Rielly

[ToneDog]

All I am saying is that maybe a Reilly deal is in the cards after seeing what Jones returned. There isnt a reason to give Reilly more than 7 million a season. He just isnt worth that type of money. He provides solid offensive numbers dont get me wrong. But he isnt a true number one which plays effectively in all situations.

Last minute with a 1 goal lead who do Leaf coaches put on the ice? If we go based on last season, its Muzzin, Brodie and Bogo. Shit even Dermott and Holl would be in there before Reilly!!! Who was taken off the PP1? Reilly!!! Who doesnt play PK time? Reilly!

So how is a player paid as the teams best dman when he doesnt play in key situations? Pietro, Hedman, Werenski, Makar, Hamilton, Carlsson, Burns, etc... all play in those situations. Reilly is no more than a Brodie type caliber dman. Solid top pairing D but not a true number 1. Simple.

Yes Rielly is not great in his own end but he is worth what the market will bare. Rielly's agent is going to make Hamilton his comparable. Somebody will pay Rielly no matter what Leaf fans think. Rielly is going to be Hyman 2.0 unless the Leafs act.

 

[CDN24]

Saying admit the big 4 can't work implies that line of thinking is fact. It's not. It hasn't worked, and it's definitely challenging, but hasn't yet doesn't equal can't.

Maybe hold your horses and just see what he actually does in a year. People have said for like 2 years running that he wouldn't be able to make the cap work and he has.

Seems to me your view is perhaps to rigid. There are lots of ways to make things work beyond the one or two outcomes you see

It certainly hasn't worked and there is nothing to lead one to believe it will work given the state of the teams other players and prospects. You can always make the cap work by replacing decent players on decent contracts, great contracts even (Kadri) with a bunch of fringe Nhlers at league minimum. The Cap will work but the roster won't as those fringe NHLers can't produce enough come playoff time when the opposition invariably will limit the effectiveness of the big 4 and beat you because their secondary players are way better than yours.

So 40M on 4 guys leaves 40M for the other 16. (going with a bare bones roster of 20 here) that is 2.5M each should be doable? Okay but we need a couple of D-men who are above average. say Muzzin Brodie and Rielly at 7.5M. Oops 18 of our 40M is gone. Need a couple goalies even at this years prices thats another 5M gone. we have added 5 guys so only need 11 now (still 1/2 the team)and we have 17M left. That means 3 D and 8F who average about $1.5M. You might have a chance if you have a few great pieces on ELC's but the prospect pool ain't what it used to be. Maybe trading away picks every year at deadline to go all in hasn't helped on that front either.

In the past he made cap room by moving out bigger salaries and replacing with cheaper. its how he got the cap space to fix the D. moving out guys like Kadri/Johhnson/Kappanen, letting guys like Hyman/Barrie walk. There is no one else to move other than Kerfoot to generate any significant space.

Making the Cap work and building a winning roster within that Cap are two different things. Having 50% of the cap tied up in 4 guys is tough, having all 4 be forwards is worse. Look honestly at this years proposed roster up front. After the big 4, how many would have made Tampa's starting 12 forwards last year. Maybe Kerfoot. Okay Tampa was a bit of a powerhouse and used LTIR rather creatively. How many make Vegas, Mtl or the Islanders? Kerfoot probably does but doubt anymore do.
The playoff opposition will continue to do what Mtl, Columbus and Boston did. Slow down the big four enough so that the top 2 lines are pretty much a wash and beat you with their depth up front.

 

[BlueForever75]

Yes Rielly is not great in his own end but he is worth what the market will bare. Rielly's agent is going to make Hamilton his comparable. Somebody will pay Rielly no matter what Leaf fans think. Rielly is going to be Hyman 2.0 unless the Leafs act.

Exactly. Let him be someone else's problem. I agree with you 125% that Reilly will get what he is asking for. But to the Leafs he isnt worth it. I would rather have 2 more 4.5 million dmen than Reilly at 8-9 million per season.

How good would the Leafs be with 2 dmen like Edmundson and Savard in their lineup rather than Reilly alone? Cause that is what you are doing as Leaf management by signing solely Reilly.

Invest in developing players like Sandin, Lilly, Dermott and Hollwell who are offensively gifted to varying degrees. Brodie, Holl and Muzzin arent exactly cement heads offensively. There is plenty of offence to go around on our d core without Reilly and that is all he brings really. Play that D this season, trade deadline acquire another dman and off season do the same. Thats the route I take.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Rielly is going to be Hyman 2.0 unless the Leafs act.

Yup and they'll still defend Dubas - "because there was no replacement". But walking for nothing with no replacement is fine.

 

[ToneDog]

Yup and they'll still defend Dubas - "because there was no replacement". But walking for nothing with no replacement is fine.

Worst case you replace Rielly with Sandin on your second pair. Just be transparent and tell the fans that it is time to sink or swim with the kids. Set the bar low and fans will buy in and Dubas might even keep his job if they fail. Set the expectation that this is a contending team, sh1t the bed and lose Rielly and Leaf nation will flip. No way Dubas survives.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Worst case you replace Rielly with Sandin on your second pair. Just be transparent and tell the fans that it is time to sink or swim with the kids. Set the bar low and fans will buy in and Dubas might even keep his job if they fail. Set the expectation that this is a contending team, sh1t the bed and lose Rielly and Leaf nation will flip. No way Dubas survives.

