Value of: Rielly for another D 1-for-1 swap?

[Randy Randerson]

What about Rielly+ for Rielly plus a small plus?

you need to add to the Rielly side, big time.

 

[Liferleafer]

What about Rielly+ for Rielly plus a small plus?

You are overvaluing Rielly here....no way we add to Rielly to get only Rielly.

 

[schenneuf]

Ok, lets just go along with OPs thread.

Realistically i would want a dman similar age as him, drafted 2010-2016, also drafted top 15ish.

1) Cam Fowler (2010)
2) Adam Larsson (2011)
3) Dougie Hamilton (2011)
4) Jonas Brodin (2011)
5) Oskar Klefbom (2011)
6) Ryan Murray (2012)
7) Hampus Lindholm (2012)
8) Jacob Trouba (2012)
9) Matt Dumba (2012)
10) Olli Maatta (2012)
11) Seth Jones (2013)
12) Darnell Nurse (2013)
13) Rasmus Ristolainen (2013)
14) Aaron Ekblad (2014, lol i wish)
15) Noah Hanifin (2015)
16) Ivan Provorov (2015)
17) Zach Werenski (2015)
18) Olli Juolevi (2016)

Out of this list, theres some trades that both teams would say no, some trades where other teams would say no, and some where Leafs GM would say no.

We could be a little open minded, and just discuss the thread. Regardless of it being realistic or not. 3 years before, who would have thought Subban could be traded in a 1on1.

Rielly is entering his fifth year post draft, and still makes questionnable decisions quite often. I firmly believe he is a fantastic skater with above average offensive IQ, but his defensive game game is STILL a work in progress, and not top-pair worthy at this point. He relies on his skating to cover himself because his decision making/IQ is lackluster in his own zone, and while not weak, he isint a physical presence. Add to that the fact that he is no PPQB with amazing vision and that his shot is not a threat at all, I find it hard to see a sure-fire #1. Out of all the leafs players, he is the most overrated.

And the problem with the projections of the leafs defence some fans make (which often includes Gardiner, Rielly, Zaitsev in the top 4 and Carrick on the bottom pair as the players who will stick long term) is that none of those players I would call solid on the defense side of things. Some of them (Gardiner) I would even call disasters on that front. You cant win if all your defensemens are offense first. They need to fix this ASAP.

Finally, some people get it.

 

[NarcoPolo]

Finally, some people get it.

No, some people don't get it. Look at what he can do with a good team infront of him. Him and Tanev were the best d for team Canada at the WCH. By a fair margin. He was constantly praised by a coach that had no affiliation to him prior to the tournament. Trading Rielly is the last thing this team needs to do. But yeah lets just jump down the kids throat whos had a "rough" few games at the beginning of the season, when our entire defensive structure has been a total disaster..

 

[Kamiccolo]

No, some people don't get it. Look at what he can do with a good team infront of him. Him and Tanev were the best d for team Canada at the WCH. By a fair margin. He was constantly praised by a coach that had no affiliation to him prior to the tournament. Trading Rielly is the last thing this team needs to do. But yeah lets just jump down the kids throat whos had a "rough" few games at the beginning of the season, when our entire defensive structure has been a total disaster..

Save your fingers, some people have hidden motives and choose when to create these threads. If you are a Leaf fan watch our GDT's. Good game = silence, bad game = Kadri is a bum, Fire Babcock, Trade Rielly, Fire Gardiner into the sun, etc.

I think I'm just going to ignore these threads from now on.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Finally, some people get it.

That's fine if you mean "finally, some people get that this is just a for-fun hypothetical", but if you're trying to say we need to get out from under Rielly before he sinks us that's just not fair to him. He plays a ton of minutes on what is still a very bad team despite being exciting and promising and has a positive CF% this year. He put up 36pts on a trainwreck team with awful QoT and pretty good QoC last year, while not getting pp time for half the year.

In the first 9 games this year he's had some plays where he was driving the offense (Kadri's goal in the WPG game for example), and he's totally capable of being the 1st unit PPQB at 22 years of age - keep in mind that our forwards are likely to have a ton of time with the puck on the 1st unit pp for the next decade

He's still playing with partners that are beneath him, and on a team that is not very good, so he's going to get put in scramble-positions more often than he will than when the team is good.

