Speculation: Roster Building Frenzy Part XX

[HockeyBasedNYC]

FWIW I think Dom was relatively accurate with his predictions for US, for this season that just passed, at least in his standings/finish predictions.

So yeah take it with a grain of salt but he's also been right about some things.

Im sure hell get some things right but if his model is accurate than the extremes (best and worst improved) should pan out most of the time.

I think his studies yield some interesting results but as much as we want to point to his statistical analysis being based in "fact", it is still very much based on subjective measurements.

 

[mas0764]

The Rangers didn't do themselves any favors with some of the contracts they handed out to Panarin and Trouba. The 7 year contract to Kreider.

The Rangers do need to become a bigger and tougher team to play against. They aren't winning anything with all skill guys.

Sure, and that's why I said, adding some grit and toughness is good.

Signing Goodrow, everyone loved that move. It was great value in trade and at least decent value in contract. Trading Buch for Blais? Everyone hated it. It was terrible value in trade. Buch was an asset that should have been used to upgrade center, or should have been flipped for max draft picks so that those draft picks could have been moved for a center (or trade up to select one, or accumulate extra picks in next year's draft, etc).

So why did they make such a terrible trade? It's because they are hyper fixated to the point of organizational blindness on this concept of "Must. Get. Toffer."

Adding grit is fine. Getting tougher to play against is fine. Making terrible trades and ignoring that you have the most important position on the ice that still desperately needs an injection of at least one if not two talented, skilled players (they can also be well rounded and defensively minded, but they have to have skill as well), is a complete failure. F-.

We will see what Drury can pull out of his hat but he's either going to have to get Eichel for a song, or come up with some other kind of trade that he can win unforseen (like Brassard for Mika). Trading a package of firsts, Lundkvist and other prospects for Larkin is not a great solution anymore than overpaying for Eichel is.

I loved signing Panarin because he had a combination of enough youth, lack of wear on his treads, and a gameplay style that should translate to high-level production until his mid-to-late thirties, that he could be a guy who was still projectable as a top-line or top-6 player when Kakko and Lafreniere are 25.

Kreider's deal never made any sense on any level in that regard. Forget "how could we know" we'd win the lottery. We didn't know. We still should have known it was an awful idea, because we still should have known we had Panarin, Buch, Kakko and Kravtsov in hand on the wing, and we still should have know that the priority was acquiring a center. Terrible signing all the way around.

Trouba was more forgivable because who knew about Fox or Lundkvist at that time? No one. But by the same token, clinging to him like he's irreplaceable should no longer be on the table. He was paid to be our #1RD. He's now been clearly surpassed by a Norris winner who is going to be here forever. He's moveable. He's especially moveable because you have a clone in Schneider in the pipeline and apparently not that far away.

You can't monetize Trouba for a center? He doesn't have any value? Nonsense. They haven't tried. Because they don't want to try. Because they don't have their priorities straight. Which should be, long term contender, get a long term center or two in here. Not more gritty wingers like Othmann.

Unless and until Drury can solve this glaring problem, the firing of Gorton, who apparently did know that he still needed to be taking it patiently and adding more talent to the forward corps, will be a Greek f***ing tragedy for this team's hopes of winning Cups the next decade.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Im sure hell get some things right but if his model is accurate than the extremes (best and worst improved) should pan out most of the time.

I think his studies yield some interesting results but as much as we want to point to his statistical analysis being based in "fact", it is still very much based on subjective measurements.

One of the biggest flaws in his model is regression and progression.
He predicted laf to be a 1-2 win player for us, but he was closer to 1/2 win.
He predicted mika would have about the season he did assuming regression, except mika was sick for 1/2 the season.
not every player fits neatly into a box (disclaimer, im a huge stat/ advanced stat model guy), and its while its important to build a model around certain conditions you also have to build around different scenarios in my opinion.

 

[RGY]

When the Rangers make the playoffs next year, Kreider will demonstrate (once again) is impact during that time of the year. That is where he always finds a way. And then the contract, at just $6 million AAV, will pay its dividends. Book it.

 

[IDvsEGO]

When the Rangers make the playoffs next year, Kreider will demonstrate (once again) is impact during that time of the year. That is where he always finds a way. And then the contract, at just $6 million AAV, will pay its dividends. Book it.

