Prospect Info: Round 4, Pick 104: Mikhail Vorobyov, C, Tolpar Ufa (MHL --> KHL)

[Alex K]

Could we trade for Kaprizov to bring that sick connection from WJC-20 back together?

 

[1865]

Your reading comprehension is lacking today. I said making the roster half a year to a year later than they should have, not that they weren’t on the team at all. Nice try picking fights though.

Or did you selectively edit out the part about them making a team because you want to pick an internet fight for reasons?

He might be a little annoyed about this constant opinion that we never play the kids. Half of this team is kids and there's no evidence holding them back a little hurts them at all. In fact, it seems to work.

I'm all in favour of the slow-release prospect development. It's going to keep us as a constantly contending team for a decade.

 

[duffy9748]

He might be a little annoyed about this constant opinion that we never play the kids. Half of this team is kids and there's no evidence holding them back a little hurts them at all. In fact, it seems to work.

I'm all in favour of the slow-release prospect development. It's going to keep us as a constantly contending team for a decade.

When you factor in that Provorov, Patrick, Ghost, Konecny, and Sanheim were all brought along differently, it’s probably okay to trust that management/coaching knows how to develop players.

 

[GKJ]

Could we trade for Kaprizov to bring that sick connection from WJC-20 back together?

Probably would only be worth it if you think Kaprizov is a top-line player because it seems that's what he's going to want to be paid to come over.

 

[1865]

When you factor in that Provorov, Patrick, Ghost, Konecny, and Sanheim were all brought along differently, it’s probably okay to trust that management/coaching knows how to develop players.

Yep. They work with all five of them every day, they handled them all differently and all of them are turning out at nearly their best case scenario - so maybe they know exactly what they're doing and don't stick to a rigid singular method for different styles of players.

 

[NicolasAubeKubel]

Probably would only be worth it if you think Kaprizov is a top-line player because it seems that's what he's going to want to be paid to come over.

PPG in the Olympics, WJC, KHL, WC. I’ll take that risk.

 

[Rich Nixon]

I'd like to see him maybe win a faceoff or two, but otherwise I don't think there's an argument against starting him off at 3C.

 

[Appleyard]

I'd like to see him maybe win a faceoff or two, but otherwise I don't think there's an argument against starting him off at 3C.

It will come.

I did a study a few years ago and even the best face-off men off the bat, guys like Bergeron and Pavelski, could not get more than ~49% in their first year.

Most are at 43-46% as a rookie.

And Vorobyev was great in juniors and WJC, and also over 50% in the AHL.

I would guess as a rookie he averages ~46% or thereabouts. And that is fine.

 

[deadhead]

People have to be a bit reasonable with their expectations.

Say Vorobyev wins the 3C job, 50 ES minutes total, Couts 15, Patrick 15, Vorobyev 11, Laughton/Weal/Knight/Lehtera 9.
Vorobyev might get 1-2 more minutes on the PK, so 12-13 minutes a night.
11x82, 900 minutes, 15 - 60 minute periods.
Say he's a 1.5 pp/60 guy, which is high for a rookie 3C, that's about 23 5x5 points.

So reasonable expectations for Vorobyev is about 20-25 points, say 8-15 23 at ES and a couple SH points and maybe an empty net goal.

This is also why I wouldn't lose sleep over the 4C:
9*82 = 740 minutes or 12.3 - 60 minute periods.
So 1.0 pp/60, 12.3 points plus a couple others, 1.2 pp/60 would be 14.8 points, 1.3 pp/60 = 16 points.
In other words, the difference offensively between Lehtera, Weal and Laughton at 4C might be a total of 3-4 points over a season.
Which is why teams often go with the best defender/PK guy.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

People have to be a bit reasonable with their expectations.

Say Vorobyev wins the 3C job, 50 ES minutes total, Couts 15, Patrick 15, Vorobyev 11, Laughton/Weal/Knight/Lehtera 9.
Vorobyev might get 1-2 more minutes on the PK, so 12-13 minutes a night.
11x82, 900 minutes, 15 - 60 minute periods.
Say he's a 1.5 pp/60 guy, which is high for a rookie 3C, that's about 23 5x5 points.

So reasonable expectations for Vorobyev is about 20-25 points, say 8-15 23 at ES and a couple SH points and maybe an empty net goal.

This is also why I wouldn't lose sleep over the 4C:
9*82 = 740 minutes or 12.3 - 60 minute periods.
So 1.0 pp/60, 12.3 points plus a couple others, 1.2 pp/60 would be 14.8 points, 1.3 pp/60 = 16 points.
In other words, the difference offensively between Lehtera, Weal and Laughton at 4C might be a total of 3-4 points over a season.
Which is why teams often go with the best defender/PK guy.

Well, I also think people just have to largely ignore his point totals, or at the very least keep them in the back. We just really want to see him playing like he belongs (which he obviously is showing us he is ready to do so far) and being a positive for us. You know that thing they are using in baseball (and elsewhere) now, WAR? I won't lie and say that I totally understand that ****, but I think about what the Pimp offers us over the alternatives, i.e. the bums and bozos we have had back there the last several years. I am very confident he is going to be a joy to watch in that context.

