Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIX

[Gardner McKay]

I can promise you that no scout associated with a pick like Karlson, Point, Kucherov, Pasta, etc. KNEW they were drafting a slam dunk

Now, they may have thought that player had better odds of breaking out than some of their peers may have thought, and they deserve credit for that. But lets not act like "good scouting" can sniff out a sure fire NHL all star outside of the top 5 with any kind of regularity.

The draft comes down to percentages . Higher picks, more picks, good scouting, etc. are all contributing factors to increasing those odds for success. It might seem like a futile effort when you consider the odds of finding good players in various draft positions, but if a team's odds of success in a given draft can increase from say 12 % to 20%, that's a considerable difference. That can be the difference between being Edmonton and Pittsburgh

Of course they didn't. To think that is absolutely absurd. Jesus. Some major overreactions here.

 

[East Coast Bias]

The issue is that he didn't do it already.

There are problems with that team that go beyond their defense. Even if they had gotten by Boston, that team was getting smoked by Columbus.

Dubas took over in May 2018. Couldn't maximize Nylander's value with the contract situation. The jury is still out there on how to address some holes.

All of this discussion is because people are scared of signing Panarin, and so in turn are trying to vilify the Tavares deal and claim the Leafs are morons, Dubas sucks, they'll never win, etc. Which is all dumb. Because you can very validly say we're 2-3 years behind where the Leafs were when they signed Tavares, and be done with it.

They're what, 2-3 years into a run led by 2-3 studs who are under 22 and Tavares who is 28? I would kill for that. This is all very silly.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Dubas took over in May 2018. Couldn't maximize Nylander's value with the contract situation. The jury is still out there on how to address some holes.

All of this discussion is because people are scared of signing Panarin, and so in turn are trying to vilify the Tavares deal and claim the Leafs are morons, Dubas sucks, they'll never win, etc. Which is all dumb. Because you can very validly say we're 2-3 years behind where the Leafs were when they signed Tavares, and be done with it.

They're what, 2-3 years into a run led by 2-3 studs who are under 22 and Tavares who is 28? I would kill for that. This is all very silly.

That is silly, I think most of what hes done has been good.

I do think that he was more reluctant to trade Nylander than he should have been. There was a time where Pietriangelo may have been possible depending on what you believe. At the very least, they have plenty of other chips they could have used for a D, and its something that will 100% need to be addressed this offseason (along with diversifying their lineup.)

I'd love to have their big guns as well, what I wouldn't want is to build a team the way that they have. Neglecting defense and building a pond hockey squad will never win in this league.

FWIW, they should be the model we're following, as long as we do all the things they did right and avoid the things that they did wrong.

 

[Edge]

At the end of the day, I don't hate Dubas or Toronto.

I just think you need to see if something actually works before you view it as the model to emulate.

That's why you wait and see if the prototype actually flies before you begin mass production and strap people into the seats.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

The lesson you learn from Toronto is that you still need grinding players even in the new nhl and a decent d in playoffs. You cant be a team full of softies who wont get to the middle of the ice or aren't a threat to opposing dmen chasing the puck in their own corner.

 

[SA16]

At the end of the day, I don't hate Dubas or Toronto.

I just think you need to see if something actually works before you view it as the model to emulate.

That's why you wait and see if the prototype actually flies before you begin mass production and strap people into the seats.

How do you know if something works? Winning Stanley cups isn’t a good judge when going into the playoffs the best team is almost never more than 25% to win it

 

[pld459666]

I'd call their bluff

 

[pld459666]

It isn't like Kakko has been billed to be the next Malkin or Eichel. I feel like if he turned into an EP, we would be thrilled.

It isn't really about fair value for me. It is about taking the known quantity.

I like EP, but I'm always hesitant to evaluate a player based on one year.

 

[pld459666]

Say Dallas calls the Rangers and says, you know we would like to extend Zucc, yet not if we have to give up the 2020 1st.

Would the Rangers at that point be willing to say something like, well what if we add a bit to Zucc, then would you consider extending him and giving up the 1st?

If all it takes to make that compromise happen is what they'd likely get back for say Fast anyway, why not? Even if they have to say take back only a 4th instead of a 3rd, does it really matter in the bigger scheme of them getting Dallas 2020 1st?

Dallas depth at forward behind Seguin and Benn is Radulov

Not much there at all.

I'd call their bluff if they called and stated the 1st is to much to give up if they signed Zuccs.

I'm not doing them any favors

 

[Thirty One]

I like EP, but I'm always hesitant to evaluate a player based on one year.

Kakko and Hughes have 0 years though.

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

EP's draft + 1 year in Sweden was also so good that I think he was the expected frontrunner for the Calder before the season started. I'd trade Kakko for EP but it doesn't matter, it's not going to happen, and I can still be (very) wrong

Anyone worried about Zucc signing a one year deal somewhere else, then ending up back with the Stars? Seems a bit underhanded, but that's the hole in the deal we made with them. Guess guys that age usually want to get the most years/term they can.

 

[kovazub94]

Dallas depth at forward behind Seguin and Benn is Radulov

Not much there at all.

