Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread: Get Connor, Leon and Nuge Some Help Damn it!

[bobbythebrain]

Going to be a busy summer. Think most of our picks and prospects are going to be moved for immediate help.

Friedman has become such a dip****

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Brazeau gets an AHL deal. Confirms that NHL scouts saw the same thing I did in that series. Not enough to like about his game translating to the NHL to use one of your 50 contract spots on him right now.

He would be the worst skater in the nhl probably

 

[Joey Moss]

We need to trade our 1st.. as much as we probably don't want to Chiarelli left us with no assets.

If we can pull off a deal like ARZ did for Stepan and Raanta we need to do it.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Going to be a busy summer. Think most of our picks and prospects are going to be moved for immediate help.

Friedman says dumb shit to get clicks on his 31 thoughts... who would of thought. This guys just as scenile as cherry at half the age

 

[CycloneSweep]

Going to be a busy summer. Think most of our picks and prospects are going to be moved for immediate help.

Nope.
You move all your picks for immediate help we make playoffs and McDavid leaves at the 3nd of the 8 years cause the team had no young assets to keep coming in and keep us afloat.

Have a GM with a plan come in and sell the team on a direction and McDavid will see the contract out

 

[Heavy Dee]

Pretty sure Larsson is the guy to get moved

 

[Macblender]

We need to trade our 1st.. as much as we probably don't want to Chiarelli left us with no assets.

If we can pull off a deal like ARZ did for Stepan and Raanta we need to do it.

I honestly do not believe we need to. The type of player we would be targeting in that deal would not allow us to add multiple high level assets.

There is a very limited range of players the 1st should be in play for as examples of guys who m0ve the needle and likely give us a solidified second line or top pair D:
Ehlers
K. Connor
Huberdeau (if they go full press on Panarin and Bob)
Landeskog
Trouba
Zibanejad
Hampus Lindholm

Otherwise I think you can get guys like JT Miller with a second round pick or two and Yamo and still keep a top 8 pick in all likelihood.

 

[North]

Deny if u want but they are out there true or Not

Yeah I don’t give a shit about wishful thinking from the Toronto media.

 

[rockinghockey]

If we moved out Russell and Benning would that give us enough cap room to use our 1st for Ehlers and then make a trade for Miller. That would be two nice additions in our top 6

 

[belair]

Sorry for the delayed response, got caught up with some stuff yesterday. It's a good debate.

The problem with their rationale in 2015 was that they were basing their draft on current need, not who the best player was. It's kind of what you're saying now, that they shouldn't draft Hughes because he doesn't fill an immediate need, will be on the 2nd line etc. so trade it for lesser, even more unknown prospects.

It's not similar at all though. In 2015 we weren't passing on an immediate--or even certain--NHLer at the time. We were moving a valuable draft pick for a single prospect that our amateur scouts were confident would be able to make an impact at the NHL level much sooner than anyone on the board at the time. They were chasing a defenseman, but the idea was about immediate gratification. And it blew up in their face.

The idea of moving the pick here--and comparing it to another year in 2012 where we would have been better off moving the 1st overall--is served by the fact that the 1st overall pick is essentially never a prospect once that pick is made. It's an immediate roster player whose clock starts ticking to their inevitably expensive second contract.

The idea of trading that pick isn't about immediate gratification, it's essentially about monetizing the value of that pick, if that makes a bit more sense to understand. Turning something that would otherwise be a single entity on your NHL roster and turning into multiple valuable assets that can be utilized as you please whenever necessary.

There are numerous examples this season of high end players becoming available on the open market. And each time there's a palpable frustration about this team not being a part of the discussions. There's always the question of why the Edmonton Oilers are never a team that trades up in deals. And essentially that's due to the fact the Oilers have never been wealthy enough in prospect depth to be in a position to offer an Erik Brannstrom, or Josh Norris, or Vitali Abramov headlined package, because our blue-chip prospects have always been fast tracked to the NHL roster, immediately starting that ticking clock and inevitably diminishing their perceived value.

The problem with your example is that you're dealing an asset who is much more likely to be an impact player than longer shot prospects like Foudy and Bemstrom. With Wennberg, you're taking on a bad contract of a player who seems like another Ryan Strome but in this case, a Ryan Strome who comes with a 5M cap hit for the next 4 years.

