Roster Thread (2023-2024 Season)

[sabremike]

I have less issue with Cozens at 2C than I do with Thompson at 1C.

 

[Selanne00008]

Digging around in their 5-on-5 numbers last year vs. this year:

5-on-5 goals for per game: 2.14 this year, last year 2.40

5-on-5 goals against per game: 1.94 this year, last year 2.49

Difference: so far this year +14, last year -7

So again... it's the powerplay. Last year they had a +56 goal differential on the PP, this year a 29th best total of +24.

Penalty killing they are -40 THIS YEAR so for it's -16 differential for PPG, SHG - PPGA and SHGA. They were a -56 total on the PK last year.

They have shaved almost a half goal per game off their goals against at 5-on-5 and only a quarter of a goal for. It's the 30 goal difference in the PP differential so far.

Pretty shocking numbers. So the defensive strategy is actually paying off since our goals for went down LESS than our goals against did.

Even our powerplay units are the same players, so what gives? Tage scored like 10 more goals on the one-timer last year it seems and teams wised up. I've seen him try his one-timer 10+ times over the last few games and the goalie is either ready or it rings around the boards shot wide. Ellis needs to learn and adapt. There's a thing called the record button and other teams figure sh*t out.

 

[Chainshot]

Pretty shocking numbers. So the defensive strategy is actually paying off since our goals for went down LESS than our goals against did.

Even our powerplay units are the same players, so what gives? Tage scored like 10 more goals on the one-timer last year it seems and teams wised up. I've seen him try his one-timer 10+ times over the last few games and the goalie is either ready or it rings around the boards shot wide. Ellis needs to learn and adapt. There's a thing called the record button and other teams figure sh*t out.

Since the end of December 2022 (picking the 25th for just running the stats), they have been one of the worst PP teams in the NHL at 17.1% or 27th in the entire league. It's been a problem for over a year. Most teams are defending the point-to-flanker one-timer better per some of the guys who talk about more in-depth stats (Woodley using his access to CSA's stuff specifically). The unit does not feature much of a net-front guy without it being someone people scream about being out there doing that - Okposo on the second unit, Greenway on either the 2nd unit or now on the first unit - for just screen purposes. They also don't try to overload to the side away from the shot option as other teams are doing, whereby they would have everyone but Thompson on one side, rotating the puck and themselves around until such time as the seam opens to allow the one-timer OR they try something from their side with an opportunity to outman the other team at the net.

There are so many things they could try and they have done almost none of them. I would've walked Ellis out months ago but here we are.

 

[stokes84]

I have less issue with Cozens at 2C than I do with Thompson at 1C.

They are on the same contract and Thompson is the far superior player. Ergo, Thompson is the better 2C. They don’t have a 1C.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Digging around in their 5-on-5 numbers last year vs. this year:

5-on-5 goals for per game: 2.14 this year, last year 2.40

5-on-5 goals against per game: 1.94 this year, last year 2.49

Difference: so far this year +14, last year -7

So again... it's the powerplay. Last year they had a +56 goal differential on the PP, this year a 29th best total of +24.

Penalty killing they are -40 THIS YEAR so for it's -16 differential for PPG, SHG - PPGA and SHGA. They were a -56 total on the PK last year.

They have shaved almost a half goal per game off their goals against at 5-on-5 and only a quarter of a goal for. It's the 30 goal difference in the PP differential so far.

Yup. If you gave this year's team last year's PP, we're likely in the playoffs.

 

[Chainshot]

They are on the same contract and Thompson is the far superior player. Ergo, Thompson is the better 2C. They don’t have a 1C.

When Thompson was 23, he had a 14 point year.

 

[Gras]

It's f***ing time. Bring up some kids who might give a serious effort. Waive Skinner, Olofsson, Robinson, Krebs. Put Thompson, Power, Cozens in the pressbox for a while. There are no consequences for pathetic performances, except a fat f***ing pay day. No wonder they play like shit. Good job Donny, you've reinforced mediocrity.

Roch is trying to make the playoffs too ya know.

 

[Zman5778]

Yup. If you gave this year's team last year's PP, we're likely in the playoffs.

Or if you gave last year's team this year's UPL.......we make the playoffs last year.

 

[Irie]

They are on the same contract and Thompson is the far superior player. Ergo, Thompson is the better 2C. They don’t have a 1C.

Thompson is the superior offense player now, but when he has no space, he is completely ineffective. He is at his best on broken plays when he is moving and the D is caught flat footed - in that situation, he can dangle through an entire D and make highlight plays like few can in this league. But when the D has position on him and takes away his space, they completely shut him down, time and time again.

