Player Discussion Replacing Jacob Markstrom

[Horse McHindu]

Anything under 6 then you resign him. More than 6 million, and then you have to consider other options. I don't think Demko is completely ready to take over as the #1 just yet, and Markstrom is too good not to try to resign. He's been our MVP for a few years now. Benning has got to find a way to keep both, while avoiding losing one to Seattle in the expansion draft, and somehow being below cap.

Trade Sutter, Schaller, Eriksson, Baertschi, Stecher for anything you can get if possible, to try and create cap space to sign our star players.

As far as finding a way to keep both goalies go, I’ve heard that teams will often give up a 2nd rounder to other teams as a way to incentive said team to not select such and such player (this is just what I’ve heard......I didn’t follow the Vegas expansion draft that closely). If that’s actually true, then the Canucks could do this with Seattle right? (Ie give up a 2nd so that we can keep both of our goalies).

 

[hookshott]

Honestly wouldn’t resign Markstrom. I mean he’s great and all but this team is already cap strapped I’d rather roll with the cheaper younger goalie in Demko. We’d be able to sign him to a bridge once his ELC is up and by the time his bridge is done I’m sure most of the bad contracts will be off the books.

Totally agree. Simply looking at the stats for this season: Markstrom 2.66 / .919 & Demko 2.92/ .907. Not a lot of difference...about .25 of a goal per game so 1 goal difference over 4 games plus, obviously, Markstrom is much older. We do not have the cap space to sign Markstrom to a large contract that he will expect...if we do, we place ourselves in a position to impact negatively on the skaters we can afford, and then witness his GAA climb. Demko will be fine...let's go with him and not worry about the expansion draft.
Then again, we are dealing with the thought process (?) of Jim Benning so you know we will sign him to a ridiculous contract!

 

[PavelBure10]

As far as finding a way to keep both goalies go, I’ve heard that teams will often give up a 2nd rounder to other teams as a way to incentive said team to not select such and such player (this is just what I’ve heard......I didn’t follow the Vegas expansion draft that closely). If that’s actually true, then the Canucks could do this with Seattle right? (Ie give up a 2nd so that we can keep both of our goalies).

I guess it can vary. I looked up Las Vegas trades during the expansion draft, and I found this,

Golden Knights acquire 6th-round pick from Sabres

GM George McPhee said the Golden Knights were choosing between two players when the Sabres offered a sixth-round pick to go with a certain player. That ended up being forward William Carrier, who the Golden Knights get from Buffalo along with a sixth-round pick.


.... So with a little luck, maybe Benning can sway Francis from taking Markstrom/Demko by offering a 6th rounder or something comparable. A 6th rounder and a player like Stecher could be fairly valuable to a brand new roster.
Who knows, I guess it all depends on how badly they would want our goalies, and what it's worth to protect them. I could see a second rounder the asking price easily.

 

[Melvin]

I have Markstrom as #2 in the NHL right now in GSAA, only Bishop rates higher.

(I do all situations unlike some other charts you may see which are 5v5 only.)

 

[Bleach Clean]

I have Markstrom as #2 in the NHL right now in GSAA, only Bishop rates higher.

(I do all situations unlike some other charts you may see which are 5v5 only.)

Can you post the work up?

I wouldn't be surprised by this achievement for Markstrom. He has been all-world.

 

[Melvin]

Can you post the work up?

I wouldn't be surprised by this achievement for Markstrom. He has been all-world.

I compute the probability that any particular shot is a goal based on a regression model of:

- situation (5v5, 5v4, etc.)
- type of shot (whether it was tipped, etc.)
- distance from net
- whether or not it was a "sequence" shot (i.e. there was a previous shot faced in the last 3 seconds.)

I can then estimate the amount of goals a goal is expected to allow based on the profile of shots faced and subtract from that the actual goals allowed to get the total.

The results are posted here as Goals Saved Above Average

Markstrom at +12 is second to only Bishop right now.

Usually John Gibson dominates this metric but his numbers are not so good this year.

I saw something on Twitter that had him as 5th or something but that was only including 5v5 play. I don't know why analysts discard all special teams instead of just making it a factor in the model. It's annoying.

 

[Regal]

Bobrovsky is making $11.5m this season and is on a $10m caphit for the next 7 years.

Binnington 32 starts.
Lehner head case tag.
Gibson and Hellebuyck sold RFA years.

Only Fluery and Bishop are UFA comparables. I don’t want Markstrom on a 7 year deal and very likely neither do the Canucks, so if you can’t run it out you can’t drive down the cap hit.

Bobrovsky is an outlier with 2 Vezinas than has no bearing on Markstrom. The goalie market doesn't operate like skaters where a big deal sets a new market for everyone. Both Fleury and Bishop have substantial playoff records, and Bishop signed for under 5. I have no idea why they're the only comparables when Varlamov and Lehner just signed as UFAs for 5. There's really no reason to believe that Markstrom would get anything over the mid 6 range even for shorter term unless he actually wins something this year. I would bet significant money on him not getting over 6.5

 

[Regal]

Anything under 6 then you resign him. More than 6 million, and then you have to consider other options. I don't think Demko is completely ready to take over as the #1 just yet, and Markstrom is too good not to try to resign. He's been our MVP for a few years now. Benning has got to find a way to keep both, while avoiding losing one to Seattle in the expansion draft, and somehow being below cap.

Trade Sutter, Schaller, Eriksson, Baertschi, Stecher for anything you can get if possible, to try and create cap space to sign our star players.

It's really pathetic that this team needs to make cap moves given where it's been since Benning arrived.