Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread: Hallsy Take 2?

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Once I brush away the nostalgia around Halls (potential) return this is where I am left as well.

I wouldnt pay him more than $8M and he is going to get much more than that as a UFA.
So Hall is an absolute no go for this team.
He simply doesnt bring enough value for the contract he will get.

Any team stupid enough to pay Hall the Panarin beating contract he will want will come to regret it.

I was at an Oiler event yesterday morning and listening to Kieth Gretzky speak on that topic - and he said up front he cant discuss Hall or that is tampering - it sure did not sound like there was a sliver of interest in acquiring Hall, salary structure being key among them. As well it was mentioned the Devils will be one of the few teams with the cap space to sign him to the $11-$12M contract he will be wanting and they need to cater to their fan base big time.

This Hall talk is all Friedman doing what he does best, speculate about shit to drum up interest. Case in point, McDavid will be leaving the Oilers in 2 years if they dont show progress. When asked about this he is up front and says it is mere speculation, no different than his Hall hawt taek.

Let the Hall fantasy go. He isn't coming to Edmonton.

 

[Raab]

For what we’d pay Hall, we could probably land Toffoli and Pageau. I’d rather have those two guys as I think it helps our depth

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Just an addendum for curiosity's sake
Nathan MacKinnon GAR(3 year avg)= 15.733, WAR(3 year avg)= 3
Aleksander Barkov (GAR(3 year avg)=18.1, WAR(3 year avg)=3.433
Sebastion Aho GAR(3 year avg)= 10.133, WAR(3 year avg)= 1.933
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins GAR(3 year avg)= 2.867, WAR(3 year avg)= 0.533

Nuge's 2016/17 season was heavily into the negatives which tanked his numbers

Nuge's 2018/19 GAR=9, WAR=1.7
Hall 2018/19 GAR= 7.8, WAR=1.5

Hall's numbers listed above were heavily tanked by his injury plagued season last year, but even at his worst he's about on par with Nuge at his best. If Hall's 18/19 season was removed and was only evaluated on his 16/17 and 17/18 season it looks like he'd be roughly the 3rd best forward in the league per the GAR and WAR metrics, *disclaimer I didn't look at every forward in the league just pulled up guys I thought might be a challenger for being one of the 5 best forwards in the league.

edit: Brayden Point's numbers are ridiculously good and trending up GAR(3 year avg)= 17.333, WAR (3 year avg)= 3.3

 

[Canovin]

For what we’d pay Hall, we could probably land Toffoli and Pageau. I’d rather have those two guys as I think it helps our depth

And then some.

 

[Macblender]

Take away all the goals scored with either McDavid or Leon on the ice will give you an idea of how little out depth is

Neal who is listed on the 2nd line--how many of his goals were scored with out Dynamic Duo on the ice?

Chaisson would be the gut moved down the to the bottom 6 and how many goals does he have playing in the top 6

I have looked at adding Hall 6 ways from sundays at 10 mill a year and it does not work unless you want only players making under 1mill a year in the bottom 6--that is what we we have already

and Pouliots contract comes off the books after the 20/21 season and not this season--GRybas does

Sure I don't disagree but pushing players who are 3rd line types down the line up out of your top 6 ish still good. We have Yamo, Pulju (not that he will be around), McLeod, Benson, and marody who like to be 3rd line options in the near future.

That's exactly what I said for Pouliot... His contract comes up when RNHs new one would kick in after next season. That could be used purely to give RNH a raise and we don't really have any other big contracts coming up then IMO.

 

[CupofOil]

I think that Nurse is the price for Hall. The added prospect/pick is for taking on Gagner and probably too much. I don't usually play the trade-players-games so it is not surprising that I don't know the value of that.

Still the main point of my post is that imo Nurse, or possibly Klefbom, will be main piece from Edmonton in a Hall trade.

Absolutely zero chance that's the price.
Look at what Karlsson and Stone returned. The ask would probably be Bouchard or Broberg and that's in the case of a sign and trade (the Stone example).

