Speculation: Roster Turn Over

[Invictus12]

Holland is severely risk adverse. He is scared to death of it. That's why he's willing to overpay AA. That's why he's willing to re-sign players that have been here before. That's why he won't let the team start with 3 rookies in the lineup. He'd rather have a mediocre team with vets an retreads than risk a bad team with youth, even if it means making the team better in the long term.

Pulkkinen, Jurco... Again, there are a whole bunch of people that oversee these players day in and day out.

 

[Invictus12]

Exactly. We have 5 veteran defensemen and yet holland goes out and gets a 6th. Daley can provide a lot that green can. He played some pp time with Pittsburgh I believe. Between sulak cholo and hronek I want to see 2 of them to start the season, with hicketts our 7th d. That is a completely valid way of integrating youth for a bottom team like we are right now imo.

And if they fall flat on their face???

 

[shanman]

And if they fall flat on their face???

Then they have equaled what our "veteran" defense did last year.

 

[Shaman464]

Pulkkinen, Jurco... Again, there are a whole bunch of people that oversee these players day in and day out.

And those people are pretty shitty at their jobs apparently because they weren't able to assess and manage their assets. Also if you think Zadina, Cholo, Hronek and Ras are in the same ballpark as Jurco and Pulkks then this team is in much worse shape than any of us imagined.

 

[Invictus12]

And those people are pretty ****ty at their jobs apparently because they weren't able to assess and manage their assets. Also if you think Zadina, Cholo, Hronek and Ras are in the same ballpark as Jurco and Pulkks then this team is in much worse shape than any of us imagined.

No I think time will tell. I'd say it very reasonable to speculate that our coaching staff (responsibility does fall on Holland in such a case) failed to address the problems that kept these guys from taking steps forward. It also depends on the individual and the situation. Hell, for all I know, Jurco met a girl and his head wasn't on the ice anymore... How do you evaluate and address something like that exactly? You simply can't. Nor can you foresee it or plan for it. Lets not pretend that Pulkkinen wasn't touted VERY HIGHLY on here though. For good reason too but, that's how these things go.

 

[FunkyColdZadina]

Well alot of things have to come together, sure. Just on the surface of things, most here seem to want to ship Nyquist away but at the same time, he's one of the few very capable passers on our team. It really depends on the youngsters. If Larkin continues as he is while and Mantha and AA take a strides similar to Larkin's last season, we probably have a playoff team and our major set back from being a top team is defence. However, it's not just because they take strides but because we have excellent depth on the roster. We have guys who can penalty kill, forecheck effectively etc. If Ras steps up, we have what we've been missing a while and what was our major set back in the last 3 round of playoffs... A guy that can muscle his way towards the net and score while there.

I do agree that the play of Larkin, Mantha, and AA will largely determine our date next season, but I don't see us in the playoffs. Tampa, Toronto and Boston will likely get the divisional spots and the wildcard will likely be Metro teams again. Not trying to be a Debbie-downer or anything, I just see probably 10 Eastern Conference teams stronger than us.

Which is good because we need at least another year of drafting in the top 10 before we can really start to think about being legit contenders.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

we're years and years and years away from contention

for the next 5 years we dont sniff tampa, boston or toronto unless we land mcdavid 2.0(if such a player exists)

then florida and buffalo are likely ahead of us

 

[Henkka]

it sure is

but that ratio changes depending on where you're in your cycle, good teams tend to have more guys in their primes on expensive deals playing important minutes/roles, bad teams tend to have more guys in their early 20's on ELCS playing important minutes/roles

not an all or nothing. nothing dramatic

where are we is the question?

We are Toronto at summer 2015. Zadina was our Marner.

Then they won draft lottery, and brought all kids in for 2016-17 season.

Our next summer could be the same as 2016 in Toronto. Will get another high pick and many kids are jumping in.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I mean that was clearly hyperbole to an extent but I would be shocked if Holland didn't sign at least one Defenseman and at least one Forward next offseason,in addition to bringing back both Helm and Glendening and most likely Green as well

wouldn't be at all surprised if Howard is extended as well and I think a Nyquist trade is far from a sure thing

We can play this game of "Holland will sign all the veterans!", but at some point soon people will realize why Holland has signed so many veterans...