I think you're placing too much emphasis on this season as well, our goaltending is a combined ~.880 sv% and nearly 4gaa - those kinds of numbers just aren't sustainable so now is probably not the time to knee-jerk, mistakes look worse when they end up in the back of the net than when saves get made

I think Rielly is the kind of player that we need as well, it looks like Zaitsev is a good option for a well-rounded minute eater, and we're likely to add another big-minute guy who plays a steady game with this years first rounder, and that guy is likely to be right handed

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

ITT i learned that the leafs are only on "year 2 of a rebiild"

that being said, trading rielly does not fix your defence. not going to happen, but even a rielly for doughty trade would not fix your defence to the point where it is good, leafs need more quality.

 

[Stuzchuk]

Leafs need a shakeup on D, will move Rielly strictly in a 1-for-1 package. D for D.

What do ya got?

WTF dude!?!

over-react much?

 

[Randy Randerson]

ITT i learned that the leafs are only on "year 2 of a rebiild"

that being said, trading rielly does not fix your defence. not going to happen, but even a rielly for doughty trade would not fix your defence to the point where it is good, leafs need more quality.

Not sure if this was supposed to be sarcastic, we only committed to the rebuild in the spring of 2015. We had already drafted Nylander and were on our way to the pick that would become Marner when it happened, so it looks longer than that

 

[Liferleafer]

ITT i learned that the leafs are only on "year 2 of a rebiild"

that being said, trading rielly does not fix your defence. not going to happen, but even a rielly for doughty trade would not fix your defence to the point where it is good, leafs need more quality.

We are. The rebuild started when Shanny got here. Spent 1 year evaulating, then started jettisoning dead weight/bad contracts like Kessel/Dion. Have the Leafs been losing for longer that 2 seasons? Of course, but Brian Burke/Dave Nonis never "rebuilt", the tried many futile attempts at retooling.

 

[garyturner3]

ITT i learned that the leafs are only on "year 2 of a rebiild"

that being said, trading rielly does not fix your defence. not going to happen, but even a rielly for doughty trade would not fix your defence to the point where it is good, leafs need more quality.

And why is that a surprise exactly? Nobody's debating that the team hasn't been garbage for 10 years, but that doesn't mean they've been rebuilding. Whatever happened before they started the teardown a couple seasons ago is irrelevant. Bad team or not, management didn't accept a rebuild was necessary until two years ago so that's when the clock starts.

 

[oilerbear]

Leafs need a shakeup on D, will move Rielly strictly in a 1-for-1 package. D for D.

What do ya got?

Leafs need a shakeup on D, will move Rielly strictly in a 1-for-1 package. D for D.

What do ya got?

when you look at Low/high Danger shots:
1000 avg LD shots gets you 32 Goals
1000 avg HD shots gets you 162 goals
162/32 =5.0625

if LD shot is a scorin g factor of 1
then
HD shot has scoring factor of 5

the avg LS shot to HS shot over the years is
20 LD SH
10 HD SH

20 x 1 =20
10 X 5 = 50
the avg scoring factor game is 70.

Last night Anderson faced 37 shots
8 HD 0G
29 LD 0G
8 X 5 = 40
29 X 1 = 29
he faced a shot power factor of 69.
slightly below average.
oiler usually rack 14-16 did not press andersson like normal.

Last night:

Talbot # 2 HD SH Save% goalie last 3 seasons
VS OTT
10 HD SH 1 G
11 LD SH 0G
1 ENG
10 X 5 = 50
11 X 1 = 11
He faced a shot power factor of 61

Elliott: #7 HD SH Save % goalie last 3 seasons
VS WSH
13 HD 2G
15 LD
1 ENG
13 X 5 = 65
15 X 1 = 15
He faced a shot power factor of 80 gave up 2G

Holtby: #4 HD SH Save% goalie last 3 Seasons
@ CGY
6 HD 1G
16 LD
6 X 5 =30
16 X 1 = 16
He faced a shot power factor of 46 and gave up 1G

Enroth: #43 HD save% Golaie last 3 seasons
@ NYI
25 HS SH 5G
10 LD SH
25 X 5 =125
10 X 1 = 10
Enroth faced a shot power factor of 135 and gave up 5G
almost double average.

