Prospect Info: Round 5, Pick 137: Noah Cates, LW, Stillwater (MN-HS) -> Omaha (USHL) -> UM-Duluth

[Hexxxy]

Feet stuck in concrete. Cates fatal flaw. Just can't get going.

 

[VladDrag]

He is a very good defensive forward and play-driver... hopefully he can stick at C as if he does he has more value both to the team and league wide.

He is having a better year than the raw numbers suggest.

He's having the exact same year as last year, if not better. But, because he's not playing with TK and Farabee, he's not scoring as much. His player cards at EH are basically identical from last year to this year, his sG at Hockey Viz is actually better this year than last.

He's a VERY GOOD bottom 6 player who makes his team better when he's on the ice. He just has no real offensive pop to his game. I think he could score more as a LW with a middle 6 center. For example something like Cates-Frost-Brink would be a very good spot for Cates. I think that maximizes his abilities the best. He 'makes up' the defense that Brink gives up, and Brink 'makes up' the offense Cates lacks. Frost is the guy who can do both pretty well.

 

[Fire Tortorella]

He's having the exact same year as last year, if not better. But, because he's not playing with TK and Farabee, he's not scoring as much. His player cards at EH are basically identical from last year to this year, his sG at Hockey Viz is actually better this year than last.

He's a VERY GOOD bottom 6 player who makes his team better when he's on the ice. He just has no real offensive pop to his game. I think he could score more as a LW with a middle 6 center. For example something like Cates-Frost-Brink would be a very good spot for Cates. I think that maximizes his abilities the best. He 'makes up' the defense that Brink gives up, and Brink 'makes up' the offense Cates lacks. Frost is the guy who can do both pretty well.

Better version of Michael Raffl? A bottom 6 winger you can throw in a higher line as a temp replacement and not miss too much of a beat but if he's placed there permanently you're going to be wanting more.

 

[VladDrag]

Better version of Michael Raffl? A bottom 6 winger you can throw in a higher line as a temp replacement and not miss too much of a beat but if he's placed there permanently you're going to be wanting more.

Decent comparison. I think Raffl was more offensively inclined while Cates is much better in puck control/tilting the ice.

 

[BritainStix]

Yes.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

We have a 145 game sample that suggests Cates isn’t very good offensively. He might be a second year player (at least full time) but he’s 25 years old. So he’s currently in his athletic prime. So these years are likely about as good it gets in terms of a multiple year window of play.

Now he is good defensively & he does at least drive play which on top of a bottom six/No PP time usage you can work with that & get value out of him.

Now he’s cheap for now & provides surplus value. I’d imagine his next contract is likely cheap again assuming it’s short term. But beyond that I personally wouldn’t really set expectations on his shelf life here because I just don’t believe in marrying yourself to bottom of the lineup players. Beyond his next contract you’re talking UFA years on the downside of the age curve.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I think most people are forgetting that Cates was injured for a big chunk of the season, and still hasn't really got back into his groove on the ice. There have been flashes of his defensive ability recently though, so here's to hoping that he's finally getting 100% healthy. He's going to be a really valuable peice over the next 4-5 years.

For every Tippet, we need a Cates.

This is the exact kind of thinking that has produced the Flyers teams of the last decade.

 

[BritainStix]

We have a 145 game sample that suggests Cates isn’t very good offensively. He might be a second year player (at least full time) but he’s 25 years old. So he’s currently in his athletic prime. So these years are likely about as good it gets in terms of a multiple year window of play.

Now he is good defensively & he does at least drive play which on top of a bottom six/No PP time usage you can work with that & get value out of him.

Now he’s cheap for now & provides surplus value. I’d imagine his next contract is likely cheap again assuming it’s short term. But beyond that I personally wouldn’t really set expectations on his shelf life here because I just don’t believe in marrying yourself to bottom of the lineup players. Beyond his next contract you’re talking UFA years on the downside of the age curve.

He's everything you would want in a bottom 6 player. Strong defensively, not inept offensively, a play driver and cheap.

 

[Curufinwe]

$2.625m is not cheap for a 13 point 4th liner who played 5:37 at ES last night and is scoring 1.1 ESP/60 this season,

Now $2.1m is cheap for a top 6 center with 38 points scoring 2.02 ESP/60 this season.

 

[BritainStix]

$2.625m is not cheap for a 13 point 4th liner who played 5:37 at ES last night.

Now $2.1m is cheap for a top 6 center with 38 points.

Cates is 25-30 point player who can play every position in the bottom six, Kill penalties, and be a positive factor against the best opposition lines. He's pacing for 17 points, while missing 22 games and not being fully fit for at least another 20 of those games.

2.625 is cheap for that productivity. If he moves back to centre, it's even better.

Why are you comparing a defensive player to Frost? It's apples and oranges.

 

[FLYguy3911]

If we can't compare players on the same team, from the same draft class, who played the same position, we can't compare anybody.

 

[BritainStix]

If we can't compare players on the same team, from the same draft class, who played the same position, we can't compare anybody.

But it's a bit disingenuous when you start comparing salaries. Cates is at the top end of what he can earn realistically. Frost took a cut rate deal to prove himself (and make himself an attractive trade option).

One player is our most talented offensive player, the other is a talented defensive player. You need both.

 

[FLYguy3911]

But it's a bit disingenuous when you start comparing salaries. Cates is at the top end of what he can earn realistically. Frost took a cut rate deal to prove himself (and make himself an attractive trade option).

One player is our most talented offensive player, the other is a talented defensive player. You need both.

How is Cates at the top end of what he can earn and how is Frost taking a cut? Cates is only at the top end of what he can earn if you believe last year was a complete fluke. They thought Cates was better and more valuable than Frost last year. That's why he played more and that's why he got paid more. He got paid 25% more. It's fair to criticize their process and compare subsequent results.

And you realize they are the same age and have the same leverage in RFA, right? They both signed a two year bridge deal and will both have two RFA years remaining when their contracts expire. Both middle six forwards (centers?). Unless Frost is traded, they will continue to be compared for those reasons.

And saying Cates is the 'defensive' forward so he is not a comparable is implying Frost is poor defensively (he is not). Yes it's nice to have forwards who provide defensive value, but middle six forwards need to be able to drive offense and create chances also. They need to be PP options (unless your PP operates like it's the 90s).

 

[BritainStix]

How is Cates at the top end of what he can earn and how is Frost taking a cut? Cates is only at the top end of what he can earn if you believe last year was a complete fluke. They thought Cates was better and more valuable than Frost last year. That's why he played more and that's why he got paid more. He got paid 25% more. It's fair to criticize their process and compare subsequent results.

And you realize they are the same age and have the same leverage in RFA, right? They both signed a two year bridge deal and will both have two RFA years remaining when their contracts expire. Both middle six forwards (centers?). Unless Frost is traded, they will continue to be compared for those reasons.

And saying Cates is the 'defensive' forward so he is not a comparable is implying Frost is poor defensively (he is not). Yes it's nice to have forwards who provide defensive value, but middle six forwards need to be able to drive offense and create chances also. They need to be PP options (unless your PP operates like it's the 90s).

Put Frost in pretty much any other franchise and he's a 60+ point, play driving centre now. He put up a PPG run over a long stretch at the end of last year and was due a longer contract at a much higher rate. So yes, he absolutely took a pay cut for a bridge deal

I reference Cates as a defensive forward because he's particularly blood good defensively while being absolutely limited offensively. Frost is the better player but they will take totally different career paths.

Edit: just looked. Holy shitballs, Cates has a PDO of 92. I've literally never seen a PDO so low. How is this even possible.