(hint: it's because our prospects weren't very good)

I'll put together a list of all our prospect that have dominated in lower leagues while Holland signed veterans that blocked them:

Gustav Nyquist


Phew! That took some work. Now if our prospects this time around suck, they will be moved along slowly as well. But if only half of them are even half as good as we hope, we will get a lot of roster turnover in the next few years, and there will be a lot less need for veteran plugs. But I know, right, even if we landed Jack Hughes he would spend at least 2-3 years in grand rapids, amirite lol???

 

[Invictus12]

I do agree that the play of Larkin, Mantha, and AA will largely determine our date next season, but I don't see us in the playoffs. Tampa, Toronto and Boston will likely get the divisional spots and the wildcard will likely be Metro teams again. Not trying to be a Debbie-downer or anything, I just see probably 10 Eastern Conference teams stronger than us.

Which is good because we need at least another year of drafting in the top 10 before we can really start to think about being legit contenders.

I do see us able to compete for those spots for sure. Definitely don't see us anywhere close to the top of the division but if our goal tending stabilize without anything else, we probably already loooking for a couple of spots better than last year. There are teams that seem to have a better on paper roster and yet they perfrom worse than us so... Its a hard call.

 

[SCD]

What WILL happen is this;

Nyquist traded at the 2019 deadline, RAS up full-time at that point only

Rasmussen has no call up option this year. He is either in the NHL or back to CHL.

 

[Invictus12]

Then they have equaled what our "veteran" defense did last year.

As much as Ericsson is hated around here, there's a mountain of difference between him and Sproul

 

[ricky0034]

We can play this game of "Holland will sign all the veterans!", but at some point soon people will realize why Holland has signed so many veterans...

(hint: it's because our prospects weren't very good)

I'll put together a list of all our prospect that have dominated in lower leagues while Holland signed veterans that blocked them:

Gustav Nyquist


Phew! That took some work. Now if our prospects this time around suck, they will be moved along slowly as well. But if only half of them are even half as good as we hope, we will get a lot of roster turnover in the next few years, and there will be a lot less need for veteran plugs. But I know, right, even if we landed Jack Hughes he would spend at least 2-3 years in grand rapids, amirite lol???

I would disagree with that and submit that you aren't thinking about it from enough angles

for example Holland's refusal to clear spots on D and stubborn desire to cling onto guys like Lashoff and Kindl for far too long has had something of a trickle down effect on multiple occasions leading to there not being enough ice time to go around in Grand Rapids

the whole roster stuffing thing has also lead to a general feeling of hopelessness among the prospects on several occasions leading to for example a guy that spent several months as a PPG+ player in the AHL in Jarnkrok to feel the need to consider going back to Sweden

and that Nyquist thing which you mentioned was of course a big f***ing deal that many people won't get over for a long time nor should they






honestly though what's really concerning is the total lack of learning any sort of lesson,the fact that even now there's a very real chance that someone like Rasmussen or Zadina won't make the team at the start of the year no matter how good they look is NOT okay

 

[Pavels Dog]

honestly though what's really concerning is the total lack of learning any sort of lesson,the fact that even now there's a very real chance that someone like Rasmussen or Zadina won't make the team at the start of the year no matter how good they look is NOT okay

That ”very real chance” is mostly fearmongering among fans. No realiable source has said anything except Rasmussen AND Zadina having very, very good chances of making the team.
Of course we could end up in a situation where one of them doesn’t play great in the eyes of coaching/management but to the fans he looks good and gets sent down. It’s not impossible.

But real talent is rarely denied. If Zadina doesn’t make the team it won’t be because of Vanek. It’ll be because they don’t think he’s ready for a major role in the NHL yet. And that IS okay.

