Roster Speculation, 2018 offseason Part 5/ Post-free agency edition

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brian_griffin

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How many years do we give Reinhart scoring 45-55 points a season before he is just that, a 50-55 point 2nd liner? The other high drafted forwards from his draft class have put up 60 and 70 point seasons. It took Reinhart D+4 and his age 22 season to reach 25g or 50p. Right now he deserves 4 mil or 4.25 per on a bridge. 5------5.25 mil per on a long term deal. Even if he "breaks out" and scores 60-65 points he isn't getting more then 7 mil. I am not giving Reinhart 6-6.25 mil per for 8 years right now just because he may be worth 7 one day. No. He deserves 5 long term right now and I'll bet on another sub 60 point season for Reinhart this year.
@Jame and others rebutted portions of this comparison quite nicely, so I'll just add if Reinhart's numbers are looked at as a percentage of Sabres team total, they look better.
 
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La Cosa Nostra

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3 years from now, I am hoping we secure the following pieces for 50 mil.

Eichel - 10 mil. Already signed, a superstar in the making.

Dahlin-10-11 mil. Assuming he becomes the superstar dman we think he will be, may even be 12.5-13 mil in 3 years if he wins a Norris.

Mittelstadt - 6-7mil. If Mitts is the 65-70 point wizard we expect him to be, that is good value on a 8 year deal. Mitts also has only 2 years left on an ELC so say he comes in this season and puts up 50-55 points as a rookie and we know he will just keep progressing then we can actually sign him for 8 years after technically his rookie season. May be able to keep Mitts AAV lower by signing him sooner.

Skinner- 7 mil. He is a legit 30 goal scorer with speed to burn and has done it with no help. I truly think he has untapped potential in him. He never got the premier first line minutes or got to play with a star ppg center that you would expect a 30 goal guy like Skinner to get. Botts didn't get him as a pure rental, I think Skinner is here long term and is firmly in Botts long term plans.

Reinhart - 5-5.5 mil long term. Reinhart is a solid top 6 winger. On a top team he would be the 4th best forward and that's what he would be here long term. If he can score 25 goals a season for the next 7-8 years I'd be happy. May even have a season or three where he hits or at least flirts with 30 goals and 60 points.

Sheary - 4-4.25 mil. He is a solid second line winger who will chip in 20 goals. He has 2 cups under his resume and is very fast. He has played with elite talent before and is only 26. He is a good option as the last forward or two in the top 6. He may not be a "foundational" piece, but he's a 20 goal player I think we can sign for a good deal. That's why I include him. If we can get him signed for 5/20 that is the type of deal we need to stay competitive. With big $ players like Eichel and Dahlin, you need to find the 20 goal forwards with speed for as little as possibile. I also think his 2 cup wins should not Be discounted. He may not have made a big impact in the cup wins but the fact is he was there and he won two of them. He will tell the kids what to expect in rounds 3 and 4 when we get there.

Risto - 5.4 mil. Signed for 4 more years. Will likely get 6-7 on his next deal. No brainer for our long term 2D.

So for 50 mil, in 3 years from now that would secure us our top 2 centers, 2 first line wingers, a solid 20-25 goal 2nd liner and our top LHD and RHD. 7 of our best players/pieces for $50 mil is very good indeed. I'd be happy if we could get those 7 for only $50 mil. In 3 years the cap will be close to 90 so we can definitely fill in the other 13 spots for 40 mil, especially as the most important and expensive areas (1C,2C,LW1,RW1,LW2, 1D,2D) are already taken care of. The only thing we need to be responsible with his goalie spending and the bottom six/bottom pairing. Can't have any 6 mil Okposo types wasting away on the 3rd or 4th line.
 
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Jim Bob

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If Bogo actually played 82 games this year I think his play would be top 4 caliber by January.
 

Jame

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3 years from now, I am hoping we secure the following pieces for 50 mil.

Eichel - 10 mil. Already signed, a superstar in the making.

Dahlin-10-11 mil. Assuming he becomes the superstar dman we think he will be, may even be 12.5-13 mil in 3 years if he wins a Norris.

I sure hope so....

Mittelstadt - 6-7mil. If Mitts is the 65-70 point wizard we expect him to be, that is good value on a 8 year deal. Mitts also has only 2 years left on an ELC so say he comes in this season and puts up 50-55 points as a rookie and we know he will just keep progressing then we can actually sign him for 8 years after technically his rookie season. May be able to keep Mitts AAV lower by signing him sooner.