Kreider's contract for his play is a discount for the next few years, and he will likely earn us each penny. The issue was once we got laf it became a logjam at LW. We'll likely look to move CK once his NMC expires.

 

[Thirty One]

When the Rangers make the playoffs next year, Kreider will demonstrate (once again) is impact during that time of the year. That is where he always finds a way. And then the contract, at just $6 million AAV, will pay its dividends. Book it.

I like this post outside of the selective rounding.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

Kreider's contract for his play is a discount for the next few years, and he will likely earn us each penny. The issue was once we got laf it became a logjam at LW. We'll likely look to move CK once his NMC expires.

I don't think it's possible for Kreider's contract to be a discount if he's player 3rd line LW for us.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Man that's what makes the Buch trade hurt even more, if Buch evolved from someone who doesn't even play defence into a two way beast under Quinn; who knows what he would've developed into under Gallant?

For like 25 games...

Buch wasn't the same player over the last 23 games. Everything in his game regressed.

 

[duhmetreE]

When the Rangers make the playoffs next year, Kreider will demonstrate (once again) is impact during that time of the year. That is where he always finds a way. And then the contract, at just $6 million AAV, will pay its dividends. Book it.

I need to temper my expectations.... I've caught myself getting too optimistic. Thinking everyone will have massive years.

But I do expect Kreider to have a 'breakout' year.... It's different this time.... right guys

 

[IDvsEGO]

I don't think it's possible for Kreider's contract to be a discount if he's player 3rd line LW for us.

Not on the 3rd wing, but for what he could've earned on the open market. Additionally if used properly i could still see him 20+ goals considering proper PP time.

 

[DutchShamrock]

 

[gravey9]

This seems like a pretty fair opinion.

So, then it begs the question: who is going to be the Rangers Gourde? I could easily see the idea that they wanted to replicate that very strong Tampa 3rd line.

Was Danault being targeted for that reason? Barron? Dvorak?

There really is no Gourde comparable on the roster right now. Justin Richards is likely the closest thing but he's not that close.

 

[JohnC]

For like 25 games...

Buch wasn't the same player over the last 23 games. Everything in his game regressed.

Shortened season made people forget how inconsistent Buch has always been. He’s always been good for like 1 20 game streak without a goal in his career.

It was masked by not playing a full 82 IMO.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Panarin is worthy of his contract. Kreider and Trouba definitely aren't worthy of theirs. Freaking covid...

I disagree on Trouba, he is likely a mill overpaid but look at how bigger teams just brutally dominated us after his injury. I love Fox, and he deserves the norris but he didn't look like the same player after Trouba got hurt because he had more physically punishing minutes. Trouba has his warts, all players do but he is the type of player you need to counter the Czikas lines, a line like Tampa's last year Coleman line and against bigger skilled players like Malkin or Matthews.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Shortened season made people forget how inconsistent Buch has always been. He’s always been good for like 1 20 game streak without a goal in his career.

It was masked by not playing a full 82 IMO.

Blais is gonna have to be good to justify that trade and he may well be but he needs to be healthy and thats always been a knock.

 

[rangerfan_79]

Shortened season made people forget how inconsistent Buch has always been. He’s always been good for like 1 20 game streak without a goal in his career.

It was masked by not playing a full 82 IMO.

Yeah, I can't get that image of him ripping the monkey off his back after finally scoring a goal after a long drought.

 

[cheech70]

Shortened season made people forget how inconsistent Buch has always been. He’s always been good for like 1 20 game streak without a goal in his career.

It was masked by not playing a full 82 IMO.

Last year he was used as an every down player hence his boost in stats

 

[TheDirtyH]

A lot of the narrative with the Rangers is about adding the pieces to win in the playoffs. But they still have to make the playoffs first for me to even think about that.

