Proposal: Rumors and Proposals Thread: The Dog Days of Summer

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BudBundy

Registered User
May 16, 2005
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Friedman likes to speculate on air but this seems to be direct enough to have an air of credibility. It’s mentioned on the main a few times, and I agree, that Vancouver is likely involved purely as an intermediary. They will suck up max salary retention in exchange for a pick or prospect, allowing a better team to bring Karlsson in. My money is on Tampa Bay as they have enough young guys and picks to afford it and would be a desired landing spot for Karlsson and his wife. No chance he gets within 1000 miles of fish-bowls like Edmonton or Vancouver.
 

Jimmi McJenkins

Sometimes miracles
Jan 12, 2006
75,632
35,515
Alberta
They're their only picks. They added squat this year in terms of quality future talent. Vegas is probably holding onto their top guys like Glass, Suzuki and Theodore. After that I think they get passed by what some other teams are capable of offering.

I agree though. The Sens will probably end up settling on the bigger package of average prospects if they can manage to get a team to bite on the rest of Ryan's contract. That's why I see team's like Vancouver and Colorado being the more likely suitors.
I don't think there's any chance he would want to be anywhere in Canada. I agree that Colorado is a better spot probably, but Vegas can take bad contracts too.
 

SK13

non torsii subligarium
Jul 23, 2007
32,762
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Edmonton
Continuing a discussion that ended in the last thread, that I am unable to properly quote.

Originally Posted By: MessierII
Like anything you need context. Larsson and Klefbom shared the ice in 2016-17 at even strength the majority of the time yet the difference in on ice save % is substantial. With a guy like Larsson it’s no coincidence his goalies have ridiculously high save %’s consistently spanning different teams and different goalies.

Here’s Larssons even strength on ice save %’s last 5 years.

.920
.938
.941
.923
.921

You think that’s a coincidence? Larsson is ridiculously good at defending. He limits chances against and it helps the goalies not get scored on.

Klefbom on the other hand often makes bad turnovers and bad reads in his own end. It’s not just chance his on ice save % is consistently worse than the rest of our top 4 D (exception of Sekera on one leg this year).

Yes, context is important. But you've utterly failed to provide proper context in every regard. For starters, on-ice save percentage is maybe only useful (if it is useful at all, and there is debate on that) as a measure against the teams average and with the proper context of player usage. Matt Benning is not the best defenseman on the team, and could be argued as the best with naked on-ice save percentage.

For another, it stands to reason that Klefbom and Larsson have identical on-ice save percentage when they are together. So what is the context of their ice-time when apart that creates this disparity? Why do other teams have significant defensive players consistently, or sporadically, at the low-end? Who was Klefbom playing with? Who was Larsson playing with? Against? In how big of a sample?

Either way, your conclusion depends on the idea that Klefbom on-ice means more scoring chances and high danger scoring chances against. This is demonstrably not true. We can see that in spite of big visual errors, the Oilers do not face more chances in general. This is in large part because when Klefbom is not making visible errors, the Oilers are moving the puck better and attacking more than with other defenseman. This was apparent when Klefbom was playing with Justin Schultz on the top pair of a significantly worse Oilers team.

Originally Posted By: Aerchon
Klefbom fails the eye test very very obviously defensively and outside of maybe a total of 82 games has ALWAYS failed the eye test very very obviously. A full on defensive defensman like Larsson is required to make up for his poor defensive play. As well as stellar goaltending.

Further proof that the eye test, particularly when it comes to defenseman, is worthless. Particularly among lay-men who vent on forums.

The frustration of people who key in on obvious errors weighed on the far more subtle reality that the Oilers, since Klefbom walked into the league in 2013, win more with him on the ice than they lose.
 

MessierII

Registered User
Aug 10, 2011
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Matt Benning is not the best defenseman on the team, and could be argued as the best with naked on-ice save percentage.
No you couldn’t. He’s never once had the best on ice save % so no you could not make that argument.
This is demonstrably not true. We can see that in spite of big visual errors, the Oilers do not face more chances in general.
Is it?

View media item 2321
 

guymez

The Seldom Seen Kid
Mar 3, 2004
33,169
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So by some metrics it appears that Nurse is a top 4 dman. Klefbom and Larsson most certainly are.
So if all that is accurate then really this D is looking for a player to fill a #4 role.

If nothing changes then perhaps the question becomes...can any of Russell, Benning, Jerabek, and Gravel fill this hole individually or as a group through some kind of rotation?

If so then just how bad is this current scenario?
 
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A91

Oilers + Real Madrid
May 21, 2011
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Is anyone else worried about our secondary scoring?

We are counting on too many things to happen
- Lucic rebound
- JP emerging as a consistent top6 option
- Rieder rebound
- Strome to carry a line offensively (more or less)
 

A91

Oilers + Real Madrid
May 21, 2011
6,944
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I've been worrying about it for over a year. Worst wings in the league.