I'd call their bluff if they called and stated the 1st is to much to give up if they signed Zuccs.

I'm not doing them any favors

I think it's a valid point that losing two consecutive 1st rounders might be considered too rich for Dallas' GM. If they reach WCF then couldn't they decide that going after Skinner (for example) plus keeping 2020 first would be preferable to signing Zuke?

 

[pld459666]

Kakko and Hughes have 0 years though.

I'll take my chances with the unknown.

If it turns out not good for us, so be it. But I'd hate this team if they made a move and Kakko/ Hughes turned out to be better players.

I know it flies in the face somewhat, but I've come to grips with it lol

 

[kovazub94]

I just can't believe that I'm seeing posters expressing a desire to get Kadri. He probably single-handedly cost Toronto this playoff run, and he's a repeat offender at this type of offense, so likely it will happen again. If anything should be advocating for resigning homegrown Hayes and keeping whatever assets Kadri deal would've cost.

 

[pld459666]

I think it's a valid point that losing two consecutive 1st rounders might be considered too rich for Dallas' GM. If they reach WCF then couldn't they decide that going after Skinner (for example) plus keeping 2020 first would be preferable to signing Zuke?

With just about 18 million to spend, they can sign both Skinner AND Zuccs and really address their forward depth.

 

[kovazub94]

With just about 18 million to spend, they can sign both Skinner AND Zuccs and really address their forward depth.

That wasn't the point. The point was two 1st round picks.

 

[Beacon]

So you're saying that scouting doesn't actually matter and it all comes down to random chance outside the top 2?

You're obviously oversimplifying it and you know it. Scouting matters on the margins and long term it makes a difference. For ex, good scouting can give you 1 in 3 chance of a top-6 hit drafting around #15OA. Bad scouting 1 of 6 times. Over enough years, with more than just first rounders effected, you have the first team with 6 good forwards and 4 good defensemen, contending for the Cup, and the other team with 3 good forwards and 2 good defensemen as bottom feeders.

But in both cases, when drafting around #15OA, you probably get a bust. At the same time, drafting in the top-2 likely produces great results. Sure, you can miss on Nail, but you hit on McDavid or at least Hall. High drafting is not enough alone because 19 guys play every night and you wont have 19 picks in the top-2, which is why Edmonton sucks. You still need later picks to succeed and not to trade away Hall and Eberle for Larsson and Spooner. But without high drafting, it becomes that much more difficult because in the modern era of great scouting, talents like Zubov, Weight and Amonte probably dont slide very far down.

In the old days, GMs would talk of discovering or finding someone. Chara was a total unknown and Milbury drafted him based on a video of a 6'9 guy skating really well. That doesn't happen today. Today Chara would go 3rd overall, not in the third round (almost as soon as Chara was discovered, THN and others began ranking him in the top-10 of all prospects league-wide).

With improved scouting, having earlier draft picks will be that much more crucial in the coming years.

 

[Beacon]

A slot machine and a draft are not even remotely similar. You know that. There is a major human element that can impact a draft, not so much a slot machine. Unless you are implying that scouting is dumb luck, in which case I still disagree.

And I think my point when right over your head (or maybe I didn't articulate it well enough, I dunno). I am saying that if we went that route, I would feel confident in our scouting staff to find that hidden gem. Not necessarily saying I expect them to find it (that would be completely unrealistic), but I feel good about our chances to get a good player with that pick.

I'm moderately confident in our scouting, but the reality is that the position where you draft matters. We are ok with the Skjei pick and regard it as successful because of how late he was drafted. If we drafted Skjei at 2OA, he'd be hated now. Yes, our scouts can do well with a 15OA pick ... for a 15OA pick. But I'd much rather they do well for a 4OA pick in 2020.

Let's rebuild until our kids force their way into the playoffs, not with mercenaries.

 

[NYR Viper]

I think it's a valid point that losing two consecutive 1st rounders might be considered too rich for Dallas' GM. If they reach WCF then couldn't they decide that going after Skinner (for example) plus keeping 2020 first would be preferable to signing Zuke?

I believe Nill believes he needs to push right now. Dallas has had some issues building scoring depth. They tried with Nichuskin and Hanzal. Benn and Seguin are in their prime. They have a stud on defense as well. I don’t think Nill will care if they make the WC final and they resign Zucc he’ll gladly give up the picks. That market needs to be successful

 

[GAGLine]

That wasn't the point. The point was two 1st round picks.

One of those picks would be 28th to 31st and the other could be late as well. They could let Zucc walk, try to sign Skinner, and end up with neither. I don't see Nill being that worried about the pick that he would risk it. They like Zucc and if Zucc likes it there, there's no reason not to re-sign him.

 

[SA16]

I just can't believe that I'm seeing posters expressing a desire to get Kadri. He probably single-handedly cost Toronto this playoff run, and he's a repeat offender at this type of offense, so likely it will happen again. If anything should be advocating for resigning homegrown Hayes and keeping whatever assets Kadri deal would've cost.

If Kadri single-handedly cost Toronto the playoffs shouldn't you want him on the team? That would indicate that he's extremely good if the loss of him had that big of an impact.

