Speculation: Roster Improvements - Part II

[CupsOverCash]

I know it's premature talk but what is the deal with our cap situation heading into FA next July? I know Stamkos will be the biggest focus on the offseason but are we in any position to add anybody to the team?

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/TBL?expand=true&year=2015

 

[Todd1a]

I know it's premature talk but what is the deal with our cap situation heading into FA next July? I know Stamkos will be the biggest focus on the offseason but are we in any position to add anybody to the team?

I'd say no right now until we move money

 

[The Macho King]

I'd say no right now until we move money

We could make a small deal. We have Prospal coming off the books (finally), and Bish is getting his raise next year. Stamkos' new contract won't hit until the following season, so next season he's still at 7.5 cap hit.

Likely though, we get two fourth line forwards, re-sign Sustr and that's it for FA - trades may be something else. I could see Carle being moved - D market is pretty thin this offseason, although we may have to hold a million or so. If we could get a better guy more suited to the third pairing it will probably be worth it though, and could let us potentially save money for re-signing Kucherov to a friendlier, long term deal with a more controlled cap hit (like 6 years at 5 million as opposed to a bridge deal) the following offseason.

 

[CarpeNoctem]

I'm betting that Coburn will get extended and Carle will be traded next year. Coburn's clearly a more valuable element with our roster being what it is.

 

[Todd1a]

We could make a small deal. We have Prospal coming off the books (finally), and Bish is getting his raise next year. Stamkos' new contract won't hit until the following season, so next season he's still at 7.5 cap hit.

Likely though, we get two fourth line forwards, re-sign Sustr and that's it for FA - trades may be something else. I could see Carle being moved - D market is pretty thin this offseason, although we may have to hold a million or so. If we could get a better guy more suited to the third pairing it will probably be worth it though, and could let us potentially save money for re-signing Kucherov to a friendlier, long term deal with a more controlled cap hit (like 6 years at 5 million as opposed to a bridge deal) the following offseason.

it would be nice if yzerman could get stamkos to take 8.5 per year cap hit

 

[The Macho King]

it would be nice if yzerman could get stamkos to take 8.5 per year cap hit

Not gonna happen. No use even hoping for it.

 

[Callum]

I'm betting that Coburn will get extended and Carle will be traded next year. Coburn's clearly a more valuable element with our roster being what it is.

Let's hope Carle has a good playoffs and increases his value eh

 

[xteesy]

I see Carle getting moved in the off season and us signing for a d-man at half his salary.

Stamkos will get paid what he's worth.

Would be really nice though to move Carle since he's a substantial hit, and no one really knows whether he'll be the same when he gets back (which wasn't all that great in the first place).

 

[Todd1a]

I see Carle getting moved in the off season and us signing for a d-man at half his salary.

Stamkos will get paid what he's worth.

Would be really nice though to move Carle since he's a substantial hit, and no one really knows whether he'll be the same when he gets back (which wasn't all that great in the first place).

I'm more for moving him out and giving his 5th spot to slater koekkoek ? or Nikita Nesterov ? what about going after glencross ? unless we think erne can fill the morrow role ? or we might just sit out the FA game and resign stamkos and corburn to extensions ?

 

[Rschmitz]

Unfortunately, the ideal time to trade Carle is at the trade deadline. However, he's hurt so there really wasn't a deal to be made.

 

[MattM92]

Unfortunately, the ideal time to trade Carle is at the trade deadline. However, he's hurt so there really wasn't a deal to be made.

I think he still had too many years on his contract to attract any serious consideration this TDL. Maybe next TDL when he's only got 2(?) years left.

 

[IdealisticSniper]

Unfortunately, the ideal time to trade Carle is at the trade deadline. However, he's hurt so there really wasn't a deal to be made.

No way you trade Carle if you can fit him in the cap which we can this year. Having Carle rather than Barberio or Nesterov(although Nesterov is really starting to impress) is a good thing.