And the fact that there is no replacement is on the GM. But yeah trade him maybe go with 2 cheaper options, but don't sit back in the off-season and claim they'll see how the landscape looks before talking with Rielly. Great strategy there Dubas

Kyle Dubas: “Once we see what the market bears as it continues to develop, we will have a better sample size to be able to open discussions with Morgan Rielly”

 

[egd27]

Worst case you replace Rielly with Sandin on your second pair. Just be transparent and tell the fans that it is time to sink or swim with the kids. Set the bar low and fans will buy in and Dubas might even keep his job if they fail. Set the expectation that this is a contending team, sh1t the bed and lose Rielly and Leaf nation will flip. No way Dubas survives.

The more I think about it, I believe that would have been the smarter game plan for Kid Kyle.

• Admit some changes are necessary to reach the next level
• Use the flat cap as part of the reason for changes
• Announce a retool year
• Move Reilly for youth and take back an expiring contract if necessary
• Move one of the expensive wingers for youth and a short term contract if necessary

Now there's additional youth/prospects/picks, they have a chance look at the young guys this season, and they acquire cap space to use next FA day to bolster the line up. And for Kid Kyle......instead of being pot committed for this season, he buys himself 2 seasons minimum.

I wonder if that's what an experienced manager would do?

 

[The Apologist]

The more I think about it, I believe that would have been the smarter game plan for Kid Kyle.

• Admit some changes are necessary to reach the next level
• Use the flat cap as part of the reason for changes
• Announce a retool year
• Move Reilly for youth and take back an expiring contract if necessary
• Move one of the expensive wingers for youth and a short term contract if necessary

Now there's additional youth/prospects/picks, they have a chance look at the young guys this season, and they acquire cap space to use next FA day to bolster the line up. And for Kid Kyle......instead of being pot committed for this season, he buys himself 2 seasons minimum.

I wonder if that's what an experienced manager would do?

Clearly they would trade them all. Luckily St Louis lucked out on Pietrangelo and won a cup before he walked for nothing.
Carolina loaded up on their trade of Hamilton before FA.
Look what Calgary got for Brodie, the Pens and Oleksiak, and on and on....

Man, lot of NHL GMs could use your help here ...

Don't you guys ever get tired of crises after crises?

 

[egd27]

Clearly they would trade them all. Luckily St Louis lucked out on Pietrangelo and won a cup before he walked for nothing.
Carolina loaded up on their trade of Hamilton before FA.
Look what Calgary got for Brodie, the Pens and Oleksiak, and on and on....

Man, lot of NHL GMs could use your help here ...

Don't you guys ever get tired of crises after crises?

Don't consider it a crisis, just throwing out an alternative approach to another season of going for it, spending assets at the TDL, and losing another UFA for no return.

Even the most optimistic must realize there are only so many seasons of losing assets before a reset needs to undertaken.

 

[ToneDog]

Don't consider it a crisis, just throwing out an alternative approach to another season of going for it, spending assets at the TDL, and losing another UFA for no return.

Even the most optimistic must realize there are only so many seasons of losing assets before a reset needs to undertaken.

The ship is heading for a huge iceberg, full steam ahead. Realizing you are just not good enough to compete with the big boys and taking a step back in order to take two forward might not be a bad plan. We are more likely to see a repeat of last year than winning a round IMO.

 

[PromisedLand]

interesting no news on Mo anywhere whether an offer is made or not yet by the Leafs?

 

[BlueForever75]

interesting no news on Mo anywhere whether an offer is made or not yet by the Leafs?

My guess is he is dealt prior to beginning of season. I have been stating this since the end of the season. Core 4 will not be touched but that 4 doesnt include Reilly and there could be deals in place to get rid of him with a player that is under contract.

Look for Anahiem as a possible trade partner. The Leafs should have dealt him to Edmonton with Bear and picks coming back. But they missed that boat entirely.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The ship is heading for a huge iceberg, full steam ahead. Realizing you are just not good enough to compete with the big boys and taking a step back in order to take two forward might not be a bad plan. We are more likely to see a repeat of last year than winning a round IMO.

I'm a bit more optimistic, I think we have a decent chance of winning a round, I'd say a bit better than 50%. That said, the odds of going further than that are very small so I agree that going for it next year would be a bad plan. I get this sinking feeling that Rielly ends up walking after being our "own rental" which would be just terrible. And if that were to happen and Dubas kept his job, that would be even more terrible.

 

[BlueForever75]

I'm a bit more optimistic, I think we have a decent chance of winning a round, I'd say a bit better than 50%. That said, the odds of going further than that are very small so I agree that going for it next year would be a bad plan. I get this sinking feeling that Rielly ends up walking after being our "own rental" which would be just terrible. And if that were to happen and Dubas kept his job, that would be even more terrible.