(I know WAR has been around for a while, but I was hanging with monkeys among the coconuts)

 

[Curufinwe]

With Vorobyev hopefully making the team as a bottom 6 center, it's interesting to look back at Couturier's rookie season (18/19 years old).

Philadelphia Flyers- Face-off stats - 2011 - Puckbase

Giroux - 1,543 faceoffs (53.7%)
Briere - 831 faceoffs (48.9%)
Couturier - 804 faceoffs (47%)
Talbot - 640 faceoffs (44.4%)
Schenn - 436 faceoffs (46.1%)

In the past two years Couturier has improved a lot on the dot, while Schenn is still fairly poor at faceoffs.

Sean Couturier stats - Philadelphia Flyers - Puckbase
Brayden Schenn stats - St. Louis Blues - Puckbase

 

[Rich Nixon]

I'm not too worried about point totals if he makes the team, I could see him potting 30 (10g 20a or so) if he gets 3C assignment. He'll have good enough linemates if he ends up with that role: Hopefully Simmonds to his right but just as likely Konecny, with Lindblom to his left.

Even if Hakstol gets his dumbass way and keeps Konecny down there, it'd be a nice little line: Young, extremely tenacious, pretty mobile, smart, good shots. It'd be a bundle of fun, really, much better than the eyesores of yesteryear.

 

[BritainStix]

I have a sneaking suspicion that Hakstol is going to partner Voro with Voracek and we see him more in a scoring line.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

You know that thing they are using in baseball (and elsewhere) now, WAR?

Try watching the games, nerd. Sheesh.

 

[Curufinwe]

I can't see Vorobyev playing ahead of Patrick.

 

[deadhead]

And they'll limit Vorobyev's minutes as a rookie, at least the first half of the season, and gradually increase his responsibilities.
With Couts and Patrick as your top two centers, you're not going to demand a lot from your 3C out of the chute.

Eventually, as young players come up and get experienced, I can see them doing in two years what Toronto did last year, play all three top lines similar minutes, keeping your top guys fresh for the playoffs.

 

[Tripod]

And they'll limit Vorobyev's minutes as a rookie, at least the first half of the season, and gradually increase his responsibilities.
With Couts and Patrick as your top two centers, you're not going to demand a lot from your 3C out of the chute.

Eventually, as young players come up and get experienced, I can see them doing in two years what Toronto did last year, play all three top lines similar minutes, keeping your top guys fresh for the playoffs.

AKA: Lehtera will play more minutes than him on any given night.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

I have a sneaking suspicion that Hakstol is going to partner Voro with Voracek and we see him more in a scoring line.

And neauter Patrick playing with raffl and Weiss lol. #PeakJeff

 

[BritainStix]

Giroux- Couturier - Konecny
Lindblom - Patrick - Simmonds
JVR - Vorobyev - Voracek
Laughton - Knight - Raffl

Thats one bona fide 1st line and two quality 2nd lines.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Try watching the games, nerd. Sheesh.

 

[Rebels57]

Giroux- Couturier - Konecny
Lindblom - Patrick - Simmonds
JVR - Vorobyev - Voracek
Laughton - Knight - Raffl

Thats one bona fide 1st line and two quality 2nd lines.

Not a fan of that as a 2nd line. Neither Lindblom or Simmonds are very good at driving play and gaining the offensive zone with possesion.

 

[Curufinwe]

Wait, what? Lindblom's possession numbers were thru the roof.

Philadelphia Flyers- Possession - 2017 - Puckbase

Voracek on the 3rd line is silly, though.

 

[deadhead]

Lindblom - Vorobyev - Simmonds should be a good combo, lack a top sniper, but all three will dig for the puck, should be able to maintain possession and put pressure on goalies. If you want a little more shooting, swap out Laughton for Lindblom at LW. But Lindblom will go get the puck and was a top scorer in the SHL, so he knows how to get a puck past a goaltender.

If Vorobyev is for real, this should be an upgrade from last year's 3rd line.
They were rolling Weal - Filppula - Simmonds out there toward the end.

 

[Rebels57]

Wait, what? Lindblom's possession numbers were thru the roof.

Philadelphia Flyers- Possession - 2017 - Puckbase

Voracek on the 3rd line is silly, though.

Im aware Lindblom had a very good CF%. What I meant was that neither he nor Lindblom are they type of wingers particularly strong at skating the puck from the dzone to the ozone while keeping possesion. They both lean more on dump and chase. Lindbloms CF% was so strong for a few different reasons. Playing with Jake and Nolan plus being so damn good on the cycle and along the walls in the ozone would be the primary reasons IMO.

 

[deadhead]

Yeah, but it's the 3rd line, it's not like the 3rd line last year was great at keeping possession, at least this group has a better chance of keeping the puck in the O-zone and making something good happen.