 

[Highmarker]

Hall will want too much money so unless we are trading him for a cup run rental player this year Edmonton should pass. Hall is not worth the 10 + million dollars he's going to command.

 

[Oilers in NS]

I've already mentioned the Leafs being a terrible example when speaking of cap commitments. Their defense will be a victim in short order due to their frivolous spending up front.

Yes like next year. Rielly is only Dman signed after next year. If they don't win this year, it will be never. Dubas is a younger version of Chiarelli

Toronto Maple Leafs - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Oilers in NS]

Hall will be over 10 for sure. There are some good wingers out there for less. kreider, Hoffman, Tofolli.

I'd be interested in Kreider. He is 28 making 4.6. Curious to see what he would want

 

[Oilers in NS]

I haven't seen Tippet pull off anything different than McLellan did. The only difference in that McDavid/Draisaitl have started the season with a 2+ ppg avg and the goaltenders haven't been demoralized yet because of being peppered for 45 minutes a game.

Gotta dis-agree with ya. Proof is in the numbers and our numbers are much better with Tippet. I was sick of that Blender BS under Todd. I'm sorry but I was never a big believer with Todd. He couldn't get a good SJ team there even when they had LA 3-0

 

[Oilers in NS]

The team is playing an entirely different structure, and it's a lot more effective overall. Plus he actually line matches. Tippet is a coach that gets more out of his rosters rather than about what one would expect on average. The jury is still out on the bottom 6 (I think they need a few more offensively minded guys plugged in but they value defensively sound and PK guys understandably), but the PK and PP are improved as well. The PP as Tippet admits is a lot to do with personell (and GG was manning it last year anyhow so it shouldn't look a lot different), but the PK was been more aggressive and dynamic, aside from when they were dogging it a bit last night.

Just mentioned that myself. Proof is in the numbers

 

[alphahelix]

Maybe the reason there has been so much smoke about Hall since he left is that he has quietly expressed interest in returning. IF thats the case, then theres a chance. And lets be honest, If we add Hall to our group other players will take discounts to be a part of the parade (especially if he takes a small haircut for us).

 

[Oilers in NS]

100% agreed. I think Hall will value winning a cup (or more) than a couple million a year. Obviously it adds up but players have sacrificed money for winning before. The maturity is likely there for him to concede being the go to guy as well, and I think he'd take ownership of running a 1B line. It just depends on if he sees us as one of those options (if he makes it to UFA), or if we can work out a deal with Shero (if he's traded after expressing interest to Shero of coming here).

Plus all of the management and player baggage from before I think are no longer here. Friedman alluded to that as well.

I don't live in Edmonton but I know lots there. When I went to my first game at Rogers last year, I was in the line-up with a fella and we talked Oilers. He was local and we talked Hall. He mentioned that Hall had to go to rehab during his stint in Edmonton. He seemed to know quite a bit about the Oilers and the problems in-house. I realize these are rumors but it makes one wonder why we go so less value on the trade.
I would actually welcome Hall back. Kassian had problems and now look in what we have in Kassian. Winning to me is much more important then making 11 mil compared to 9. Hall is not getting any younger. Maybe he wants to come back. He was pissed when he was traded

 

[Oilers in NS]

Maybe the reason there has been so much smoke about Hall since he left is that he has quietly expressed interest in returning. IF thats the case, then theres a chance. And lets be honest, If we add Hall to our group other players will take discounts to be a part of the parade (especially if he takes a small haircut for us).

I'll be part of the parade as well. The Stanley Cup Parade!

 

[Skolman]

How about Bouchard for Heiskenen? Or Bouchard plus JP and a 2nd.

Lol....

 

[Oilers in NS]

How about Bouchard for Heiskenen? Or Bouchard plus JP and a 2nd.

