Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 5/ Post-free agency edition

[jBuds]

99% agree with this. He works out like crazy and is always in the gym during the summertime. He just has some unfortunate injuries that are a result of his style of play.

I’m giving you a 99% because it’s spelled Massena. However, it would have been lower, but there is a real good chance you were just making a pun. Massena is definitely a mess.

Intentional or not, thanks for the laugh!

1994! 1994! 1994! In overtime!

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Proposal from a Nashville fan in trade board - Ryan Ellis, Craig Smith, 1st for Reinhart & Bogosian.

Now I know the idea of trading Sam is blasphemy to some here & its unlikely to ever happen... But for me this proposal gets it done. Completes the top 4, we lose Bogo & add another 1st...

 

[Aladyyn]

Proposal from a Nashville fan in trade board - Ryan Ellis, Craig Smith, 1st for Reinhart & Bogosian.

Now I know the idea of trading Sam is blasphemy to some here & its unlikely to ever happen... But for me this proposal gets it done. Completes the top 4, we lose Bogo & add another 1st...

Count me in.

 

[Jim Bob]

Proposal from a Nashville fan in trade board - Ryan Ellis, Craig Smith, 1st for Reinhart & Bogosian.

Now I know the idea of trading Sam is blasphemy to some here & its unlikely to ever happen... But for me this proposal gets it done. Completes the top 4, we lose Bogo & add another 1st...

Ellis is a UFA next summer.

No thanks.

Getting Skinner for a bunch of non-premium assets is one thing. Giving up Reinhart for a UFA-to-be is another thing entirely.

 

[Aladyyn]

Ellis is a UFA next summer.

No thanks.

Getting Skinner for a bunch of non-premium assets is one thing. Giving up Reinhart for a UFA-to-be is another thing entirely.

Ryan Ellis is amazing though.

 

[Jim Bob]

Ryan Ellis is amazing though.

I still don't want to trade a core young player to get him when he's one year away from UFA.

And he's been so vastly underpaid throughout his career, he is a guy that will want a major deal to re-sign.

 

[Aladyyn]

I still don't want to trade a core young player to get him when he's one year away from UFA.

And he's been so vastly underpaid throughout his career, he is a guy that will want a major deal to re-sign.

And I still think we come out on top if we pay him the big bucks. Ellis is that good.

 

[Jim Bob]

And I still think we come out on top if we pay him the big bucks. Ellis is that good.

Paying big money for a guy approaching 30yo is not a formula for success.

Given his injury history and his size, I would not want to commit to him for big money and a long term.

 

[OkimLom]

And I still think we come out on top if we pay him the big bucks. Ellis is that good.

Then get him in UFA.

How do you feel about the other pieces by the way?

 

[GellMann]

That trade is laughable. Reinhart doesn't get us Ellis alone, and then Smith + 1st for Bogosian? Bogosian has negative value.

 

[Jame]

That trade is laughable. Reinhart doesn't get us Ellis alone, and then Smith + 1st for Bogosian? Bogosian has negative value.

Ellis has 1 year left... he doesn’t net Reinhart

 

[GellMann]

Ellis has 1 year left... he doesn’t net Reinhart

It might be practically true for Sabres fans, but I'd bet my house that the raw value isn't close, in the other direction.

Full disclosure: I live in a crappy apartment I have no feelings towards

 

[joshjull]

We certainly were not forced into doing exactly what we did, and it's not as if we would have been far worse over the last three years by easing Eichel in a little slower.

I will always reject arguments that suggest there was nothing else to be done - they pop up from the ROR trade to the usage of any single player. The Sabres were not destined to do exactly and only what they did.

You're arguing against something I never put forth. Maybe someone else did but it wasn't me. I said we didn't have the same options usage-wise as the Leafs. Not that we had to do exactly what we had done.

Sure, maybe Larsson has to go from facing hard opponents defensively to facing...a few more hard opponents defensively a little more often, but I'm absolutely not convinced that chasing around Crosby with Eichel by season 2 the way we did was required and that the team would have somehow fallen apart and been unable to score otherwise (because that's literally what has happened Eichel's whole career here anyway...) For example, it's not as if Eich's rookie year lit ES scoring on fire. A replacement in that role, even from the mediocre roster we had, could have combined with the bump Jack would get with easier usage to produce the same, with the net result being a Jack more ready to play real hockey against the big boys later on, than still getting shelled as a bottom 10% of the league player defensively supposedly according to articles I haven't paid to subscribe to.

