Roster Speculation 2014-2015, Part IV

[sabrebuild]

I'm a fan of Toffoli, just like most should be. But if we are dishing out the rarity that is an offer sheet, giving away as much as that picks-wise AND paying that much money yearly to sign him, the guy better be te most natural center ice CENTERMAN In the history of hockey. Because the offer sheet route is so Infrequently utilized, and comes at such a high cost, the target better be exactly what we need, which is a center.

getting toffoli in a different fashion would be fine

Because that will be so necessary with McEichel, Reinhart, Girgenson, Grigorenko.... How much do you think a point per game player costs? $6.5 per year is not 7 and is a completely acceptable amount to pay if he continues to play as he had this year. The cap is not a problem. So the real problem should be are the picks. I ask you, would you only pick a center in the 2016 draft in the first round? So he can eventually climb over at least two other good centers and be a useful player in three years, or would you rather support the young stars we already have next year. Again if we don't get McEichel I wouldn't do this, but if we get one of those two its time to stop sucking and starting building a real NHL team, Toffoli, Tarasenko and Nelson are guys who would do that and are young enough to fit perfectly in with our up and coming young players.

Its not the same as say trading Myers for Nich, as I assume is being alluded to.

 

[jBuds]

Because that will be so necessary with McEichel, Reinhart, Girgenson, Grigorenko.... How much do you think a point per game player costs? $6.5 per year is not 7 and is a completely acceptable amount to pay if he continues to play as he had this year. The cap is not a problem. So the real problem should be are the picks. I ask you, would you only pick a center in the 2016 draft in the first round? So he can eventually climb over at least two other good centers and be a useful player in three years, or would you rather support the young stars we already have next year. Again if we don't get McEichel I wouldn't do this, but if we get one of those two its time to stop sucking and starting building a real NHL team, Toffoli, Tarasenko and Nelson are guys who would do that and are young enough to fit perfectly in with our up and coming young players.

Its not the same as say trading Myers for Nich, as I assume is being alluded to.

So you argue against center focus, because of who we have, but your prior premise on offer sheeting is "taking the proven NHLer over the prospect because you don't know who you are getting in the draft or who you have as prospects since they're not developed yet"...??? Which is it? Are you counting on Reinhart, Girgs, Grigs, or do you want to offer sheet someone because they're unproven commodities?

Why you would be the first team to give away a ton of assets to get someone at a secondary area of need is beyond me. Hopefully if we go the route of the offer sheet (doubt it), some serious thought is put behind it so it is done with focus and purpose. Otherwise, do it the way it has been done by every single team for the last 50 years: draft well, figure out what you have in your stable, then sign/trade vets to supplement.

 

[sabrebuild]

I think there is a significant difference between calling Girgs, Grigs, and Reinhart unproven or unknown commodities than say a 2016 prospect. I also don't think given the likelihood of at least getting Eichel, that our biggest area of need will be center by as early as next season. I believe a Toffoli or Nelson will not be secondary players but impact players. I like Nich too for the same reason, just not at the expense of a current known quality player. I also don't believe that the Sabres will be picking in the top 5 next year, if Murray decides to make real moves. Players like Toffoli and Nelson are very unlikely to be available as unrestricted free agents, and trades cost picks and proven players so that hurts too.

So ya I'd rather make a move for an impact player whose team is in a financial pinch for basically money and a first round pick.

 

[joshjull]

Because that will be so necessary with McEichel, Reinhart, Girgenson, Grigorenko.... How much do you think a point per game player costs? $6.5 per year is not 7 and is a completely acceptable amount to pay if he continues to play as he had this year. The cap is not a problem. So the real problem should be are the picks. I ask you, would you only pick a center in the 2016 draft in the first round? So he can eventually climb over at least two other good centers and be a useful player in three years, or would you rather support the young stars we already have next year. Again if we don't get McEichel I wouldn't do this, but if we get one of those two its time to stop sucking and starting building a real NHL team, Toffoli, Tarasenko and Nelson are guys who would do that and are young enough to fit perfectly in with our up and coming young players.

Its not the same as say trading Myers for Nich, as I assume is being alluded to.