Even if the Leafs win a round next playoffs, Dubas has to be fired. As far as Im concerned he's a dead in the water already. The only thing that will save his job, is going on a lengthy run in the playoffs beyond 2nd round. If that happens he keeps his job. Otherwise he's a goner.

 

[Stephen]

I think you lock it in around that $7.5 million mark if he wants it so the asset is protected if that's on the table. They're clearly running back with the core and this ensures they aren't walking another asset to UFA which they can't readily replace. The market seems to be blowing up for defensemen so that wouldn't be outrageous relative to the other new contracts coming online. Can always move him later if the fit is all wrong.

 

[The Apologist]

I think you lock it in around that $7.5 million mark if he wants it so the asset is protected if that's on the table. They're clearly running back with the core and this ensures they aren't walking another asset to UFA which they can't readily replace. The market seems to be blowing up for defensemen so that wouldn't be outrageous relative to the other new contracts coming online. Can always move him later if the fit is all wrong.

If you can get Mo Riles locked in at 7.5 you take it and run.
Based on what we've seen in FA this year that would be a nice hometown discount and major sign of commitment to the team. I don't see that being done before the start of the season however but hey, it's only August.

 

[yubbers]

I like Reily.. That being said... He's a 2nd pairing dman on a competitive team.

 

[Super Mega]

love the player but we can't afford him at Hamilton's rate. He's probably owed in that ballpark so why not move him to someone that can extend him? maybe part of the return is a lesser player who can play in the top 4 at a more reasonable hit?

 

[Stonehands1990]

I think you lock it in around that $7.5 million mark if he wants it so the asset is protected if that's on the table. They're clearly running back with the core and this ensures they aren't walking another asset to UFA which they can't readily replace. The market seems to be blowing up for defensemen so that wouldn't be outrageous relative to the other new contracts coming online. Can always move him later if the fit is all wrong.

Reilly’s current salary of 5.0
Kessel retention of 1.2
Waiving a 950k player and running a smaller roster

= 7.1

Very manageable and what I ballpark his extension will be. He’s closer to Torey Krug than Dougie Hamilton. Krug got 6.5

 

[hobarth]

What is Rielly worth, basically he's supposedly a speedy, nonphysical, leader with offensive talent but not the greatest defensively. As for being such a great offensive talent, take away the 52 and 72 point seasons and I don't think he's actually delivered on his offensive potential. Mostly his resume seems very Tyson Barrieish to me but Barrie has delivered on his offensive promise far more consistently than Rielly.

Barrie just signed for $4.5 mil per for 3 years so the question is, does Rielly deserve more or even that much?

 

[Bomber0104]

What is Rielly worth, basically he's supposedly a speedy, nonphysical, leader with offensive talent but not the greatest defensively. As for being such a great offensive talent, take away the 52 and 72 point seasons and I don't think he's actually delivered on his offensive potential. Mostly his resume seems very Tyson Barrieish to me but Barrie has delivered on his offensive promise far more consistently than Rielly.

Barrie just signed for $4.5 mil per for 3 years so the question is, does Rielly deserve more or even that much?

Barrie and Rielly couldn't be more far apart.

You even saw them on the same team together for a stretch there, how in any way did you find them comparable?

 

[Stephen]

Reilly’s current salary of 5.0
Kessel retention of 1.2
Waiving a 950k player and running a smaller roster

= 7.1

Very manageable and what I ballpark his extension will be. He’s closer to Torey Krug than Dougie Hamilton. Krug got 6.5

Yeah exactly. We should be okay to offer as much as $7.5 million. They need to sell high on Kerfoot and try to work something in cheaper before 2022-23, or maybe the cap goes up slightly by then too.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Yeah exactly. We should be okay to offer as much as $7.5 million. They need to sell high on Kerfoot and try to work something in cheaper before 2022-23, or maybe the cap goes up slightly by then too.

Yeah I think Kerfoot eventually is the odd man out as well. Rielly, Campbell need raises and slight raises for Sandin & Liljegren as well. All next off season

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I'd really prefer not to go over $7 million for Rielly but looking at next years UFA market there aren't any defensemen that bring what he does at his age and would have have the type of cap hit that's being projected ($6.5-$7.5 million). Sandin unless he comes out playing like gangbusters may not be ready to replace Rielly's minutes yet, even with Brodie as a potential partner.

People aren't going to like it but the best option is to do the wait and see approach, and perhaps even the "own rental" thing we've been doing. I'm well aware that we've lost assets by not trading away our upcoming UFA's who we have no intention of signing, but that time has passed. JVR and Bozak in 2018 and Barrie in 2020 are the biggest mistakes on that front. Keeping Hymand and potentially Rielly so this team can compete is the right move. Time to evaluate Sandin over a full season will be key as well.

Of course if the Leafs completely screw the pooch in the regular season then selling a few guys will be on the table, not just Rielly.

 

[mikeyz]

I think we have a decent chance of winning a round, I'd say a bit better than 50%

Not a chance in hell.

I am still not 100% sure we even make the playoffs TBH with you.