What you're not understanding is Jack was the role the last 3 years. No matter who he centered that was going to be our #1 offensive line and the focus of the opposition. Thats a problem created by lacking enough talent not of usage. There was no practical way to "shelter him" or "ease him in" without a viable 2nd offensive line alternative. Because we had no other offensive line option, teams could go after Jack any way they wanted to. They could use their top defensive guys or go best on best or a combo of the both. They had nothing to worry about from another scoring line making them pay.

Trying to "switch" Jack with another center would change nothing. You're arguing a theoretical fantasy where we just put any other center (Larsson or Girgs) between whoever Jack was centering and the other team keeps focusing on that line. They're not going to because the danger of the line and why they were focusing on it was Jack. Once he moves from that line so does the opposition.

The biggest difference between the Leafs in Mathews rookie year and the Sabres in Jack's rookie year and beyond is the talent up front. Its not usage. The Leafs were able to roll out two equally deadly scoring lines and a very good counter punching matchup line. To state the obvious we haven't had the talent to do that the last 3 years. I know you remember the last 3 years of utterly inept bottom 6 offensive play. None of this means we had to do exactly what we did btw. I just means trying what the Leafs did was not possible.

Nowhere did I argue that the Sabres would have had the success of the Leaves if they had just done this, like the implication seems to be bubbling under the surface of this post.

Nowhere did I argue otherwise. You've attributed a few opinions to me in this post that I don't have.

I absolutely would argue that we'd be in a better spot right now with Jack had we been better about it. I would argue that usage matters more than anything else coaches do, and more than anyone might realize. And I don't think it would have come at great cost any season along the way.

Usage is without question one of the biggest ways a coach can impact his teams performance. But talent is the biggest factor in the usage options a coach has. You can't use two scoring lines to divide the focus of the opposing teams efforts to stop you if you can't actually ice two scoring lines.

Also, I completley agree in general that Dahlin will be instantaneously ready for position as a 4D, and maybe as a 3D, and even a small chance at better - but people were jumping on a guy for suggesting that hey, it'd be cool to bring Dahlin in slowly, and I didn't see anything that merited the mild condescension, so I threw my two cents in.

Fair enough.


Ironically what Jack and Risto have been through isn't likely to be an issue for Mitts/Dahlin because of the Jack/Risto in the lineup.

 

[GellMann]

You're arguing against something I never put forth. Maybe someone else did but it wasn't me. I said we didn't have the same options usage-wise as the Leafs. Not that we had to do exactly what we had done.



What you're not understanding is Jack was the role the last 3 years. No matter who he centered that was going to be our #1 offensive line and the focus of the opposition. Thats a problem created by lacking enough talent not of usage. There was no practical way to "shelter him" or "ease him in" without a viable 2nd offensive line alternative. Because we had no other offensive line option, teams could go after Jack any way they wanted to. They could use their top defensive guys or go best on best or a combo of the both. They had nothing to worry about from another scoring line making them pay.

Trying to "switch" Jack with another center would change nothing. You're arguing a theoretical fantasy where we just put any other center (Larsson or Girgs) between whoever Jack was centering and the other team keeps focusing on that line. They're not going to because the danger of the line and why they were focusing on it was Jack. Once he moves from that line so does the opposition.

The biggest difference between the Leafs in Mathews rookie year and the Sabres in Jack's rookie year and beyond is the talent up front. Its not usage. The Leafs were able to roll out two equally deadly scoring lines and a very good counter punching matchup line. To state the obvious we haven't had the talent to do that the last 3 years. I know you remember the last 3 years of utterly inept bottom 6 offensive play. None of this means we had to do exactly what we did btw. I just means trying what the Leafs did was not possible.


Nowhere did I argue otherwise. You've attributed a few opinions to me in this post that I don't have.



Usage is without question one of the biggest ways a coach can impact his teams performance. But talent is the biggest factor in the usage options a coach has. You can't use two scoring lines to divide the focus of the opposing teams efforts to stop you if you can't actually ice two scoring lines.



