Series Discussion: Round 1 (Caps vs Isles) 2015 Playoffs

[Calicaps]

IMO, in today's NHL, physicality beats speed. Speed is easier to neutralize... not easy, but easier. Getting clobbered every shift hurts no matter what you do and it has a cumulative effect over the course of a series.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

What are you talking about?

It was a simple point. Expert opinions are great when they fit your narrative. Instead of relying on them as gospel when they fit your narrative, doesn't it make sense to look back and see if they have any sort of predictive value?

TLDR:

Even unnamed Eastern Conference executives can be wrong.

It wasn't a point at all. Every single expert in that link got the SJ-COL series correct. The same expert that got the Caps series wrong. Again, it's a worthless piece of evidence.

Personally, I think having a "narrative" that's supported by expert opinions seems more rational and logical than one that's supported by....well, nothing yet cited.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Seriously? That's pretty much exactly what I've been saying.

Edit: What do you expect him to say? This is hockey speak 101. They're not going to provide any bulletin board material for the other team.

No, you've been saying that the Caps physicality won't matter. Okposo clearly thinks it will.

Edit: If the physicality wasn't an issue, I'd expect him to say something about structure, defensive positioning, etc.

 

[HunterSThompson]

Let's see if this is any clearer

Physicality = good
Caps' physicality = limited impact outside of a few players
Value of speed > 0

So really all you're saying is that the Caps brand of physicality is kind of a mirage based on the physicality of a few and is therefore more or less overrated.

 

[Stewie G]

So really all you're saying is that the Caps brand of physicality is kind of a mirage based on the physicality of a few and is therefore more or less overrated.

Not a mirage, as much as people attributing the physicality of a few to the entire team. The Kings and Bruins had the kind of physicality up and down their lineups. Every line came at you and finished their checks with authority.

The Caps have a few players like that, but let's not pretend like the Isles are going to be scared to dump the puck in Alzner's corner for fear of being "clobbered" or are playing hot potato with the puck with Laich bearing down on them.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

The repeated mentions of a certain player make it quite clear where this bitter narrative is coming from.

 

[BobRouse]

Not a mirage, as much as people attributing the physicality of a few to the entire team. The Kings and Bruins had the kind of physicality up and down their lineups. Every line came at you and finished their checks with authority.

The Caps have a few players like that, but let's not pretend like the Isles are going to be scared to dump the puck in Alzner's corner for fear of being "clobbered" or are playing hot potato with the puck with Laich bearing down on them.

The whole lineup is hitting.

Why do you think everyone and their mom are saying the Caps are playing a "heavy" brand of hockey and that they are "built for the playoffs"?

That doesn't happen if you only have a couple guys that hit. EVERYONE has to be finishing their checks. Alzner is. MJ is. To a man they are.

Some guys hit super hard. Those are easy to recognize. You've recognized that. But all the other hits you ignore.

But they are REAL. NHL people realize that. The players on opposing teams realize that. The Caps realize that. Its not something manufactured.

 

[HunterSThompson]

Not a mirage, as much as people attributing the physicality of a few to the entire team. The Kings and Bruins had the kind of physicality up and down their lineups. Every line came at you and finished their checks with authority.

The Caps have a few players like that, but let's not pretend like the Isles are going to be scared to dump the puck in Alzner's corner for fear of being "clobbered" or are playing hot potato with the puck with Laich bearing down on them.

I agree to some extent about the fear aspect. The thing that people have been saying is that speed's value is lessened by physicality, not necessarily about the fear, but the toll on the bodies. Starting and stopping is tough on the legs, and when someone gets hit, whether a small hit or a large one, that player has to get going again. This means less energy in the third or OT and less energy in games 5, 6, and 7. Less energy means less speed, which is what the Isles rely on.

 

[Stewie G]

The repeated mentions of a certain player make it quite clear where this bitter narrative is coming from.

Fine, replace Laich with Mojo if you can't get see past that to my overall point. I haven't talked about Laich in a long time, for reasons just like this. Let it go, man. The cat is out of the bag on Laich.

 

[Stewie G]

The whole lineup is hitting.

Why do you think everyone and their mom are saying the Caps are playing a "heavy" brand of hockey and that they are "built for the playoffs"?

That doesn't happen if you only have a couple guys that hit. EVERYONE has to be finishing their checks. Alzner is. MJ is. To a man they are.

Some guys hit super hard. Those are easy to recognize. You've recognized that. But all the other hits you ignore.

But they are REAL. NHL people realize that. The players on opposing teams realize that. The Caps realize that. Its not something manufactured.

I've got a math question for you.