Thompson is a very unorthodox center, and requires a winger to create the space for him and ideally a winger to cover his defensive deficiencies. In the right situation, he can be a very effective top 6 center, but he is not a guy you can plug into any line to get other players going. Cozens hopefully will become that. He is still very young for an NHL center, so don't write him off yet.

 

[Beerz]

Your biggest downfalls on the power play from last year to this year..

Thompson - minus 12
VO - minus 6
Tuch- minus 6
Cozens- minus 3

 

[Djp]

Pardon the daydreaming, but I'm thinking about doable but significant changes after last night's season finale. Well-liked core guys need to move out - here it's Sammy, Joki, and Krebs.

Skinner-Thompson-Tuch
Peterka-Cozens-Quinn
Benson-Jack Drury-Savoie
Greenway-Teddy Blueger-Pierre Engvall
Sam Lafferty

Byram-Dahlin
Power-Matt Roy
Johnson-Clifton
Bryson

UPL
Levi

4 x 3.95 for UPL
1 x 1.5 for Bryson
Joki and Krebs for Drury and a 2nd (4 x 3.6 for Drury)
Sammy for Engvall (*or similar, he's got a 16NTC to work around) - plus/minus picks on each trade
3 x 5.5 for Roy (likely light in term and dollars)
3 x 3.2 for Blueger
1 x 1.75 for Lafferty

$86.24 cap hit

Two legit scoring lines, a speedy, annoying two-way third line, and an actual bruising fourth line. A top 10 D corps. High upside goaltending with some risk.

The next off-season would be messy and require a Skinner buyout plus other moves to sign JJ, Quinn, and Byram, but Kulich and others should be ready by then. Could be less aggressive in the present in exchange for more future flexibility, but the way this fanbase is behaving it feels like playoffs are an absolute must next year. Figure out the future when it gets here like contending teams do.

What's good, what do you hate, what's unrealistic?

I'm not touching engvall with a 10 ft poll and Sam is worth alot more than him.

Not signing bulger to that

Yup. If you gave this year's team last year's PP, we're likely in the playoffs.

Many factors...

The PP makes s difference in the 20 or so 1 g loses ( ignoring ENs Against). Add 3 pts to their record

The had about 8 or so 2g against games ( in reg, ignore ENs) that they didnt get 2 pts.add 3 pts to these games

A couple other games they were 0 for 6 of worse on PP. Thry score 2-3 ,g they get 1-2 pts . Add 2 pts to record

8 more pts they are in a playoff spot.

 

[stokes84]

When Thompson was 23, he had a 14 point year.

And as we know, player development isn’t always linear. They are on the same contract. One player is better than the other. No reason to complicate it beyond that.

Thompson is the superior offense player now, but when he has no space, he is completely ineffective. He is at his best on broken plays when he is moving and the D is caught flat footed - in that situation, he can dangle through an entire D and make highlight plays like few can in this league. But when the D has position on him and takes away his space, they completely shut him down, time and time again.

Thompson is a very unorthodox center, and requires a winger to create the space for him and ideally a winger to cover his defensive deficiencies. In the right situation, he can be a very effective top 6 center, but he is not a guy you can plug into any line to get other players going. Cozens hopefully will become that. He is still very young for an NHL center, so don't write him off yet.

He plays against top matchups every game. Move him into Cozens role and he’s a 40 goal scorer again.

 

[Mattilaus]

Pretty shocking numbers. So the defensive strategy is actually paying off since our goals for went down LESS than our goals against did.

Even our powerplay units are the same players, so what gives? Tage scored like 10 more goals on the one-timer last year it seems and teams wised up. I've seen him try his one-timer 10+ times over the last few games and the goalie is either ready or it rings around the boards shot wide. Ellis needs to learn and adapt. There's a thing called the record button and other teams figure sh*t out.

Is the defensive strategy working? Or do we just have good goaltending?

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think Savoie and eventually Ostlund will fill whatever center needs they have.

 

[TehDoak]

I think Savoie and eventually Ostlund will fill whatever center needs they have.

So our playoff drought hits driving age eh?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

We can and do develop players. We just let them leave or trade them away as soon they're done developing.

Ulmark, Reinhart, Eichel, Mitts. Depth players like E-rod or Ruhwedel. Trade away talent that we didn't draft, but are on the verge of breaking out like RoR and Montour.

And then the cycle repeats.

I’d add Carrier and Borgen to that. Two players I’d kill to add to the roster right now.

 

[brian_griffin]

Lets drop the smokescreen by saying depth players. We got plenty of depth players in the minors and easily tradable for a 5th pick from other NHL teams like Robinson was a conditional 7th. We are talking about Victor Olofsson not depth players. You are trying to spin.

Your statement then implies. Victor Olofsson helps this team win. You say depth players help. You think Victor Olofsson helps this team win.

