nd)
Corsi%: 49.80 (75)
GF%: 58.51 (63)
GF/60: 3.2 (5th)
GA/60: 3.01 (125)
XGF/60: 2.57 (9th)
XGA/60: 2.55 (121)
PP/60: 1.13(14)
PDO:1.023 (41)

Okay now let's compare him to a guy who makes 9.5 mill signed recently and has been on a BAD team

Werenski
Toi/GP: 18:25 (14)
Corsi%: 49.80 (68)
GF%: 58.51 (41)
GF/60: 3.08 (70)
GA/60: 2.02 (33)
XGF/60: 2.21 (83)
XGA/60: 2.13 (47)
PP/60: 1.16 (20)
PDO:1.003 (63)

So Zach Werenski a guy on a horrible team, with no one even in the same universe, has lesser offensive numbers although they are close... But the defensive numbers are MASSIVELY in Werenskis favor. The Oilers scored goals 5v5 at the 10th highest rate, Columbus 29th.

So Werenski is clear cut way better defensively and the fact that he can put up near the same 5v5 numbers as Nurse on a much worse offensive team?

In what world is Nurse CLOSE to that in value overall as a player

He can be ‘worse’ than Werenski and it can still be a reasonable deal.

The other thing is Werenski is paid for 6 years, perhaps 8 years would have cost more? Not to mention I’m pretty sure some of Werenski’s years are RFA and Nurse is all UFA

 

[The Nuge]

The time to make a decision on Darnell Nurse was two years ago.

Nurse was asking for 7M. The Oilers saw that as a risk. This board didn't like the idea. Had they signed the deal it would have been the kind of undervalue deal that would have allowed the Oilers cap flexibility to maneuver better. Let that be the lesson to lean into risk/reward deals for younger players.

But the market on Nurse is 100% set. Trading him isn't a real option for any sane manager. It just is what it is & there's no way around it.

He was a 25 year old #3 dman. If we gave him 7 and he stagnated (like Larsson did for example), then that contract becomes a boat anchor that makes it hard to compete. We also would have had a harder time filling out the roster, as we were out of capspace as is

 

[CycloneSweep]

Werenski also plays for a pure defensive minded team with much better goaltending. Werenski isn't on the ice for half the game when the forwards are constantly turning it over up ice like they tend to do in Edmonton.

Does Nurse get the benefit of any context, or does that just go to the other players?

Werenski plays for a fully defensive minded team but their team s% over the past 2 years is like...0.007 higher than the Oilers 5v5.

The context with Nurse is he plays heavy minutes with McDavid, gets a metric shit ton of opportunity offensively and produces at a near identical rate as a guy like Werenski who has no one close to McDavid on his team, all the while being substantially better defensively.

 

[Oilhawks]

He was a 25 year old #3 dman. If we gave him 7 and he stagnated (like Larsson did for example), then that contract becomes a boat anchor that makes it hard to compete. We also would have had a harder time filling out the roster, as we were out of capspace as is

This is pretty important.

Imagine how much worse the already hurting rosters would have been with $1.4M less to work with the last two seasons

 

[K1984]

Werenski plays for a fully defensive minded team but their team s% over the past 2 years is like...0.007 higher than the Oilers 5v5.

The context with Nurse is he plays heavy minutes with McDavid, gets a metric shit ton of opportunity offensively and produces at a near identical rate as a guy like Werenski who has no one close to McDavid on his team, all the while being substantially better defensively.

He's not even on the top PP unit....

Regardless - based on all this I'm going to assume your stance is Nurse could just be replaced by a bare average player and produce the same due to all these supposed benefits that he's getting, but not earning. Which is ridiculous.

 

[CycloneSweep]

He's not even on the top PP unit....

Yes. All those numbers were 5v5. With all the time Nurse spends with McDavid.. and the best offensive guy Werenski had was 49 point Dubois...them being close at all should say something

 

[Oilhawks]

Let's look at Darnell Nurse and how he ranks in the league over the past 2 years for defenders with a minimum of 1500 minutes played (131 players). And see how he stacks up.

Toi/GP: 19:54 (2nd)
Corsi%: 49.80 (75)
GF%: 58.51 (63)
GF/60: 3.2 (5th)
GA/60: 3.01 (125)
XGF/60: 2.57 (9th)
XGA/60: 2.55 (121)
PP/60: 1.13(14)
PDO:1.023 (41)

Okay now let's compare him to a guy who makes 9.5 mill signed recently and has been on a BAD team

Werenski
Toi/GP: 18:25 (14)
Corsi%: 49.80 (68)
GF%: 58.51 (41)
GF/60: 3.08 (70)
GA/60: 2.02 (33)
XGF/60: 2.21 (83)
XGA/60: 2.13 (47)
PP/60: 1.16 (20)
PDO:1.003 (63)

So Zach Werenski a guy on a horrible team, with no one even in the same universe, has lesser offensive numbers although they are close... But the defensive numbers are MASSIVELY in Werenskis favor. The Oilers scored goals 5v5 at the 10th highest rate, Columbus 29th.