You consistently do a very poor job of just looking around...

Leon Draisaitl score 50/50/70 in his first 3 seasons... he got 8.5. You're saying Mittelstadt will do the same, when the cap is higher... and will get significantly less.

It just doesn't make sense.

Skinner- 7 mil. He is a legit 30 goal scorer with speed to burn and has done it with no help. I truly think he has untapped potential in him. He never got the premier first line minutes or got to play with a star ppg center that you would expect a 30 goal guy like Skinner to get. Botts didn't get him as a pure rental, I think Skinner is here long term and is firmly in Botts long term plans.

If he's a legit 30 goal scorer, he's UFA years in his prime, are going to cost OVER 8.0 per.

Older, less productive players were getting 7.0 this offseason.

Reinhart - 5-5.5 mil long term. Reinhart is a solid top 6 winger. On a top team he would be the 4th best forward and that's what he would be here long term. If he can score 25 goals a season for the next 7-8 years I'd be happy. May even have a season or three where he hits or at least flirts with 30 goals and 60 points.

You literally just described Jeff Skinner... it's funny how your takes on skinner/reinhart differ though.

Sheary - 4-4.25 mil. He is a solid second line winger who will chip in 20 goals. He has 2 cups under his resume and is very fast. He has played with elite talent before and is only 26. He is a good option as the last forward or two in the top 6. He may not be a "foundational" piece, but he's a 20 goal player I think we can sign for a good deal. That's why I include him. If we can get him signed for 5/20 that is the type of deal we need to stay competitive. With big $ players like Eichel and Dahlin, you need to find the 20 goal forwards with speed for as little as possibile. I also think his 2 cup wins should not Be discounted. He may not have made a big impact in the cup wins but the fact is he was there and he won two of them. He will tell the kids what to expect in rounds 3 and 4 when we get there.

More delusions.

You're expecting Sheary to score 20 goals and then sign his UFA years in his prime for 5% of the cap... it's nonsense.

Your 5 years / 4.0 per.... is basically a Darren Helm contract (5 yrs / 19.25 / 5.27% of cap in 2016). That's Darren Helm... who has never scored more than 15 goals / 33 points.


Risto - 5.4 mil. Signed for 4 more years. Will likely get 6-7 on his next deal. No brainer for our long term 2D.

I guess you forgot that your scenario is "3 years from now".... so you'll have Risto signed for 1 more year, not 4.

Cam Fowler got 8.6% of the cap on his new deal.... a similar % under a 90 million cap, would put Risto close to 8 million.

So for 50 mil, in 3 years from now that would secure us our top 2 centers, 2 first line wingers, a solid 20-25 goal 2nd liner and our top LHD and RHD. 7 of our best players/pieces for $50 mil is very good indeed. I'd be happy if we could get those 7 for only $50 mil. In 3 years the cap will be close to 90 so we can definitely fill in the other 13 spots for 40 mil, especially as the most important and expensive areas (1C,2C,LW1,RW1,LW2, 1D,2D) are already taken care of. The only thing we need to be responsible with his goalie spending and the bottom six/bottom pairing. Can't have any 6 mil Okposo types wasting away on the 3rd or 4th line.

A more realistic view long term (given your performance expectations) would be something like:
Eichel: 10 (locked in)
Dahlin: 12 (Norris level play)
Mitts: 9.5 (70 point level play)
Reinhart: 6 (hope we get that extension done now)
Skinner: 8.5 (30 goal stud 1st line scorer, paying for ALL UFA years
Sheary: 6.0 (20 goal top 6 forward)
Risto: 8.0 (Top 3 defensemen signing in prime, paying for ALL UFA years

So... more like 60 million
 

OkimLom

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May 3, 2010
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I can't wait until we hear about the Eichel/Reinhart clique fighting with the Mitts/Dahlin clique.

And Risto just wants to kill everyone!

"Risto, not everyone is Swedish"

"I disagree, they are wearing blue and yellow"

"But Risto, you're wearing blue and yellow"

"Good Point, excuse me for 4 minutes"

"You mean 3 minutes, right?"
 

