Roster Speculation part XXIII

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Sabresfansince1980

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The sabres were 16th in GA last year and added kulikov. That doesn't really jive with the idea that they have the worst defense in the league.

Bylsma had them play an extremely conservative game to minimize their faults. He chose to reduce GA at the expense of offense. The D-corps has to be better for Bylsma to change that up.

I expect Kulikov to make a semi-big difference by allowing Gorges and McCabe to play down to their level (ok close to it). But Risto has to progress (probably), Bogosian has to stay healthy (doubtful), Franson has to be better (likely, but even "better" for him is not that good), and Nelson has to be able to step up and fill in for Bogo when he's hurt and Franson when he stinks. I think Nelson can do that, but not at a net improvement.

So...I'm not that impressed with the D-corps either, but there should be a moderate improvement. I still wanted two significant additions, not just Kulikov, but that ship has probably sailed by now.
 

Zip15

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If Bogosian can't go and Risto isn't signed, what the hell is our defense?

Franson on the top pair? If not, who plays their off-side? Is Gorges or McCabe on their off side going to be that much of an improvement?

This team....

Murray has done a poor job building NHL roster depth this summer. They're one injury on the left side from playing Justin Falk in the top-6. If Bogo is injured and Risto unsigned, the defense could look like this:

McCabe-Kulikov
Gorges-Franson
Falk-Nelson

:laugh: :cry:

I'm bracing for the Carlo Colaiacovo signing any day now.
 

Zip15

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The optimist in me wants to think this issue is so obvious that it has to mean TM is waiting on an almost certain deal to add a top-four guy and move Nelson down to Roch.

I've wondered if Russell hasn't signed yet because Buffalo has set forth parameters of a deal that he deems preferable to other offers, but Buffalo can't do it until they have Risto signed. I'm no Russell fan, but he may be signed for something reasonable at this late stage.
 

struckbyaparkedcar

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Russell as a top four guy on a team really leveraging that unit vs a #5 and PK dude is a world of difference in terms of how you'll feel about him.

I muchmuchmuch prefer his skillset to Franson's.
 

DJN21

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The fact that getting Russell is this big of a deal should point out how weak our defense really is.

That being said I think mccabe takes a big step this year and makes us okay with playing him on our second pairing. But preferably wr would have added someone of higher quality than Russell anyways...I digress.
 

Dreakon13

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For what it's worth, I think most teams would be in rough shape if their top three D were all out at the same time (Risto-contract, Bogo/Kuli-nursing injuries). It'd be nice if the Sabres had one or two more serviceable backup plans... but that's just an unfortunate situation all around.

EDIT: I think this year will be one where we just barely get by without lacking D depth coming back to bite us. I think any moves we make this year, next offseason and in the 2017 draft will be very defense-centric... at least it should be.
 
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brian_griffin

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I'm trying to find teams that have a worse defense than Buffalo and can only come up with Toronto. Do we have the second worse D in the league? I'm not as high on McCabe as many are, so maybe that's the reason, but I think the idea of this team being above average is a joke. We have one high quality D and zero depth. If Risto goes down, this is once again a lottery team.

As you can tell I'm really pissed that we didn't do more to address defensive depth in the offseason. :laugh: I'm looking for someone to talk me down.
Opening statement: No objective basis, so subjective reasoning assumed.
I didn't know that's what I said. What I DO know that I said was that our top 6, taken together as a group, are worse than any other team besides Toronto. Same goes for our defensive depth. I'm begging to be proven otherwise - do you have some good examples?
Repeated without objective basis, so subjective reasoning assumed.
Based on what I saw on the ice last year. Maybe I'm a poor judge of quality, and they're great...I certainly don't think so but I'd be relieved to be proven wrong. We had a very (very) crappy D and I don't think McCabe and Nelson will be our saviors. I like Kulikov but is he enough of an upgrade?
First: Subjective basis confirmed.
Second: Again, no objective basis...
I think every single one of them are below-average at the position and responsibility level they are being asked to play. I guess we'll find out in a few weeks, but I think sabres fans are blindly optimistic with this defensive group. Plus, if one of them goes down, there are no replacements.
Might have avoided the vitriol if you had opened with this reason why you believed what you believed. This view can at least be debated.

