Speculation: Roster Turn Over

[Leadzedder]

I could have probably stuck this into Henkka's great NTC plan thread but I'll try a new one.

It seems some posters have trouble with seeing the long plan. Maybe this will help. I'll show the roster as of now and what it could be after this year's deadline and next year's deadline. Obviously just speculating on what may happen but it's quite likely.

Our roster is pretty much set unless there are moves made before opening day. The gist is we have 1 forward spot and 1 defenceman spot. I'll guess Turgeon and Hicketts but whatever. Fill in your favorite rookie names.

Bertuzzi - Zetterberg - Nyquist
Abdelkader - Larkin - Mantha
Vanek - Neilson - Athanasiou
Helm - Glendening - Frk
Witkowski - ROOKIE

Dekeyeser - Daley
Green - Ericsson
Kronwall - Jensen
ROOKIE

Howard
Bernier


About the above line up, I'm cool with it. Let Rasmussen, Zadina & Svechnikov wait awhile. Same with Hronek & Cholowski. The next season will be the season of the kids.


At the deadline...

we could move out our upcoming UFA's...Nyquist, Vanek, Jensen and Howard. That gives us room for 3 more rookies on the roster and Sateri.


In the off season...

we bid farewell to Zetterberg and Kronwall. 2 more spots open up.


Opening roster for 19-20...

Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha
Abdelkader - Neilson - Athanasiou
Helm - Glendening - Frk (re-signed?)
ROOKIE - ROOKIE - ROOKIE
Witkowski - ROOKIE

Dekeyeser - Daley
Green - Ericsson
ROOKIE - ROOKIE
ROOKIE

Bernier
Sateri (re-signed?)



Then we get to the next trade deadline....

Where we can offload Helm, Glendening, Green, Daley & Ericsson and we can replace with guess what? Rookies.

Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha
Abdelkader - Neilson - Athanasiou
ROOKIE - ROOKIE - Frk (re-signed?)
ROOKIE - ROOKIE - ROOKIE
Witkowski - ROOKIE

Dekeyeser - ROOKIE
ROOKIE - ROOKIE
ROOKIE - ROOKIE
ROOKIE

Bernier
Sateri (re-signed?)


So in the very near future (1 1/2 - 2 years) we'll have plenty of room for young players. Vanek, Green and Bernier might make this year tight but they don't negatively affect us in the long term. Players like Frk and Witkowski are here for a reason. Up to 12 spots by next year's deadline. We don't have that many young players ready or even available. You want players like Wit and Frk for depth.

1. Rasmussen
2. Zadina
3. Svechnikov
4. Turgeon
5. Veleno?
6.

1. Hronek
2. Cholowski
3. Hicketts
4. Sulak?
5.
6.

We need a few more drafts before this new red wings team takes shape. Those 9 players (Nyquist, Vanek, Helm, Glendening, Jensen, Daley, Green, Ericsson and Howard) should provide us with bonus picks.

So let's enjoy the transition and not lose our shit over everything.

Click to read more...

 

[Heaton]

So, Holland has made an emphasis to sign veterans to ease the transition but you think that he'll stop signing veterans after this year? Doubtful.

I also don't believe Holland is going to rebuild by not actually inserting young NHL ready players on the roster. Sending Rasmussen back to juniors may be a detriment to his development. We're not in a situation where we can be that patient with the kids, I don't believe Holland or ownership is interested in cooling everything off for another 3-5 years. Holland talked about tear down rebuilds taking 10 years, but Holland isn't doing a tear down rebuild, so it shouldn't take that long for this team to start putting an emphasis on winning again.

I expect another down year, then this team will have at least part of the new core in place. After the lockout (because there will be one), I expect this team to be rid of the old guard and the new guard take shape. That doesn't mean I'm expecting a playoff run, but I do expect this team to be trending towards competing for the playoffs within 2-3 years.

 

[Hammettf2b]

As if Holland isn't going to sing an aging vet in free agency in the next offseasons. pfffft

 

[Leadzedder]

Ok, how many old vets do you figure he signs?

Maybe he signs a couple. Who cares? Where's the 12 young kids knocking on the door. This year we have maybe 3 that are ready. Just look at this year. A back up goalie for 3 years, a forward for 1 year and a dman for 2. That's his new MO.

Truth is, if he finds the right player I would have no issue with a long term deal. We have the room.

 

[ricky0034]

you forgot the 8 year Helm extension and the UFA signings of Ron Hainsey,Justin Williams,and Jori Lehtera next offseason

 

[Leadzedder]

So, Holland has made an emphasis to sign veterans to ease the transition but you think that he'll stop signing veterans after this year? Doubtful.

