Blue Jays Discussion: RIP Roy Halladay (1977-2017)

[Discoverer]

The 2018 Free-Agent Landmines | FanGraphs Baseball

Lmao

While I get why that's kind of funny, he's not wrong. The projected salary was the landmine... the actual salary wasn't.

 

[zeke]

While I get why that's kind of funny, he's not wrong. The projected salary was the landmine... the actual salary wasn't.

He had him projected as getting 1 more year at the same salary.

 

[Discoverer]

He had him projected as getting 1 more year at the same salary.

He had him getting an extra year at an additional $24 million. That's a pretty significant difference considering Edwin will be 37 for that season and likely projects as somewhere slightly over replacement level.

 

[zeke]

He had him getting an extra year at an additional $24 million. That's a pretty significant difference considering Edwin will be 37 for that season and likely projects as somewhere slightly over replacement level.

uh huh.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

While I get why that's kind of funny, he's not wrong. The projected salary was the landmine... the actual salary wasn't.

Oh no, I wasn't laughing at that. What he said about Edwin is absolutely true.

I laughed at the cumulative WAR of the players listed.

 

[dredeye]

The thing with the yanks getting all this international spending money is that if they fail to get Ohtani they can load up on lost braves prospects

 

[Discoverer]

uh huh.

Do you think he'll be worth $24 million when he's 37 or do you think maybe that would have made the contract worse?

 

[Discoverer]

Oh no, I wasn't laughing at that. What he said about Edwin is absolutely true.

I laughed at the cumulative WAR of the players listed.

Ahhhh that makes more sense. When I read the total of 0.8 fWAR my first thought was "Wait... wasn't Edwin close to 3 on his own?"

I guess I'm just used to the "Dave Cameron said something dumb" posts and assumed you were laughing at his justification for having included Edwin.

 

[zeke]

Do you think he'll be worth $24 million when he's 37 or do you think maybe that would have made the contract worse?

1 more year at the same price.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Ahhhh that makes more sense. When I read the total of 0.8 fWAR my first thought was "Wait... wasn't Edwin close to 3 on his own?"

I guess I'm just used to the "Dave Cameron said something dumb" posts and assumed you were laughing at his justification for having included Edwin.

Other than his drunk chat last week, he's actually been on point for a little while now. Kind of weird.

 

[Discoverer]

1 more year at the same price.

Actual contract: 3/$60 million
Cameron prediction: 4/$84 million

I'm not claiming to be great at math or anything, but please explain where you're getting "one more year at the same price".

Also, "one more year at the same price" almost always makes free agent contracts worse.

 

[MJ65]

Any time I see the title I feel so sad, any ways what's the latest on the Jays?

 

[zeke]

Actual contract: 3/$60 million
Cameron prediction: 4/$84 million

I'm not claiming to be great at math or anything, but please explain where you're getting "one more year at the same price".

Also, "one more year at the same price" almost always makes free agent contracts worse.

come on dude.

 

[BlueForever75]

Are there any pitchers being left unprotected in the rule 5 draft that can help us out. Preferably a left hander with heat. Can see us picking such a player up if the opportunity presents itself. Better yet any super utility players available preferably for second, short and corner OF spots?

 

[Discoverer]

come on dude.

So you're just gonna stick with "An extra $24 million for his age-37 season wouldn't have made the contract significantly worse." Cool.

 

[zeke]

So you're just gonna stick with "An extra $24 million for his age-37 season wouldn't have made the contract significantly worse." Cool.

and you're gonna stick with the "one extra year makes it a disaster'.

 

[Discoverer]

and you're gonna stick with the "one extra year makes it a disaster'.

Not at all. I'm gonna stick with "An additional commitment of $24 million for an extra year in which a player will likely be slightly above replacement level makes the contract significantly worse than it currently is."

 

[zeke]

Not at all. I'm gonna stick with "An additional commitment of $24 million for an extra year in which a player will likely be slightly above replacement level makes the contract significantly worse than it currently is."

yes, I know you're going to stick with the only phrasing that you can get away with and avoid admitting that one extra year turning a contract into a landmine is amusing.

 

[Discoverer]

yes, I know you're going to stick with the only phrasing that you can get away with and avoid admitting that one extra year turning a contract into a landmine is amusing.

I never referred to it as a landmine.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Are there any pitchers being left unprotected in the rule 5 draft that can help us out. Preferably a left hander with heat. Can see us picking such a player up if the opportunity presents itself. Better yet any super utility players available preferably for second, short and corner OF spots?