Below-average in position and responsibility yields a below-average defense. It doesn't yield a near-NHL-worst defense.

Whether Risto is either below or meets the requirements for a #1 is moot, as that will be his role, and the Sabres would be foolish to spend the assets required to obtain someone better than Risto. Regardless of what he signs for, he's cost-cotnrolled for 5 more years. So, objectively, Risto's slot can't be upgraded, unless it's a sign and trade.

Kulikov as #2. Struckbyaparkedcar has provided objective evidence previously that Kulikov posts Fowler-like numbers, and at less cost. Therefore, I don't believe BUF can upgrade the #2 slot, and again, would be foolish to spend the assets to do so.

Bogosian as #3. McCabe as #4. I'm not seeing that pairing as below-average in role and responsibility vs. the entire NHL. As compared to some teams, sure.

Gorges as #5. Nelson / Franson as #6. Gorges doesn't seem out of place in role or ability on the bottom pair. Nelson / Franson could be upgraded, but again, at what incremental cost? BUF is committed to Nelson's development in either ROC or BUF, whether he is in the Sabres future plans, or used as trade piece. Franson will be gone after this season (and likely at the deadline if the Sabres implode this season, which I am not expecting).

After taking a glance at defensive depth charts, I'd say Arizona, Boston, Edmonton, Detroit, New Jersey, Toronto, Vancouver, Carolina, and Philly are all close to or behind Buffalo.

Carolina, Philly, Toronto, and Edmonton all have good young players with a lot of room to grow, but I think the rest are not very good.

Cannot take anyone seriously who thinks Arizona, Carolina, or Philly have worse defensive depth than us. I would trade Defense with them in a heartbeat.
Ad hominem instead of asking CC to clarify or defend his view.

Doug, you're grossly underestimating the impact of the Kulikov addition. Assuming he pairs with Risto, he's pushing Gorges down the depth chart and into a lesser role. That alone is a significant change to the backend.

Yes, they aren't deep. They don't have many top-four options outside of the starting group and an injury to any of Kulikov, Risto, McCabe or Bogo would be tough to stomach. But this isn't the trainwreck you seem to think it is (on paper at least).

It's probably a bottom-10 defense, but i dont think it will hinder the team's ability to progress overall.
Thanks for this rational response. I share this view.

"What you saw last year" only matters if Ristolainen continues to be leveraged as a risk mitigator vs his contemporaries.
EXACTLY!

Remember all of the main board threads about how great our defense was going to be when we traded for Regher and singed Ehrhoff? Top 3 defense baby!
Non-sequitir. You're bringing the Chewbacca defense.

0330chewbacca.jpg



If Bogosian can't go and Risto isn't signed, what the hell is our defense?

Franson on the top pair? If not, who plays their off-side? Is Gorges or McCabe on their off side going to be that much of an improvement?

This team....
What if Kulikov spontaneously combusts?
What if Nelson is abducted by aliens?

I'd bet the vast majority of Sabres fans (including me) prefer another depth signing or trade upgrade. It doesn't need to happen today. It didn't need to happen already. There is some merit to allowing things to unfold.

1. Sign Risto so you know what your budget is this year, and in future.
2. Get longer looks at Nelson and Guhle so you can better project their future development / value.
3. See what d-men kick loose from other teams closer to opening day, and into the season.
4. Wait for injuries at forward to playoff-likely teams with better defensive depth.
5. Determine what the BUF organizational young cost-controlled forward depth looks like, and what forward could be traded for a young cost-controlled d-man.
6. Determine what Moulson still has in the tank.
7. Decide whether to troll / keep trolling Kane to see if anyone will bite, or whether you pull the line in until next season.
 

