Blue Jays Discussion: Roy Halladay elected to 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame class

[BertCorbeau]

Can't believe Machado and Harper are still FA's (among some others).

MLB's free agent market is screwy

 

[The Nemesis]

Can't believe Machado and Harper are still FA's (among some others).

MLB's free agent market is screwy

Teams are realizing the usual folly of super expensive, super lengthy contracts that the guys will never live up.

Or, if you're the paranoid, militant pro-player type: "ehrmagerd, collusion!"

 

[canucksfan]

BA top prospects by position released the OF list no Jays made it apparently.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Teams are realizing the usual folly of super expensive, super lengthy contracts that the guys will never live up.

Or, if you're the paranoid, militant pro-player type: "ehrmagerd, collusion!"

Analytics allows for better valuation of projected performance in terms of actual dollars so teams are behaving less stupidly.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Report: 8 teams checking in on Harper - TSN.ca

While the Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals and Chicago White Sox are seen as the four “active” suitors for free agent Bryce Harper, four other teams are still checking in on him according to Jon Heyman of Fancred Sports.

Heyman adds that it’s likely a few of the teams in contact with the Harper camp are looking at a shorter-term deal, which Harper is reportedly uninterested in. While his exact contract demands remain unknown, it is widely believed he is looking for something in the neighbourhood of Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325 million deal signed with the Miami Marlins in 2014.

Despite the way the market has unfolded this winter or the growing list of teams inquiring, the Phillies still remain confident they will land one of Harper or Manny Machado. Phillies owner John Middleton said in November that the club was prepared to spend “stupid money” this off-season. So far, the club has brought in David Robertson, Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura.

 

[Eyedea]

Teams are realizing the usual folly of super expensive, super lengthy contracts that the guys will never live up.

Or, if you're the paranoid, militant pro-player type: "ehrmagerd, collusion!"

But those super expensive, super lengthy contracts that guys never live up to are always due to the fact that they're exiting their prime when signed. You can easily argue that you'll get 4 prime years at the very least with Harper and Machado.

So yeah, chalk this up to owners colluding.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

But those super expensive, super lengthy contracts that guys never live up to are always due to the fact that they're exiting their prime when signed. You can easily argue that you'll get 4 prime years at the very least with Harper and Machado.

So yeah, chalk this up to owners colluding.

And six non prime! Harper has had one monster season, one! If nats offered 300 hes dumb for not taking it! I have ZERO interest in him even at four years manny on the other hand id do four years easy, its been fun watçhing these guys take it, like ive said the arb guys need to figure out how to get paid sooner, these fa deals are done, team control for seven years when guys come up in mid twenties is crazy, the young guys need to sell the old down the river and get smart, the agents will

 

[Eyedea]

And six non prime! Harper has had one monster season, one! If nats offered 300 hes dumb for not taking it! I have ZERO interest in him even at four years manny on the other hand id do four years easy, its been fun watçhing these guys take it, like ive said the arb guys need to figure out how to get paid sooner, these fa deals are done, team control for seven years when guys come up in mid twenties is crazy, the young guys need to sell the old down the river and get smart, the agents will

His rookie year was outstanding for a 20 year old, and his 2013 and 2017 seasons were at 6+ fWAR paces as well. His 2018 was also still a solid offensive year, and I wouldn't consider him to be a -10+ runs defensively moving forward.

 

[theaub]

His last three seasons average him to about $30M per year if you use the $8M/WAR rate, and as always that rate should be higher when it applies to players who can consistently bring you 3+ WAR.

That being said, I fully agree with the sentiment that its the arbitration guys getting screwed, not the FA's. MLB's arbitration system is just so broken.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

His last three seasons average him to about $30M per year if you use the $8M/WAR rate, and as always that rate should be higher when it applies to players who can consistently bring you 3+ WAR.

That being said, I fully agree with the sentiment that its the arbitration guys getting screwed, not the FA's. MLB's arbitration system is just so broken.

They need a cap and a floor.

 

[The Nemesis]

But those super expensive, super lengthy contracts that guys never live up to are always due to the fact that they're exiting their prime when signed. You can easily argue that you'll get 4 prime years at the very least with Harper and Machado.

So yeah, chalk this up to owners colluding.