Bishop: #22 HD SH save% Golaie
@ NYR
22 HD SH 6G
15 LD SH 0 G
22 X 5 = 110
15 X 1 = 15
Bishop faced shot power factor of 125 and gave up 6G


Leafs games:
@ OTT
F. andersson #26 HD save% goalie
14 HD SH 4G
16 LD SH 1G
14x 5 = 70
16 x 1 = 16
Fredrick Faced shot power factor of 86 and gave up 5 G

@ WPG
F.and....
16 HD SH 5G
18 LD SH 0G
16 X 5 = 80
18 X 1 = 18
He faced shot power factor of 98 giving up 5G

@ MIN
Enroth
15 HD SH
12 LD SH
15 X 5 = 75
12 X 1 = 12
Enroth faced Shot power Factor of 87 gave up 3 G

@ CHI
F. And...
20 HD SH 4G
15 LD SH 0G
20 X 5 = 100
15 X 1 =15
Fredie faced Shot power factor of 115 gave up 4G

FLD
F. Andersson
16 HD SH
12 LD SH
16 X 5 =80
12 x 1 = 12
He faced Shot power Factor of 92 gave up 2G
top 3 goalie Performance

@ MTL
F. And
15 HD Sh 2G
16 LD SH 0G
15 X 5 = 75
16 X 1 = 16
He face Shot power Factor of 91 gave up 2G
top 3 goalie performance.

Price
16 HD Sh
22 LD SH
16 X 5 = 80
22 X 1 = 22
Price faced Shot power factor of 91 gave up 1G

he faced the best in the game.
top 4 Goalies last 3 seasons.
#1 Price
#2 Talbot; Griess
#4 Holtby

what you see is a some very poor HD defence.

Rielly is one of the 5 worst HD shot defensive din the game.

Wideman would be a HD sh defence and offensive production d similar to Rielly.

Rielly is what is refered to as a Playoff killer.
Like Reinhart; Nurse; Hamilton; Giordano last year.

What you want is a top 30 HSCA D
and
partner them with a top 30 HD Save% goalie
Vlasic ( #7 Jones)
Weber (Rinne not in top 50) (#1 Price) we are seeing the results.
Braun ( #7 Jones)
Larsson (#10 Schnieder) now (#2 Talbot)
Manson (no last year) (#10 Bernier)
Lindholm (#10 Bernier)

you guys already traded your only HD SH asset in Bernier.

 

[Liferleafer]

when you look at Low/high Danger shots:
1000 avg LD shots gets you 32 Goals
1000 avg HD shots gets you 162 goals
162/32 =5.0625

if LD shot is a scorin g factor of 1
then
HD shot has scoring factor of 5

the avg LS shot to HS shot over the years is
20 LD SH
10 HD SH

20 x 1 =20
10 X 5 = 50
the avg scoring factor game is 70.

Last night Anderson faced 37 shots
8 HD 0G
29 LD 0G
8 X 5 = 40
29 X 1 = 29
he faced a shot power factor of 69.
slightly below average.
oiler usually rack 14-16 did not press andersson like normal.

Last night:

Talbot # 2 HD SH Save% goalie last 3 seasons
VS OTT
10 HD SH 1 G
11 LD SH 0G
1 ENG
10 X 5 = 50
11 X 1 = 11
He faced a shot power factor of 61

Elliott: #7 HD SH Save % goalie last 3 seasons
VS WSH
13 HD 2G
15 LD
1 ENG
13 X 5 = 65
15 X 1 = 15
He faced a shot power factor of 80 gave up 2G

Holtby: #4 HD SH Save% goalie last 3 Seasons
@ CGY
6 HD 1G
16 LD
6 X 5 =30
16 X 1 = 16
He faced a shot power factor of 46 and gave up 1G

Enroth: #43 HD save% Golaie last 3 seasons
@ NYI
25 HS SH 5G
10 LD SH
25 X 5 =125
10 X 1 = 10
Enroth faced a shot power factor of 135 and gave up 5G
almost double average.

