Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIX

[Fugazy]

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[Vitto79]

OK I will bite ....where does brooks say Fox is pencilled in on D?

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Good call on Barrie, but doesn't Hedman play the left side? And Trouba is 25. I went up to 28 (three years older than him), because I figured by the time we're competitive, anyone older than that will likely have already started declining. If you want to go up to 30, you can add Karlsson, Doughty, Subban. Still less than 10 RD better than Trouba.

If you want a guy like Karlsson, you're gonna pay him probably 11M+ per year for 7 years, and he has more significant injury concerns (and is older) than Trouba. Doughty/Jones aren't (and in all likelihood won't become) available. Subban is 30, has 3 years left on his deal, and will then want another contract at age 33 (right when we're hopefully becoming contenders). Maybe Klingberg and Dougie become UFAs at the expiration of their contracts, but it's unlikely. #1 RDs don't become available in their prime often.

In the very rare circumstance that they do become available, it's more likely that they would become available via a Mark Stone-esque sign-and-trade, because losing a #1 RD for nothing is atrocious asset management. This would still cost assets. Karlsson became available because of Ottawa, which is owned/managed historically poorly. And he has injury concerns and will be seeking a 7 year deal at age 29. Trouba is available at age 25 because he's disliked living in Canada/Winnipeg since the day he became an NHLer.

As for the bolded, I agree. I'm definitely not advocating chasing Trouba regardless of cost. I don't see them taking picks and far away prospects. By the time those picks are in their prime, Buff is likely retired/ineffective, Scheifele is on the wrong side of 30, Wheeler would be 36.etc. Their window is now.

I'd build an offer around Skjei. Same age, similar ES output, and has term, which is always important for WPG. If Skjei as the centerpiece doesn't work, there is probably no deal to be made from my perspective.

@Matt4776

I would totally be on board with moving Skjei for Trouba. But I think we would need to have a significant add with that.

I really agree with most of what you're saying and I have absolutely no interest in paying anyone older than 27 long-term, but that being said, I'm just not completely sold on giving what I think we'll have to give to get him.

All the points you make are legitimate, but that's the reason I think he'll cost a boatload. And much more than what I'd be comfortable paying for a guy who has as many question marks as he does.

If it was just money, I'd be 100% on board.

 

[Ola]

I get the concerns about Trouba. I am far from convinced that its fair to say that Trouba is a No 1 D. But the usual context arguments can also be made in favor of him.

1. I will get back to his age later, so let’s establish how old he is. He is born in 94’ and is 25 y/o. That makes him just a year older than TDA and Pionk.

NHL Ds peak age is two years longer than for forward, so getting Trouba at 25 is compareable to getting a forward at 23. 7 years from now puts him at 32 y/o, that is 2 years within the 90% of peak average for Ds (https://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054).

You can of course argue that he has more miles on him than the most Ds, given that he got into the league. That is of course also relevant.

Further, at 25 y/o he is now the age when most D's peak starts (op. cit.).

2. Lets say that the reported numbers are true, that he will get 7 years at 7 million (albeit I would guess at him getting a little more, but the difference should be coffee money). What if he isn't really a good No 1 D?T

First of all, from 25 y/o to 32 y/o you cover the 'best' 7 of his 9 peak years. Statistically, you cannot get a D at a better age.

Second of all, 7m per is not No 1 D money. Drew Doughty established the bench-mark for top No 1 D money when signing for 11m per. OEL signed for a bit cheaper, 8.250m per, but I think he took a discount in relation to what he would get on July 1.

HRR is growing 6,7% on average since the cap was put in force. Even if we count on less natural growth than that, say 4% which is a lot lower in this perspective, Trouba's contract does get cheaper. 7 years ago it was like if he made 5m, and in 7 years guys getting paid the same amount will make 9m. At least.

3. So in the end, you are getting a D that should be in his prime for the entire duration, and you are not quite paying him No 1 D money today and certainly not down the road.

 

[kovazub94]

As it stands now in 2 years the Rangers will have one of the cheapest D corp in the whole league. I will give $7 to Trouba and won’t blink either from a perspective of giving this much to this particular player and in the contest of team’s salary cap.

Trouba injury concerns are also overblown (similar to how it was with Zibanejad). He’s not an overage veteran, this is not EK situation, not even close.

