Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIX

[TheBloodyNine]

You've implied it many times.

What I've implied is that the best chances of getting elite talent are at the top of the draft, and that we should give our team the best shot we can instead of hoping against reality that they are gonna find that player later in the draft.

It's great that Sebastian Aho got drafted 35 overall. Go back and look at other 35th overalls, not very impressive at all.

 

[RGY]

True, they would have been much better off without Tavares 45 goals. Very unnecessary.

I dont even think you solely blame the defense for not beating Boston. They had played well at times. Matthews didnt score much. Andersson gave up a bad 3rd goal from the top of the circles to Kuraly last night. It happens. They lost to a pretty damn good Bruins team imo.

Tavares was a good move for them. Now they will figure out what the next steps are. Convince Marleau to waive? Move out someone else? Nylander for a D? Its part of the process.

 

[SA16]

Neglecting defense to bring in more offense isn't superfluous. Even if you are the best offensive team in the league if you sign someone who improves your offense by 0.1 goals/60 that's the same net effect as signing someone who improves your defense by 0.1 goals against/60. It doesn't matter where you improve whether it's strengthening a strength or a weakness. Of course the new player needs to not play the exact same role as someone you already had though. If you already have Ovechkin bringing Pastrnak to help your PP will net give you the full effect since they play the same role.

What I've implied is that the best chances of getting elite talent are at the top of the draft, and that we should give our team the best shot we can instead of hoping against reality that they are gonna find that player later in the draft.

It's great that Sebastian Aho got drafted 35 overall. Go back and look at other 35th overalls, not very impressive at all.

Sebastian Aho got drafted 139th overall.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Lets stop pretending. Gorton saw what we saw. The team was not good enough to win. The core was not good enough to win.

He dipped his toe in the pool when he traded Stepan. He then proceeded to cannon-ball the following TDL.

Arguing when the 'rebuild' began is worthless. Assets are needed to be 'rebuilt' We started accumulating assets, at an above average pace, starting with the Stepan trade. Those assets are part of the 'new core'. Time only matters in development for these players.

The core is theoretically in place already.

Zibs, Kakko, Kravtstov, Buch, Lias, Chytil, Howden, Lemiuex. Kreider? Panarin? Strome? That's the top9 filled already.

The defense will take longer, as they always do. We should get a better understanding by the start of next season... Skjei, ADA, Hajek, Rykov, Lindgren, Lundkvist and Miller is a nice pool. Adding a Trouba/Risto would help things... along with firing Ruff.. ( Dallas being a great example )

Not all of those guys will be here when the team is cooking. Strome for instance, as surprising as he was last year, is not a long term fixture for this team.

We're still figuring out what we have and of all those guys, I'd say only Kakko and Zibanejad are for sure long term pieces. I think Kravstov is, I'm pretty certain that at least 2 of rookie trio from last year will be here long term and I like Lemieux's chances, whether that be as a 3rd liner or a 4th liner if he stalls out.

I'm not sold on Buchnevich (I'd look to move him for help on D), Kreider might be on his way out and Panarin is probably on his way to Florida. I've already covered Strome.

The core is not in place, but it's coming into focus.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

and Dubas is being exposed as a fraud for allowing the Marleau and Zaitsev signings in 2016/2017.

And he definitely can't deal from a position of strength (say Nylander), for defensive help.

What a disaster they're in. All that talent, no one smart enough to trade it all for futures.

The issue is that he didn't do it already.

There are problems with that team that go beyond their defense. Even if they had gotten by Boston, that team was getting smoked by Columbus.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Certainly those goals elevated the team to a higher seed and a long playoff run. Oh wait, you mean they ended the season in the exact same seeding and got bounced in the first round again WITH Tavares? Oh man, I can't believe it!

The leafs scored a whopping 16 goals more with Tavares on their squad and actually had a worse overall record in the regular season.