Can we stop with this nonsense please. Its 15gms into the season. If thats the measure can I call Hodgson a ppg player since he had a similar run with Vanek/Pommer? Toffoli is not a ppg player yet. He's also on a SECONDARY scoring line. One thats thrives in the shadow of Gaborik/Kopitar/Williams. He gets less than 11mins a night at ES which puts him 11th among King forwards. he also players with a dynamic all situations center in Carter who is the driving force of that line. A center we don't currently have.

Yet you want to give him 6.5 (and arguing thats not 7mil is semantic nonsense) per year and give up several draft picks on the HOPE he can produce as a top line winger. Something he has never been nor has he ever gotten close to top line minutes. He only plays 14mins a night even with his PP ice time.

It makes absolutely no sense to do something like this. That being acquiring a secondary piece and a winger no less, with the assets it would require to get him.

 

[Beerz]

You can tell Kaleta has a problem with his eye..... wow.

 

[jBuds]

I think there is a significant difference between calling Girgs, Grigs, and Reinhart unproven or unknown commodities than say a 2016 prospect. I also don't think given the likelihood of at least getting Eichel, that our biggest area of need will be center by as early as next season. I believe a Toffoli or Nelson will not be secondary players but impact players. I like Nich too for the same reason, just not at the expense of a current known quality player. I also don't believe that the Sabres will be picking in the top 5 next year, if Murray decides to make real moves. Players like Toffoli and Nelson are very unlikely to be available as unrestricted free agents, and trades cost picks and proven players so that hurts too.

So ya I'd rather make a move for an impact player whose team is in a financial pinch for basically money and a first round pick.

Got it. I disagree pretty vehemently, but this at least clarifies your thought process a bit.

I guess it comes down to this: if I'm using the seldom traveled road of offersheeting, i am doing so to get a guy who is basically the perfect fit. That conversation doesn't even start if the guy I'm targeting doesn't play down the middle. ESPECIALLY now or next year or the year after that where we definitely don't and won't have our center issues solved just yet regardless of who we have stashed.

Even in a perfect world, where Reinhart and Grigorenko and Girgs all pan out as centers, and we get McDavid and he pans out too, I'd be more comfortable having "too many centers" forced to shift one or two outside.

Hopefully the days of guys like Stafford playing center for us are coming to a close.

 

[Jame]

I'm not really worried about it just passing on that its happened. Oddly you still seem in denial that it does.

My personal stance is I think offer sheets are a terrible way to acquire players from an assets management pov.

You thought purposely tanking was a terrible way to build a team too.

Maybe try out evolving your views

I know you understand that this team wont be entirely built through the draft, and you've referenced moves LA has made... I guess I don't understand how giving up the assets to acquire Mike Richards it Jeff Carter is better asset management than giving up picks further in the future for similar or better talent.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

As long as Murray is smart with his own RFAs to be (of which given our prospect pool we will likely have a lot over the next 5-8 years, many of whom will require a significant raise), then offer sheet away. The last thing you want is other teams poaching a guy like Armia or Zadorov in retaliation when McEichel/Reinhart/Risto/etc. all get their money deals and push us close to the cap. But if Murray is proactive with those guys and keeping the depth around the core, then there's no reason to be afraid of offer sheets.

 

[sabrebuild]

Can we stop with this nonsense please. Its 15gms into the season. If thats the measure can I call Hodgson a ppg player since he had a similar run with Vanek/Pommer? Toffoli is not a ppg player yet. He's also on a SECONDARY scoring line. One thats thrives in the shadow of Gaborik/Kopitar/Williams. He gets less than 11mins a night at ES which puts him 11th among King forwards. he also players with a dynamic all situations center in Carter who is the driving force of that line. A center we don't currently have.

Yet you want to give him 6.5 (and arguing thats not 7mil is semantic nonsense) per year and give up several draft picks on the HOPE he can produce as a top line winger. Something he has never been nor has he ever gotten close to top line minutes. He only plays 14mins a night even with his PP ice time.

It makes absolutely no sense to do something like this. That being acquiring a secondary piece and a winger no less, with the assets it would require to get him.