I also don't believe Holland is going to rebuild by not actually inserting young NHL ready players on the roster. Sending Rasmussen back to juniors may be a detriment to his development. We're not in a situation where we can be that patient with the kids, I don't believe Holland or ownership is interested in cooling everything off for another 3-5 years. Holland talked about tear down rebuilds taking 10 years, but Holland isn't doing a tear down rebuild, so it shouldn't take that long for this team to start putting an emphasis on winning again.

I expect another down year, then this team will have at least part of the new core in place. After the lockout (because there will be one), I expect this team to be rid of the old guard and the new guard take shape. That doesn't mean I'm expecting a playoff run, but I do expect this team to be trending towards competing for the playoffs within 2-3 years.

So let's go with my speculation that 12 spots are opening up in the next 2 years. Out of the 12, how many should be used for young players? How many for vets to help transition the kids? 9 and 3? I'd say that's cool.

In the scenario I laid out the only vets here past the scenario are Neilsen, Abdelkader, DK. That's about it, so yeah, a couple good vets brought in is probably best.

 

[Leadzedder]

you forgot the 8 year Helm extension and the UFA signings of Ron Hainsey,Justin Williams,and Jori Lehtera next offseason

Actually I don't want to get into debating shit replies. I'll just leave the post up as some might find it useful.

I guess we'll all see what Holland does between now and then.

 

[Heaton]

So let's go with my speculation that 12 spots are opening up in the next 2 years. Out of the 12, how many should be used for young players? How many for vets to help transition the kids? 9 and 3? I'd say that's cool.

In the scenario I laid out the only vets here past the scenario are Neilsen, Abdelkader, DK. That's about it, so yeah, a couple good vets brought in is probably best.

'Should' is an interesting question. I look at it more like, if Rasmussen, Zadina, Hronek, Cholo etc... aren't on the team and making somewhat of an impact, this franchise is in deep shit. I hope everyone has been paying attention to the rest of the league, this is a league where young players get earlier opportunities and make an impact earlier than previous years.

I expect Ramsussen to play this year and Zadina to play in the top 6 next year and produce. If they don't, I consider that a red flag.

 

[ricky0034]

Did you wanna put a wager on any of that or are you just spreading negative thoughts?

I mean that was clearly hyperbole to an extent but I would be shocked if Holland didn't sign at least one Defenseman and at least one Forward next offseason,in addition to bringing back both Helm and Glendening and most likely Green as well

wouldn't be at all surprised if Howard is extended as well and I think a Nyquist trade is far from a sure thing

 

[Leadzedder]

'Should' is an interesting question. I look at it more like, if Rasmussen, Zadina, Hronek, Cholo etc... aren't on the team and making somewhat of an impact, this franchise is in deep ****. I hope everyone has been paying attention to the rest of the league, this is a league where young players get earlier opportunities and make an impact earlier than previous years.

I expect Ramsussen to play this year and Zadina to play in the top 6 next year and produce. If they don't, I consider that a red flag.

Maybe you're right. I don't know, but I don't see the urgency. I look forward to another down season with some bright spots, another top 10 pick with a busy deadline and I want the roster next year to be full of kids.

 

[Leadzedder]

I mean that was clearly hyperbole to an extent but I would be shocked if Holland didn't sign at least one Defenseman and at least one Forward next offseason,in addition to bringing back both Helm and Glendening and most likely Green as well

wouldn't be at all surprised if Howard is extended as well and I think a Nyquist trade is far from a sure thing

Hyperbole is annoying and tiresome.

I'm sure Holland will continue to fill the roster spots that he doesn't have an NHL ready player for. And yeah, some of those players might be signed again for that purpose.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I think you're fooling yourself if you think that unlike this summer or last summer or the summer before that or before that NEXT summer KH will let all UFAs walk, NOT sign any new UFA's and back fill solely with kids....

that is not negative thoughts, its logic based on precedence, any other opinion is just fantasy or hope

What WILL happen is this;

Nyquist traded at the 2019 deadline, RAS up full-time at that point only
Next summer howard resigned, a free agent Centre and Dman signed(brassard and edler), Kronwall retired, Jensen waived
TDL 2020 Daley traded, Cholo up full time at that point only

 

[Heaton]

Maybe you're right. I don't know, but I don't see the urgency. I look forward to another down season with some bright spots, another top 10 pick with a busy deadline and I want the roster next year to be full of kids.

I don't think it's urgency, it's about making progress. Taking little teeny tiny baby steps and prolonging the rebuild for 3,4,5,6,7 years is just going to turn into another rebuild. This team should be relevant and back in the playoffs within 5 years maximum.

 

[Invictus12]

I think you're fooling yourself if you think that unlike this summer or last summer or the summer before that or before that NEXT summer KH will let all UFAs walk, NOT sign any new UFA's and back fill solely with kids....

that is not negative thoughts, its logic based on precedence, any other opinion is just fantasy or hope

What WILL happen is this;

Nyquist traded at the 2019 deadline, RAS up full-time at that point only
Next summer howard resigned, a free agent Centre and Dman signed(brassard and edler), Kronwall retired, Jensen waived
TDL 2020 Daley traded, Cholo up full time at that point only

Okay and what's wrong with that if either our youngsters make it and on the team along with those signings or bust and shipped out? What exactly would be the problem? How about you folks explain for once?