In terms of LHP, you already have Mayza who fills the "LHP pitcher who's a questionable prospect, throws real hard, and maybe could be something."

Wyatt Strahan is a RHP who is unprotected, and could be interesting. Carlos Tocci is an OF who is available.

Then there's Mark Appel (RHP) if someone wants to overhaul his delivery (or bloody teach him a proper sinker\cutter combo) or convert him into a reliever, and of course my dark horse favourite Nick Franklin (UT) who's a free agent, and wouldn't need to be drafted in the Rule-5 at all.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I never referred to it as a landmine.

No you did not (and I actually believe you, like many of us would have been fine at 4y/$80MM if it had been signed when it was offered). Cameron, however, justifies his point of view pretty clearly, and its hard to say he's wrong, even with a season providing a slight buffer of hindsight.

For 2017, Encarnacion will probably be fine, and help whatever team signs him. But the long-term cost of getting one or maybe two good years will be staggeringly high when all is said and done; it’s not just the $80 to $90 million in salary that we’re forecasting he’ll get, but the signing team will also have to pay an additional tax by surrendering a draft choice, potentially tacking another $5 to $10 million in price onto the cost of the deal. For Encarnacion to be worth something close to $100 million (once the draft pick tax is included), he’d have to essentially defy aging, and stay one of the game’s best sluggers for the next three or four years. That’s probably not going to happen, and instead, the team that winds up with Encarnacion will probably get a short boost that they regret down the line.

 

[The Nemesis]

Indeed. That one commenter invalidates the whole venture.

Yes. That's what I've been getting at. I was totally saying that one stupid comment is the downfall of the entire athletic model. Curses, my whole plan is unraveling at my feet. Time to walk off into the sunset and rue the collapse of everything I was building towards....

Come on. If you're going to respond, at least give me something more than a ridiculous over-stretched misrepresentation of my point.

The point I was making was that I've seen multiple writers for the Athletic refer to it as if it will lead to the betterment of journalist/fan interactions because it somehow attracts a "better" class of fan than the rest of the internet or other media channels. The truth is that it appears to have made little difference in raising the overall quality of sports discourse. At best it's substituted angry hot takes for cloying self-satisfying tire pumping (take a drink any time almost any article on there with 10+ comments includes at least one that's some form of "this is why I pay for my subscription" or even a simple "great article <name>!". I honestly wouldn't be surprised if some of those turn out to be a degree of astroturfing) At its worst it still invites massive stupidity and doesn't really change anything other than disallowing excessively profane or inappropriately worded comments.

Unrelated but somewhat relevant to that particular piece, I also continue to be put off by John Lott's seeming descent into Richard-Griffin-esque cranky old man lunacy. It's been easy to pick up the not so subtle axe he has to grind against the Blue Jays because they've ousted his buddies Paul Beeston and Anthopoulos, and in the piece I was mentioning, Lott opens by explicitly comparing the rule-5-eligible players to indentured servants, which is bafflingly inflammatory and over-dramatic.

 

[Discoverer]

No you did not (and I actually believe you, like many of us would have been fine at 4y/$80MM if it had been signed when it was offered). Cameron, however, justifies his point of view pretty clearly, and its hard to say he's wrong, even with a season providing a slight buffer of hindsight.

Yep, I would have. And I would have been fine with it with the understanding that the last year or two would probably look ugly and that, while it would be exciting to know Edwin would be coming back, it probably wouldn't turn out to be a smart financial decision.

It's kind of like when the Jays acquired Tulo: lots of excitement because "HOLY SHIT IT'S TULO!" but also a little bit of... "Yikes. This could get ugly."

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Fun\crazy fact of the day as I wait for my 4:30 conference call:

Of the top 30 position player in terms of fWAR generated in 2017, 25 were with their original teams (i.e. acquired through draft\IFA). Only two of the top-30 had ever reached free agency, with only one actually going to their team via free agency (Justin Upton, Detroit (traded to Anaheim at the deadline)).

 

[Leafin]

So any word on these Braves prospects that are now free agents? I assume they are still subject to IFA rules just that they can't get bonuses as they've already received them from Atlanta. I wonder how quickly some of them will get scooped up. Would be nice for the Jays to take advantage of this and get themselves a few good prospects.

Kevin Maitan is the big name. Whats the word on him? Beyond him struggling in his first season in rookie ball.