The impact of Marcus Johansson (see NBTW) finishing a check is _____ the impact of Tom Wilson finishing a check.
a) greater than
b) equal to
c) less than

 

[maybam]

I could be mistaken, but I seem to recall a stat floating around that showed no correlation between more hitting and winning.
edit
Found the article http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-p...g-in-the-nhl---puck-momalytics-001817973.html

 

[BobRouse]

I've got a math question for you.

The impact of Marcus Johansson (see NBTW) finishing a check is _____ the impact of Tom Wilson finishing a check.
a) greater than
b) equal to
c) less than

If we had Scott Stevens on the team would it diminish the value of Tom Wilson delivering a hit?

This is a stupid argument. Sure Wilson and Ovechkin hit harder than MJ. But you act like the rest of the hits simply don't count which couldn't be further from the truth.

Every single time any player finishes his check it is important. You are saying the exact opposite of this. You are saying only big highlight reel hits are of value.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I can't fathom how a fan of the Washington Capitals doesn't see that structure, physicality, and solid team defense >>>> speed and free flowing offense in the postseason. Truly mind boggling.

The Islanders this year are a poor man's version of old Washington teams. Low on playoff experience, low on defensive depth, no semblance of structure, no ability to protect a lead, and high in excitement and offense.

 

[NoLookPass]

It is truly amazing, the NHL community as a whole all year has been saying the Capitals play a physical high hitting style. Then you come to these forums ands "experts" say the team doesn't even hit. I don't get it.

This team hits and they are big. I think it was two weeks ago I saw that the Capitals have 16 or 17 skaters on the starting roster above the average size player in the NHL.

The Caps remind me of the LA kings in the past, play playoff hockey all year and just keep rolling through the playoffs. Lets see if we can get the same outcome.

 

[Stewie G]

It is truly amazing, the NHL community as a whole all year has been saying the Capitals play a physical high hitting style. Then you come to these forums ands "experts" say the team doesn't even hit. I don't get it.

This team hits and they are big. I think it was two weeks ago I saw that the Capitals have 16 or 17 skaters on the starting roster above the average size player in the NHL.

The Caps remind me of the LA kings in the past, play playoff hockey all year and just keep rolling through the playoffs. Lets see if we can get the same outcome.

Find me a post I made that said that the Caps don't hit.

Again, there are shades of gray people. Why is that so difficult to understand? Not all hits are created equal. I'd much rather take 10 individual hits from Mojo throughout a game than 2 or 3 from Ovie or Wilson.

 

[Blades of Steel]

At least we didn't have Umberger say we don't play the right way this year, that's a start right?

 

[NoLookPass]

Find me a post I made that said that the Caps don't hit.

Again, there are shades of gray people. Why is that so difficult to understand? Not all hits are created equal. I'd much rather take 10 individual hits from Mojo throughout a game than 2 or 3 from Ovie or Wilson.

Agreed, Mojo isn't much of a truck but the fact that he is still finishing his check is important. There is not one person on the team that is not finishing checks. There isn't a team in the league (playoffs) that is putting 12 Forwards on the ice that can lay down huge hits every shift.

You bring up Alzner, yea he's not a physical monster but look at the other 5.
Carlson
Orpik
Niskanen
Green
Gleason.

I think its ok that Alzner is the least physical of this bunch.

 

[g00n]

Good lord, I can't leave you guys alone for 10 minutes. Cleaned up a lot of junk so don't start it back up. Keep it on topic and civil.

As for the hits question, not all hits are created equal. Random banging may not equate to winning over an entire season but strategic hitting and/or wearing the opponent down can make a difference in a few games or over the course of a series.

With the Caps it can be complicated. They have their A-Game and their ZZZ-Game, in general. Sometimes that A-Game is pretty physical and just about everyone on the team brings a significant amount of real hitting....even the "whipping boys". But sometimes the ZZZ-Game shows up and the hitting is kind of "meh", except for your usual bangers like Ovie, Wilson, Orpik, etc.

So both sides are right in this debate, in some way. Now everybody hug.

 

[Langway]

I can't fathom how a fan of the Washington Capitals doesn't see that structure, physicality, and solid team defense >>>> speed and free flowing offense in the postseason. Truly mind boggling.

I think that really depends on the degree of tenacity, balance and overall cohesion of the speedy attacking team. Likewise the degree of positional discipline and two-way play of the "defensive" team. It's a bit of a forced contrast. "Structure" without pace and crispness is not necessarily too effective come playoff time or else we'd see more darkhorse park the bus performances on teams riding hot goalies to 1-0, 2-1 wins.

Skill remains tremendously important. The Kings, while heavy, also had players like Williams, Gaborik and Carter with subtle skill. They were also a dominant possession team, something the Islanders have resembled more than Washington.

The Islanders this year are a poor man's version of old Washington teams. Low on playoff experience, low on defensive depth, no semblance of structure, no ability to protect a lead, and high in excitement and offense.