 

[FunkyColdZadina]

I don't think Frk's job is all that safe. He can be buried in the minors if need be, so with a strong showing in camp Rass/Zadina could steal his spot.

Also Z's future is still up in the air at the moment and that could potentially be another open spot this year.

All in all, good post on our future outlook. Really makes me wish our 2017 draft class was stronger...

 

[Invictus12]

I don't think Frk's job is all that safe. He can be buried in the minors if need be, so with a strong showing in camp Rass/Zadina could steal his spot.

Also Z's future is still up in the air at the moment and that could potentially be another open spot this year.

All in all, good post on our future outlook. Really makes me wish our 2017 draft class was stronger...

Frk is probably dealt, before the season is over unless he shows major strides.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Okay and what's wrong with that if either our youngsters make it and on the team along with those signings or bust and shipped out? What exactly would be the problem? How about you folks explain for once?

whats wrong with what?

I am not sure what you're asking..

I believe this thread was about roster turnover, specific to the summer of 2019. What I am saying and is that their will be no significant roster turnover towards youth at any greater pace than we have seen these past 5 years.

what is the problem? everything and nothing, all depends on how you see the league today? a veterans league or a young mans league

 

[Invictus12]

whats wrong with what?

I am not sure what you're asking..

I believe this thread was about roster turnover, specific to the summer of 2019. What I am saying and is that their will be no significant roster turnover towards youth at any greater pace than we have seen these past 5 years.

what is the problem? everything and nothing, all depends on how you see the league today? a veterans league or a young mans league

It's always a combination of both.

 

[masta8]

My hope is that we trade Nyqvist before the season starts... If we trade him we might be able to get a decent prospect or a 2nd round pick plus a prospect. If he has a slow start to the season and underperforms by the deadline we might have to settle for a mid round pick. I also like trading Nyqvist because it would free up a top 6 spot for a younger player or guarantee a spot for Zadina this season (which realistically believe he will earn it from a strong preseason).. Hopefully he waives his NTC.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

It's always a combination of both.

it sure is

but that ratio changes depending on where you're in your cycle, good teams tend to have more guys in their primes on expensive deals playing important minutes/roles, bad teams tend to have more guys in their early 20's on ELCS playing important minutes/roles

not an all or nothing. nothing dramatic

where are we is the question?

 

[shanman]

I'm holding my full judgement til opening night, but for all those assuming magically we won't keep signing veterans, in a team with players such as z, Abby,nyq, helm,Nielsen,lgd, witkowski,Daley,ddk,kronwall, Ericsson,and jensen we still signed vanek and green for their "veteran presence"


And although I don't 100 percent hate the vanek signing, I have zero faith in Holland's ability to stay away from veteran free agents. Green for over 5 million is just ridiculous IMO

 

[Flowah]

It seems some posters have trouble with seeing the long plan.

I think we're just skeptical that the moves that can and should be made, will be made.

 

[Invictus12]

it sure is

but that ratio changes depending on where you're in your cycle, good teams tend to have more guys in their primes on expensive deals playing important minutes/roles, bad teams tend to have more guys in their early 20's on ELCS playing important minutes/roles

not an all or nothing. nothing dramatic

where are we is the question?

Well alot of things have to come together, sure. Just on the surface of things, most here seem to want to ship Nyquist away but at the same time, he's one of the few very capable passers on our team. It really depends on the youngsters. If Larkin continues as he is while and Mantha and AA take a strides similar to Larkin's last season, we probably have a playoff team and our major set back from being a top team is defence. However, it's not just because they take strides but because we have excellent depth on the roster. We have guys who can penalty kill, forecheck effectively etc. If Ras steps up, we have what we've been missing a while and what was our major set back in the last 3 round of playoffs... A guy that can muscle his way towards the net and score while there.

 

[shanman]

I think we're just skeptical that the moves that can and should be made, will be made.

Exactly. We have 5 veteran defensemen and yet holland goes out and gets a 6th. Daley can provide a lot that green can. He played some pp time with Pittsburgh I believe. Between sulak cholo and hronek I want to see 2 of them to start the season, with hicketts our 7th d. That is a completely valid way of integrating youth for a bottom team like we are right now imo.

 

[Shaman464]

Holland is severely risk adverse. He is scared to death of it. That's why he's willing to overpay AA. That's why he's willing to re-sign players that have been here before. That's why he won't let the team start with 3 rookies in the lineup. He'd rather have a mediocre team with vets an retreads than risk a bad team with youth, even if it means making the team better in the long term.