Speculation: Ronnie's Roulette - 2022 TDL, news, rumors and discussion - Kraken style

[HoseEmDown]

I like this, but like you said…. Not much of an upgrade unless Beniers exceeds expectations.

Yeah there's just no chance this team makes a massive upgrade unless they somehow sign a Guadreau or Forsberg and they raise the games of all the other forwards. Or if Beniers comes in and is a top line player from day 1.

These moves don't really mess with the cap going forward. Adds a few guys who are in the age range of McCann and Dunn, not Kassian though, for a small price. They don't take back massive cap dumps that are useless, Kassian can be useful 10 minutes a night, that don't improve the team. This kinda recycles older vets into a bit younger vets to eventually move on as well. Keeps the team in a competitive but not that competitive pattern until the prospects are ready and then you can make moves to try to win.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Question for cap folks here.

So if we took on Dadanov's contract (assume he waives for us, which he is unlikely to do so), I know we cannot play him this season. But let's say all we do is take on a Dadanov + 1st round pick (2024 1st round), would you guys consider it?

 

[The Marquis]

For a 2024? Is that the only 1st Vegas has?

I’d do it for this or next, if they have it. Not sure about 2024. If it were the only option.. still not sure. That contract for a whole year? Ew. Player is good though. If he works hard next year could be helpful.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

For a 2024? Is that the only 1st Vegas has?

I’d do it for this or next, if they have it. Not sure about 2024. If it were the only option.. still not sure. That contract for a whole year? Ew. Player is good though. If he works hard next year could be helpful.

Well technically their 2023 pick is in play if their 2022 does not end up becoming a top-10 one, which it should not. So maybe it could be a 2023 pick.

That being said, it would be stupid for Vegas to move another 1st out. Should just hold on to their picks at this time because they are bound to having cap issues next season anyway.

 

[Mike Jones]

Hmmm - I thought he could still play in the final regular season games but not in the playoffs.

If that is the case there's nothing stopping Seattle from acquiring him as they aren't in the playoffs anyway.

The bonus is that his contract expires the end of next season so he can be flipped at the '23 deadline for yet another pick. And Seattle clears the contract before they start year 3 - the one where they hope to make the playoffs.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Hmmm - I thought he could still play in the final regular season games but not in the playoffs.

If that is the case there's nothing stopping Seattle from acquiring him as they aren't in the playoffs anyway.

The bonus is that his contract expires the end of next season so he can be flipped at the '23 deadline for yet another pick. And Seattle clears the contract before they start year 3 - the one where they hope to make the playoffs.

Yeah. That was my thinking too. I think he is still a useful player but I doubt a) he waives for us b) other non-playoff teams trying to hit the cap floor probably take like a 2nd round pick for him.

 

[The Marquis]

Yeah. That was my thinking too. I think he is still a useful player but I doubt a) he waives for us b) other non-playoff teams trying to hit the cap floor probably take like a 2nd round pick for him.

Rumour is the 10 teams on his list are built around high taxes, so he wouldn’t have to waive to go to Seattle, unless there are outliers.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Rumour is the 10 teams on his list are built around high taxes, so he wouldn’t have to waive to go to Seattle, unless there are outliers.

Ah. I hope Francis is in on it. This could be a good way then to get some free assets and get a useful player to boot. Take him at 100% and I bet we can flip him at 50% for some good assets at the next TDL. I know Dadanov has not performed great this season but I do like his game and think he can bounce back. I actually prefer him over the likes of Monahan.

 

[The Marquis]

Ah. I hope Francis is in on it. This could be a good way then to get some free assets and get a useful player to boot. Take him at 100% and I bet we can flip him at 50% for some good assets at the next TDL. I know Dadanov has not performed great this season but I do like his game and think he can bounce back. I actually prefer him over the likes of Monahan.

I'll agree on the Monahan take for sure. That 2024 1st could also be leveraged. The rumours are "1st+" is the ask. Hilarious the position Vegas put themselves in. I realize Dadonov can't go down to Henderson, but what's to stop them from just waiving him and not having to lose an asset in the meantime?

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I'll agree on the Monahan take for sure. That 2024 1st could also be leveraged. The rumours are "1st+" is the ask. Hilarious the position Vegas put themselves in. I realize Dadonov can't go down to Henderson, but what's to stop them from just waiving him and not having to lose an asset in the meantime?