Sabretooth

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Bylsma had them play an extremely conservative game to minimize their faults. He chose to reduce GA at the expense of offense. The D-corps has to be better for Bylsma to change that up.

I don't buy that to the extent that you're making it out. It all comes down to goal differential and the sabres were -16 in differential not including shootouts (only 3 non-playoff teams had a better differential). Of every team that were worse in both GA and better in GF than the sabres by at least 10 in each stat, the sabres had a better goal differential than all but 1 (ottawa, who was 9th in GF). A team with DFL worst in the league defense can't just decide to "play conservative" to end up with better results (goal diff) than teams that are supposedly better defensively. If anything, playing conservatively/defensively is playing to your strengths if it means better goal differential than playing fast and loose.

Not saying we're good, better than average defensively. But the results do not support that we're DFL worst. We were a bubble, bubble team last year, and with okposo, kulikov, and growth from sam/jack/risto/etc it's hard to see us worse than middle of the pack this year barring injuries or regressions. Teams that are DFL worst defensively can't be middle of the pack if they're also terrible offensively, and until proven otherwise we're still a much worse offensive team than defensive. Yet still middling, essentially, if not better this year who knows. Not close to worst in the league defensively.
 

Doug Prishpreed

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Bylsma had them play an extremely conservative game to minimize their faults. He chose to reduce GA at the expense of offense. The D-corps has to be better for Bylsma to change that up.

I expect Kulikov to make a semi-big difference by allowing Gorges and McCabe to play down to their level (ok close to it). But Risto has to progress (probably), Bogosian has to stay healthy (doubtful), Franson has to be better (likely, but even "better" for him is not that good), and Nelson has to be able to step up and fill in for Bogo when he's hurt and Franson when he stinks. I think Nelson can do that, but not at a net improvement.

So...I'm not that impressed with the D-corps either, but there should be a moderate improvement. I still wanted two significant additions, not just Kulikov, but that ship has probably sailed by now.

Thank you for summarizing my thoughts on our defense so succinctly :) Pretty much nailed it on every point as far as I'm concerned.

I would only add that I don't blame TM for not doing more to bolster the D since I don't think he had many realistic opportunities, if he even had any at all.
 

Sabresfansince1980

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I don't buy that to the extent that you're making it out...

Not saying we're good, better than average defensively. But the results do not support that we're DFL worst...

I never said Buffalo was that bad defensively. I think their D-corps is around 22-27 in the league, but a conservative style helped to minimize the GA. I hope with Kulikov that they can jump to around 17-22 and maybe open it up some more for more GF. That still leaves them at least one solid top-four guy away from a SC contending group.
 

dkollidas

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Nov 18, 2010
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Kane-O'Reilly-Okposo
Ennis-Eichel-Reinhart
Foligno-Larsson-Gionta
Girgensons-Grant-Fasching
Ex's: Moulson, Deslauriers
???
 

Der Jaeger

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Feb 14, 2009
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Eichel winger thoughts:

Michael likes to drift left. Once he gets left, he either makes the neat backhand pass to a trailing winger (as he did with Nylander), pivots to pass back across the ice, or shoots.

Not to get too wrapped up in wingers, sides, and handedness, but I think he might do well with both wingers playing their off hand.

A right handed LW is in better position to accept and shoot with a better angle off the drop pass. A left handed RW is in the same type of position if Eichel centers the puck.

Nylander - Eichel - Girgensons
Fasching - Eichel - Girgensons
Fasching - Eichel - Ennis

Thoughts?
 

brian_griffin

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Eichel winger thoughts:

Michael likes to drift left. Once he gets left, he either makes the neat backhand pass to a trailing winger (as he did with Nylander), pivots to pass back across the ice, or shoots.

Not to get too wrapped up in wingers, sides, and handedness, but I think he might do well with both wingers playing their off hand.