 

[Jacko95]

We should try to trade Killorn for Komarov this summer. Komarov would really give us some edge back (kind of like Malone did) and while Toronto loves him, by the time they will be able to compete again he is mostly likely going to gets worse like all guys playing his style do in their early 30s.
Killorn is good, but Komarov is a real need.

 

[The Macho King]

We should try to trade Killorn for Komarov this summer. Komarov would really give us some edge back (kind of like Malone did) and while Toronto loves him, by the time they will be able to compete again he is mostly likely going to gets worse like all guys playing his style do in their early 30s.
Killorn is good, but Komarov is a real need.

...

No.

 

[StammerHed2010]

So as Stamkos' play has rarely reached the levels of pre-injury last year, Ive been thinking a lot about his upcoming raise.

For argument, say his contract needed to be negotiated tomorrow:

At what number do we walk away and say we can get more value elsewhere/by keeping other players?

is there a number?

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

We should try to trade Killorn for Komarov this summer. Komarov would really give us some edge back (kind of like Malone did) and while Toronto loves him, by the time they will be able to compete again he is mostly likely going to gets worse like all guys playing his style do in their early 30s.
Killorn is good, but Komarov is a real need.

We don't need to give up a warm body for him.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

...

No.

 

[DFC]

We don't need to give up a warm body for him.

Yeah. Killorn's value is higher. I actually like Komarov a lot. He's been a bright spot on a horrible team. I wouldn't mind acquiring him, but I wouldn't give up Killorn, who's proven himself to be an adequate (though far from ideal) 1st line winger. Komarov couldn't be that in a million years. I think Jacko's probably using Killer to make the money even out.

Money aside, something like Barberio + a pick would be decent. That might work if Yzerman does some 11th hour salary shedding like last year.

 

[IdealisticSniper]

So as Stamkos' play has rarely reached the levels of pre-injury last year, Ive been thinking a lot about his upcoming raise.

For argument, say his contract needed to be negotiated tomorrow:

At what number do we walk away and say we can get more value elsewhere/by keeping other players?

is there a number?

My guess is 11.5 is the max. Could he get more? Absolutely. But all things considered I think that's the max Yzerman is gonna aim for.

 

[Jacko95]

Yeah. Killorn's value is higher. I actually like Komarov a lot. He's been a bright spot on a horrible team. I wouldn't mind acquiring him, but I wouldn't give up Killorn, who's proven himself to be an adequate (though far from ideal) 1st line winger. Komarov couldn't be that in a million years. I think Jacko's probably using Killer to make the money even out.

Money aside, something like Barberio + a pick would be decent. That might work if Yzerman does some 11th hour salary shedding like last year.

Yeah that was the thought process behind the deal. Obviously salary would have to go somewhere if we add Komarovs 3m, doesn't need to be Killorn and we could easily trade salary somewhere else and just give Toronto someone like Barbs +(as you mentioned). But the point stands, Komarov would be one of those pests that has some skill in his body as well.

 

[Major4Boarding]

it would be nice if yzerman could get stamkos to take 8.5 per year cap hit

Not gonna happen. No use even hoping for it.

Well... while a pretty big longshot, I don't believe it can be definitively ruled out as "Not gonna happen" either.

To placate T1A :

12.5 + 12.5 + 12.5 + 12.5 + 5.5 + 5.5 + 5.5 + 5.5 = 8yrs/$64M (Cap hit @ $8M)

Or... perhaps a bit closer to where most of us believe (hope) this lands:

12.5 + 12.5 + 12.5 + 12.5 + 10 + 8.5 + 6.5 + 6.5 = 8yrs/$81.5M (Cap Hit @ $10.187M)

Or (one more) how about something similar, or very close to Toews/Kane

12.5 + 12.5 + 12.5 + 12.5 + 9 + 9 + 8.5 + 8.5 = 8yrs/$85M (Cap Hit @ $10.625M)

So since I'm using Kane and Toews as comparables, I'll also include Parise, Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, and Subban as other comparables... especially Kane, Toews, and Subban. They're contract extensions are the most similar to what we're speculating Stamkos' to be (and the most recent post new CBA).

