Speculation: Roster Speculation XVII - Because It's Summer

[dotcommunism]

... and Lindholm is quite a bit better than Hamilton.

Interestingly, the compensation for Hamilton's contract would've been a 1st, 2nd, 3rd. So by trading for him, Calgary paid more/Boston got more... and Chiarelli got cockblocked.

Should we assume the contract that Hamilton got signed to is what Calgary would have offered in an offer sheet, though?

Beyond that, I think you're underestimating the value to Calgary in knowing they were giving up last year's 15th overall vs whatever their first would've been this year (which ended up being 6th), especially if Calgary's management thought that the team overachieved last year (which I think many would conclude that they did). Add in that the lottery was for the top 3 picks this year, and that certainty had even more value for Calgary.

 

[dkollidas]

... and Lindholm is quite a bit better than Hamilton .

But... Points???

But in all seriousness, I looked back to before the draft when Hamilton was traded and Boston fans sounded so much like Anaheim fans do now, i.e. "If you want him start with Reinhart" etc.

To me Anaheim is the most interesting team to look at as one to poach players from. They may qualify Lindholm and Vatanen, and then if one is offer sheeted just decide to sign the other.
I think Anaheim will take the assets of an offersheet, or some combo of picks/cheap players/prospects if a team warns the ducks of a coming offer sheet.

But yes, 6.5 over 7yrs matching deals for Risto & Lindholm, or possibly 8yrs at $6.25 (totals $50M and I like big even numbers), would be ideal. Realistic, maybe not, but the longer Lindholm goes unsigned the more realistic an idea it becomes.

 

[Beerz]

 

[Jame]

Should we assume the contract that Hamilton got signed to is what Calgary would have offered in an offer sheet, though?

Beyond that, I think you're underestimating the value to Calgary in knowing they were giving up last year's 15th overall vs whatever their first would've been this year (which ended up being 6th), especially if Calgary's management thought that the team overachieved last year (which I think many would conclude that they did). Add in that the lottery was for the top 3 picks this year, and that certainty had even more value for Calgary.

Interesting questions... not sure I buy that Calgary presumed they would be worse. When does a front office ever achieve that type of foresight But the lottery changes definitely make a difference in the pick value.

 

[OilTastic]

I think if any defense is acquired from Edmonton it's Davidson. Left hand shot. Had a pretty good coming out party last year. Would be interesting if he was coming back Buffalo's way.

Blind speculation, but based on what we've heard it's a pretty good guess that Edmonton and Buffalo are chatting.

Girgensons, Pysyk, 8 for Davidson and 4?

Davidson is very highly valued from Oilers fans.

Davidson and #4 for Girgensons, Pysyk and #8 is a deal i'd do for sure! if we acquired another RD in another trade and signed a RD UFA like Demers, then those 3 RD would allow us to send Fayne on his way and we can move Sekera back to the left side to take Davidson's place. no lose here.

 

[Aladyyn]

Davidson and #4 for Girgensons, Pysyk and #8 is a deal i'd do for sure! if we acquired another RD in another trade and signed a RD UFA like Demers, then those 3 RD would allow us to send Fayne on his way and we can move Sekera back to the left side to take Davidson's place. no lose here.

I think that's a pretty good hockey deal, I'm not a fan of moving up though.

 

[Zman5778]

So much for that pipe dream

 

[Zman5778]

Davidson and #4 for Girgensons, Pysyk and #8 is a deal i'd do for sure!

That's a deal I make as a "secondary" deal after having secured a legit LHD to play in our top 4.

Problem is, Girgensons, Pysyk and 8 are our best chips along with our 2017 1st to acquire said LHD......

 

[haseoke39]

Oh hey, my favorite topic, Lindholm offersheets.

Just to reiterate, I'm on the bandwagon for $8Mx5 years.

Still low enough to not be insane.

Just high enough that they might not match.

I don't want to speak in absolutes, but I think they definitely match at $7M. Almost definitely match at $7.5. At $8, I think they're at least on the fence.

Jame, IMO, offering $6.5M AAV gets you a big 'thanks!'

 

[Jame]

Davidson and #4 for Girgensons, Pysyk and #8 is a deal i'd do for sure! if we acquired another RD in another trade and signed a RD UFA like Demers, then those 3 RD would allow us to send Fayne on his way and we can move Sekera back to the left side to take Davidson's place. no lose here.