So by your own admission you think Olofsson helps this team win? A simple yes or no question. Care to answer?


Victor Olofsson in my opinion does nothing for this team and there are players out there that are available for 5th, 6th and 7th round picks like Robinson. So you think Victor Olofsson helps this team win you should be for signing him then right?


Nonsense that you argue with me about Victor Oloffson being good for this team and helps this team win by using a smoke screen and calling him a depth player. He will be lucky to get a contract from an NHL club next year and if he does its probably going to be league minimum.

The fan mentality of this organization after 13 years is to think Victor Olofsson is a player who helps this team is beyond reason.

And yes its only Victor Olofsson who cares but its a part of a bigger picture where Adams continues to bring in fringe NHL players who other teams don't even want and our fan base thinks these depth players help us win even though we missed the playoffs 13 years in a row.

Keep applauding those depth players helping us win nothing. 90% of the players Adams signs aren't even NHL players but ya, depth helps us win!

You made your point in the first paragraph and then more or less repeat it 7 times in the succeeding paragraphs...

You are conflating not trading Olofsson with a implicit (or maybe explicit by some) endorsement that he helps the team win and is needed. If you go there, you could make the argument BUF should/could have also traded Jost, Bryson, Comrie, Robinson, others. They are no more nor less needed than Olofsson, if you're going to invoke the "needed" phrase.

From what I read, no one - or at best a scant few - is saying Olofsson is good or helps the team win. They are saying when BUF was beset with a scoring forward offseason injury of unknown duration (Quinn), Olofsson by default from that injury now held more value than a 5th-7th pick. Others (@Der Jaeger, @Chainshot, you, etc.) would have be settled for the pick / risking losing the trade because of the rationale you cite.

Also, invoking Eric Robinson was a red herring. He had been waived and cleared earlier in the season for assignment to Cleveland / Lake Erie. Buffalo offering a conditional pick was the typical thing to do to enable giving him an NHL roster slot. Feel free to berate BUF for not making the waiver claim earlier when they were able, but I also don't see a connection to Olofsson.

I will grant that it is a conspicuous indictment that two years running, the Sabres have made waiver claims (Jost, Robinson) for players who are arguably NHL/AHL tweeners, yet those waiver claims still can't be "forced" down to the minors or out of the Sabres org by the improved play of other emerging talents from within the BUF-ROC-etc. organization.

Me in the Roster thread - Victor Olofsson is useless and should have been traded long ago!

HF Posters - No we need depth

Also

HF Posters in the GDT - Victor Olofsson is useless and should have been traded long ago!

Its almost like people arguing just to argue.

As for the hill to die on, I made an observation based on my opinion first. You are the one that keeps coming back and arguing with me. You are the one dying on this hill that Olofsson is needed. Am I not allowed to critique the team? Or when you say stop I have to stop? No one forced you to respond. Its a bizarre statement to make that has nothing to do with the conversation but I guess you are at the top of that hill and I should just shut up now? Your comment has nothing to do with the conversation.

The forum rules are to discuss the topic at hand not make it personal like you are doing and discussing the veracity of my commitment to the topic.

Damn, I made a simple statement that Olofsson shouldn't be on this team anymore and Adams dropped the ball and I got 5 people arguing with me about it saying he is needed and helps this team and then in the game day thread they all call him trassh.

Perhaps ironic?

I am no Skinner apologist but I will say that he is the opposite of a lot of our forwards in that he's a player that does well down low with not a lot of space. On the perimeter and in space he really doesn't do great at all which explains why he does better 5v5 as opposed to the PP

I agree. In that regard he is rare (for current BUF roster). And why I'm less adamant than others he needs to be bought out.

I don't think it's about the fourth line, per se, but rather constructing the roster properly. Oloffson can't be looked at as "depth" but rather another soft, redundant player that he brought back. .

I don't look at him signing guys to be fourth liners but roster spots, and our roster had holes (role players) that needed to be filled. That's why I didn't like him bringing back a few of these guys.

Agreed. Interesting that a couple recent games (Seattle, etc.) where the lines were made more similar in construction (Girgensons doing dirty work for #72, #89, Skinner moved down; Greenway with Benson, etc.) the Sabres did a little better, or at least were more consistent through the lines, as opposed to one line looking OK, two looking over-matched and the remaining line like there was all the familiarity between them of a fill-in joining for a night of beer league.

Its called following the logic of why VO is still here.

KA was likely looking to trade VO since the last deadline since he was starting to fall out of favor.

During offseason training Quinn gets hurt

VO competes with other internal players for Quinns roster spot with Benson, Savoie, Rusek, Kulich, Rosen.