Totally disingenuous. First of all:
Toronto 2017-18: 42 ROW
Toronto 2018-19: 46 ROW
Toronto 2017-18: 49.86 CF%, 51.1 xGF%,
Toronto 2018-19: 51.78 CF%, 51.79 xGF%

Clearly Toronto was a better team this season than they were last season. They didn't even have Nylander until December. And are you really going to bring up a 7 game series in which Toronto was the better team in game 7 to show how the signing wasn't of benefit? How about the fact Nazem Kadri took himself out of the series after game 2, kind of a big deal. Or just that the playoffs are kind of random in general especially when you get down to a game 7. Are you going to argue that Vegas was worse off bringing in Pacioretty and Stone because they lost in a game 7?

 

[ETTER DE]

The rebuild definitely did not start when Stepan was traded. We were still going into that season looking to make a run for the cup.

I dont think anyone argues that they did not try to be competitive in 2017. They were trying to rebuild "on the fly". (Cant remember if these were the exact words or not that was used after the hammering by the Pens in the 2016 playoffs.) And they were trying to rebuild. They wanted to get younger, and they wanted to remove the old core. Trade the most valuable players in McDonagh and Stepan. Hank and Nash had NMCs. But they did not plan to tear it down. They got rid of a couple of older players each year. But the plan to rebuild on the fly failed, so in 2018 they decided to tear it all down.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Totally disingenuous. First of all:
Toronto 2017-18: 42 ROW
Toronto 2018-19: 46 ROW
Toronto 2017-18: 49.86 CF%, 51.1 xGF%,
Toronto 2018-19: 51.78 CF%, 51.79 xGF%

Clearly Toronto was a better team this season than they were last season. They didn't even have Nylander until December. And are you really going to bring up a 7 game series in which Toronto was the better team in game 7 to show how the signing wasn't of benefit? How about the fact Nazem Kadri took himself out of the series after game 2, kind of a big deal. Or just that the playoffs are kind of random in general especially when you get down to a game 7. Are you going to argue that Vegas was worse off bringing in Pacioretty and Stone because they lost in a game 7?

Those fancy stats are great and all, but at the end of the day, they had a worse overall record and suffered the same exact fate during the playoffs that they did when they didn't have Tavares. The overall results don't lie. Who knows where they would have been had they properly constructed their team instead of going after a player to give them 16 more goals in the regular season. There are no moral victories about being the better team. They lost, just like we said they would, and it was their defense and goaltending leading the charge towards that loss.

 

[Ola]

Not one player after pavel and Jamie that the Rangers drafted played a single game in the NHL

Ouch, what a draft that was. I like how it’s a really easy decision to deal all picks in the first, besides the Sedins at 2 and 3, for the 7th round picks.

 

[Off Sides]

Your mindset seems very much like how Gorton approaches it. After getting the 2nd pick at the lottery, he was talking about doing things the right way and karma coming around to reward you. They traded away FAs for assets to restock, not to drop further down the rankings.

I doubt leadership has delusions they'll compete for a playoff spot next year, but it's clear they want to ice a team that will compete game in and game out (regardless of the scoreboard).

I've used the term organic in the past. I hope Karma is a real thing, even if I'm not much of a believer in it.

It's not a tank, this is just how the CBA is set up, using the supply and demand cycle which is built into it.

Teams who rebuild, who sell established NHLers for that purpose, usually end up in good draft position, perhaps even really good depending on the lottery.

Rangers have been selling such players, that process so far has produced from their own 1st round selection #9 last draft, and #2 this draft. Plus has garnered them extra picks elsewhere.

A continuation of that process, selling more established players, would probably have similar natural side effects for the 2020 draft.

Icing a team which competes regardless of score, wouldn't part of that be Strome, Namestnikov, Howden, Hajek , Lindgren, ADA, Lemieux, who were all traded for as already drafted players? Claesson and even the McQuaid trade? The non buyouts of other vets? Coaching actively trying to win every game partly by using the vets which are still present?

I guess in my mind I'd like to see that just progress, it's not a tank, there is no rush job, it's just allowing the former roster to organically unwind while building a new roster which can take over with sights set on improving the ceilings of the new roster in general and specifically.