Yup. You would think with McDavid in the fold that we would build the team offensively and make it our biggest strength.
McDavid, RNH and Drai cannot have an off night. If one of them does we likely lose the game.
 

belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
38,653
21,852
Canada
Is anyone else worried about our secondary scoring?

We are counting on too many things to happen
- Lucic rebound
- JP emerging as a consistent top6 option
- Rieder rebound
- Strome to carry a line offensively (more or less)
I think putting Strome and Lucic together at evens might knock two of your bullet points off themselves. If you give them a good 60+ games together healthy, you'd probably see a healthy improvement on both of their previous seasons.

So no, I'm not overly worried about our ability to create offense. McDavid will create regardless of who he's playing with, which is why I'm penciling a guy making 800k on his right wing. Draisaitl is a bit of a wildcard as this is his first full season centering his own unit, but he'll be getting the cream of the crop so to speak in terms of what we have to offer in terms of line mates on the wing.

The significant concern I have in regards to how much they'll be able to improve their special teams--specifically the PP, which only managed to provide us with 31 goals last season.
 

A91

Oilers + Real Madrid
May 21, 2011
6,944
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I think putting Strome and Lucic together at evens might knock two of your bullet points off themselves. If you give them a good 60+ games together healthy, you'd probably see an improvement on both of their previous seasons.

So no, I'm not overly worried about our ability to create offense. McDavid will create regardless of who he's playing with, which is why I'm penciling a guy making 800k on his right wing. Draisaitl is a bit of a wildcard as this is his first full season centering his own unit, but he'll be getting the cream of the crop so to speak in terms of what we have to offer in terms of line mates on the wing.

Or Strome and Lucic could struggle, if I was a betting man I would agree with you and say they would form an average at worst 3rd line however we cant count on so many maybes. That was a major part of the reason why we struggled last season.

The issue is scoring outside of the big 3. I'm confident in 97, 93 and 29.
 
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Ruok

Feeling Hyman.
Jun 21, 2011
2,460
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Is anyone else worried about our secondary scoring?

We are counting on too many things to happen
- Lucic rebound
- JP emerging as a consistent top6 option
- Rieder rebound
- Strome to carry a line offensively (more or less)
Probably our biggest concern. Oilers are really reliant on their farm system to fill holes in the next few years. If that doesn't work we are probably hooped
 
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Took a pill in Sbisa

2showToffoliIwascool
Apr 23, 2004
16,326
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Is anyone else worried about our secondary scoring?

We are counting on too many things to happen
- Lucic rebound
- JP emerging as a consistent top6 option
- Rieder rebound
- Strome to carry a line offensively (more or less)

As easy as it is to point out wingers as the least important position, there's not a single playoff team last year that has such a pitiful group of wingers as we will have heading into this season. I was going to say Colorado, but even they had two 60+ point wingers.
It's so dejecting going into this season knowing that we're nowhere near a contending team. We've been bad for over a decade and all we have to show for it are two great centers and gaping holes through the rest of the lineup.
 
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oXo Cube

Power Play Merchant
Nov 4, 2008
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When Friedman says “Western Conference” I think Sharks.

I'm thinking Colorado.

They have the cap space, the young core ready to take the next step, the expendable assets to make the trade happen, and as an added bonus they can give the Senators Jack Hughes their first round pick back as part of the package.
 

Joey Moss

Registered User
Aug 29, 2008
36,163
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Just to chime in on Davidson.. He's probably thinking we of all teams know what he brings, a PTO is a bit insulting after we signed Jerabek.

As for Karlsson, the Sekera injury makes me wish we were in on Karlsson to an extent but we also don't have the assets to make a move for a 1 year rental.
 

iCanada

Registered User
Feb 6, 2010
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Probably our biggest concern. Oilers are really reliant on their farm system to fill holes in the next few years. If that doesn't work we are probably hooped

That's kind of how every team in modern pro sports works?
 

nhlisajoke

Registered User
Nov 15, 2010
1,537
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Edmonton
Oilers might be moving a forward here soon for a D via trade per source. Trying to find out what's going on. I'll update soon.

From Twitter from a guy that's been correct before
 

KCC

Registered User
Aug 15, 2007
18,462
9,454
Is anyone else worried about our secondary scoring?

We are counting on too many things to happen
- Lucic rebound
- JP emerging as a consistent top6 option
- Rieder rebound
- Strome to carry a line offensively (more or less)

Oh absolutely. Plus the defense is just awful. Unless we get some nice surprises and players start stepping up and be consistent, the team is a few injuries away from a very, very long year once again.
 

Cloned

Begging for Bega
Aug 25, 2003
79,449
65,492
Oilers might be moving a forward here soon for a D via trade per source. Trying to find out what's going on. I'll update soon.

From Twitter from a guy that's been correct before

Lucic for Gudbrandson.
 
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