 

[Matt4776]

@Matt4776

I would totally be on board with moving Skjei for Trouba. But I think we would need to have a significant add with that.

I really agree with most of what you're saying and I have absolutely no interest in paying anyone older than 27 long-term, but that being said, I'm just not completely sold on giving what I think we'll have to give to get him.

All the points you make are legitimate, but that's the reason I think he'll cost a boatload. And much more than what I'd be comfortable paying for a guy who has as many question marks as he does.

If it was just money, I'd be 100% on board.

100% and I'm in the same boat. Maybe I'm being optimistic on the cost since Trouba is only one year removed from UFA, seems to be choosy in where he's going, and because Winnipeg likely doesn't want futures. Perhaps I'm wishful in thinking that limits the return some.

 

[EpicDing]

OK I will bite ....where does brooks say Fox is pencilled in on D?

https://nypost.com/2019/04/21/silence-around-lehners-future-is-good-sound-for-islanders/

Trouba, who turned 25 in late February, is likely to command $7 million a year. The Rangers will be among those wanting to give it to him.
This, I believe, would suit the Blueshirts just fine on their 2019-20 right side: 1. Trouba; 2. Adam Fox; 3A. Tony DeAngelo; 3B. Neal Pionk.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

If you are trading for Trouba, you are giving up some combination of:

• One of Skjei/Buch.
• One, may be two of: Andersson, Miller, Lundkvist, Chytil, Kravstov.
• At least 1 non #2 overall 1st round pick.

I dont think they would have any interest in Kreider mainly due to him having just 1 year to UFA.

 

[Ori]

Jacob Trouba is only 25 and it will save Rangers some time with this rebuild - so it will be interesting to see if Jeff Gorton will upgrade their defense this summer.

 

[East Coast Bias]

https://nypost.com/2019/04/21/silence-around-lehners-future-is-good-sound-for-islanders/

Big test for me is Pionk. Big extension is a big mistake in my eyes. The old regime does it without hesitation. Let’s see about now. It’s a big litmus test.

 

[Kovalev27]

I’m amazed when I keep seeing pionk ahead of deangelo in depth charts. Adam Fox shouldn’t even be ahead of DeAngelo. Makes zero sense what are these people watching?!

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

If you are trading for Trouba, you are giving up some combination of:

• One of Skjei/Buch.
• One, may be two of: Andersson, Miller, Lundkvist, Chytil, Kravstov.
• At least 1 non #2 overall 1st round pick.

I dont think they would have any interest in Kreider mainly due to him having just 1 year to UFA.

we're talking about Trouba and not Seth Jones right?

 

[Edge]

I have a sinking feeling that Trouba would end up in this board's dog house really quickly, or at the very least end up one of those players who quickly becomes polarizing.

 

[Fitzy]

I mean, I can't say I'm not interested to ask Brooks how the Rangers plan to make Shattenkirk disappear this summer.

Quibble about the details but it's hard to argue a more perfect RhD to complement Pionk, DeAngelo, or Fox as the other two on the right.

 

[RangerBoy]

Brooksie didn’t mention what happened to Shattenkirk. Where did Kevin go?

That’s the problem with all of these big ticket and big name players. Two years ago, Shattenkirk was the popular guy. Just you wait and see how great the Rangers will look with Shatty. He will be the missing piece to the Rangers Cup run. His name was mentioned by everyone when it became apparent in the summer of 2016 that Shattenkirk was not re-signing with the Blues. The Rangers should trade Kreider for Shattenkirk. The Rangers should trade Zuccarello for Shattenkirk. The trade should happen by the start of training camp. The Rangers will trade for Shattenkirk at the trade deadline. They should give up their #1 to rent Shatty because the Rangers will get a head start on signing him.

Shattenkirk has been here for two years. The guy had been an abysmal failure. He is fat and out of shape. He has a bad knee. Total disaster. He isn’t the Rangers top option on the power play. He wasn’t a top pair D. He isn’t even a second pair option. He was a 3rd pair D who was a power player specialist. He isn’t even that right now.

Shatty this. Shatty that. Shatty. Shatty.

What are the Rangers doing with Shattenkirk? Buying him out is very expensive. There is a $6,083,333 cap hit in 20-21 in a buyout this summer and a $5,316,667 buyout in 20-21 if they wait until next June to buy him out. His trade value has never been lower.