It's almost certainly not actual collusion. Real, proper collusion would require the teams to get together and actively make an agreement specifically to screw players over and suppress salaries. It would require cooperation between clubs that I can't recall them ever actually showing before on any issue, let alone something so inexorably tied to competitiveness like the signing of free agents. Collusion also requires what you could probably categorize as malicious intent to defraud. They would have to make this pact to stifle salaries through not signing free agents with the expressed purpose of sacrificing Harper and Machado on the altar of cost control to achieve that goal. What's happening is more like the NHL and why you don't see RFA offer sheets: the various clubs all come to the same conclusion that the prudent decision is to not act and put themselves in a bad spot. They realize that they can wait out the highest end of Harper an Machado's demands and try and scoop them up at a more reasonable price. It may have the same end result as actual collusion, but it's much more tacit in its employ. Because all it would take is one club cracking, going rogue, and offering up a full value contract to the guy while everyone else sits on their hands to wreck the"plan". No team would be stupid enough to enter into an agreement with its competitors where that was a real possibility when there's a well-established history of some team always overpaying for someone in free agency in almost every off-season.

 

[Eyedea]

I don’t know. At this point I fully expect the Softbank Hawks to swoop in and snag both of them.

 

[The Nemesis]

I don’t know. At this point I fully expect the Softbank Hawks to swoop in and snag both of them.

Buck would enjoy that. It always makes his day when he can mention Fukuoka

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Anthrax442]

Oh yaeh, he has ridiculous demands and then when the teams don't bite, it's a collusion.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Eyedea]

Oh yaeh, he has ridiculous demands and then when the teams don't bite, it's a collusion.

You’re lucky Trout’s a nice guy otherwise I’d hope his demands would be 500m when he’s a free agent.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

You’re lucky Trout’s a nice guy otherwise I’d hope his demands would be 500m when he’s a free agent.

I dont even think Trout would get a ten year deal right now. Owners are not doing it.

 

[Anthrax442]

I dont even think Trout would get a ten year deal right now. Owners are not doing it.

I dont blame them. Anything over 5 years is dumb

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I dont even think Trout would get a ten year deal right now. Owners are not doing it.

Trout is definitely not getting 10 years. He'll be 29 in his walk year. That takes him to age 39 at whatever astronomical figure he commands.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

Anything over five is dumb, we just watched the phillies eat howard for five years too long, texira for ever and now miggy who id argue was the only one worth it. Oh yeah poo holes as well. Its crazy.

 

[phillipmike]

Sounds like some rule changes could be coming (just talks now);

-NL DH for the 2019, long overdue -love it
-26 man roster, love it
-28 man roster limit in September, love it
-pitchers must face a minimum of 3 batter, don’t like it but if we can get the first 3 I will accept this one

Finally baseball making some positive strides

 

[Discoverer]

Anything over five is dumb, we just watched the phillies eat howard for five years too long, texira for ever and now miggy who id argue was the only one worth it. Oh yeah poo holes as well. Its crazy.

Yeah, those guys were also 29+ when they signed. Harper and Machado are 26.

Teixeira signed for his age 29-36 seasons and was worth 20.5 bWAR. Make that 26-33 instead and he would have been worth 33.1 bWAR.
Howard signed for his age 30-36 seasons and was worth (lol) -2.1 bWAR. Make that 26-32 instead and he would have been worth 15.0 bWAR.
Pujols has only been worth 13.3 bWAR so far, and that's likely to go down in the last three years of his contract. But a ten-year deal starting at 26 nets you 62.3 bWAR.
Cabrera's at 4.5 bWAR in the first three years with five still to go. It's ugly. But from 26-33 he was worth 48.7 bWAR.

The issue isn't that teams signed players to long-term contracts, it's that they signed them to long-term contracts that paid significant amounts of money for the tail end of their prime and a whole bunch of decline years.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

Yeah, those guys were also 29+ when they signed. Harper and Machado are 26.

Teixeira signed for his age 29-36 seasons and was worth 20.5 bWAR. Make that 26-33 instead and he would have been worth 33.1 bWAR.
Howard signed for his age 30-36 seasons and was worth (lol) -2.1 bWAR. Make that 26-32 instead and he would have been worth 15.0 bWAR.
Pujols has only been worth 13.3 bWAR so far, and that's likely to go down in the last three years of his contract. But a ten-year deal starting at 26 nets you 62.3 bWAR.
Cabrera's at 4.5 bWAR in the first three years with five still to go. It's ugly. But from 26-33 he was worth 48.7 bWAR.

The issue isn't that teams signed players to long-term contracts, it's that they signed them to long-term contracts that paid significant amounts of money for the tail end of their prime and a whole bunch of decline years.

So now that they have figured it out they are more than happy to f*** the renewal and arb guys by first holding them down until a later age and then through arb. I think they were doing the whole ''nothing to see here la la la'' and the longorias are doing their bidding by keeping the attention on the older FA guys instead of saying wait a min here.

The reason why harper and machado are not signed is teams want to go to age 31 or 32, not 35 plus. I think the Donaldson contract is perfect. Good for him and ATL. If he murks 19 he can get another 20 mil. If he doesent he got paid

 

[canucksfan]