Read my post. I said if he continues to play this well all year. I am also a big fan of his game since well before this year. And im sorry but a second and third round pick mean very little to me for a player like him.
The first rounder is what hurts. We have plenty of cap space.

 

[sabres4ever]

You can tell Kaleta has a problem with his eye..... wow.

And, it would seem, his wardrobe choices.

 

[sabrebuild]

Got it. I disagree pretty vehemently, but this at least clarifies your thought process a bit.

I guess it comes down to this: if I'm using the seldom traveled road of offersheeting, i am doing so to get a guy who is basically the perfect fit. That conversation doesn't even start if the guy I'm targeting doesn't play down the middle. ESPECIALLY now or next year or the year after that where we definitely don't and won't have our center issues solved just yet regardless of who we have stashed.

Even in a perfect world, where Reinhart and Grigorenko and Girgs all pan out as centers, and we get McDavid and he pans out too, I'd be more comfortable having "too many centers" forced to shift one or two outside.

Hopefully the days of guys like Stafford playing center for us are coming to a close.

I get where your coming from but those days are behind us. Out of the four big centers at least two will workout, but more likely grigs is the only real risk. Then you have guys like Larsson and Schaller who look very promising for the bottom center spots. That also ignores a depth center signing in fa. I just don't think we are only going to get centers from the draft. Are we taking a center every draft forever in the first round?

 

[sabrebuild]

Why does the fact that it has been used infrequently affect who you would use it on jbuds? Its not like you only get to try it one time.

 

[Jame]

I have no problem paying top dollar for top talent, and the benefit of our deep as **** prospect pool, is that i have no problem giving up draft picks in 2016 and beyond.

there are legit arguments about which player, what position, what type of player, etc that you would use an offersheet on. But to take it off the table or be vehemently against it for either of the reasons debated here:
1. asset management reasons (assets + top dollar)
2. fear of retaliation

is illogical at best, and incompetent at worst.

 

[Baccus]

I have no problem paying top dollar for top talent, and the benefit of our deep as **** prospect pool, is that i have no problem giving up draft picks in 2016 and beyond.

there are legit arguments about which player, what position, what type of player, etc that you would use an offersheet on. But to take it off the table or be vehemently against it for either of the reasons debated here:
1. asset management reasons (assets + top dollar)
2. fear of retaliation

is illogical at best, and incompetent at worst.

Umm, asset management is completely and totally valid as an issue as you are both paying top dollar for what is most likely not a proven (several year) first line player and paying multiple high draft picks. I don't understand this "too many prospects" attitude, until players actually develop, you don't really have anything (outside of what you can sucker somebody into believing for a trade).

Fear of retaliation isn't something I'd be concerned about, but that's not the same as some people suggesting it doesn't exist.

I think it'll be interesting to see what happens with the Kings/Blackhawks/Bruins as they are the teams that seem to be the most vulnerable to possible offer sheets if the cap does not go up, and for the right person, I wouldn't have an issue with one.

It's really hard to speculate on what is or is not "worth" offer sheeting as it's random speculation and the person/position can make a massive difference. While the Sabres clearly couldn't/shouldn't do one last year, I thought somebody like Tampa should have gone after PK Subban. Of course nobody knows what discussions go on that don't actually result in a signed offer sheet, I'm sure agents do plenty of groundwork to try to establish salary bases.

Realistically, I think most teams will simply match any offer sheet if the player is worth one, and dump older/non-long term talent in it's place, even at a discount. I think part of the issue is, it's not just "losing" the player, it's viewed in the media/publicly as a team failure if somebody gets signed away and it's not matched, despite the draft pick haul you'd be getting.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Offer sheets don't happen much for some very good reasons...

1) The players worth offer-sheeting are usually re-signed before they hit RFA status.
2) It's an over-payment in both salary and draft picks.
3) An offer sheet requires a team to have and use all their own picks.

So while one team can maybe afford an offer sheet once every 3-5 years, multiple GMs making offer sheets in close proximity would jack up salary structure around the league and knock some vets in the 1-3 mil salary range out of the league. Owners know offer sheets are playing with fire, so even if more GMs would be willing to gamble with them, their owners likely tell them to leave that @#$% alone.

