Roster Speculation Pt. IX

[Jame]

I seem to remember MM being much worse

Probably because we all have a bit of a soft spot for Okposo due to his concussion/health...

But he’s basically the same player Moulson was going in to 2017-18.

 

[Jame]

I'm in the camp Okposo is not done, yet. Put him on the 4th line with Smith and Larsson along with PP2 time. Put a barometer of 35 points on him, if he reaches it then he has value to us. If he misses, you have the Jame Convo with him next year.

He’s an ES offensive black hole... and he’s not even good on the PP.

Any team that’s serious about taking a step forward is NOT tying one of their lines to this anchor:

 

[flashsabre]

Someone get Jame a stiff drink. Habs just signed Jordan Weal for 2 more years.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Revisionist history....

One was expected to be a high end player
One was expected to be a franchise savior

One has disappointed more than the other...

Thinking people used to refer to Sam Reinhart as elite is revisionist now?

 

[Jame]

Someone get Jame a stiff drink. Habs just signed Jordan Weal for 2 more years.

I would’ve paid him double that...

 

[SundherDome]

He’s an ES offensive black hole... and he’s not even good on the PP.

Any team that’s serious about taking a step forward is NOT tying one of their lines to this anchor:

View attachment 221453

I get it but this team is devoid of talent. I don't see Botterill addressing it properly and he isn't going to retire. Put him on the 4th line, where you can Devante Smith-Pelly his minutes and toss him out on PP2 because he has a knack on that half wall..sometimes. Ideally, Botts would sack up and swallow the cost of moving him out.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

He’s an ES offensive black hole... and he’s not even good on the PP.

Any team that’s serious about taking a step forward is NOT tying one of their lines to this anchor:

View attachment 221453

Jame, thanks for finding this. I would say, based on the eye test and watching most of the Sabres game, you can just tell. However, when analytics backs that up...it just proves wtf, happened to this guy.

 

[Jame]

I get it but this team is devoid of talent. I don't see Botterill addressing it properly and he isn't going to retire. Put him on the 4th line, where you can Devante Smith-Pelly his minutes and toss him out on PP2 because he has a knack on that half wall..sometimes. Ideally, Botts would sack up and swallow the cost of moving him out.

I mean, my interest lies in identifying the right move(s)... I’m not that interested in guessing what Botts will fail to do.

The right move is bringing in more NHL forwards, and getting rid of slow players with stone hands.

 

[Djp]

If only we still had Carrier....

 

[Archie Lee]

Hell no.

My plan for Okposo: Respectfully offer him 2 options.

Option 1: Continue to be a leader in the lockerroom, but accept a role as the team's 13-14th forward. When the lineup is healthy, and playing well, you're sitting. When injuries strike, or the PP needs a wake up call, we're going to tap you on the shoulder. If all goes well, you may only play 15-20 games.

Option 2: Rochester. Team Captain. Top line. Lead the league in scoring. Enjoy hockey. Develop our kids. Show them the way.

I get your take. There is no reason that I am aware of for why the Sabres would be unable to do with Okposo what Montreal did with Alzner. Montreal's locker room did not seem adversely impacted by management burying a 10 year vet who had come over in a big free agent deal.

I would still like to see them give him an extended look on line 1 or 2 with at least one player like Eichel or Skinner to see if he can't produce, before he is just relegated to line 4, the bench or waivers.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Probably because we all have a bit of a soft spot for Okposo due to his concussion/health...

But he’s basically the same player Moulson was going in to 2017-18.

Yeah, that probably has a big part in it.

Okposo has better wheels, but I see your point.

 

[Jame]

I get your take. There is no reason that I am aware of for why the Sabres would be unable to do with Okposo what Montreal did with Alzner. Montreal's locker room did not seem adversely impacted by management burying a 10 year vet who had come over in a big free agent deal.