So that's pretty well balanced... nice job.

Davidson / Pysyk is pretty even... Pysyk might have a bit more perceived value, but Davidson being a lefty, and a bit more of a physical/shot blocker/PKer type is probably a better fit in Buffalo.

Girgensons seems a lot to move from 8 to 4, especially without having addressed the top LD hole.

I assume most would see a trade to 4 as an opportunity to get Tkachuk. So we would have basically blown all our "fix LD" currency (8, Girgs, Pysyk) without fixing LD.

We'd be looking at:
Gorges-Risto
McCabe-Bogo
Davidson-Franson

When looking at the trade from this perspective... I pass.

 

[Husko]

Why exactly aren't they trying to move Lundqvist? Dude is 34, he's not seeing the other side of a rebuild. Does he have a NMC he won't waive, or are they just delusional?

 

[Jame]

Oh hey, my favorite topic, Lindholm offersheets.

Just to reiterate, I'm on the bandwagon for $8Mx5 years.

Still low enough to not be insane.

Just high enough that they might not match.

I don't want to speak in absolutes, but I think they definitely match at $7M. Almost definitely match at $7.5. At $8, I think they're at least on the fence.

Jame, IMO, offering $6.5M AAV gets you a big 'thanks!'

McKenzie reporting that they have internal spending issues is a real factor. So, load up in the early years of the deal. I don't think it's as much of a slam dunk when financial factors are real. Load it up with signing bonus.

And once they match an offersheet, they can't trade him for a year.

You say 8 million isn't insane, but it would make him the 2nd highest cap hit defensemen in the league.

6.5 ties him with Petriangelo and Karlsson for the 7th highest cap hit for a defensemen...

 

[haseoke39]

McKenzie reporting that they have internal spending issues is a real factor. So, load up in the early years of the deal. I don't think it's as much of a slam dunk when financial factors are real. Load it up with signing bonus.

And once they match an offersheet, they can't trade him for a year.

You say 8 million isn't insane, but it would make him the 2nd highest cap hit defensemen in the league.

6.5 ties him with Petriangelo and Karlsson for the 7th highest cap hit for a defensemen...

It's high, but I think offersheets fail most of the time because teams usually go substantially higher than they'd otherwise consider going to avoid losing the player for garbage.

Financial considerations may be real, but smart teams prioritize. Lindholm should be their #1 priority right now. They can move other pieces to make room. You have to make the deal a little nuts to get it done, IMO. Sure, $7M would make all the armchair GMs go "wow!! he's not worth that!!" and then one week later, you'd see the team buckle and say "we'll find a way." Clockwork.

In the alternative, I'd be willing to offer #8OA + Kane (50% retained) + Pysyk.

 

[Jame]

It's high, but I think offersheets fail most of the time because teams usually go substantially higher than they'd otherwise consider going to avoid losing the player for garbage.

Financial considerations may be real, but smart teams prioritize. Lindholm should be their #1 priority right now. They can move other pieces to make room. You have to make the deal a little nuts to get it done, IMO. Sure, $7M would make all the armchair GMs go "wow!! he's not worth that!!" and then one week later, you'd see the team buckle and say "we'll find a way." Clockwork.

In the alternative, I'd be willing to offer #8OA + Kane (50% retained) + Pysyk.

I agree. Teams prioritize. I also agree that Anaheim is better off making a trade, than losing an offersheet. But I also believe the offersheet is a component to use appropriately in those negotiations.

Salary is real for Anaheim. You can preach priorities, but an owner has to sign off on shelling out money. Do you think Anaheim's owner would sign off on a deal structured like ROR's? With big, up front money every year?

I think you're being a little lackadaisical with the financials of the situation.

edit... curiously, can you structure a contract so that there are 2 bonus payments before Anaheim could trade him? probably not... armchair CBA help needed?

 

[dkollidas]

It's high, but I think offersheets fail most of the time because teams usually go substantially higher than they'd otherwise consider going to avoid losing the player for garbage.

Financial considerations may be real, but smart teams prioritize. Lindholm should be their #1 priority right now. They can move other pieces to make room. You have to make the deal a little nuts to get it done, IMO. Sure, $7M would make all the armchair GMs go "wow!! he's not worth that!!" and then one week later, you'd see the team buckle and say "we'll find a way." Clockwork.

In the alternative, I'd be willing to offer #8OA + Kane (50% retained) + Pysyk.