We can all play fantasy GM with no regard for long-term implications, but Pegula, Murray, and all their colleagues have to adhere to some level of cooperation. The best way to put it is - you can get ahead with the first nuke strike, but if everyone else decides to play that game everybody is going to lose.

 

[DJN21]

Do we even have our own 2nd rounder to offer sheet with?

 

[Beerz]

Do we even have our own 2nd rounder to offer sheet with?

Yes... Think we gave up Minny 2nd rounder in Gorges trade.

 

[DJN21]

Yes... Think we gave up Minny 2nd rounder in Gorges trade.

ahhh thank you sir!

 

[TehDoak]

I dont understand your point with the trades?

RFA Offersheet should be a legitimate tool for a team in our shoes:
- We are flush with prospect talent and 2015 pick (any offersheet would be for 2016 picks and beyond).
- We have plenty of cap space
- We are going to have a very young core, getting some talent that is a little further ahead is ideal
- With an offersheet you can target a very specific player, the type of player that rarely ends up on the trade/free agent market.

there is no reason to operate out of fear.

It's not fear, its just the fact there are better, easier ways to get specifically wingers that don't require offersheets. The ground really has been covered.

I'd like to look at our situation, specifically. however.

So, again, assuming one of McDavid/Eichel

I'm also going to assume one of Hodgson/Ennis is traded.

Here is our "projected" forward lines


Matt Moulson ($5.000m) / Jack Eichel ($3.000m) /
Cody Hodgson ($4.250m) / Mikhail Grigorenko ($0.900m) / Joel Armia ($0.894m)
Marcus Foligno ($1.875m) / Zemgus Girgensons ($0.894m) / Brian Gionta ($4.250m)
Nicolas DesLauriers ($0.638m) / Johan Larsson ($0.851m) / Brian Flynn ($0.715m)
Cody McCormick ($1.500m) /

I'm assuming Armia earns a spot and Grigerenko earns a spot. I'm also assuming Reinhart, initially, goes down to Rochester. Now, that leaves an obvious spot on the top line RW side, which, of course, could be filled by an offersheet target.

However, I think there are other, better option would be to

A) Package Ennis/Hodgson (salary retained), a prospect, and one of our 3 1st rounders in 2015 for a winger
B) Offer a large, short term deal to Justin Williams
C) Agressively pursue players on cap jailed teams, such as Chicago and Philadelphia. Wayne Simmonds or Jakub Voracek? Patrick Sharp?

Are they going to be as good as Taresenko or Toffoli? Probably not. However, given the sheer volume of large bodied wingers we have on both sides, personally, I would tend to avoid going after a offersheet candidate and look for short term solutions assuming our own prospects will provide the long term answers.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Because those are players we will totally let hit RFA if they are playing at a level that would garner a massive offersheet.

ya I mean its not like Shea Weber or PK Subban or Ryan O'Reilly ever made it to that point

How much would that offer sheet have to be to get any of these guys? What you're talking about with an offer sheet is throwing massive money at low to mid 20's kid, and chances are the sheet gets matched anyway. What's the point in even messing with it? If the players worth the massive contract, the team will match it, if he's not then congrats you just blow massive cap and some draft picks for a player not worth what you paid.

Offer sheets are useless relics that only exist because it isn't worth the fight with PA to get rid of them.

 

[Husko]

It has to be just the right situation. Unless you're busting a team that is at the cap limit, you're going to be both overpaying and/or over compensating (otherwise the team would just accept the offer sheet).

Now that said, the fear of an offer sheet can be a great way to kick-start a trade.

 

[Husko]

ya I mean its not like Shea Weber or PK Subban or Ryan O'Reilly ever made it to that point

How much would that offer sheet have to be to get any of these guys? What you're talking about with an offer sheet is throwing massive money at low to mid 20's kid, and chances are the sheet gets matched anyway. What's the point in even messing with it? If the players worth the massive contract, the team will match it, if he's not then congrats you just blow massive cap and some draft picks for a player not worth what you paid.

Offer sheets are useless relics that only exist because it isn't worth the fight with PA to get rid of them.