Kane - (10.5) 13.8 + 13.8 + 13.8 + 12 + 9.8 + 7 + 6.9 + 6.9.

Toews - (10.5) 13.8 + 13.8 + 13.8 + 12 + 9.8 + 7 + 6.9 + 6.9.

Kane and Toews signed their contracts last July

Subban - (9) 8 yrs/$72M - 7 + 7 + 11 + 11 + 10 + 10 + 8 + 8. His new contract was on the heels of arbitration last summer.

Parise (7.5) 13 yrs/$98M July 2012. 2012/13 and 2013/14 were $12M per year (Salary), this year was $11M with the remaining salary remaining being 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 8 + 6 + 2.

Ovechkin - (9.538) previous years @ $9M. 6 more years left at $10M. Remember, Ovechkin signed his before the latest CBA, which caps contract length at 7/8. He signed his in 2008.

Malkin - (8.7) Extension kicked in this season. Cap hit next season will be $9.5M - Salary is $9.5M for the next 7 yrs. No Salary slide so Cap/Salary remain the same.

Crosby - (8.7) Another one that signed his contract before the latest CBA (June 2012). His is 12 yrs with peak salary at $12M last year, this year, and next then tails off.

7.5 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 10.9 + 10.9 + 10 + 9 + 9.6 + 9 + 3.

And just from where I sit, Stamkos' Agent is Don Meehan (who's also Subban's Agent). His Firm has shown enough "creativeness" in contract terms ("Peaks and Slides") that, to me, has the potential to be quite feasible. Newport Sports Management, Inc also has Drej in their stable.

Although, Mark Guy will most likely do the heavy lifting for Stamkos' negotiations.

 

[Werewolf]

It would make things so much easier if a NHL player was paid under a contract that looked like this:

Kane - (10.5) 13.8 + 13.8 + 13.8 + 12 + 9.8 + 7 + 6.9 + 6.9

And was traded due to performance vs contract CAP hit value...the acquiring team would not inherit the full CAP hit. They would inherit the average of the remaining amount left on the contract. So that if he was traded in the offseason of year 5 his CAP hit to the acquiring team would be $7M against the CAP vs full $10.5. Making it easier to manage and move contracts vs declining ROI based on age.

 

[IdealisticSniper]

It would make things so much easier if a NHL player was paid under a contract that looked like this:

Kane - (10.5) 13.8 + 13.8 + 13.8 + 12 + 9.8 + 7 + 6.9 + 6.9

And was traded due to performance vs contract CAP hit value...the acquiring team would not inherit the full CAP hit. They would inherit the average of the remaining amount left on the contract. So that if he was traded in the offseason of year 5 his CAP hit to the acquiring team would be $7M against the CAP vs full $10.5. Making it easier to manage and move contracts vs declining ROI based on age.

Yeah I've thought that same thing a few times. There must be reasons that are negative to this that I haven't figured out because I haven't thought much last the original idea.

 

[DFC]

Yeah that was the thought process behind the deal. Obviously salary would have to go somewhere if we add Komarovs 3m, doesn't need to be Killorn and we could easily trade salary somewhere else and just give Toronto someone like Barbs +(as you mentioned). But the point stands, Komarov would be one of those pests that has some skill in his body as well.

Absolutely. He'd be a great addition to the bottom-six. As a Morrow replacement, he'd be phenomenal, and he can slot higher at times, although I wouldn't really call him a tweener.

One thing to remember though is we Adam Erne who's going to be vying for a similar role. I think odds are he's going to end up in Syracuse, but when we traded Connolly, it seemed to open up an opportunity for Erne to get a legit shot next season.