Roster Speculation Pt. IX

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GellMann

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Dec 16, 2014
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Thanks for the answers.

For me, it was when we decided to do what we did to the roster in 2013-14. Imagine if the two drafts were the best case scenario - McDavid/Draisaitl. This team still looks like Edmonton rather than a good one.

There was no reason to expect the franchise to quickly recover from what it did to its depth on purpose. And, just like some people (not me) predicted, it's not fixed half a decade later.
 

SnuggaRUDE

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Apr 5, 2013
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Thanks for the answers.

For me, it was when we decided to do what we did to the roster in 2013-14. Imagine if the two drafts were the best case scenario - McDavid/Draisaitl. This team still looks like Edmonton rather than a good one.

There was no reason to expect the franchise to quickly recover from what it did to its depth on purpose. And, just like some people (not me) predicted, it's not fixed half a decade later.

It's not one single thing. They've taken a lot of chances, and not much has broken their way, Dahlin aside.
 
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Chainshot

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It's not one single thing. They've taken a lot of chances, and not much has broken their way, Dahlin aside.

It’s kind of amazing that outside of those ping-pong balls, almost nothing has broken their way for years. They’ve had so many places where they fallen down from the late 90s on. These things seem to compound themselves as lost opportunities to find or retain or acquire talent have slipped by. They’ve bled talent and had a block of time where they were not particularly good at drafting nor are they at the top choice for UDFA. Their margin for error has become so slim as to essentially be nonexistent. They can’t afford to mess up draft picks. They can’t afford to make a mistake with a prospect. And there is so very little positive coming out of the mouthes of ex-players... It does make me wonder how much of a Sisiphian task this is. Will they fix one area or maybe two and he laid low by the others that they haven’t been able to bring attention to? It’s a conundrum that’s for sure.
 

SnuggaRUDE

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It’s kind of amazing that outside of those ping-pong balls, almost nothing has broken their way for years. They’ve had so many places where they fallen down from the late 90s on. These things seem to compound themselves as lost opportunities to find or retain or acquire talent have slipped by. They’ve bled talent and had a block of time where they were not particularly good at drafting nor are they at the top choice for UDFA. Their margin for error has become so slim as to essentially be nonexistent. They can’t afford to mess up draft picks. They can’t afford to make a mistake with a prospect. And there is so very little positive coming out of the mouthes of ex-players... It does make me wonder how much of a Sisiphian task this is. Will they fix one area or maybe two and he laid low by the others that they haven’t been able to bring attention to? It’s a conundrum that’s for sure.

Weren't they pretty good in the late 90s and 2000's? Part of the issue is a matter of perception, all actions/move are always judged with the maximal outcome being the 'expected' value. Any hiccup is typically seen as a disaster. That's not unique to hockey, re: football, or Buffalo, try Boston sports media for a chuckle sometime.

The salary cap and ELC structure seem to calcify the league in a way that was unanticipated. Teams are going to be range bound longer than we're used to. Going from a 20 team league to a 32 team league will also exacerbate this. For much of its existence hockey has let almost 66% of teams into the playoffs. Now we're down to 50%. They'll hit a string of luck at some point, and we'll anoint whoever is in charge at that time as brilliant.

Does Buffalo have enough talent to compete? If not then is it time to restructure the talent? If they do, what's holding them back?
 

Jame

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Those are standard deviation charts. Last year it shows Eichel as more of an impact player than Reinhart. 1.5 sigma - .9 sigma =\= .6 sigma. The magnitude of Eichels OGx accounting for DGx is better than Reinharts.

So about 1 million per additional 0.1 Sigma...
 

SnuggaRUDE

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So about 1 million per additional 0.1 Sigma...

My point is that Reinhart and Eichel aren't producing in the way people would have been happy burning down a team for. If you'd like to make it about cap efficiency that's a vastly different discussion. Last year Reinhart was more cap efficient.
 