Something I picked from their forums is also the potential of getting a prospect like Cormier. I don't know much about Cormier but his stats look good. I will honestly prefer to do something around a B/B+ prospect than a 2nd round pick because we need players further up in their development.

 

[Irie]

Instead of hitting free agency I would target teams that need to open up capspace to sign other players. From Florida I would offer Calgary 23 3rd for Montour. RD with 2 years left at 3.5M, so not that expensive and gives them much needed offensive help on the blueline. I would offer Pittsburgh the Panthers 2nd round pick for Kapanen + 4th. Sign Kapanen to a 4 x 4 deal. 25 year old RW, decent offensive numbers but also plays a very good two way game. Go to Edmonton and say you'll take Kassian for a 23 3rd. He makes 3.5M for the next 2 seasons but adds some grit to the 4th line that the team lacks. Re-sign Fluery, Donato, Geekie, Lind for fairly cheap.

Schwartz - Gourde - Kapanen
Berniers - McCann - Eberle
Tanev - Wennberg -.Donskoi
Donato - Geekie - Kassian
Lind

Dunn - Larsson
Oleksiak - Montour
Soucy - Borgen
Fluery

This isn't much of an upgrade on the roster that started this year but it's a bit younger with guys like Kapanen and Montour instead of Jankrok, Johansson and Giordano. You still have over 4M in cap, that's with Berniers at 3.75 AAV so if he doesn't hit his bonuses more space, so you could take on a LTIR dump like Klefblom or Gardiner if you wanted. The trades you swapped out 3rds and dropped from a late 2nd to 4th so keep most of your capital. Move Soucy and Donskoi at the deadline next year for more picks. Hopefully you drafted someone good this year and are set to get another one next year. The following season should see a few prospects filling in the lineup and guys like Eberle, Wennberg, Kassian, Montour and Driedger nearing UFA so available for trade.

I understand the logic to bring Kassian in for toughness, but your 4th liners should be strong PKers as well. Gourde should not be playing 2 minutes on the PK if he is going to play huge huge minutes in the top 6 player, (even though he is very good on the PK)

At this point, Kassian should be playing in the AHL. He's playing like 7 minutes a night for Edmonton, and he brings next to nothing. If Edmonton moves him this offseason, i think it's going to cost them a whole lot more than a third to get out of that disaster contract.

Would so much rather have Sheahan back, or go after guys like Curtis Lazar or Johan Larsson. Good 4th line defensive guys that make their linemates better and shoulder some of the PK burden. You could probably sign 2 of the 3 for near the cap Kassian would take up.

 

[Irie]

Question for cap folks here.

So if we took on Dadanov's contract (assume he waives for us, which he is unlikely to do so), I know we cannot play him this season. But let's say all we do is take on a Dadanov + 1st round pick (2024 1st round), would you guys consider it?

I think it would depend on Dadonov's attitude.

If he does not want to be here and would be a negative impact in the dressing room, then that 2024 1st is not worth ruining the environment Francis has tried to build around the team.

If he'd be happy to play here, then I think pickling up an extra 1st might be a shrewd move. Dadonov is no where near worth 5mil per year, but he is still useful, which describes several of the players here, so he might fit right in.....

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I think it would depend on Dadonov's attitude.

If he does not want to be here and would be a negative impact in the dressing room, then that 2024 1st is not worth ruining the environment Francis has tried to build around the team.

If he'd be happy to play here, then I think pickling up an extra 1st might be a shrewd move. Dadonov is no where near worth 5mil per year, but he is still useful, which describes several of the players here, so he might fit right in.....

From what @The Marquis mentioned, he is mainly interested in low tax states and that is what was on his NTC. If true, we are a good fit .. LOL.

 

[Irie]

I'll agree on the Monahan take for sure. That 2024 1st could also be leveraged. The rumours are "1st+" is the ask. Hilarious the position Vegas put themselves in. I realize Dadonov can't go down to Henderson, but what's to stop them from just waiving him and not having to lose an asset in the meantime?

They changed the CBA a while back, so that one way contracts count against the cap when sent down. (Thanks Toronto!)