If a team runs into cap trouble then the offer sheet can be a useful chip. Imagine if the Vanek offer sheet had come after we had managed to re-sign both co-caps.

 

[Husko]

It's not fear, its just the fact there are better, easier ways to get specifically wingers that don't require offersheets. The ground really has been covered.

I'd like to look at our situation, specifically. however.

So, again, assuming one of McDavid/Eichel

I'm also going to assume one of Hodgson/Ennis is traded.

Here is our "projected" forward lines


Matt Moulson ($5.000m) / Jack Eichel ($3.000m) /
Cody Hodgson ($4.250m) / Mikhail Grigorenko ($0.900m) / Joel Armia ($0.894m)
Marcus Foligno ($1.875m) / Zemgus Girgensons ($0.894m) / Brian Gionta ($4.250m)
Nicolas DesLauriers ($0.638m) / Johan Larsson ($0.851m) / Brian Flynn ($0.715m)
Cody McCormick ($1.500m) /

I'm assuming Armia earns a spot and Grigerenko earns a spot. I'm also assuming Reinhart, initially, goes down to Rochester. Now, that leaves an obvious spot on the top line RW side, which, of course, could be filled by an offersheet target.

However, I think there are other, better option would be to

A) Package Ennis/Hodgson (salary retained), a prospect, and one of our 3 1st rounders in 2015 for a winger
B) Offer a large, short term deal to Justin Williams
C) Agressively pursue players on cap jailed teams, such as Chicago and Philadelphia. Wayne Simmonds or Jakub Voracek? Patrick Sharp?

Are they going to be as good as Taresenko or Toffoli? Probably not. However, given the sheer volume of large bodied wingers we have on both sides, personally, I would tend to avoid going after a offersheet candidate and look for short term solutions assuming our own prospects will provide the long term answers.

Jagr: 1 year 10 million.

Then we sign Okposo in UFA.

 

[DJN21]

If a team runs into cap trouble then the offer sheet can be a useful chip. Imagine if the Vanek offer sheet had come after we had managed to re-sign both co-caps.

you cant live in a what if world though. In that scenario where would we be now? Drury's gone from hockey and Briere is a throw away. Without vanek we dont have Moulson not to mention several important draft picks...theres no telling who management takes with those picks from edmonton and our rebuild is thrown completely off pace by having drury and briere on payroll for high dollars. We maybe cant re-up other key players due to cap restraints...you cant play the what if game. Maybe we finish higher and dont get Grigs, Risto,Zads etc...who knows

 

[DJN21]

It's not fear, its just the fact there are better, easier ways to get specifically wingers that don't require offersheets. The ground really has been covered.

I'd like to look at our situation, specifically. however.

So, again, assuming one of McDavid/Eichel

I'm also going to assume one of Hodgson/Ennis is traded.

Here is our "projected" forward lines


Matt Moulson ($5.000m) / Jack Eichel ($3.000m) /
Cody Hodgson ($4.250m) / Mikhail Grigorenko ($0.900m) / Joel Armia ($0.894m)
Marcus Foligno ($1.875m) / Zemgus Girgensons ($0.894m) / Brian Gionta ($4.250m)
Nicolas DesLauriers ($0.638m) / Johan Larsson ($0.851m) / Brian Flynn ($0.715m)
Cody McCormick ($1.500m) /

I'm assuming Armia earns a spot and Grigerenko earns a spot. I'm also assuming Reinhart, initially, goes down to Rochester. Now, that leaves an obvious spot on the top line RW side, which, of course, could be filled by an offersheet target.

However, I think there are other, better option would be to

A) Package Ennis/Hodgson (salary retained), a prospect, and one of our 3 1st rounders in 2015 for a winger
B) Offer a large, short term deal to Justin Williams
C) Agressively pursue players on cap jailed teams, such as Chicago and Philadelphia. Wayne Simmonds or Jakub Voracek? Patrick Sharp?

Are they going to be as good as Taresenko or Toffoli? Probably not. However, given the sheer volume of large bodied wingers we have on both sides, personally, I would tend to avoid going after a offersheet candidate and look for short term solutions assuming our own prospects will provide the long term answers.

^This