Yes but this is also an organization that has a goal to "be conpetitive" and "make the playoffs, then anything can happen". I think they're pretty happy with their current core and will drag along with this group, but they also have a large number of young, quality defensemen besides Lindholm (Fowler, Vatanen, Theodore, Manson, Montour, Larsson, Pettersson) not to mention Stoner and Bieksa, that they may not view Lindholm as so much of s vital piece as fans or other organizations would.
They might be content letting go of the $40M over 7yr defenseman in favor of keeping Fowler Vatanen Theodore Etc on board and use their depth as opposed to having to get rid of those guys bc of the $40M player.

 

[Beerz]

Why exactly aren't they trying to move Lundqvist? Dude is 34, he's not seeing the other side of a rebuild. Does he have a NMC he won't waive, or are they just delusional?

I took the tweet as Outside of Lundy and McD ... everyone is available.

 

[Jame]

year 1: 10 million (1 mil salary + 9 million bonus)
year 2: 8.5 million (1 mil salary + 7.5 million bonus)
year 7: 7 million (1 mil salary + 6 million bonus)
year 4: 5 million salary
year 5: 5 million salary
year 6: 5 million salary
year 7: 5 million salary

If anaheim is really enforcing spending, it's about the salary in the near term, not the cap hit

 

[dotcommunism]

edit... curiously, can you structure a contract so that there are 2 bonus payments before Anaheim could trade him? probably not... armchair CBA help needed?

Should be able to. A matching team cannot trade a player for a calendar year after exercising their right of first refusal. Schedule the 2017-2018 signing bonus to be due right when the league year starts and Lindholm wouldn't be tradeable before then.

I agree that frontloading is a better way to try to force Anaheim not to match than lowering the term and jacking up the AAV.

 

[haseoke39]

year 1: 10 million (1 mil salary + 9 million bonus)
year 2: 8.5 million (1 mil salary + 7.5 million bonus)
year 7: 7 million (1 mil salary + 6 million bonus)
year 4: 5 million salary
year 5: 5 million salary
year 6: 5 million salary
year 7: 5 million salary

If anaheim is really enforcing spending, it's about the salary in the near term, not the cap hit

I like your thinking on raw salary v cap hit. But is 50% still the rule? I thought they tightened that up....

 

[Jame]

Should be able to. A matching team cannot trade a player for a calendar year after exercising their right of first refusal. Schedule the 2017-2018 signing bonus to be due right when the league year starts and Lindholm wouldn't be tradeable before then.

I agree that frontloading is a better way to try to force Anaheim not to match than lowering the term and jacking up the AAV.

And the path begins to reveal itself...

 

[Zman5778]

Boy, I just read the thread in the Trade Rumors board.

Ducks fans are delusional. Lindholm is good, but jeepers they're expecting the moon.

They're going to be sorely disappointed if Lindholm is the one to go.



And they're completely dismissive of an offer sheet.........which if there is going to be one, Lindholm is a prime poaching target to a sheet that has Jame's breakdown.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Boy, I just read the thread in the Trade Rumors board.

Ducks fans are delusional. Lindholm is good, but jeepers they're expecting the moon.

They're going to be sorely disappointed if Lindholm is the one to go.



And they're completely dismissive of an offer sheet.........which if there is going to be one, Lindholm is a prime poaching target to a sheet that has Jame's breakdown.

So would we if it were Ristolainen.

 

[dotcommunism]

I like your thinking on raw salary v cap hit. But is 50% still the rule? I thought they tightened that up....

For a front loaded SPC the only stipulations are 1) the difference between the combined salary & bonuses for any adjacent years cannot exceed 35% of the combined salary & bonuses of the first year, 2) in no year may the combined salary & bonuses be less than 50% of that of the highest year. So with $10M in the first (and highest) year, that means no more than a drop of $3.5M a year and also no less than $5M in any year.

 

[Zman5778]

So would we if it were Ristolainen.

Apples to oranges. We're not actual salary-constrained by our owner.

Anaheim is.


IF we were salary constrained and it looked like Risto was going to go, it'd likely be for less than what most would want.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Apples to oranges. We're not actual salary-constrained by our owner.

Anaheim is.


IF we were salary constrained and it looked like Risto was going to go, it'd likely be for less than what most would want.

The issue isnt really Anaheim, it would be other teams also wanting the player. We have to beat them out for the player.