VO loses competition to Benson so hes relegated to 12/13th forward and rotates in and out of the lineup

Quinn comes back from injury for about a month which pushed VO into the 13th forward role

Quinn goes down with injury again, which nobody could have predicted would have happened which brings VO back from the 12/13th rotation

Lack of cap space amongst the league for competitive teams, so not worth adding VO to their rosters even at 50%

Teams with cap space dont need him because most of them arent competitively in the playoff race.

And NONE of the above implies BUF needed Olofsson to win.

Come with me And you’ll see
A team lacking any inspiration.
Follow me and you’ll see
A coach and GM requiring forced resignation

Perhaps a decent "small but skilled" template to follow.
At least oompa loompas work hard, yet together, for their entire shift, and know where their teammates are/will be..

I think they have one in Thompson. I think they have a decent 2C in Cozens. They just need them to play to their capabilities. They did not do that this season for a variety of reasons.

They have a decent top 3 D in Dahlin, Byram, and Power.

They have a good starting goalie in UPL.

They have talent on the wings.

They need to add 3 or 4 of the right veterans to the roster and shake up the coaching staff.

yeah... maybe... hopefully...
Would like to see another season closer to last one to be sure. I am skeptical he can adapt further to the modifications teams have made to defend him on the ice.

The organization failed to recognize that Mittelstadt was the closest thing to a 1C, and that Thompson was/is the luxury middle-six offensive mismatch threat. They stay with TT, Cozens, and Krebs, this story is over.

Mittelstadt to me was their best all-situations, all-zones center, or at least had that potential more-so than Thompson (or Cozens).

Digging around in their 5-on-5 numbers last year vs. this year:

5-on-5 goals for per game: 2.14 this year, last year 2.40

5-on-5 goals against per game: 1.94 this year, last year 2.49

Difference: so far this year +14, last year -7

So again... it's the powerplay. Last year they had a +56 goal differential on the PP, this year a 29th best total of +24.

Penalty killing they are -40 THIS YEAR so for it's -16 differential for PPG, SHG - PPGA and SHGA. They were a -56 total on the PK last year.

They have shaved almost a half goal per game off their goals against at 5-on-5 and only a quarter of a goal for. It's the 30 goal difference in the PP differential so far.

Don't know what the numbers show, but it also seems they don't work hard enough consistently enough to draw penalties,

Watching their power play often is like watching two dissimilar animal species trying to mate.

 

[Tijuana Donkey Show]

I have less issue with Cozens at 2C than I do with Thompson at 1C.

The organization failed to recognize that Mittelstadt was the closest thing to a 1C, and that Thompson was/is the luxury middle-six offensive mismatch threat. They stay with TT, Cozens, and Krebs, this story is over.

At the very least Mitts has been our top center for the last 400 days or so.

I really never understood the constant parroting that Cozens “could” be better than Mitts as a 2C. Maybe? But it’s a roster devoid of developed NHL ready talent. Why move on from the guy who is playing at an NHL level because another guy might too?

I think Cozens should have been moved to the wing. If the Sabres can somehow stumble into a real life top line center I think JJP and Quinn can play wing on that line and a second line of Benson-Thompson - Cozens.

 

[slip]

Mitts/Cozens > Tage/Cozens for the long term. But we are where we are.

 

[Der Jaeger]

So our playoff drought hits driving age eh?

Go look at Point’s progression from his draft year. Then look at Savoie.

If he didn’t get hurt he might make the team from camp.

 

[toddkaz]

Is Peterka really that good defensively? He doesn't look like it with the eye test.

 

[SundherDome]

Is Peterka really that good defensively? He doesn't look like it with the eye test.


View attachment 840349

He back checks well, but I doubt he is in the lane blocking shots

 

[Chainshot]

He back checks well, but I doubt he is in the lane blocking shots

If you think he back checks well, go rewatch that Oiler game and watch the controller disconnect moments. Or the unforced turnover that winds up immediately in the back of their net.

 

[BFLO]

Is the defensive strategy working? Or do we just have good goaltending?

It's mostly goal tending. But we have improved defensively as well.

2022-23
xGA/60: 2.82 (26th)
GA/60: 3.06 (28th)
-0.24 ratio between xGA and GA implies goaltending below average
xGF/60: 2.75
GF/60: 2.96

2023-24
xGA/60: 2.61(19th) .21 improvement YoY
GA/60: 2.41 (11th) 0.65 improvement YoY
+0.20 ratio between xGA and GA implies goaltending above average
xGF/60: 2.49 -0.26 YoY
GF/60: 2.63 -0.33 YoY

 

[SundherDome]

If you think he back checks well, go rewatch that Oiler game and watch the controller disconnect moments. Or the unforced turnover that winds up immediately in the back of their net.

I think the whole team would want to burn the Edmonton tape, generally speaking, he uses his speed to back check.