Now it’s Panarin. Now it’s Trouba. It always someone.

I like Trouba but it’s a very complicated deal. Winnipeg will want more than the Rangers want to pay for Trouba. The Rangers have been down this road before with Winnipeg and Trouba. He can sign a one year contract to play out next season and become a free agent after next summer. Free to pick whatever team he wants. He is under no obligation to sign a long term contract with any team trading for him. The contract extension will be be very expensive. $7M-$8M AAV. 7 years max.

 

[Fugazy]

If you are trading for Trouba, you are giving up some combination of:

• One of Skjei/Buch.
• One, may be two of: Andersson, Miller, Lundkvist, Chytil, Kravstov.
• At least 1 non #2 overall 1st round pick.

I dont think they would have any interest in Kreider mainly due to him having just 1 year to UFA.

That seems like a bit too much for Trouba, no?

 

[Off Sides]

Trouba is really good in his own zone, not sure I see him being a 50 point defender going forward, I actually kind of doubt it. He's not that much of a natural PP player in my opinion.

I'm also not sure the 7M cap hit, I'd guess more like 8M.

Given the Jets have the option to go one year, and self rent or even sell, he's going to cost a bunch in trade, then a bunch in extension. Without an extension in place it's way too risky to trade for him.

I'm not thinking he is the player to pay all that for. If he ends up as a UFA next off-season, I'd go with a solid maybe depending on how much he wanted then.

 

[Matt4776]

That seems like a bit too much for Trouba, no?

**Trouba with one year of control before UFA status.

 

[NernieBichols]

Hate to burst the bubbles of the guys making this argument. Erixon: If unsigned had to go back into the draft as opposed to become a UFA. So erixon didn’t have to sign with Calgary but without a trade he wouldn’t have been able to just sign with the rangers. So that’s the difference. Calgary had that leverage: we won’t trade him to you and then he’ll be re-drafted and you won’t be able to draft him. Carolina doesn’t have that leverage.

 

[Riche16]

Again the timing seems off to me on Trouba. Yes he’s a good RHD and they don’t grow on trees but similar to Panarin he’d be here for two years while we find out what we are missing / in need of to become a playoff team. Not a true contender.

In two years ur free of Staal and Kirk and Hanks cap.

By then u will know as well what ADA is or isn’t and the prospects will be more well defined.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Trouba fits into the window. I think he makes a hell of a lot more sense than the UFAs.

He wouldn’t come cheap, but he’s not going to require a quality roster body with control, 2 top prospects and a first round pick. Karlsson didn’t return that.

 

[Edge]

Just not totally sold on Trouba being the top guy on the right side, nor am I sold on his long-term durability.

He's not been asked to be the former, he's had a difficult time with the latter.

That's not an inspiring combination for me, especially when you consider the cost.

 

[DutchShamrock]

And we are back to the biggest issue with the team. Shattenkirk, Smith and Staal. Even if ever single prospect hits, every player improves this season, and age holds off another year for Lundqvist, we are still anchored to the bottom by those 3.

My fingers are crossed that Toronto loses game 7. TML overreacts, and listens to Babcock about adding playoff types. We trade Smith for Horton. Former Babcock player, looked great during his last postseason, edge and abrasive. Tough reputation. Horton has 1 year left and will go to LTIR which isn't an issue for us.

Toronto isn't going to want another team dictating their Marner contract. They'll have to pay him on par with Matthews, bottom line. If they have the overage cap tied up in Horton, they get a scenario where a team overpays Marner and pushes Toronto beyond the 10% buffer. Nylander and his apx $7m won't go to Carolina until after his 7/1 bonus. Gardiner isn't off the cap until then too. Smith is cheaper and he is a roster player.

The Marner camp will be ruthless. Any leverage will be exploited. They'll tell Dubas "give me this deal, or I'll wait until July 1 and get x and you will lose me for picks because you can't match". If Marner signs July 1, Carolina then has leverage on a Nylander deal. Toronto has to dump cap and the world knows. Do the Smith deal before July 1 and the Horton cap is gone. Dubas can dictate the terms again and balance the scales.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Yeah Larry, Fox is 2 and ADA is “3A”. f***ing dumbass.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

At least he had him ahead of Pionk?