I'd like to see them just let the process play out, the pre Zibanejad roster is slated to be completely unwound in two off-seasons from now, if not sooner, why not let that also just happen naturally without trying to make major dynamic shifts beforehand?

During that process they are going to gain valuable information on all these new prospects, hopefully that information leads to good choices when they need to be made. By them staying flexible both cap and roster they are in good position should ideal opportunities arise.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

I dont think anyone argues that they did not try to be competitive in 2017. They were trying to rebuild "on the fly". (Cant remember if these were the exact words or not that was used after the hammering by the Pens in the 2016 playoffs.) And they were trying to rebuild. They wanted to get younger, and they wanted to remove the old core. Trade the most valuable players in McDonagh and Stepan. Hank and Nash had NMCs. But they did not plan to tear it down. They got rid of a couple of older players each year. But the plan to rebuild on the fly failed, so in 2018 they decided to tear it all down.

I think the word was "Re-Tool" (one step down from a rebuild). Which they were trying to do, but that didnt last long obviously.

 

[McRanger]

Sebastian Aho got drafted 139th overall.

I doubt he was talking about the Islanders Aho.

 

[Off Sides]

The playoffs are different, the series style against one and only one team for several games in a row, the officiating standard, the intensity level, the teams playing against only other playoffs teams, the small sample size, variance without much time to return to any mean or average.

So why should regular season metrics carry much relevance in a comparison?

 

[ETTER DE]

I think the word was "Re-Tool" (one step down from a rebuild). Which they were trying to do, but that didnt last long obviously.

Maybe that was used in 2016. In june 2017 Gorton called it a rebuild on the fly.
I do not now if it is allowed to link to articles, but if you google Jeff Gorton rebuild on the fly the first that comes up is an article on SNY from june 24th 2017 with the title: "The Rangers admit they are trying to rebuild on the fly". Gorton said so on NBCSN.

 

[Beacon]

I trust our staff to find the right guy at 15. I know what the odds are but just off the top of my head, McAvoy was at 14, Karlsson was at 15, Pastrnak was at 25.

There is talent to be had at that pick.

On occasion you get lucky and a prospect exceeds expectations. On occasion you get lucky and the slot machine hits the jackpot, that doesn't mean that going to Atlantic City has the same odds of earning money as going to work.

Getting a star in the top-2 is expected in most drafts. Getting a star at #15 is dumb luck because it only happens when a player simply exceeds all expectations. There is no way to predict a #15 becoming an All Star or else someone would grab him way earlier. A later pick is a lottery ticket that sometimes pays off, but most of the time turns into nothing.

Besides Erik Karlsson, nobody drafted in the last 20+ years scored over 228 career points. And that's not exactly a superstar number. The median player drafted at #15 since 1997 has a total of 7 career NHL points. The last player other than EK taken at #15 who was actually pretty good was Kovalev, drafted in 1991. The median player taken at #14 has 43 career NHL points. Shattenkirk and Jaden Schwartz are probably the 2 best #14s drafted between 1980-2014.

That's not a sign of talent, it's a sign of occasional luck. Mid-firsts routinely bust. That's why GMs are so much more likely to trade away a first rounder for a rental than fans, who buy into propaganda and overrate later first rounders. GMs know the truth. That's why you need to rebuild properly, not just hope your 15OA pick will be EK.

 

[Dijock94]

On occasion you get lucky and a prospect exceeds expectations. On occasion you get lucky and the slot machine hits the jackpot, that doesn't mean that going to Atlantic City has the same odds of earning money as going to work.

Getting a star in the top-2 is expected in most drafts. Getting a star at #15 is dumb luck because it only happens when a player simply exceeds all expectations. There is no way to predict a #15 becoming an All Star or else someone would grab him way earlier. A later pick is a lottery ticket that sometimes pays off, but most of the time turns into nothing.