Jame

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My point is that Reinhart and Eichel aren't producing in the way people would have been happy burning down a team for. If you'd like to make it about cap efficiency that's a vastly different discussion. Last year Reinhart was more cap efficient.

They didn’t burn down the team for Reinhart, the burnt it down for McEichel... given the (smaller than many assume) gap between their performance, it’s hard to give validity to your statement that Reinhart has been MORE disappointing than Eichel.
 

SnuggaRUDE

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They didn’t burn down the team for Reinhart, the burnt it down for McEichel... given the (smaller than many assume) gap between their performance, it’s hard to give validity to your statement that Reinhart has been MORE disappointing than Eichel.

It felt at the time like the team was expecting to get a premium player out of the 2014 draft. A player who would be important when matching the Buffalo rebuild to the Toronto rebuild. They got a good one, but it's hard to say Reinhart is one of the more exciting #2 picks of the cap era. If I'm the only person who remembers future forecasts of Reinhart being a star talent in his own right leading a line behind Eichel I'll shut up.

In 2014 there was a very real chance Buffalo wouldn't get a McEichel; posters were discussing how the team would move foward with Samson + ?. Since then Reinhart has come to represent a Shibboleth for some.
 

Chainshot

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Weren't they pretty good in the late 90s and 2000's? Part of the issue is a matter of perception, all actions/move are always judged with the maximal outcome being the 'expected' value. Any hiccup is typically seen as a disaster. That's not unique to hockey, re: football, or Buffalo, try Boston sports media for a chuckle sometime.

The salary cap and ELC structure seem to calcify the league in a way that was unanticipated. Teams are going to be range bound longer than we're used to. Going from a 20 team league to a 32 team league will also exacerbate this. For much of its existence hockey has let almost 66% of teams into the playoffs. Now we're down to 50%. They'll hit a string of luck at some point, and we'll anoint whoever is in charge at that time as brilliant.

Does Buffalo have enough talent to compete? If not then is it time to restructure the talent? If they do, what's holding them back?

That they were good at the time doesn't mean that they didn't start bleeding their best talent as the ownership and management factors impacted the on-ice product. The Peca holdout and eventual trade did not work out for the team both in terms of the personnel received and the factor on Hasek's departure. Hasek's departure was the next, where they were backed into a corner and got pennies on the dollar. That's the sort of talent bleed I was talking about -- they deal good players over multiple regimes and haven't recouped the value well, be it who they got or who they picked. Toss in their struggles at the draft table to find, draft, and then sign talent that could one day help them on the ice. The cycles of their struggles seem to coincide at least anecdotally with draft shortfalls 6-8 years prior. Even now, there aren't any 26-28 year olds on this team (even if they had survived the tank) because the early 2010 drafts failed to deliver value.
 

Husko

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That they were good at the time doesn't mean that they didn't start bleeding their best talent as the ownership and management factors impacted the on-ice product. The Peca holdout and eventual trade did not work out for the team both in terms of the personnel received and the factor on Hasek's departure. Hasek's departure was the next, where they were backed into a corner and got pennies on the dollar. That's the sort of talent bleed I was talking about -- they deal good players over multiple regimes and haven't recouped the value well, be it who they got or who they picked. Toss in their struggles at the draft table to find, draft, and then sign talent that could one day help them on the ice. The cycles of their struggles seem to coincide at least anecdotally with draft shortfalls 6-8 years prior. Even now, there aren't any 26-28 year olds on this team (even if they had survived the tank) because the early 2010 drafts failed to deliver value.
Their drafting actually wasn't horrendous those few years. From 2008-2013 they drafted Myers, Ennis, Kassian, McNabb, Foligno, Pysyk, Armia, Girgensons, McCabe, Risto, Zadorov, Compher, and Petersen. 2 NHL players per draft isn't in the disgustingly bad box. It's sort of bare minimum of what you need to survive. But the problem is, as you alluded, when you're just a healthy mediocre, you have such a razor thin margin of error. Myers, Kassian, McNabb, Pysyk, Armia, Zadorov, and Compher were all pissed away as assets one way or another. Others like McCabe and Girgensons may have panned out, but saw their development massively stall when they go to the pros. Ennis is probably the asset we did the best on, in terms of him being a top 6 forward here and netting us what looked like a decent return in trade, but even that is looking sucktastic now. Le sigh.
 