If you're trading 1st overall, you need to get prime value back, it needs to be a trade where the other team overpays big time. A couple of good prospects and an average NHL player isn't nearly enough to warrant giving up that golden asset even with Lucic attached. There are other ways to fill out the depth in the organization but there are no other ways to get an elite player.
This is the problem with dealing #1 overall. Teams aren't going to give you what it would take to pry it from your hands. You only deal this golden asset if it's a no brainer trade and how often do teams offer up no brainer deals (teams that aren't run by Chiarelli).

I'm not dismissing the fact that the asset we're moving is one of significant value. A 1st overall is pretty much guaranteed to be a player of immense talent. And there is a significant amount of risk involved. It's not a trade that you make in an hour, that's for damn certain, which is my problem with my example.

You literally have to pour over every aspect of the trade. You have to look at the player you're giving up and you have to look at the pessimistic, realistic and optimistic possibilities of what this player could become in your possession. You have to look at the opportunity he's going to see and compare to the kind of production you could expect from someone who is not a 1st overall draft pick being given the same opportunities. It would be a difficult decision.

I'm going to give up on defending that particular example, because it's really only being used as a vehicle to describe the kind of return I'm getting at. But I do think it's important to note that the idea of overpayment is something you probably have to step back on. You won't be getting the better asset in the deal--and established productive players aren't something that are likely to be part of a larger return. That goes back to identifying the kind of NHL player Jack Hughes is more than likely going to trend towards.

Also, this trade doesn't alleviate much salary. You save 1M over the next 4 years with the Lucic/Wennberg swap and get minimal cap savings with the difference between the 2 prospect salaries and the $3.75M of Hughes.

I will touch on this though simply because I feel that flipping Lucic for Wennberg would be a massive win.

He's a big bodied skater who moves well and has a ton of skill with the puck. Contributes on the special teams and is reliable defensively. I believe his struggles stem from opponents keying onto his pass-first mentality. At 24, I think he's a player who is going to pay dividends for the team that has the patience to work with him. He was essentially a 60 point player at 22. There's still a lot to like there.

 

[belair]

He would be the worst skater in the nhl probably

He doesn't even skate at an AHL level yet. It's ugly.

As mentioned before, he's in the Cameron Hebig range of NHL likelihood. Not surprising he settled on an AHL deal.

 

[Heavy Dee]

Yeah I don’t give a **** about wishful thinking from the Toronto media.

Because you don't give a shit doesn't mean it isn't there.

 

[Macblender]

If we moved out Russell and Benning would that give us enough cap room to use our 1st for Ehlers and then make a trade for Miller. That would be two nice additions in our top 6

Yeah if you look on the last page I did this but went for Myers to keep the D in somewhat manageable condition if you lose Russell and Benning. Otherwise you are likely asking Jones + one of Bouchard or Bear to step in next year off the bat.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Because you don't give a **** doesn't mean it isn't there.

Lol edit : I should clarify. Are you suggesting that what the Toronto media says is speaking the truth?

 

[Heavy Dee]

Lol it isn’t there...

Go to the rights holders website fan boy

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Go to the rights holders website fan boy

God you are just the worst.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Really? Did he say anything juicy?

Didn't talk on air. Called their individual phones. Bob picked up and left Spector to talk on air and Nicholson let it ring out.

 

[Heavy Dee]

God you are just the worst.

Nah. I just don't take well to punks like you who drive by smear and have been here all of 4 months .

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Nah. I just don't take well to punks like you who drive by smear and have been here all of 4 months .

Ohhh first my username now my lack of time on an online forum? You really know where it hurts. Punk? You are the one who posts like a teenager who had their phone taken away.

 

[belair]

But what do you envision those three first round picks turning into in the next two years? Just being the better prospects on a team isn't enough, it's still a massive gamble. That was Lynch and Woywitka for us once upon a time, and it didn't work out well for St. Louis.

I envision those prospects as assets, not unlike what Woywitka and Lynch were for us at one point in time. Something that hasn't changed since that trade has been made is that cheap, emerging young players are generally what teams look for as the main pieces in trade returns for the big ticket assets that come available on the open market.