So Werenski is clear cut way better defensively and the fact that he can put up near the same 5v5 numbers as Nurse on a much worse offensive team?

In what world is Nurse CLOSE to that in value overall as a player

The other thing I’d like to point out is that the defensive stat that is likely the most important (IMO) is the XGA/60

It’s 0.42 worse than Werenski’s, compared to the GA/60 which is a whole 1.0 higher. The expected defensive difference between the two is a lot less pronounced (0.42 as mentioned). I think Nurse is going to look a lot better playing with forwards that actually have a two way game (yes I know he played a ton with McDrai). How many of those goals against were when he was playing with the black holes of a bottom 6?

 

[K1984]

Yes. All those numbers were 5v5. With all the time Nurse spends with McDavid.. and the best offensive guy Werenski had was 49 point Dubois...them being close at all should say something

Ok - Werenski is better than Nurse. Sure. Don't agree, but sure.

Explain to me how it would be beneficial to the Oilers to move on from Nurse with the expectation of winning anything over the next 4-5 years. Truthfully it is the only relevant thing here, and you, nor anybody else has explained how it is at all realistically possible to compete with Nurse walking.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Ok - Werenski is better than Nurse. Sure. Don't agree, but sure.

Explain to me how it would be beneficial to the Oilers to move on from Nurse with the expectation of winning anything over the next 4-5 years. Truthfully it is the only relevant thing here, and you, nor anybody else has explained how it is at all realistically possible to compete with Nurse walking.

It's a no win situation.

Doesn't make the deal good in the slightest.

You have yet to even explain how Nurse is worth close to it. All you have said is "Nurse good"

 

[K1984]

It's a no win situation.

Doesn't make the deal good in the slightest.

You have yet to even explain how Nurse is worth close to it. All you have said is "Nurse good"

What's he worth then?

I don't need to explain what Nurse does on the ice, it's obvious to everyone here what he does. Even if $9 is an overpay (it's pure market, he would get that and more in UFA), it is maybe a $1M per year overpay. That does not cripple any team, so doing the mental gymnastics of trying to prove why it's such a bad deal is pointless and frankly not relevant.

 

[Shathar]

Ok - Werenski is better than Nurse. Sure. Don't agree, but sure.

Explain to me how it would be beneficial to the Oilers to move on from Nurse with the expectation of winning anything over the next 4-5 years. Truthfully it is the only relevant thing here, and you, nor anybody else has explained how it is at all realistically possible to compete with Nurse walking.

It isn't. Hence, the dilemma.

 

[CycloneSweep]

The other thing I’d like to point out is that the defensive stat that is likely the most important (IMO) is the XGA/60

It’s 0.42 worse than Werenski’s, compared to the GA/60 which is a whole 1.0 higher. The expected defensive difference between the two is a lot less pronounced (0.42 as mentioned). I think Nurse is going to look a lot better playing with forwards that actually have a two way game (yes I know he played a ton with McDrai). How many of those goals against were when he was playing with the black holes of a bottom 6?

His xGF plummets away from McDrai but xGA stays about the same. His actual GA and GF get terrible away from them.

That said 856 minutes 5v5 out of like 2500 minutes away from McDrai. So he plays the vast majority of his time with them

 

[CycloneSweep]

What's he worth then?

I don't need to explain what Nurse does on the ice, it's obvious to everyone here what he does. Even if $9 is an overpay (it's pure market, he would get that and more in UFA), it is maybe a $1M per year overpay. That does not cripple any team, so doing the mental gymnastics of trying to prove why it's such a bad deal is pointless and frankly not relevant.

How is providing data mental gymnastics?

And yes you should explain what he does well in the ice. Saying "you're wrong everyone knows it" isn't shit. I'm providing data and info, that's not mental gymnastics.

 

[belair]

The other thing I’d like to point out is that the defensive stat that is likely the most important (IMO) is the XGA/60

It’s 0.42 worse than Werenski’s, compared to the GA/60 which is a whole 1.0 higher. The expected defensive difference between the two is a lot less pronounced (0.42 as mentioned). I think Nurse is going to look a lot better playing with forwards that actually have a two way game (yes I know he played a ton with McDrai). How many of those goals against were when he was playing with the black holes of a bottom 6?

27-15 with both
23-20 with Connor
11-4 with Leon
10-17 without

His contract is going to suck. He's overrated defensively, he's kind of a mess offensively and he's about to get paid like an elite D. But he's an incredible athlete, he's going to play the majority of his deal with McDrai, next to Barrie, then likely next to Bouchard. He'll always be in a position to succeed.

He's gonna be overpaid. So be it.