Dallas will not trade Heiskenen. Dman like that don't come around too often. He is trending up big time and will be a #1 Dman in Dallas for a long time. What a skater

 

[Louis Cypher]

Why Trade for Hall. Just wait until he's a UFA. Just like Tavares. Even then do we want to blow $10m on a guy who is hurt 1/3 of the time.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

For what we’d pay Hall, we could probably land Toffoli and Pageau. I’d rather have those two guys as I think it helps our depth

Since I still have it open:
Pageau GAR(3 year avg)= 1.067, WAR(3 year avg)=0.2
Toffolli GAR(3 year avg)= 3.767, WAR(3 year avg)=0.733

So Hall's benefit to our goal differential and increased win totals above your average replacement player is roughly 15 times greater than the separation between Pageau and your average replacement player and for Toffolli, Hall's is roughly 4.25 times more impactful in contrast. Or if you want to look at it in a funnier way 3 Toffolli's and 4.5 Pageau's are cumulatively as impactful as Hall, in the real world that might not ring true cause Toffolli and Pageau's numbers will likely improve as the continue to be pushed down the line-up.

I don't want to entirely make light of perfectly valid points in concerns over injury history, age based decline, too many eggs in one basket, or just the general desire for improved depth, but people are acting like Hall is just a good or really good player and I just want it to be known that Hall is a legitimately great player, when he is healthy he is an absolute monster and his impact is immense. A rough collection of grab bag players are unlikely to have the same level of impact as him, not only cause of what he does himself, but his ability to elevate his linemates up another notch.

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

No thanks to Taylor Hall. Keep the cancer away from this team.

 

[FlameChampion]

I have no idea how a dinosaur like Mark Stone can get that amount. What a stupid GM to give him that......he's never ever hit 80 points in a season. Any player north of 6mill should be an elite player which Stone is not. Nathan Mackinnon deserves 9.5mill before Stone even sniffs 5mill.

I think I would rather pay Stone 9.5mil a year over 8 years then Hall 9.5 mil over 8 years.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

I think Hall will be too expensive to:
a) Acquire via trade and,
b) Extend his next contract.

Why not go after a guy like Jason Zucker instead? He's signed to a cap friendly deal for a few more seasons at $5.5 million but does have a modified NTC.

I think his wife called out Wild management over social media and Zucker called out everyone last night from Boudreau down.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Maybe the reason there has been so much smoke about Hall since he left is that he has quietly expressed interest in returning. IF thats the case, then theres a chance. And lets be honest, If we add Hall to our group other players will take discounts to be a part of the parade (especially if he takes a small haircut for us).

You sound like a Leafs fan.

 

[Little Fury]

Yes, the only way to get scoring depth is by trading for and signing an elite forward.
The Oilers already have the elite talent. They don't need a 10m+ player to drive a 2nd line. It's lunacy actually.

Furthermore, you're killing any chance of depth if you sign Hall. Say bye to RNH, say bye to any defensive depth once Nurse is signed for 7m+ or more likely 8m if he puts up another 40+ point season.
Oh and god forbid if/when an injury occurs (which I'd bet would be Hall). Then it really does become McDavid, Draisaitl and nothing else.
Not to mention that Hall will be 30+ throughout most of the contract and forwards especially tend to decline in their early 30s.

It's a nice idea on paper and I'm sure it would be entertaining but stacking the top of the roster (all forwards) with three franchise dollar players is not a sustainable model for Cup contention IMO.
If they could dump Neal's contract then I'd be more open to it but I don't see that happening.

The 2016 and 2017 Penguins would like a word.

 

[Canovin]

I think Hall will be too expensive to:
a) Acquire via trade and,
b) Extend his next contract.

Why not go after a guy like Jason Zucker instead? He's signed to a cap friendly deal for a few more seasons at $5.5 million but does have a modified NTC.

I think his wife called out Wild management over social media and Zucker called out everyone last night from Boudreau down.

If Zucker waives his NTC to play for the Oilers, we don't have to honor it after that?

 

[Ritchie Valens]

If Zucker waives his NTC to play for the Oilers, we don't have to honor it after that?

I don't believe so.