I would still like to see them give him an extended look on line 1 or 2 with at least one player like Eichel or Skinner to see if he can't produce, before he is just relegated to line 4, the bench or waivers.

When you’re trying to win, you don’t try to squeeze the last drop of utility out of a bad player by playing them with your best players...

Montreal was trying to win, so they waived Alzner... they didn’t try to get value out of him by playing him with Carlson.

Buffalo is either trying to win or developing the lines, chemistry, pairings, etc that leads to winning. neither of those endeavors align with playing Okposo with Eichel, etc

 

[tsujimoto74]

Probably because we all have a bit of a soft spot for Okposo due to his concussion/health...

But he’s basically the same player Moulson was going in to 2017-18.

Disagree. Okposo's offense is drying up, but Moulson was a straight up liability any time he was doing anything other than scoring. KO doesn't belong in an NHL top 6, but he can still play a role.

 

[Jame]

Disagree. Okposo's offense is drying up, but Moulson was a straight up liability any time he was doing anything other than scoring. KO doesn't belong in an NHL top 6, but he can still play a role.

Moulson’s last full season:

Okposo last year:

 

[tsujimoto74]

Moulson’s last full season:
View attachment 221669

Okposo last year:
View attachment 221673

Man, I watched the games. Okposo was a solid third cog on the Girgs-Larry line. Moulson was a turd sandwich.
Also, Moulson's usage was pretty different (way more offensive zone starts).

 

[Jame]

Man, I watched the games. Okposo was a solid third cog on the Girgs-Larry line. Moulson was a turd sandwich.
Also, Moulson's usage was pretty different (way more offensive zone starts).

Yea, they finally found a place where they could hide Okposo and limit his liability... we need to aim so much higher next year.

Enough of hiding Okposo with two defensive studs

Enough of hiding Bogo with Dahlin

Enough of these garbage rosters

No more excuses for Botts.

 

[GellMann]

Moulson’s last full season:
View attachment 221669

Okposo last year:
View attachment 221673

I love advanced stats for what they can tell us. But you can't just slap down a chart without talking about it, when that chart suggests that Matt Moulson's corpse in 2016-17 was in the ~96th percentile of all NHL players defensively. Ultimately, that chart tracks on-ice effects for one player of five on a stat with dreadful predictive value, albeit better predictive value than other counting stats.

Matt Moulson was f***ing awful on every inch of the ice in 2016-17, and KO this season was better than him defensively by a large margin, not only that awful, awful season, but any season of Moulson's career. There are so many mitigating factors that explain away their differences in that stupid blue bar (and in doing so explain why its predictive value is so objectively bad).

And I know I'm not addressing the overall argument you're making, but when you lazily throw a chart out there in response to that particular quote, there's not much else to say other than, Jesus Christ there's more to hockey than what that thing says. Unless you really believe that Matt Moulson's defensive prowess in 16-17 is why he had on-ice defensive results in the top 3-4% of all skaters to grace the NHL ice that season. If that's the case, then normally-eye-roll-inducing cliches about the eye test are dead f***ing on.

Now that that's out of the way, I completely agree with you with respect to Kyle and next year's Sabres team.

 

[Husko]

We shouldn’t really describe Okposos production as falling off a cliff, as we often do. Goals scored the last 4 years: 22, 19, 15, 14. It’s a pretty natural decline. Yeah, his assists were down, but that’s only really a function of linemates. He’s a 10-15 goal guy who can put up assists too if played with good players. Hoping for anything more is a fools errand.

 

[Jame]

I love advanced stats for what they can tell us. But you can't just slap down a chart without talking about it, when that chart suggests that Matt Moulson's corpse in 2016-17 was in the ~96th percentile of all NHL players defensively. Ultimately, that chart tracks on-ice effects for one player of five on a stat with dreadful predictive value, albeit better predictive value than other counting stats.