Doppelthis

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Aug 10, 2018
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If Bogo actually played 82 games this year I think his play would be top 4 caliber by January.

i don't disagree with you, he could even do 70-75 games and be top 4. I like Bogosian when he is on the ice but that is the issue, he is rarely on the ice. He is physical, has speed, and has a bomb of a shot. He can get a little lost in his own zone but he isn't horrendous.

sounds like he is really working hard this summer, which is a great thing. I'm just waiting for the inevitable preseason injury. :(
 

joshjull

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I said this months ago...

It wouldn’t be terrible if Dahlin played the entire preseason on the 3rd pairing. And even the first 6-10 games of the season. Get acclimated for a month or so, then throw him on the 2nd pairing and see how he does. In that timeframe, throw him on PP1, PP2, PK1, PK2 and see how he does. Of course if he rips it up and dominates, you throw him up even sooner.

Can someone with a logical well, thought out, non-dramatic argument tell me why that would be so ZOMG terrible?

I don’t think sheltering him in the preseason is needed. That would be the best time to actually give him bigger minutes since the stakes are lower. But I get if you want to start him on the bottom pair and have him work his way up when the season starts. I’m kind of in wait and see mode for camp/preseason to see where he is at.
 

Icicle

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I don’t think sheltering him in the preseason is needed. That would be the best time to actually give him bigger minutes since the stakes are lower. But I get if you want to start him on the bottom pair and have him work his way up when the season starts. I’m kind of in wait and see mode for camp/preseason to see where he is at.
Camp is going to be eEXCITIGNTng!!1!11!
 
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Dingo44

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I don’t think sheltering him in the preseason is needed. That would be the best time to actually give him bigger minutes since the stakes are lower. But I get if you want to start him on the bottom pair and have him work his way up when the season starts. I’m kind of in wait and see mode for camp/preseason to see where he is at.

Yeah - why shelter him in preseason? That's why it's preseason? I'm sure if he makes some mistakes it's not going to hurt his confidence. He's actually terrific about listening to coaching, watching video, and not making the same mistakes twice. Let him get some of those out when the stakes don't matter.
 

Reddawg

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We'll know it's a serious power struggle when a second tandem bicycle starts rolling into the service entrances at Key Bank Center...
Maybe we should start a GoFundMe to buy one of these

russellquad.jpg
 

Tatanka

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Why are we assuming there is a clique or a rift? Casey said Eichel welcomed him and took him to dinner. Dahlin got a welcome to the club call from Jack. Why are we assuming that all the remaining players are not ecstatic that talented players are joining the team?
 

brian_griffin

"Eric Cartman?"
May 10, 2007
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Why are we assuming there is a clique or a rift? Casey said Eichel welcomed him and took him to dinner. Dahlin got a welcome to the club call from Jack. Why are we assuming that all the remaining players are not ecstatic that talented players are joining the team?
I'm not assuming anything, and have every reason to believe as you do, too. I cited a sarcastic example which would portend actual rifts or cliques.

Edit: Looked closely in your photo. Is that Tyler Ennis (back visiting Buffalo for the Erie County Fair??) in the 2nd seat?
 

jc17

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Why are we assuming there is a clique or a rift? Casey said Eichel welcomed him and took him to dinner. Dahlin got a welcome to the club call from Jack. Why are we assuming that all the remaining players are not ecstatic that talented players are joining the team?
Cliques are forming because Jack made fun of Casey's clothing choices on instagram. Sam and Jack are BFFs so, even if Sam likes Casey, they might not get along.

^That could be the current status of the Sabres lockerroom, or the summary of a 2019 Mean Girls remake.
 

Gabrielor

"Win with us or watch us win." - Rasmus Dahlin
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Why are we assuming there is a clique or a rift? Casey said Eichel welcomed him and took him to dinner. Dahlin got a welcome to the club call from Jack. Why are we assuming that all the remaining players are not ecstatic that talented players are joining the team?

Some folks on here specifically don’t like the personality of Jack Eichel. That’s it.
 

GellMann

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Some folks on here specifically don’t like the personality of Jack Eichel. That’s it.
And it ain't just limited to this forum. A shocking amount of fans of other teams feel the same way, though when pressed they're either incredibly vague or say things that just aren't true/never happened.
 