I think Dom's article is pretty cut and dry, what came in and what went out, value. I don't think it's precluding any improvements from the roster that remained year to year. I think we all know that this off season we lost a top line winger in Buchnevich. We also added a handful of bottom six and bottom pair defensemen. Obviously Buchnevich is worth more on his own than the guys we added. But our season once again depends on what the youngest players are able to achieve. Personally, I don't think it's out of the question for Kakko and Lafrienere to provide as much value (by Dom's model) as Buchnevich, each. And I think it's very likely that they can do so between the two of them. Kravtsov is a true wild card. Chytil won't be playing with Diguissepe and rookies. He'll be playing with middle six wingers at least. What does that do for is GSVA?

Dom probably realizes this to some extent. I think he's probably right that when you are only looking at who left and who came in, more value left than came in.

Drury spoke about wanting everyone in the organization to understand their role in the team's success. They need to know, to a man, what they have to do, how they have to play, etc. He's made moves that allows for everyone to slot in pretty clearly, with some room for experimentation. Gallant made a point to emphasize that 23 guys have to all be and know they are a part of the team in order to win. I'm not stoked about the value of the moves Drury's made this offseason in isolation, but I'm reserving judgement because I do see the vision a lot more clearly than under Gorton. It'll be up to Gallant and the players to actually improve.

 

[IDvsEGO]

A lot of the narrative with the Rangers is about adding the pieces to win in the playoffs. But they still have to make the playoffs first for me to even think about that.

I think Dom's article is pretty cut and dry, what came in and what went out, value. I don't think it's precluding any improvements from the roster that remained year to year. I think we all know that this off season we lost a top line winger in Buchnevich. We also added a handful of bottom six and bottom pair defensemen. Obviously Buchnevich is worth more on his own than the guys we added. But our season once again depends on what the youngest players are able to achieve. Personally, I don't think it's out of the question for Kakko and Lafrienere to provide as much value (by Dom's model) as Buchnevich, each. And I think it's very likely that they can do so between the two of them. Kravtsov is a true wild card. Chytil won't be playing with Diguissepe and rookies. He'll be playing with middle six wingers at least. What does that do for is GSVA?

Dom probably realizes this to some extent. I think he's probably right that when you are only looking at who left and who came in, more value left than came in.

Drury spoke about wanting everyone in the organization to understand their role in the team's success. They need to know, to a man, what they have to do, how they have to play, etc. He's made moves that allows for everyone to slot in pretty clearly, with some room for experimentation. Gallant made a point to emphasize that 23 guys have to all be and know they are a part of the team in order to win. I'm not stoked about the value of the moves Drury's made this offseason in isolation, but I'm reserving judgement because I do see the vision a lot more clearly than under Gorton. It'll be up to Gallant and the players to actually improve.

I think this hits the point. Dom was merely looking at value in vs value out.

JFresh (who's modeling is fairly accurate as well) has the rangers at the top of the metro right now. And he's repeatedly tried to adjust his model to stop that, but the modeling is saying the rangers will take that jump. I also dont think the model is adjusting for improvements by better coaching and only including player increases.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

I liken this offseason to an NFL team, that is highly skilled, using high draft picks to bolster the offensive and defensive lines.

 

[MarkMessyay11]

I don't think that's fair value. That's not even fair value if Eichel is 100%. 5 pieces for a top 15 center? Not even a top 10 most years of his career? No. A first round pick, sure. Zac Jones, ok. Georgiev, ok. But only one other piece. Another first? Another prospect not in the Rangers top 5, yes. But not more. No way. If he was totally healthy and had a managable cap hit and actually had some playoff experience, then the premium makes more sense, THEN you consider someone in the kravtsov, robertson, chytil range. But Kakko? No way. Not a #2 overall 20 year old + 3 or 4 other assets for Jack Eichel. That's way over the top. I would pass every time on that. if eichel was healthy and didn't have a potentially career altering injury then you might consdier Kakko + 1st round pick and maybe one other pick for Eichel. But Jack's not healthy and has a 10m cap hit. It doesn't make sense to touch any prospect you veiw as a future core piece in that scenario. Any team would be crazy to trade away a core piece for a player that may never be a core piece and hinder you from paying your other core pieces. That's too risky.

There's a difference between what a player is worth and what a player can return in a trade. Strictly looking at worth/value, Eichel @ 50% is probably worth that. Even if it's an overpay, to lock a player like him in at $5M per year for 5 years is indescribably good. And yes, that also assumes he recovers to 100%. To say that's only worth Jones, Georgiev, another non-top 5 prospect and a 1st (presumably late), is silly...

