Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXV - Time to say Goodbye

[FireGerardGallant]

I think he plays both the C and Wing? But I would be lying if I said I knew for sure.

I definitely see your point with giving up two firsts, but Marner will be 22 in May...I would give up two firsts for an elite, proven young player like him.

He's been hitched to Tavares wing all year and last year he spent most of his time playing with Bozak and JVR. And yes Marner is one of the best young players in the league but giving up 2 future firsts when this team still has a ton of holes in it could be disastrous

 

[Edge]

I do wonder if, on some level, there were some questions about the durability of Matthews and a desire to see how the next half-decade goes.

I don't necessarily view this as a bad deal for Toronto.

 

[Ola]

Girardi’s relative numbers improved — extremely — much when he left us. If Girardi had been a TBL for life he would be presented as an OK possession driver in the advanced stats thread. And the conclusion would be that while Girardi is an OK possession driver we should really stay away from that Anton Stralman guy because he comes in at CF% 46% and a minus rel CF of just south of 7%...

 

[ecemleafs]

Strange contract for the leafs side of things. Huge AAV and they didnt buy out a whole lot of years. Matthews will be getting paid more than twice as much as zibanejad over the next 3 years.

 

[Edge]

With Marner, I sometimes wonder what happens when you get away from an environment like Toronto, which seems to play to his strengths perfectly.

I just have a lot of unease when we start talking about guys, coming from stacked offensive teams where we can almost overlook that they're playing with higher ranking elite players.

 

[BringBackLibertys]

Strange contract for the leafs side of things. Huge AAV and they didnt buy out a whole lot of years. Matthews will be getting paid more than twice as much as zibanejad over the next 3 years.

But part of that is because by the end of this deal the way he is trending Zibs will be the best contract in hockey, on par with the D in Nashville not named Suban.

 

[effen]

Thats a dumb reason... Do whats best for him learning hockey not his ego

These are not separate things. There is a human element to this that is a lot more important than you're giving credit for.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

I don't see any issue with Matthews AAV. Kid is elite PPG+ macking the league up.

Anybody do Nylander for our top-10 first rnd pick?

 

[effen]

I do wonder if, on some level, there were some questions about the durability of Matthews and a desire to see how the next half-decade goes.

I don't necessarily view this as a bad deal for Toronto.

I think it's a great deal for Toronto. Square away your franchise player for the market price he was always going to get without the months to years long media circus.

 

[effen]

I don't see any issue with Matthews AAV. Kid is elite PPG+ macking the league up.

Anybody do Nylander for our top-10 first rnd pick?

No. Improving the team any more than happens organically before the Staal/Shattenkirk/Smith contracts are in their last year is counterproductive. You can do it then.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I don't see any issue with Matthews AAV. Kid is elite PPG+ macking the league up.

Anybody do Nylander for our top-10 first rnd pick?

Nope. I have little to no faith in Nylander's ability to produce at that rate outside of Toronto. Pretty much what Edge said above. He is a complimentary piece IMO.

 

[NYR Viper]

The Rangers should just wait the 5 years until Matthews and Marner will hit UFA. In the meantime continue to stockpile assets and be smart with their cap space.

 

[Inferno]

Nope. I have little to no faith in Nylander's ability to produce at that rate outside of Toronto. Pretty much what Edge said above. He is a complimentary piece IMO.

All this.

 

[Gardner McKay]

All this.

Would I take Nylander? Sure, for the right price. For a top 10 pick? No.

Also - sorry for never getting back to you last week. Took a day off and decided to stay as far away from my phone as possible.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Alright, so Nylander's contract is a grenade, to stay away from.

 

[GAGLine]

With Marner, I sometimes wonder what happens when you get away from an environment like Toronto, which seems to play to his strengths perfectly.

I just have a lot of unease when we start talking about guys, coming from stacked offensive teams where we can almost overlook that they're playing with higher ranking elite players.

I have the same concerns, but Marner did put up 18 points in the 14 games Matthews has missed this year, and 24 points in the 20 games he missed last year. Last year they didn't have Tavares and this year they didn't have Nylander (or if they did, he didn't contribute much). I'd be much less concerned about Marner being a product of the team than Nylander.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

As long as Marner knows someone got his back, he'll be lighting it up. Has he ever been hit hard? Does that impact his game?

Between Nylander and Marner, I think both would do well on other teams.

 

[RangerBoy]

The Leafs f***ed themselves with the Tavares contract.



Shanahan gave Tavares $11M and expects his other guys to take less. Brendan didn't take less in his career. Cap. No cap. It doesn't matter. Good luck getting Marner at their price.



Good luck.

 

[Bob Richards]

What I have learned is that having too many good, young players is actually bad because they all become really expensive and we can't afford them.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

^^^
It's a good problem to have. If they were using some of their offensive pieces to bring back legit D help, there would be no issue.

Gaudy offensive forwards get the biggest paydays. TOR would save quite a bit of money doing a hockey trade to bring back a similar aged D to one of Marner or Nylander.

 

[Kupo]

The Leafs ****ed themselves with the Tavares contract.



Shanahan gave Tavares $11M and expects his other guys to take less. Brendan didn't take less in his career. Cap. No cap. It doesn't matter. Good luck getting Marner at their price.



Good luck.

 

[Trxjw]

The Leafs situation is good food for thought when it comes to "accelerating the rebuild."

 

[True Blue]

^^^
It's a good problem to have.

Yeah, let's actually get there and then bemoan the situation. Besides, if that really is an issue, they make for good potential trade options. One can make a deal and get more assets into the organization. Just need to identify which pieces one is willing to move for the right deal.

 

[SA16]

Great post and I agree, he should be sent to the AHL. Get a bigger role.

But I honestly don’t at all buy that Howden is one of the worst players in the NHL. And in a stronger environment I think he would perform a lot better in those cathegories. I don’t even think a winger can have that much impact on a line/the play on the ice. If it’s anywhere you can carry a player it’s on the wing even if the player sucks.

Like look at Dan Girardi. I am not saying that you trashed him, I don’t remember, many thought he was the worst player in the NHL by far when he played for us.

Two years later he is coming in at CF% 51.5% and ‘only’ a minus rel of 1.5.

Has Girardi improved his game like 10x since he left us? If these metrics are supposed to be as reliable as they are presented — can anyone explain Girardis numbers? Did he improve a ton when he is what 34 y/o?

Serious question - not really directly at you. How many non top 5 or 10 picks out of a Canadian Junior League came straight to the NHL with none/extremely minimal AHL time? I have to imagine it's extremely low. It's hard for me to understand why Howden should be an exception to this because it certainly isn't like he's dominating the league and forcing his way into a big role.

 

[DutchShamrock]

A 5 year deal makes Matthews a UFA at 27 and buys only one UFA year. And at that cap hit? Don't know what Toronto is thinking here.

My read is that going longer would have brought the AAV up with the UFA years bought. Marner won't settle for a penny less than Matthew's so Toronto had to thread a needle of keeping the average low while also buying enough years.

Marner's dad has a chip on his shoulder. He goes out of his way to talk to the media and always brings up how Mitch has been the top player at all levels of his career. It eats at him that he isn't viewed on Matthews, McDavid and others. The Marner camp is looking for respect and recognition. He isn't going to be #3 and won't settle for a discount. If it takes an offersheet, so be it.