 

[Invictus12]

I would disagree with that and submit that you aren't thinking about it from enough angles

for example Holland's refusal to clear spots on D and stubborn desire to cling onto guys like Lashoff and Kindl for far too long has had something of a trickle down effect on multiple occasions leading to there not being enough ice time to go around in Grand Rapids

the whole roster stuffing thing has also lead to a general feeling of hopelessness among the prospects on several occasions leading to for example a guy that spent several months as a PPG+ player in the AHL in Jarnkrok to feel the need to consider going back to Sweden

and that Nyquist thing which you mentioned was of course a big ****ing deal that many people won't get over for a long time nor should they






honestly though what's really concerning is the total lack of learning any sort of lesson,the fact that even now there's a very real chance that someone like Rasmussen or Zadina won't make the team at the start of the year no matter how good they look is NOT okay

Simply scoring a goal is not necessarily a definition of looking good. Around 2002 Markstrom posted two shutouts in his opening bid with Edmonton. There many things that coaches and scouts look out besides a flash moment here and there.

And if Jarnkrok broke down and packed his things that fast then maybe that was the very reason why he didn't have what it takes to begin with at the time. You have to fight for your place in life not complain that someone isn't wrapping a gift for you. Otherwise you might as well sympathize with a player who complains that opposing defensmen aren't letting him through whenever he tries to drive to the net. Yeah, it's that ridiculous.

 

[shanman]

As much as Ericsson is hated around here, there's a mountain of difference between him and Sproul

I'm referring to what our defense did last year vs having a whopping 2 new youth guys who I believe are more highly thought of than sproul was. Amazing how some people focus on the past while conveniently ignoring how shit our defensive has been the last couple of years haha. By this logic because of sproul we should never play any new young defenders because "they may suck" haha

 

[Invictus12]

I'm referring to what our defense did last year vs having a whopping 2 new youth guys who I believe are more highly thought of than sproul was. Amazing how some people focus on the past while conveniently ignoring how **** our defensive has been the last couple of years haha. By this logic because of sproul we should never play any new young defenders because "they may suck" haha

Nice twist of logic there but which is more likely? A youngster isn't being given a chance because they don't want to look at him for some vague reason or team personnel (Coaches, scouts, you know, people who actually do this for a freaking living) deem they're not ready or capable of actually handling it yet? Really though? There were high hope on Sproul actually, including from myself. But you actually have to learn to stand before you can walk first.

 

[Goalie guy]

Simply scoring a goal is not necessarily a definition of looking good. Around 2002 Markstrom posted two shutouts in his opening bid with Edmonton. There many things that coaches and scouts look out besides a flash moment here and there.

And if Jarnkrok broke down and packed his things that fast then maybe that was the very reason why he didn't have what it takes to begin with at the time. You have to fight for your place in life not complain that someone isn't wrapping a gift for you. Otherwise you might as well sympathize with a player who complains that opposing defensmen aren't letting him through whenever he tries to drive to the net. Yeah, it's that ridiculous.

Is being a ppg player in the A not fighting for your place though? not that I think he was a game breaker or anything. Now if we did not have the players to push guys out of jobs that is fine. I have no problems with what has been done this off season even if the kids are not here. no reason to put kids in just because they are kids you are right. but some here just want kids because they are in the system.

 

[vladdy16]

There's been an obvious shift in the approach from management. Everyone memeing about a caricature they've made of the past, might not see it yet I guess. The fact that Hollands contract itself expires in timing with the big shift a couple diligent op's have pointed out should be a clue.

I have zero confidence in the ownership/people at the very top of this organization. But I also have no doubt that there's been a renaissance of sorts in the front office post-babcock, and it's paid off in the form of some really high floor youngsters, incredibly rich drafts in 2018 and 2019, and as has been pointed out so clearly by op, some super flexibility is built into the timeframe that the rebuild will be hitting ignition mode.

Personally I feel extraordinarily confident in Cholowski, Larkin and Veleno moving forward, and am comfortable looking for gamebreakers in free agency down the road, or through depth of picks and/or the back end of the lottery. Complete/consistent players are harder to find than gamebreakers.

Additionally, it's that time of year that I remind you all that Cholowski isn't some serviceable no.3. That guy is 28:00 minutes of possession and selfless birds eye game management.

We got it good I think. It's a daunting task with the likes of TB and TOR, but no amount of lottery picks will save us there. We'll have to navigate those waters if we ever get there.