A right handed LW is in better position to accept and shoot with a better angle off the drop pass. A left handed RW is in the same type of position if Eichel centers the puck.

Nylander - Eichel - Girgensons
Fasching - Eichel - Girgensons
Fasching - Eichel - Ennis

Thoughts?

I agree that eichel's preference is to move left I've rarely seen him move right, regardless of whether his skating line is down the middle or shaded left.

An offhand shot as a LW might be worth trying. Ennis? Can reinhart handle that much D responsibility?
 

Der Jaeger

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I agree that eichel's preference is to move left I've rarely seen him move right, regardless of whether his skating line is down the middle or shaded left.

An offhand shot as a LW might be worth trying. Ennis? Can reinhart handle that much D responsibility?

I'd move Reinhart off Eichel's line in this scenario.

Watching some highlight videos. Eichel made some sweet feeds to O'Reilly late in the season, with O'Reilly scoring from the right side. O'Reilly scored a bit in Colorado drifting right. Maybe pair him with Eichel on RW?

Fasching - Eichel - O'Reilly
?
 

dkollidas

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Nov 18, 2010
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Eichel winger thoughts:

Michael likes to drift left. Once he gets left, he either makes the neat backhand pass to a trailing winger (as he did with Nylander), pivots to pass back across the ice, or shoots.

Not to get too wrapped up in wingers, sides, and handedness, but I think he might do well with both wingers playing their off hand.

A right handed LW is in better position to accept and shoot with a better angle off the drop pass. A left handed RW is in the same type of position if Eichel centers the puck.

Nylander - Eichel - Girgensons
Fasching - Eichel - Girgensons
Fasching - Eichel - Ennis

Thoughts?

I like Fasching-Eichel-Girgensons...
Both play a simple style game, are physical, and skate well enough to keep up with Eichel.
It would also allow for some really interesting options throughout the rest of the lineup...

Ennis/Kane-O'Reilly-Okposo
Fasching-Eichel-Girgensons
Ennis/Kane-Reinhart/Grant-Moulson/Reinhart/Grant
Foligno-Larsson-Gionta
 

NotABadPeriod

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Ennis-ROR-Okposo
Girgensons-Eichel-Reinhart
Kane-Larsson-Gionta
Foligno-Grant-Moulson/Deslauriers

I think this gives the best balance to the lineup, though I'm not sure I like Ennis on that top line.
 

Aapo

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Girgensons has only been tested at centre through the whole camp so far. I wonder if Bylsma is set on playing him there? If so, it would send Grant to the AHL and open a spot for Fasching.
 
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Sabresfansince1980

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Has anyone heard anything definitive about whether they're going with 13 or 14 FWs? I keep seeing posts here about the 13th guy as if he's the last FW on the roster, but I've been assuming we'd go with 14 this season.
 

1972

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Murray has done a poor job building NHL roster depth this summer. They're one injury on the left side from playing Justin Falk in the top-6. If Bogo is injured and Risto unsigned, the defense could look like this:

McCabe-Kulikov
Gorges-Franson
Falk-Nelson

:laugh: :cry:

I'm bracing for the Carlo Colaiacovo signing any day now.

Underwhelming summer by Murray to say the least.
 

brian_griffin

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Underwhelming summer by Murray to say the least.

I think the Okposo signing and Kulikov trade are huge in terms of what they enable for the remainder of the forwards and defense.

To the pessimist, the glass is half empty.
To the optimist, the glass is half full.
To the engineer, there is twice as much glass as needed for the fluid inside.
 

Jim Bob

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Has anyone heard anything definitive about whether they're going with 13 or 14 FWs? I keep seeing posts here about the 13th guy as if he's the last FW on the roster, but I've been assuming we'd go with 14 this season.

Since he's talked about Falk and Nelson battling for the 7th D slot, I was assuming it would be 13 F 7 D 2 G.
 
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