From a trade perspective, I said I wouldn't make that deal regardless of whether or not the value is fair. It's a non-starter for a number of reasons...some of which you listed. Even at 50%, the risk associated with his injury plus trading away (hopefully) significant production at a lower cost shouldn't be worth it to this, or any other organization.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Sure, and that's why I said, adding some grit and toughness is good.

Signing Goodrow, everyone loved that move. It was great value in trade and at least decent value in contract. Trading Buch for Blais? Everyone hated it. It was terrible value in trade. Buch was an asset that should have been used to upgrade center, or should have been flipped for max draft picks so that those draft picks could have been moved for a center (or trade up to select one, or accumulate extra picks in next year's draft, etc).

So why did they make such a terrible trade? It's because they are hyper fixated to the point of organizational blindness on this concept of "Must. Get. Toffer."

Adding grit is fine. Getting tougher to play against is fine. Making terrible trades and ignoring that you have the most important position on the ice that still desperately needs an injection of at least one if not two talented, skilled players (they can also be well rounded and defensively minded, but they have to have skill as well), is a complete failure. F-.

We will see what Drury can pull out of his hat but he's either going to have to get Eichel for a song, or come up with some other kind of trade that he can win unforseen (like Brassard for Mika). Trading a package of firsts, Lundkvist and other prospects for Larkin is not a great solution anymore than overpaying for Eichel is.

I loved signing Panarin because he had a combination of enough youth, lack of wear on his treads, and a gameplay style that should translate to high-level production until his mid-to-late thirties, that he could be a guy who was still projectable as a top-line or top-6 player when Kakko and Lafreniere are 25.

Kreider's deal never made any sense on any level in that regard. Forget "how could we know" we'd win the lottery. We didn't know. We still should have known it was an awful idea, because we still should have known we had Panarin, Buch, Kakko and Kravtsov in hand on the wing, and we still should have know that the priority was acquiring a center. Terrible signing all the way around.

Trouba was more forgivable because who knew about Fox or Lundkvist at that time? No one. But by the same token, clinging to him like he's irreplaceable should no longer be on the table. He was paid to be our #1RD. He's now been clearly surpassed by a Norris winner who is going to be here forever. He's moveable. He's especially moveable because you have a clone in Schneider in the pipeline and apparently not that far away.

You can't monetize Trouba for a center? He doesn't have any value? Nonsense. They haven't tried. Because they don't want to try. Because they don't have their priorities straight. Which should be, long term contender, get a long term center or two in here. Not more gritty wingers like Othmann.

Unless and until Drury can solve this glaring problem, the firing of Gorton, who apparently did know that he still needed to be taking it patiently and adding more talent to the forward corps, will be a Greek f***ing tragedy for this team's hopes of winning Cups the next decade.

Just to play devils advocate. What other trades were available to Drury for Buchnevich? Maybe there just wasn't enough interest in him this year and the prospect of adding salary to him and playing him on the 3rd line would only make his value less the following year. Maybe they felt his value would never be higher than this and they took the best offer they could, thats what i feel happened.

With Trouba, he moved to NY for his wife, he has a ntc, he's not moving.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Could they have dated when they were kids & kissed back then, and then that other girl was some girl he dated, and he ended up getting back with his high school sweetheart? That tweet doesn't necessarily suggest they've been together for 11 years.

Although I do prefer the idea of Mika being some Persian prince with 6 wives.

Mika Polygajad

 

[Shesterkybomb]

If Mika played somewhere else we'd be itching to see him get to free agency. I wouldn't be surprised to see him resigned.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

I need to temper my expectations.... I've caught myself getting too optimistic. Thinking everyone will have massive years.

But I do expect Kreider to have a 'breakout' year.... It's different this time.... right guys

I'm expecting Kreider to have his usual 25 goal, 45-50 point season. I know the contract isn't ideal but I think he gets too much hate around here. He scored 20 goals in 50 games last year. I don't care how he scored them and that most were on the PP. His net front presence on the PP is very disruptive and important for this team. I envision a line of Kreider-Chytil-Goodrow doing some damage.