Fair enough.


Ironically what Jack and Risto have been through isn't likely to be an issue for Mitts/Dahlin because of the Jack/Risto in the lineup.

I'm just going to nod at this, because my millennial attention span has left this conversation in the dust

 

[TehDoak]

I’d give up 2x 1sts + for Ellis and roll out the big dollars (8x8).

Dahlin-Ellis
Scandella-Risto


That’s a playoff caliber top 4. Will border on elite when Dahlin hits his prime.

 

[Djp]

Proposal from a Nashville fan in trade board - Ryan Ellis, Craig Smith, 1st for Reinhart & Bogosian.

Now I know the idea of trading Sam is blasphemy to some here & its unlikely to ever happen... But for me this proposal gets it done. Completes the top 4, we lose Bogo & add another 1st...

Only if Ellis can be talked to and signed to an extension.

Not trading Reinhart for a rental.

 

[Dingo44]

Getting Dahlin should eliminate any talk about moving Reinhart for a defenseman.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

That is an interesting dynamic. But I wish there was more info to flesh this out.

Pretty shocking stat. Imagine if we could see data for “successful passing percentage” or something like that. Their inability to make/accept passes wasted almost all of those positive possession plays.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I'm all about Ellis, but not until he hits UFA. I'd just hope the Sabres show improvement this season and Ellis likes the idea of playing for Housley.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I think your sarcasm meter is broken. Bogosian has lots of flaws as a player, but literally the only thing that got him paid and drafted is that he is a workout warrior.

I hope the Sabres staff is giving serious consideration the the possibility that Bogosian's workout is a contributing factor to his injury problems. If you're not working out properly (for ex - all strength building, bulking up and no stretch/flexibility exercises), than you're just hurting yourself.

 

[cybresabre]

Pretty shocking stat. Imagine if we could see data for “successful passing percentage” or something like that. Their inability to make/accept passes wasted almost all of those positive possession plays.

All those lousy passes probably inflated our 'dump in' numbers.

 

[sabrebuild]

I hope the Sabres staff is giving serious consideration the the possibility that Bogosian's workout is a contributing factor to his injury problems. If you're not working out properly (for ex - all strength building, bulking up and no stretch/flexibility exercises), than you're just hurting yourself.

Definitely a concern for a guy his size, who likes to bang. If he can’t make it thru 70 games this year, he might just not have the constitution to be a full time nhler.

 

[HaNotsri]

Pretty shocking stat. Imagine if we could see data for “successful passing percentage” or something like that. Their inability to make/accept passes wasted almost all of those positive possession plays.

They actually confused all of our passes with dump ins.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Count me in.

You're literally the last person who I thought would agree to this...

To others:
- Yes Ellis is a great player - he'll be worth what he gets. As Doak alluded to he turns this group into a potentially elite one. I don't care that he is UFA to be you make the deal on the Premise of signing him to an extension
- We lose Bogo & his cap hit for the next 2 years
-We add Smith who is a solid get for the top 6 - no Reinhart but its a small downgrade considering the rest
- We add another first - likely late but with 4 Rd 1 picks it gives the opportunity to make a real splash in what should hopefully be the last draft which we have to focus on instead of playoffs.

In fact with that D - we might even make the playoffs this season...

 

[Jim Bob]

You're literally the last person who I thought would agree to this...

To others:
- Yes Ellis is a great player - he'll be worth what he gets. As Doak alluded to he turns this group into a potentially elite one. I don't care that he is UFA to be you make the deal on the Premise of signing him to an extension
- We lose Bogo & his cap hit for the next 2 years
-We add Smith who is a solid get for the top 6 - no Reinhart but its a small downgrade considering the rest
- We add another first - likely late but with 4 Rd 1 picks it gives the opportunity to make a real splash in what should hopefully be the last draft which we have to focus on instead of playoffs.

In fact with that D - we might even make the playoffs this season...

Ellis is a great 2nd pairing defenseman who has played with 3 other elite NHL D for his entire NHL career.

If you look at TOI/GP for the Preds over the past five years, Ellis is 5th on the list at 20:23.

You aren't getting Ryan Suter like the Wild did if you back up the Brinks truck to give Ellis 8x8 or more.