Tatanka

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And it ain't just limited to this forum. A shocking amount of fans of other teams feel the same way, though when pressed they're either incredibly vague or say things that just aren't true/never happened.
other team"s fans I could care less about but understand why. The perception that he was the cause of the Coach/GM being fired was handled abysmally by the FO. The meme won't die. And at the time his demeanor and voice was immature and surly. I think Jack has matured a bit and someone has been helping with his inter personal skills with the media.
 

sabrebuild

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Cliques are forming because Jack made fun of Casey's clothing choices on instagram. Sam and Jack are BFFs so, even if Sam likes Casey, they might not get along.

^That could be the current status of the Sabres lockerroom, or the summary of a 2019 Mean Girls remake.

What has happened to us when the best movie of LiLo’s career is a true mirror of our times.
 

La Cosa Nostra

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I like the fact that Mitts and Dahlin will be mentored by Jack and Risto, two guys who are not that much older then each other. Jack is what, 3 years and Risto 6? I'm hoping those 4 are able to mesh and gel nicely since those 4 are pretty much the 4 pillars of a cup winner (along with your goalie playing well in the playoffs). 2 top end centers and 2 top D is what I see as the most important 4 players to a great team. And we have the potential for these 4 to play together 10-15 years. And I hope it happens.

When was the last time a Sabres D had 2 Dmen as good as we do now? I mean since 96-97, over 20 years our best D have been guys like Zhitnik, McKee, Warrener,post lockout Campbell and Tallinder, and teenaged Myers among a few others. None have been like Risto. And the fact we have a dman even better is so sweet. It's no secret that we haven't exactly had a plethora of great dmen to play for this franchise, at least as a Sabre. The Sabres have one dman in franchise history score 100 goals or more as a Sabre and he's our coach. Also only dman to hit 400 points as a Sabre (2nd is Ramsey at 329. Zhitnik third at 289) and games played wise we only have 4 dmen play 600+ games (Hajt, Ramsey, Zhitnik, Housley). Yeah, to say we have probably the best 1-2 D in team history isn't really going out on a limb. Risto is well on his way to reaching 2nd for virtually every benchmark for a Sabres D and hopefully Dahlin is ear marked to shatter all of our Dmen #s.

At least raw talent wise we haven't been this good since the early 90's. I am not saying this team is as talented as a team that boasted LaFontaine, Mogilny, Hawerchuk, Andreychuk etc but it's clearly the best since them, at least in terms of high end talent. Eichel, Dahlin, Mittelstadt and Risto are easily equal or better to any of the top 4 players from any other Sabre team since then and that counts the 05-07 teams. We should be eager for the future because it's real bright. The last time we were considered the #1 prospect team a few years back I never really felt we were going anywhere because we lacked the high end elite talent. Now with Jack and Dahlin, getting those prospects in here is much different. Before we would need a Nylander type prospect to become a first line winger in order for us to have any hope. Now, we just need him to be a viable top 9 20 goal forward in order to build a great team.

All we need is just one of the non elite prospects to be something more then a disappointment. Be it Asplund, Nylander, Samuelsson, Davidson whoever I just want a non elite prospect to be something more then serviceable for us. We've gone far too long since we hit on a 2nd or later round pick. And even though Nylander was a top 8 pick I don't consider him an elite prospect. I just hope he isn't a total flop. I think we have given up on him being as good or nearly as good as his brother but he could still make a big impact even if he merely becomes a 20-25 goal top 6/9 winger. If he can become that, then adding him to a team that already has Eichel, Mittelstadt, Reinhart, Skinner, Sheary can make us a top 5 offense.
 
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ClarksonSabresFan

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Fake news. I’m at a hockey camp where one of the coaches grew up in Messina with Bogosian and is still in contact with him. Bogosian is training hard. His body just may not be able to take the stress at the NHL level. It happens.
99% agree with this. He works out like crazy and is always in the gym during the summertime. He just has some unfortunate injuries that are a result of his style of play.

I’m giving you a 99% because it’s spelled Massena. However, it would have been lower, but there is a real good chance you were just making a pun. Massena is definitely a mess.

Intentional or not, thanks for the laugh!:laugh:
 
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Dingo44

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99% agree with this. He works out like crazy and is always in the gym during the summertime. He just has some unfortunate injuries that are a result of his style of play.

I’m giving you a 99% because it’s spelled Massena. However, it would have been lower, but there is a real good chance you were just making a pun. Massena is definitely a mess.

Intentional or not, thanks for the laugh!:laugh:

 
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