Bishop: #22 HD SH save% Golaie
@ NYR
22 HD SH 6G
15 LD SH 0 G
22 X 5 = 110
15 X 1 = 15
Bishop faced shot power factor of 125 and gave up 6G


Leafs games:
@ OTT
F. andersson #26 HD save% goalie
14 HD SH 4G
16 LD SH 1G
14x 5 = 70
16 x 1 = 16
Fredrick Faced shot power factor of 86 and gave up 5 G

@ WPG
F.and....
16 HD SH 5G
18 LD SH 0G
16 X 5 = 80
18 X 1 = 18
He faced shot power factor of 98 giving up 5G

@ MIN
Enroth
15 HD SH
12 LD SH
15 X 5 = 75
12 X 1 = 12
Enroth faced Shot power Factor of 87 gave up 3 G

@ CHI
F. And...
20 HD SH 4G
15 LD SH 0G
20 X 5 = 100
15 X 1 =15
Fredie faced Shot power factor of 115 gave up 4G

FLD
F. Andersson
16 HD SH
12 LD SH
16 X 5 =80
12 x 1 = 12
He faced Shot power Factor of 92 gave up 2G
top 3 goalie Performance

@ MTL
F. And
15 HD Sh 2G
16 LD SH 0G
15 X 5 = 75
16 X 1 = 16
He face Shot power Factor of 91 gave up 2G
top 3 goalie performance.

Price
16 HD Sh
22 LD SH
16 X 5 = 80
22 X 1 = 22
Price faced Shot power factor of 91 gave up 1G

he faced the best in the game.
top 4 Goalies last 3 seasons.
#1 Price
#2 Talbot; Griess
#4 Holtby

what you see is a some very poor HD defence.

Rielly is one of the 5 worst HD shot defensive din the game.

Wideman would be a HD sh defence and offensive production d similar to Rielly.

Rielly is what is refered to as a Playoff killer.
Like Reinhart; Nurse; Hamilton; Giordano last year.

What you want is a top 30 HSCA D
and
partner them with a top 30 HD Save% goalie
Vlasic ( #7 Jones)
Weber (Rinne not in top 50) (#1 Price) we are seeing the results.
Braun ( #7 Jones)
Larsson (#10 Schnieder) now (#2 Talbot)
Manson (no last year) (#10 Bernier)
Lindholm (#10 Bernier)

you guys already traded your only HD SH asset in Bernier.

To every person that has EVER asked why i don't put alot of stock into adavanced stats.....here's your answer.

 

[TT1]

To every person that has EVER asked why i don't put alot of stock into adavanced stats.....here's your answer.

Thats always how he posts, he basically always talks about high danger shots/chances which is a valid point, except he constructs his posts in a weird way . HD shots/chances is a very important stat.

 

[dubey]

What about Rielly+ for Rielly plus a small plus?

That's basically what OP is asking for

Sounds like a done deal

 

[major major]

Nice to see everyone still blaming everything on Hunwick. The shot chart shows that it's really Rielly's issues causing trouble, not Hunwick.

 

[oilerbear]

To every person that has EVER asked why i don't put alot of stock into adavanced stats.....here's your answer.

do you know were my HD scoring came from!

WATCHING!

DID YOU HERE THAT YOU HATE BASED MATHAPHOBIC PERSON!

Wathcing the pure violence of the Clarke; Leach Stoughton; Flin Flon bombers.

I watched them as a very young man.

The picture of the violence used to defend and attack the net was entrenched.

So when I became a visitor of lowetides site.

The violent game play of HD penetration was what I watched.
I started to look at High danger penetration.
My definition of tough come from there.

Go to the net
Defend the net..

What became clear was that most of the goal success of every type of shot was that same penetration of the High danger area.

it took me almost 8 years before most of the analytics community got it.

There are still some out there that could not see the difference in shots.

Almost all get it now.

My wife was an editor in the sun chain and now post media.
She was taught in school to write to a grade 5 level to get a large audience.
A couple grades lower for sports fans.
At a kindergarten level for Toronto and MTL.
these are the ones finally getting it.

As you start to here MSM defining the High danger area on T.V.
I take pride in this!

I SEE YOU DO NOT GET IT!
YET!

I have allways been one to Watch video of players.
Watch video of game play.
See if the math matched viewing of the player.
Breaking down player actions and mechanics to see were the variance may occur.

Anyone who does not partner:
1.scouting;
2. Video review;
3. Player mechanic analysis;
4. Best option game theory;
5. Result driven analytics.

are not doing the fans a favour.

People talk about the intangibles.
Intuition
Charater.

it is all simple B......

have played at the top level of a sport.

those things are about recognizing your teammates tendencies and eliminating the team from recognizing them.