 

[Lundy HOF]

It's not wrong.

The Leafs accomplished nothing with their Tavares signing. They lost in 7 games last season to Boston. They lost in 7 games this year to Boston. The Bruins aren't some great team either. They have 4 forwards. 5 forwards if DeBrusk feels like playing. The Bruins have their own issues.

The stupid Leafs wanted to accelerate their rebuild. Lou gave Marleau a 3 year 35 plus contract. They still have another year on the contract. Marleau doesn't want to go anywhere. The player's best days were behind him years ago.

Gorton likes to say he has looked at other teams have rebuilt. The Leafs are one of those teams. He now needs to look at how they made free agent signings and didn't make their team better.

Look no further than those two contracts. They took the Caps to 6 games in 2016 and decided to accelerate the rebuild. They have not won a playoff series in the last two years.

Tavares has a 2-3 year window. One year is already gone. The Leafs will have $40M tied up in 4 forwards after Marner gets paid this season. Add Rielly and Andersen. $50M in 6 players. Add $6.25M for Marleau. The cap will be $83M. The Leafs aren't winning the Cup with this group.

Gorton needs to look at the Leafs as a reason to not accelerate the rebuild through free agency. The Leafs are now in cap purgatory. They don't have enough money to fill out their roster. Top heavy. Not much depth. Their blue line is bad.

Good luck to Brendan Shanahan and Kyle Dubas.

While pushing the timeline up is not a thought that should be dismissed, I think it is disingenuous to call out the Tavares signing as bad. JT is a great player. The real botch job from Dubas was his inability or lack of desire to love a quality forward piece for a quality defensive piece.

The blueline is not good and the Muzzin trade would have looked a lot better if he was a right handed shot.

 

[Ola]

On Toronto, one thing I’ve commented on a few times in connection with our sell-offs are that it was a bit unfortunate that they occurred kind of in a gap between generations of strong teams. There were nobody that really were desperate when we made those sell-offs. But that it was only a matter of time before Toronto, Winnipeg and co went there.

And sure enough, here we are, and the crap has hit the fan in Toronto. Two years ago everything was perfect in Toronto, and if you would have said ‘wait until you guys failed to win a Cup in two play-offs and everyone will got ape and lose all patience and be ready to blow things up’ — and you would have been laughed off the board.

If Kakko becomes a 40+50 player and Kravy a top 10 forward in the league, will we go nuts if we haven’t won a Cup before the summer of 2022? I am 100% sure of it. There is no patience either here or in Toronto. But that is tomorrow’s concern.

The thing is, you cannot build a legit contender in this league. Why?

1. You don’t have cap space to build a good enough team.

2. Too many teams knows they got a shot, and go for it every year. That wasn’t the case 20 year ago when so many teams knew one of 3-4 teams would win and kind of continuously were rebuilding on the fly.

3. There are 31 teams in the league. Not 24. Before you had 24 teams and no cap, for a long period the Canadian teams couldn’t compete, a few US teams didn’t have resources, like maybe 15 teams had a shot at playing for it. Now it’s like what 28-29 teams.

4. Most importantly, you build a dominant team over many many years. The system we have now doesn’t allow that.

Just look at Pittsburgh, Crosby is as generational as it gets and Malkin is darn close and has even been better than him many years. By far, they — still — don’t even remotely get close to win a Cup most years.

I would bet that Toronto wouldn’t even have had a 50% shot at winning a Cup this season even if they got McDavid or Hedman or someone like that on an ELC before the season. It’s not Dubas fault. He didn’t stand in front of three doors of which one lead to a Cup. Who knows, if they don’t get Tavares they might suck more. Or they might end up paying really big bucks to depth guys who get their stats boosted by Matthews and Marner.

You must be in it for the long run. Have a grade A organization that does a better job than everyone else. Improve your odds, it’s the best you can do.

 

[Beacon]

The lesson you learn from Toronto is that you still need grinding players even in the new nhl and a decent d in playoffs. You cant be a team full of softies who wont get to the middle of the ice or aren't a threat to opposing dmen chasing the puck in their own corner.

You need high quality defensemen to win. When the Devils were winning, they had very mediocre forward group, but an amazing blue line and goalie. You need great forwards to sell jerseys, but defense to win the Cup.

 

[trilobyte]

I just can't believe that I'm seeing posters expressing a desire to get Kadri. He probably single-handedly cost Toronto this playoff run, and he's a repeat offender at this type of offense, so likely it will happen again. If anything should be advocating for resigning homegrown Hayes and keeping whatever assets Kadri deal would've cost.

Kadri did develop into a good hockey player, as far as hockey skill and improving his game. There is something not quite right about him, and I have witnessed it more than a few times. For me, it's not a case of my inability or unwillingness to cut a player slack and give them another chance, but more just simple recognition of behaviour that hurts your team. He is more than likely to go off the deep end again, and again.
I think of Hayes as wanting to get probably 5 year term at a hit the Rangers might not see as optimal for them, especially if they still need to see where the current prospects slot. It's not that Hayes is not of some value, but I doubt the Rangers see that kind of middling player as a want or need at this time.