Endless Ike

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We would have a lot more room for error if we stopped signing up for terrible contracts. I don’t think any team could recover from paying $21 million collectively to Moulson, Pominville, Bogosian and Okposo.

How many years does Okposo spend in the AHL at the tail-end of his contract?
 

sabremike

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We would have a lot more room for error if we stopped signing up for terrible contracts. I don’t think any team could recover from paying $21 million collectively to Moulson, Pominville, Bogosian and Okposo.

How many years does Okposo spend in the AHL at the tail-end of his contract?
None, he will be amnestied after the lockout next offseason ends.
 

Chainshot

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From Lance Lysowski's Mailbag
Lance Lysowski's Sabres mailbag: Why hire a retread coach?

Mike asks: How does Zach Bogosian's hip surgery affect the offseason roster construction plan for Botterill?

LL: A source told me there are no concerns that Bogosian's injury could linger into next season. However, the Sabres will monitor his progress throughout the offseason to gauge how much time he will miss since he is one of only four right-handed NHL defensemen under contract next season.

Does this influence their desire to move Risto over the summer? It would be even more minutes to Montour, which if they were watching during RR's absence, Montour handled about as well as Ristolainen does. I just want Bogo gone. Always hurt, always having to make allowances for him being in or out of the lineup. One brief stretch of good defensive play right after he was acquired does not make up for years of ineptitude.
 

sabremike

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I really hope not. What a dysfunctional league.
Why would you not want us to be able to get rid of his long term cap hit? The amnesty buyouts are the one thing both the owners and players want.

OK think you are referring to the idea of not hoping for a lockout. If they can reach an agreement before then and we can disappear a cap albatross that would be swell.
 

Husko

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Does this influence their desire to move Risto over the summer? It would be even more minutes to Montour, which if they were watching during RR's absence, Montour handled about as well as Ristolainen does. I just want Bogo gone. Always hurt, always having to make allowances for him being in or out of the lineup. One brief stretch of good defensive play right after he was acquired does not make up for years of ineptitude.
If they need his cap space, I'd be all aboard a buyout. If a cap floor team wants the contract, they can have him for free. If we can't/won't get rid of him, he should start the year in Rochester. Him on the team is just a nuisance.
 

SnuggaRUDE

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Does this influence their desire to move Risto over the summer? It would be even more minutes to Montour, which if they were watching during RR's absence, Montour handled about as well as Ristolainen does. I just want Bogo gone. Always hurt, always having to make allowances for him being in or out of the lineup. One brief stretch of good defensive play right after he was acquired does not make up for years of ineptitude.

He's here for one more year. I think we all need to square with that. If Bogo made $2M a year we'd be falling over ourselves about what a standup guy he is, and wishing he was injured less. After next year he's out, and the WPG trade will be an unpleasant memory.
 

Chainshot

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If they need his cap space, I'd be all aboard a buyout. If a cap floor team wants the contract, they can have him for free. If we can't/won't get rid of him, he should start the year in Rochester. Him on the team is just a nuisance.

That's where I have been at since he got stapled to Dahlin's side and yet his ability to do anything productive continued to be flatline. In the pro column, Jack and he are apparently "close". He's a good guy off the ice. But his contributions to the winning and losing of hockey games is much more on the "L" side of the shop. He's not good in his own zone. His ability to skate the puck out of danger has never flourished, even when it seemed like he would be the guy who should thrive in Housley's Nashville d-system... which we never really got. His penchant for ill-timed turnovers, bad pinches, or hits that hang his partner out to dry on an odd-man rush are almost as infuriating as his inability to stay healthy, even with a marked decline in the physical aspects of his game.