There is a buried contract threshold now, so it is a sliding scale. I think waiving Dadonov would only save them the max threshold which would be like 1 million.

If Dadonov were waived, there would likely be no takers on that contract. There has been talk about trading assets to teams to "entice" them to pick someone up on waivers, but that would be a questionable loophole to NTCs, and the CBA would most definitely file a grievance and likely win.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I understand the logic to bring Kassian in for toughness, but your 4th liners should be strong PKers as well. Gourde should not be playing 2 minutes on the PK if he is going to play huge huge minutes in the top 6 player, (even though he is very good on the PK)

At this point, Kassian should be playing in the AHL. He's playing like 7 minutes a night for Edmonton, and he brings next to nothing. If Edmonton moves him this offseason, i think it's going to cost them a whole lot more than a third to get out of that disaster contract.

Would so much rather have Sheahan back, or go after guys like Curtis Lazar or Johan Larsson. Good 4th line defensive guys that make their linemates better and shoulder some of the PK burden. You could probably sign 2 of the 3 for near the cap Kassian would take up.

The main reason to get Kassian was for the pick so that they remained pick neutral. The 3rd they got for him replaced the one I was gonna use on Montour. Kassian is also playing 12 minutes a night and has more points than Lazar in less games. I would prefer Larsson but I think after this season he probably prices himself out of what you want to pay a 4th liner. I know that doesn't make sense since they'll paying Kassian 3.5M but they are getting something to pay him that.

As for the PK they'll have Tanev back so he can take those minutes. Sheahan is an ok option but he really offers nothing, he's just a body out there. You'll still have money available to get a PK specialist, I just wouldn't pay too much for that. Plus Gourde not being on the first PP keeps him from playing too many minutes so he can still PK.

 

[Irie]

The main reason to get Kassian was for the pick so that they remained pick neutral. The 3rd they got for him replaced the one I was gonna use on Montour. Kassian is also playing 12 minutes a night and has more points than Lazar in less games. I would prefer Larsson but I think after this season he probably prices himself out of what you want to pay a 4th liner. I know that doesn't make sense since they'll paying Kassian 3.5M but they are getting something to pay him that.

As for the PK they'll have Tanev back so he can take those minutes. Sheahan is an ok option but he really offers nothing, he's just a body out there. You'll still have money available to get a PK specialist, I just wouldn't pay too much for that. Plus Gourde not being on the first PP keeps him from playing too many minutes so he can still PK.

Context is important here. The only reason Kassian has points is because he was getting regular shifts with McDavid to protect him.

Since they picked up Kane, I think Kassian has played over ten minutes like maybe once or twice.

Kassian has one assist in the 15+ games he's played since Kane joined the team and he was no longer getting some shifts on McDavid's wing.

He often has played barely 6 minutes a game, and rarely has played much more than 8 since Kane's arrival. So my "like 7 minutes" comment is actually not just strictly hyperbole.

The idea that Sheahan can be replaced by a replacement level call-up is a bad take. Solid 4th line players that can play solid D and not hurt the team when on the ice are not dime a dozen, despite the fact that some people seem to believe that on these boards.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Question for cap folks here.

So if we took on Dadanov's contract (assume he waives for us, which he is unlikely to do so), I know we cannot play him this season. But let's say all we do is take on a Dadanov + 1st round pick (2024 1st round), would you guys consider it?

Are they really offering a 1st? I would jump all over that. You don't need Dadonov for this season anyway, you're trying to evaluate younger players and Berniers is coming hopefully soon. If he doesn't want to be here next year you can always retain and try to move him. At 50% you might get some value for him and you aren't capped out that you can't afford it. Would definitely do this if it was offered.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Context is important here. The only reason Kassian has points is because he was getting regular shifts with McDavid to protect him.

Since they picked up Kane, I think Kassian has played over ten minutes like maybe once or twice.

Kassian has one assist in the 15+ games he's played since Kane joined the team and he was no longer getting some shifts on McDavid's wing.

He often has played barely 6 minutes a game, and rarely has played much more than 8 since Kane's arrival. So my "like 7 minutes" comment is actually not just strictly hyperbole.

The idea that Sheahan can be replaced by a replacement level call-up is a bad take. Solid 4th line players that can play solid D and not hurt the team when on the ice are not dime a dozen, despite the fact that some people seem to believe that on these boards.