Matt Moulson was ****ing awful on every inch of the ice in 2016-17, and KO this season was better than him defensively by a large margin, not only that awful, awful season, but any season of Moulson's career. There are so many mitigating factors that explain away their differences in that stupid blue bar (and in doing so explain why its predictive value is so objectively bad).

And I know I'm not addressing the overall argument you're making, but when you lazily throw a chart out there in response to that particular quote, there's not much else to say other than, Jesus Christ there's more to hockey than what that thing says. Unless you really believe that Matt Moulson's defensive prowess in 16-17 is why he had on-ice defensive results in the top 3-4% of all skaters to grace the NHL ice that season. If that's the case, then normally-eye-roll-inducing cliches about the eye test are dead ****ing on.

Now that that's out of the way, I completely agree with you with respect to Kyle and next year's Sabres team.

I think maybe you’re confusing 16-17 Moulson (full season) with 17-18 Moulson (waived)?

Regardless, I agree metrics/charts do not tell the entire story, but in this case they should act as a strong directional reminder that Moulson and his 32 points in 2016-17 were useful in a defensive minded system, before his game finally cratered to useless pylon the following year.... and Okposo has a similar trajectory to uselessness.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

We shouldn’t really describe Okposos production as falling off a cliff, as we often do. Goals scored the last 4 years: 22, 19, 15, 14. It’s a pretty natural decline. Yeah, his assists were down, but that’s only really a function of linemates. He’s a 10-15 goal guy who can put up assists too if played with good players. Hoping for anything more is a fools errand.

I think there is always a chance Okposo can score 20.

 

[Team Cozens]

Jake McCabe and a 3rd for Miles Wood.
Size, speed and from the area.

 

[debaser66]

My plan for Okposo: staple him to Eichel's wing for a year.

Okposo had 29 points this year with mostly 3rd and 4th line duty along with just under a couple of minutes of PP time per game, often on PP2. His OZ starts were 48.6%. Compare that to Reinhart's 62.1% for OZ starts.

I thought Okposo looked decent the last few games of the year playing with Skinner and Rodriguez. Say we do resign Skinner. How many points would Okposo put up if he was on the right side for most of the year with Eichel/Skinner as his mates? Reinhart could then play with Mittelstadt and Olofsson (or Olofsson and "insert vet centre name here"). Would Okposo have a shot at 20 goals and 50 points?

On July 1, 2020, after next year, the Sabres owe Okposo a $3 million bonus. Thereafter he is owed just $11 million over his final 3 years. At that point if we retained $1 million and were prepared to part with a small sweetener, then a non-cap team could get a 50 point Okposo for a $5 million cap hit and a $2.66 million actual average salary.

Thompson then moves into that role after a year of dominating the AHL.

Who says they won't start him in the NHL right away again.
They did it for one season despite his struggles.

 

[debaser66]

You are overstating Okposo's decline quite a bit.

He was fine on the 4th line with Larsson-Girgensons. He still is fine on the 2nd PP unit.

The effort for him was always there. The legs aren't.

I certainly don't see him as a 13th forward. Probably 10th forward. He's getting scoring line work when there's an injury, 4th line work when people are healthy.

We have 7 forwards under contract, 3 RFAs (Zemgus/Larsson/Rodrigues). I expect, of that group, 2 forwards will be gone (via trade or buyout). Oloffson and Thompson are both safe bets for the team next year. That math leaves us with 9 forwards.

Thompson has to earn his spot.

 

[Sabreality]

Jake McCabe and a 3rd for Miles Wood.
Size, speed and from the area.

and NJ does this why? Wood is a very solid piece on a nice deal. McCabe & 3rd doesn't offer a ton of value tbh. I want Josh Anderson too but realize its a pipedream.

dipping into UFA for a guy like Tanev or Acciari is probably more feasible if looking for depth F options with some jam.

still like the Donskoi option too.

 

[Ace]

Man, I watched the games.

Not correctly it seems.

You’re arguing with numbers that don’t have an agenda or bias.