He seems like someone who they could retain and get a better hockey return -- someone out there is going to still think he's the weight room animal who rocked his combine. GM's are funny that way. Holding him to the deadline, do they get a B-level prospect and a early mid-rounder? Maybe even a 2nd to go along with a non-prime prospect asset?

Or just cut the losses now? I'm as torn as his labrums.
 

Husko

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He's here for one more year. I think we all need to square with that. If Bogo made $2M a year we'd be falling over ourselves about what a standup guy he is, and wishing he was injured less. After next year he's out, and the WPG trade will be an unpleasant memory.
My problem with him isn't the money, it's the bind he puts us in on lineup construction. Bogosian is, for all intents and purposes, a low end pucking moving D that can be fine on a 3rd pairing in a protected role. Fine. Player's like that have excelled in the right role before. So we just have to design a lineup with a protected third pairing. And that's the problem. Our top 4 is all puck movers. It has to be. Our 4 best defenseman are all puck movers that aren't particularly good in their own zone. So what that means is that our 3rd pairing needs to be a defensive, tough matchups pairing. It just has to be. But there's Bogo, needing to be on the 3rd pairing, taking up a roster spot. And that's how he sinks us. He's a barrier to a properly consturcted D-corp given who the rest of our D are.
 

Chainshot

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He's here for one more year. I think we all need to square with that. If Bogo made $2M a year we'd be falling over ourselves about what a standup guy he is, and wishing he was injured less. After next year he's out, and the WPG trade will be an unpleasant memory.

He likely has value at a third to half retention on his salary that would drive a decent return as a hockey trade. If he can get healthy.
 

Husko

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That's where I have been at since he got stapled to Dahlin's side and yet his ability to do anything productive continued to be flatline. In the pro column, Jack and he are apparently "close". He's a good guy off the ice. But his contributions to the winning and losing of hockey games is much more on the "L" side of the shop. He's not good in his own zone. His ability to skate the puck out of danger has never flourished, even when it seemed like he would be the guy who should thrive in Housley's Nashville d-system... which we never really got. His penchant for ill-timed turnovers, bad pinches, or hits that hang his partner out to dry on an odd-man rush are almost as infuriating as his inability to stay healthy, even with a marked decline in the physical aspects of his game.

He seems like someone who they could retain and get a better hockey return -- someone out there is going to still think he's the weight room animal who rocked his combine. GM's are funny that way. Holding him to the deadline, do they get a B-level prospect and a early mid-rounder? Maybe even a 2nd to go along with a non-prime prospect asset?

Or just cut the losses now? I'm as torn as his labrums.
I really can't see anyone trading anything for him now that he's hurt again.
 

Jame

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It felt at the time like the team was expecting to get a premium player out of the 2014 draft. A player who would be important when matching the Buffalo rebuild to the Toronto rebuild. They got a good one, but it's hard to say Reinhart is one of the more exciting #2 picks of the cap era. If I'm the only person who remembers future forecasts of Reinhart being a star talent in his own right leading a line behind Eichel I'll shut up.

In 2014 there was a very real chance Buffalo wouldn't get a McEichel; posters were discussing how the team would move foward with Samson + ?. Since then Reinhart has come to represent a Shibboleth for some.

Revisionist history....

One was expected to be a high end player
One was expected to be a franchise savior

One has disappointed more than the other...
 

Doug Prishpreed

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We would have a lot more room for error if we stopped signing up for terrible contracts. I don’t think any team could recover from paying $21 million collectively to Moulson, Pominville, Bogosian and Okposo.

How many years does Okposo spend in the AHL at the tail-end of his contract?

Every team has millions tied up in players they don’t want anymore. The difference is, other GMs seem to have more success finding ways to mitigate those contracts while buffalo doesn’t even seem to try. Besides Moulson.
 
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