Ok, so even if he does suck and you play him 7 minutes, not much less than your typical 4th liner, you are getting something to take him. He also showed he can produce a little when played with better players, so if you need him in the top 6 a few games he can hold his own. He's a better option than True, McCormick and even Lind, plus he brings some grit they don't. His contract is also not bad if you want to just buy him out, only one season where it's over 1M and it saves almost 2M still that year.

If Sheahan was valuable he wouldn't have been waived and he would have teams looking to add him at the deadline. He's not physical, doesn't block shots, isn't even that good in the faceoff circle. He may not very replaceable by a stiff like True but you can find someone better in free agency. He was only signed by Seattle late into the summer cause nobody else wanted him.

 

[Irie]

Ok, so even if he does suck and you play him 7 minutes, not much less than your typical 4th liner, you are getting something to take him. He also showed he can produce a little when played with better players, so if you need him in the top 6 a few games he can hold his own. He's a better option than True, McCormick and even Lind, plus he brings some grit they don't. His contract is also not bad if you want to just buy him out, only one season where it's over 1M and it saves almost 2M still that year.

If Sheahan was valuable he wouldn't have been waived and he would have teams looking to add him at the deadline. He's not physical, doesn't block shots, isn't even that good in the faceoff circle. He may not very replaceable by a stiff like True but you can find someone better in free agency. He was only signed by Seattle late into the summer cause nobody else wanted him.

But Kassian's buyout is nearly 4 milion dollars. He is owed nearly 6 million if you don't buy him out.

I don't see any team taking on that contract for just a 3rd rnd pick. If they would, he'd already be gone out of Edmonton.

At this stage of Kassian's career with what he currently brings, I would much rather play Lind and see if he can develop some than ice Kassian. That would save 4 million that could be wisely used elsewhere too.

With that cap space, you could get a much better value via the UFA market in this covid cap crunch than you are likely to get from Kassian and a later round 3rd.

Sheahan was brought in as Gourde's placeholder, a vet to PK and play some bottom line minutes until the team got healthy.

Seattle had a lot of players from the expansion, so it was always a numbers game, and Sheahan has played 51 games this season, just because he was waived when they had no space due to the dumb idea to carry 8 D all season, doesn't mean he has not played well for them.

Bringing up blocks is puzzling to me. In 11 years, Sheahan has 277 blocks, while Kassian in 11 years has 75. I mean, Gourde, who everyone views as an elite defensive penalty killer only has 117 blocks in 6 years. Reading block stats is like looking at corsi numbers, it is a stat that does not tell you a damn thing about the actual player or what their overall impact in a game is.

But either way, Sheahan does block shots.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Very interesting. Both the fact that we have been mentioned as a destination for Dadonov and also the fact that we were not really entertaining moving Soucy.

 

[The Marquis]

Only a 1st at minimum. 1st plus a prospect is best.

 

[HoseEmDown]

But Kassian's buyout is nearly 4 milion dollars. He is owed nearly 6 million if you don't buy him out.

I don't see any team taking on that contract for just a 3rd rnd pick. If they would, he'd already be gone out of Edmonton.

At this stage of Kassian's career with what he currently brings, I would much rather play Lind and see if he can develop some than ice Kassian. That would save 4 million that could be wisely used elsewhere too.

With that cap space, you could get a much better value via the UFA market in this covid cap crunch than you are likely to get from Kassian and a later round 3rd.

Sheahan was brought in as Gourde's placeholder, a vet to PK and play some bottom line minutes until the team got healthy.

Seattle had a lot of players from the expansion, so it was always a numbers game, and Sheahan has played 51 games this season, just because he was waived when they had no space due to the dumb idea to carry 8 D all season, doesn't mean he has not played well for them.

Bringing up blocks is puzzling to me. In 11 years, Sheahan has 277 blocks, while Kassian in 11 years has 75. I mean, Gourde, who everyone views as an elite defensive penalty killer only has 117 blocks in 6 years. Reading block stats is like looking at corsi numbers, it is a stat that does not tell you a damn thing about the actual player or what their overall impact in a game is.

But either way, Sheahan does block shots.