It can be controlled thru video; game charting; analytics; On ice or field cue calls.

 

[oilerbear]

Nice to see everyone still blaming everything on Hunwick. The shot chart shows that it's really Rielly's issues causing trouble, not Hunwick.

Reilly is still one of the worst in the game.

Cup winners have:
1. HD area coach
babcock- he has a whole root tree of HD disciples.

2. Top 10 HD save % goalie.
TOR had 1.
they traded #10 bernier to ANA for a 5th round pick.
After they paid a 1st and 2nd for #26 Andersson and paid him 5M

3. 3+ top 60 HD SH/60 D
the last 1 was gunnarsson.

Reilly Hunwick and Gardiner are just brutal.

4. 2 top 90 Even production lines or 3 top 150 Even production lines.
Marner; Nylander; Mathews top 40
JVR top 90
Bozak top 150

5. +ve dif Special teams.

 

[Maukkis]

Thats always how he posts, he basically always talks about high danger shots/chances which is a valid point, except he constructs his posts in a weird way . HD shots/chances is a very important stat.

I don't like arguments that are purely based on statistics, especially when you're proving something about a single player (the usual defenseman HSCA comparision he makes ignores way too many factors to be valid), but that's one thing you can't argue with - HSCA is a thing. What Oilerbear posted in this thread looks somewhat logical for me.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Rielly is entering his fifth year post draft, and still makes questionnable decisions quite often. I firmly believe he is a fantastic skater with above average offensive IQ, but his defensive game game is STILL a work in progress, and not top-pair worthy at this point. He relies on his skating to cover himself because his decision making/IQ is lackluster in his own zone, and while not weak, he isint a physical presence. Add to that the fact that he is no PPQB with amazing vision and that his shot is not a threat at all, I find it hard to see a sure-fire #1. Out of all the leafs players, he is the most overrated.

And the problem with the projections of the leafs defence some fans make (which often includes Gardiner, Rielly, Zaitsev in the top 4 and Carrick on the bottom pair as the players who will stick long term) is that none of those players I would call solid on the defense side of things. Some of them (Gardiner) I would even call disasters on that front. You cant win if all your defensemens are offense first. They need to fix this ASAP.

Those questionable decisions are being made against the best players on the other teams though.

I firmly believe that a lot of Rielly's issue are the awful support he gets and the way he's been utilized.

Rielly might never be a # 1 Dman but he's certainly already a top pairing offensive Dman. Problem is that he's being used as more of a shutdown D and not an offensive Dman.

Give him lots of offensive zone starts, minimal PK time but lots of PP time like how Klingberg, Ghost, Ekblad are utilized and people would be raving about him. Shattenkirk, Krug, Yandle are vet options who are utilized in a similar fashion.

Having decent goaltending, forwards who are strong on the puck and a D partner who isn't waiver wire material also wouldn't hurt.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Reilly is still one of the worst in the game.

Cup winners have:
1. HD area coach
babcock- he has a whole root tree of HD disciples.

2. Top 10 HD save % goalie.
TOR had 1.
they traded #10 bernier to ANA for a 5th round pick.
After they paid a 1st and 2nd for #26 Andersson and paid him 5M

3. 3+ top 60 HD SH/60 D
the last 1 was gunnarsson.

Reilly Hunwick and Gardiner are just brutal.

4. 2 top 90 Even production lines or 3 top 150 Even production lines.
Marner; Nylander; Mathews top 40
JVR top 90
Bozak top 150

5. +ve dif Special teams.

Same ****, different year. We heard it all before. Kessel and Phaneuf are the problem, can't win with them. Bernier isn't a starter, can't win with him. Doesn't take long for you guys to come in and say no, actually they were good why did you trade them? lol

 

[Commander Clueless]

Is this like reverse dog years or something?

Isn't this like year 10?

Year 2 of the Re-Rebuild.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

leafs need to trade forwards for D, not D for D

 

[vipernsx]

OK, let his own fellow leaf fans criticise the OP

Not even a leaf fan, trading Reilly a very bad idea. So many rookies on your team (like jets) bound to have some bad defensive nights.

Yeah just like Philly should dump that Provorov guy with the mistakes he's making.

 

[domiwroze]

Leafs are rebuilding since 2003-2004. They got to the Playoff once since then and it was the Lockout year (2012-2013).

Re-Re-ReBuild.