Except the Islanders have a legit top D pair, something the BB Caps never had. It's also hard to truly have no semblance of structure when you're a top possession team. Clearly they do something right from a system standpoint, at least with the puck. I have no idea whether we'll see the best of the Islanders or their late-season slump but I would expect them to at least be at their best offensively. It was evident in the playoffs last year that their forward group has some elevation in their game.

I don't think this series is really about Washington's grit vs. NYI's skill but the exact opposite and who manages to find that balance in all areas of the game. Work ethic and physicality are important but so are areas like efficiency, creativity and decision-making. The Caps have an experience advantage across the board but it's only as good as them acting like it.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Langway, a few things:

1. Execution is everything. You'll never hear me argue otherwise. My point is simple: the Caps are built and have looked like a team that historically has had success in the playoffs than the Isles, especially since the ASG. Whether or not that transfers to the postseason is a different story.

2. The Kings had talent to go along with their structure, but so do the Caps. I'd argue the Kings played with more structure and tenacity, but the Caps are definitely more talented offensively than those Kings teams.

3. Who is the Isles top pair? Hamonic is their best defenseman and he's injured. Boychuk and Leddy were second and third pairing guys on Cup winning teams. The rest of the Isles defensive corps are JAGs.

4. The Capitals had better possession numbers in 2009-10 than the Isles do today. The Isles are a fast, talented team that can be lethal on the rush. Their inability to hold leads, propensity to give up late goals, and their overall skid since really Jan/Feb prove that something isn't right regardless of their possession metrics.

The Isles are dangerous, no doubt. I just think they have far more question marks than the Caps right now. I think the Caps have a better chance dictating play and enforcing their will more so than the Isles do this series. But as always, it'll come down to execution.

 

[Langway]

2. I beg to differ on the relative skill level between the Kings and Caps. Washington's wingers outside of Ovechkin aren't all that good at creating their own chances. It's a hard-working bunch for the most part but I don't really trust their ability to play fast and cohesive enough.

3. NYI's top pair is Leddy/Boychuk and they're easily their best defensemen. As a pair they put up some of the best possession stats in the league. Hamonic anchors the second pair when healthy, lately largely with Strait for some strange reason. To me, ideally, from a strategic standpoint it's Leddy/Boychuk they should target physically while they actually try to play hockey against the rest. Not sure this bottom six can do that at a high enough level beyond sheer work ethic. Nonetheless, against a weaker blueline (Hamonic or not) I'm not sure hit everything is the right way to go. Against the Rangers that makes more sense. Generally the Caps at their best do flood the offensive zone with pinching D and a sustained forecheck but I think they need to match NYI's transition game in a controlled manner rather than just trying to neutralize theirs.

4. That's one season. Still, if one were to place primary importance on possession numbers a TBL/NYI ECF would be the predicted result. The game is more complicated than that but it's an area that favors the Islanders.

The Caps ought to have the edge in goal, experience, overall D depth and maybe coaching. Beyond those areas it should be a really competitive series. The Caps need to seize the early momentum if they really do want to make it seem like there's a carry-over effect from NYI's late season play.

 

[sycamore]

BTW, did you see that ESPN has the Caps ranked at #6 for the final rankings of the season? Thats probably the highest they've been all year. Hope the players see that, should add to their confidence:

http://espn.go.com/nhl/powerrankings/_/season/2015/week/27

 

[Mothra]

I can't fathom how a fan of the Washington Capitals doesn't see that structure, physicality, and solid team defense >>>> speed and free flowing offense in the postseason. Truly mind boggling.

The Islanders this year are a poor man's version of old Washington teams. Low on playoff experience, low on defensive depth, no semblance of structure, no ability to protect a lead, and high in excitement and offense.

I think its fair to point out that since the "Save the Caps" campaign in the early 80's, "structure, physicality, and solid team defense" can be used to describe most of the Caps teams iced. With that, they have advanced to the 3rd round twice...

all talk of "this >>>>> that" is so funny to me. You need all of it, and then a little more. Fast teams beat physical teams all the time....physical teams beat fast teams all the time....what are you guys talking about?

 

[txpd]

I think its fair to point out that since the "Save the Caps" campaign in the early 80's, "structure, physicality, and solid team defense" can be used to describe most of the Caps teams iced. With that, they have advanced to the 3rd round twice...

all talk of "this >>>>> that" is so funny to me. You need all of it, and then a little more. Fast teams beat physical teams all the time....physical teams beat fast teams all the time....what are you guys talking about?

so, whats your take? the outlook for round one is?

 

[Portable Mink]

dont **** the bed caps and you will win in 5.

i think the little plays that MoJo is getting really great at could be a factor. their defense is iffy and little 1-2 passes create flatfootedness and space.

i really liked the Brouwer Kuzy Mojo line for this factor.