That's 4M spread out over 4 years, it's not going to kill any budget if they have one. Maybe they need to pay more to move him, fine take the extra assets. I just think for at least next season Kassian can be a 4th line option to give the forward core someone with some grit. Nobody else has any, besides Gourde but you don't want him playing that game too often.

Sheahan has played a lot more because none of the other AHL guys stepped up to take a spot. The other waiver pickups also didn't show anything. It was more a case of being the best of the worst. I brought up blocked shots because you want him on the PK. He has 20 blocks this year, if you are going to be a top PK guy you should be getting more blocks in than that. I don't care what he did back in the day, what he's doing now isn't blocking enough shots or being physical enough to me to bring him back. Gourde doesn't block as many shots because his PK style is about pressure up high and causing turnovers. Sheahan doesn't do that as well, Gourde and Blackwell did.

 

[Irie]

That's 4M spread out over 4 years, it's not going to kill any budget if they have one. Maybe they need to pay more to move him, fine take the extra assets. I just think for at least next season Kassian can be a 4th line option to give the forward core someone with some grit. Nobody else has any, besides Gourde but you don't want him playing that game too often.

You fail to understand that we are talking about 4million actual dollars, not cap hit.

It costs a lot of assets to have teams take on real dollar costs. This is not some fantasy league, and the only teams in the league that don't worry about real dollars are the Rangers and Leafs because they have a crap-ton of revenue.

Sheahan has played a lot more because none of the other AHL guys stepped up to take a spot. The other waiver pickups also didn't show anything. It was more a case of being the best of the worst. I brought up blocked shots because you want him on the PK. He has 20 blocks this year, if you are going to be a top PK guy you should be getting more blocks in than that. I don't care what he did back in the day, what he's doing now isn't blocking enough shots or being physical enough to me to bring him back. Gourde doesn't block as many shots because his PK style is about pressure up high and causing turnovers. Sheahan doesn't do that as well, Gourde and Blackwell did.

Now you're just making shit up

High forwards on the PK don't sprawl to block shots, because as soon as you do, the shooter can pull up and walk around you.

All forwards will always try to stay in the shooting lanes and good PK forwards, if they are in position, more often than not force the point shooter to pass vs trying to shoot through them.

Laying out to block shots is a desperation act, because it takes you out of the play. It is something you do if the puck goes across ice through a passing lane to a trigger man and you are pretty sure your Goalie is not going to get across in time.

If you actually watch the games, you would see that Sheahan has been very effective this year. Calling him "just a warm body" is so misinformed and screams of someone that only stat watches and rarely watches the games.

 

[GrungeHockey]

Would so much rather have Sheahan back, or go after guys like Curtis Lazar or Johan Larsson. Good 4th line defensive guys that make their linemates better and shoulder some of the PK burden. You could probably sign 2 of the 3 for near the cap Kassian would take up.

So you want to be Buffalo from a few years back but without Eichel and Reinhart. Ya, that'll work.

Vegas is in a lose lose situation. You get a high pick or picks (they already owe 1 first to Buffalo remember) for Dadanov or whoever they now deem most expendable for cap compliance and they provide some offense and placehold for Beniers and then you retain and flip them next deadline for even more assets. It's like buying draft picks for cash. Do it!

 

[Irie]

So you want to be Buffalo from a few years back but without Eichel and Reinhart. Ya, that'll work.

Vegas is in a lose lose situation. You get a high pick or picks (they already owe 1 first to Buffalo remember) for Dadanov or whoever they now deem most expendable for cap compliance and they provide some offense and placehold for Beniers and then you retain and flip them next deadline for even more assets. It's like buying draft picks for cash. Do it!

If you look at Lazar and Larsson's body of work, with Buffalo and without, they are both very effective.

Larsson is actually really strong in any shut-down role, but I would be hesitant to give him too much, because although I love the player, he has a really hard time staying healthy.

If ownership is on board with throwing away millions for extra draft picks, than that is a legitimate "get rich quick" plan (for the team that is, it's a get poor quick plan for ownership), but if they are on board, then I say go for it as well.

Unfortunately, I highly doubt they are, so I was trying to bring a little bit of realistic perspective here. It is usually unrealistic when fans float ideas for owners to throw millions away for draft capital. But I guess we can dream