Besides Erik Karlsson, nobody drafted in the last 20+ years scored over 228 career points. And that's not exactly a superstar number. The median player drafted at #15 since 1997 has a total of 7 career NHL points. The last player other than EK taken at #15 who was actually pretty good was Kovalev, drafted in 1991. The median player taken at #14 has 43 career NHL points. Shattenkirk and Jaden Schwartz are probably the 2 best #14s drafted between 1980-2014.

That's not a sign of talent, it's a sign of occasional luck. Mid-firsts routinely bust. That's why GMs are so much more likely to trade away a first rounder for a rental than fans, who buy into propaganda and overrate later first rounders. GMs know the truth. That's why you need to rebuild properly, not just hope your 15OA pick will be EK.

This is enlightening.

 

[EpicDing]

On occasion you get lucky and a prospect exceeds expectations. On occasion you get lucky and the slot machine hits the jackpot, that doesn't mean that going to Atlantic City has the same odds of earning money as going to work.

Getting a star in the top-2 is expected in most drafts. Getting a star at #15 is dumb luck because it only happens when a player simply exceeds all expectations. There is no way to predict a #15 becoming an All Star or else someone would grab him way earlier. A later pick is a lottery ticket that sometimes pays off, but most of the time turns into nothing.

Besides Erik Karlsson, nobody drafted in the last 20+ years scored over 228 career points. And that's not exactly a superstar number. The median player drafted at #15 since 1997 has a total of 7 career NHL points. The last player other than EK taken at #15 who was actually pretty good was Kovalev, drafted in 1991. The median player taken at #14 has 43 career NHL points. Shattenkirk and Jaden Schwartz are probably the 2 best #14s drafted between 1980-2014.

That's not a sign of talent, it's a sign of occasional luck. Mid-firsts routinely bust. That's why GMs are so much more likely to trade away a first rounder for a rental than fans, who buy into propaganda and overrate later first rounders. GMs know the truth. That's why you need to rebuild properly, not just hope your 15OA pick will be EK.

So you're saying that scouting doesn't actually matter and it all comes down to random chance outside the top 2?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Maybe that was used in 2016. In june 2017 Gorton called it a rebuild on the fly.
I do not now if it is allowed to link to articles, but if you google Jeff Gorton rebuild on the fly the first that comes up is an article on SNY from june 24th 2017 with the title: "The Rangers admit they are trying to rebuild on the fly". Gorton said so on NBCSN.

Rebuild "on the fly" is another way of saying re-tool.

But look at his actions...

He traded Stepan, but turned around and extended Smith and signed Shattenkirk. He also bought out Girardi to open up some cap space, which I've already mentioned.

Those are not moves that are consistent with a rebuild.

Moves that are? Trading your Captain and #1 D, your leading goal scorer, A few depth defensemen and a long term piece who you gave up a bundle to get one season...

And then your leading point scorer for 3 of the last 4 seasons, a depth defenseman and #2 C (who they could have signed and half of this board would have celebrated) the next.

I think it's fair to say that Gorton was mulling over the process of rebuilding at the 2017 draft, as @duhmetreE mentioned, but dipping your toe in the pool is a lot different than swimming laps in it.

But at least you've wilted on the "this rebuild started after the Penguins series" nonsense. You're headed in the right direction.

 

[Gardner McKay]

On occasion you get lucky and a prospect exceeds expectations. On occasion you get lucky and the slot machine hits the jackpot, that doesn't mean that going to Atlantic City has the same odds of earning money as going to work.

Getting a star in the top-2 is expected in most drafts. Getting a star at #15 is dumb luck because it only happens when a player simply exceeds all expectations. There is no way to predict a #15 becoming an All Star or else someone would grab him way earlier. A later pick is a lottery ticket that sometimes pays off, but most of the time turns into nothing.

Besides Erik Karlsson, nobody drafted in the last 20+ years scored over 228 career points. And that's not exactly a superstar number. The median player drafted at #15 since 1997 has a total of 7 career NHL points. The last player other than EK taken at #15 who was actually pretty good was Kovalev, drafted in 1991. The median player taken at #14 has 43 career NHL points. Shattenkirk and Jaden Schwartz are probably the 2 best #14s drafted between 1980-2014.