As I just mentioned, the problem with the Edmonton Oilers has pretty much always been that lack of those valuable assets organizationally.

Pulled it out of my arse and I'm sure its in no way accurate. I'm curious on your thoughts there though. Lets say you have a pool of 40 blue chip prospects right now, not the best 40 in the league, mind you, but a random sampling; how many of those do you see being legitimate NHL stars? You would say significantly more than 10...?

It's a pretty obscure question. If you're assuming that the goal is to replace that first pick's upside with the combined upsides of the assets returned one developed, you're probably not going to be overwhelmed with the end result. But that isn't the motive of the trade.

As a similarly obscure question, what's the difference between a 60 point output from a 1st overall draft pick and a 60 point output from a UFA signing if they both relatively see the same opportunity?

The wow factor of 1st overall pick is in the hype of the absolute highest point that player's potential is at. The likelihood of them hitting that maximum potential--specifically in the immediate short-term--is something that a team in our position needs to be weary of.

I don't agree but even if true, I'm not sure how this would play into a decision? If we avoid a consensus #1 is because we think we're going to ruin him...yikes...just fold the team.

Referencing that previous point, it has nothing to do with 'ruining' the asset. It has to do with not maximizing the likelihood that player is going to see his absolute highest potential. Unless you're hitching him to Connor McDavid, that player won't be getting the best possible opportunities. And if you did, wouldn't that be a complete waste of another 1st overall pick?

I'll be honest, I've only read about 2% of this thread and I might be off. But I'm getting the impression you follow prospects with some interest, are not a fan of Hughes, and probably have a handful of guys that you are high on and who you're thinking are classic examples of guys without the "#1 overall" luster who could be had?

You have to know that even the pro scouts have disagreements all the time, where one sees high bust potential in a guy ranked #3, and sure fire elite in someone ranked mid/late 1st. The #1 is almost always agreed upon by the vast majority and thus its the safest bet, by a lot.

It's not a dislike for him at all. It's a realistic look at the kind of player you're getting with that pick and forecasting the kind of opportunity your organization will give him. I described the idea pretty thoroughly in my last post.

Regarding Hughes not doing well because of skillset/linemates/opportunities; it's a go-nowhere argument when you think as little of him as you do, but I disagree. IMO he'd play with one (or two) of McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH and he's either getting prime minutes with the best in the world, and at worst he's playing with at least one very good linemate and getting secondary matchups. That's a much better situation for development than to start off in the NHL carrying a top line.

I get that you're not big on Hughes but with an asset like this you have to play the odds, and rarely does a 1st overall forward not turn into an NHL superstar. Since 2000, only 3/14 #1's are guys you can't say that about. One is Hischier who was a 2017 pick and isn't really fair to include, another is Nuge who while maybe not a 'superstar' is a definite star/impact player, and the last is Yak.

So a 92% chance the player is at least a Star level guy, 85% he's a Superstar. I don't think anyone is saying 'take Hughes no matter what'; just that it would have to be a heck of an deal to pass on those odds.

Not really worth addressing any of this because it's not about trashing on Jack Hughes. The idea is more about the the asset than the actual player. Though I will just point out that the random figures you're pulling out of your ass do nothing to help your point. Honestly if Jack Hughes is such a certainty to be a superstar, why have we only been blessed by one true superstar in four cracks at the 1st overall pick?

 

[backhandsauce]

McDavid ain’t leaving. He just built a beautiful home.

 

[Heavy Dee]

Ohhh first my username now my lack of time on an online forum? You really know where it hurts. Punk? You are the one who posts like a teenager who had their phone taken away.

500 posts per month ? Get a life kid. Go ahead and get the last word because I know you will.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

500 posts per month ? Get a life kid. Go ahead and get the last word because I know you will.

Now my post count! Ouch! Bye.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Didn't talk on air. Called their individual phones. Bob picked up and left Spector to talk on air and Nicholson let it ring out.

Interesting. Thanks!

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Deny if u want but they are out there true or Not

Theres a difference between Rumors and Speculation.