 

[Henkka]

Also this freaking out about keeping prospects at Griffins and using Zadina and Rasmussen as same kind examples like Jarnkrok, Tatar, or Nyquist, is totally overblown and misleading. Guys will never play for Griffins as +20 aged. They are too good.

Zadina is 18, Rasmussen is 19. Svechnikov is 21, with injury background.

Järnkrok was 23-year old, when he was "pissed of" still in AHL, with zero NHL-game experience and traded.

Now we have Larkin, 21-year old, with 242 games of experience.
Now we have Mantha, 23-year old, with 150 games of experience
Now we have Athanasiou, 23-year old, with 172 games of experience.
Now we have Bertuzzi, 23-year old, with 55 games of experience.
Jurco was called up as 20-year old, has played 123 NHL games since. That back injury changed his fate, never was the same guy.

Pulkkinen, Nestrasil, Frk were crap and Holland was keeping them down, because they were non-fit in NHL. Too bad that our management has been too good to see these things. Worse management would have called them earlier and see them fail. Carolina tried Nestrasil, Minnesota tried Pulkkinen, they weren't working with them. Pulkkinen is still in AHL.

The policy isn't clearly the same overripening, what it was on Nyquist days, and what was a Mike Babcock thing. He wanted players who are ready. Only ready, who would help the team. Period.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

So what happens if svech, ras Zadina, hronek and cholo are the best five red wings throughout camp and the preseason?

What happens?
Are they all on the team?
If not , why not and how does that fit with the theory "if the kids are good enough then they will play"

 

[shanman]

Nice twist of logic there but which is more likely? A youngster isn't being given a chance because they don't want to look at him for some vague reason or team personnel (Coaches, scouts, you know, people who actually do this for a freaking living) deem they're not ready or capable of actually handling it yet? Really though? There were high hope on Sproul actually, including from myself. But you actually have to learn to stand before you can walk first.

You're right. Those scouts and coaches never make a mistake. I love when people bust that out when someone disagrees with them. Every nhl team has coaches and scouts....guess that is why none of them are ever wrong haha

As I said im waiting to the first game of season, but just don't have hope for holland to do the right thing until we get to the midseason and playoffs aren't possible. Holland loves his vets too much

 

[Henkka]

So what happens if Svech, Ras Zadina, Hronek and Cholo are the best five red wings throughout camp and the preseason?

What happens?
Are they all on the team?
If not , why not and how does that fit with the theory "if the kids are good enough then they will play"

- Rasmussen will fit on the team anyways.
- Frk will be waived for Zadina
- Witkowski will be waived for Svechnikov
- Hicketts send to AHL, Cholowski called up.
- One defenceman traded/injured, Hronek in.

It will need only one bigger move (trade) if all are healthy. Worse players just drop on the pressbox.

It's easy. People in here just flame it to be somehow complicated.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

- Rasmussen will fit on the team anyways.
- Frk will be waived for Zadina
- Witkowski will be waived for Svechnikov
- Hicketts send to AHL, Cholowski called up.
- One defenceman traded/injured, Hronek in.

It will need only one bigger move (trade) if all are healthy. Worse players just drop on the pressbox.

It's easy. People in here just flame it to be somehow complicated.

No injuries occured at all

So whats the trade? I am curious to see which dman you think would then be traded among kronwall, daley, green, dekeyser and Ericsson knowing that cholo and hronek were better in camp and as you said that is all kh will care about

 

[Invictus12]

You're right. Those scouts and coaches never make a mistake. I love when people bust that out when someone disagrees with them. Every nhl team has coaches and scouts....guess that is why none of them are ever wrong haha

As I said im waiting to the first game of season, but just don't have hope for holland to do the right thing until we get to the midseason and playoffs aren't possible. Holland loves his vets too much

You mean the same way fans can be wrong? Again, remember Pulkkinen and all the fits that he won't get a spot on the roster?
It;s funny how you talk of difference of opinion and in the same post talk about Holland 'doing the right thing'.... So in other words, what you think is actually automatically the right thing, huh? The irony and the arrogance is just amazing. Here's the difference though, the coaching staff and whoever else, do this day to day as it's their actual job. You probably spent most of the time looking at stats on your computer and think you have a clue on the whole picture.