That's not a sign of talent, it's a sign of occasional luck. Mid-firsts routinely bust. That's why GMs are so much more likely to trade away a first rounder for a rental than fans, who buy into propaganda and overrate later first rounders. GMs know the truth. That's why you need to rebuild properly, not just hope your 15OA pick will be EK.

A slot machine and a draft are not even remotely similar. You know that. There is a major human element that can impact a draft, not so much a slot machine. Unless you are implying that scouting is dumb luck, in which case I still disagree.

And I think my point when right over your head (or maybe I didn't articulate it well enough, I dunno). I am saying that if we went that route, I would feel confident in our scouting staff to find that hidden gem. Not necessarily saying I expect them to find it (that would be completely unrealistic), but I feel good about our chances to get a good player with that pick.

 

[mulli25]

I can promise you that no scout associated with a pick like Karlson, Point, Kucherov, Pasta, etc. KNEW they were drafting a slam dunk

Now, they may have thought that player had better odds of breaking out than some of their peers may have thought, and they deserve credit for that. But lets not act like "good scouting" can sniff out a sure fire NHL all star outside of the top 5 with any kind of regularity.

The draft comes down to percentages . Higher picks, more picks, good scouting, etc. are all contributing factors to increasing those odds for success. It might seem like a futile effort when you consider the odds of finding good players in various draft positions, but if a team's odds of success in a given draft can increase from say 12 % to 20%, that's a considerable difference. That can be the difference between being Edmonton and Pittsburgh

 

[leetch99]

I would think there would be a number of teams interested. He's talented--gritty and competitive. If he could take it up a notch or two with his play he's not all that unlike Brad Marchand who has had some of the same control issues.

I'd take Kadri in a heartbeat if we could get a deal on him . He would be our Tkachuk type guy to add with Lemieux....and a real PITA to play against . Adding him and removing Kreider is an upgrade for us . I would not be concerned about the suspensions .

 

[EdJovanovski]

Kadri is a grade A bozo, don't want him anywhere near this organization

 

[Edge]

The main problem here is the owner's and the NHLPA and IMO such a suspension multiplying system would have to be grandfathered in some way in. Kind of wipe the slate clean and then implement starting from the beginning of such and such a season or else you're going to have a lot of resistance from certain teams who have players who have been suspended a lot. But that's part of the issue because there is an internal politics component (there will be teams very actively lobbying for lighter sentences for their player and constantly drawing comparisons to other suspensions the NHL is doling out)--as well as an arbitrariness over the years on suspensions--why that is this is worthy of so many games for one player and almost the same kind of play warrants this many games for another player. There has been this thing over the years as well that during the regular season a player might get 5 games for such and such but in the playoffs---it might be just one or two.

The NHLPA for its part doesn't want its dues paying members suspended for seasons at a time even if said dues paying member remorselessly and seriously injures another dues paying member and continues to play in the same way that he is an active threat to the health and well being of other dues paying members. As in the case of Mr. Wilson the NHLPA will appeal lengthy suspensions.

It's funny, I read all of that, and it's all true.

And from a professional/career focus perspective, I find myself licking my lips wanting to take on that challenge.

 

[Off Sides]

I feel like Luck is part of it, yet I also think scouting, player development beyond draft, also play a large part.

Maybe finding the "stars" past a certain point in the draft falls more on the luck side, yet some teams get more regular roster players out of their drafts than others past the top couple picks.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I feel like Luck is part of it, yet I also think scouting, player development beyond draft, also play a large part.

Maybe finding the "stars" past a certain point in the draft falls more on the luck side, yet some teams get more regular roster players out of their drafts than others past the top couple picks.

Player development is key. It's what has made Tampa the factory that they are (well, for pumping out talent) and it was one thing that Torts excelled at here and is doing so again in Columbus.

It's also why I'm not remotely worried about the Devils moving forward. Their PD sucks balls.